Gold Cup 2022

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,759
*** Can a mod please amend the title to "Ayr Gold Cup 2022"? ***


I managed to find some info online for the race:

Entries close August 9

First confirmation Aug 23

5-day decs September 12

Penalties to apply after August 13

Weights published August 17


I still think Great Ambassador will be the one to beat but I'm really disappointed that the prize money remains lower than pre-pandemic. The race is worth £150k, which is okay, but this race was once the richest handicap in Europe.

I'm not sure there will be a silver and/or bronze race this year.
 
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I'm sure I used to be able to do this before the upgrade to the site. I think either the upgrade has taken away my moderator permissions, or our new landlord is doing it now.
 
Decs are out.

29 horses rated 100+
21 95 to 99
28 90 to 94

They are certainly giving O'Meara a chance.

Summerghand dropped to 98
Nomadic empire dropped to 95. That is a nice rating if it gets in.
 
If you are on Twitter Euro and want to see what price silver samurai is for Saturday and ayr gold cup,go to novelty@willhill.
 
I was a wee bit annoyed to even see Great Ambassador engaged on Saturday, let alone seemingly well-fancied. I'd have been seriously p1ssed off if he'd gone and won. I'm not sure why, for one of the hottest and most valuable handicaps of the year, you'd pick up a penalty for the sake of £29k and risk losing out on £77k. Unless, they think the penalty won't matter, which entries in the Haydock Sprint and Ascot Champions' Sprint might imply.
 
Maybe they thought a bird in the hand was worth two in the bush, but the bird flew out of the hand when he couldn’t be kept straight.
 
It was a funny one - I wanted him to run well but not win because of Ayr but I backed him at 4s and I'd lost too much on Korker at Bev so I could have done with a win on Saturday. Not winning because of a weak jockey probably the best scenario ultimately. Just have to look for a bit of luck with the draw.
 
Trainers not thinking of us punters again?

I am keen on Fresh anyway for Ayr. If they take him out (Great Ambassador) makes everything a bit easier.
 
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Obviously I don't want him to run at Haydock for financial reasons but I mean what chance does he realistically have on Saturday? I suppose we could get another Jumby but that's unlikely in a strong race.
 
Great Ambassador long time ante-post fav for the Ayr Gold Cup. After running last week at Newmarket his trainer has decided to take in Haydock as well. Words really do fail me.
 
Same here. It just makes me think he isn't a target trainer.

In his Weekender column he says a few of the big guns aren't going for it so he might 'have a shot at it' after 'throwing away' his race last weekend.

This weekend's race, for me, is totally different. I wondered if last Saturday's run was about picking up some reasonable place money for a gallop and that maybe they didn't mind his not winning but maybe they really fancy he can win at Ayr and are happy to pick up a penalty. As an owner/trainer, I would be happier trading off a penalty for winning a £350k G1 race than a £52k one, as last week's was, when the Ayr race is worth 'only' £175k.
 
In his Weekender column, Walker says GA doesn't go for the race because, "as I said in last week's column, [he] isn't quite right at the moment".

What he actually said was, "It wasn't the fast ground that ruled Great Ambassador out of last Saturday's Sprint Cup at Haydock, he wasn't quite right.

"I'd love to run him [sic] the Bengough at Ascot..."

No mention of any intention to run him at Ayr.

Now he says he fancies Popmaster to run a big race.

Anyroads...

Here's my synopsis, such as it is, for tomorrow's race (you can see I'm bouncing off walls here...):

A mark of 92 is on the low side for making the cut in this race so it’s maybe not as classy as usual although ten rated 100 and more, plus a top OR of 109 suggests there’s no shortage of quality. 123-125 on adjusted RPRs is usually round about top rated so it’s maybe up to scratch. It’s still the kind of race for long-term plots so I’m sticking with the approach that landed me the Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup. That makes the following short-list material (in order in the table above): Bielsa (10/1), Gulliver (14/1), Commanche Falls (12/1), Summerghand (12/1), Pendleton (33/1, likely to drift) and Tinto (25/1, ditto) but I need to have enough on Khanjar (9/2) to cover all of those as I think he might just improve past them all. I was quite taken by his last win. And I’ve taken 50 on the exchange Volatile Analyst. That’s just too big for where he sits in the table trained by a Scot and a CD winner. The first four I mention above dutch at about 9/4, which isn’t great so I might just settle for a decent win bet on Khanjar, smaller on Summerghand and go for small each-ways on the longshots.
 
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Pop master was 2nd in the wokingham and then I dont think he got the best of runs next time.
I keep looking at it but i havent backed it.
 
Doing what DO is doing isn't the worst idea although Pendleton won't be winning anything he's 90 on the machine.

Have 4 quid on the Khanjar and 2 quid on the rst and any of them win you are well in pocket.

Of course picking your own 6

4 quid on Khanjar, p/l 10.85

I'll go for
Summerghand 16.83
Fivethousandtoone 35.53
Popmaster 13.09
Juan Les Pins 89.76
Zarzyni 65.5

which of course means none of them will win
 
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I’m sure that, if I looked back a year, I probably wrote on here ‘ please tell me to ignore the Ayr Gold Cup next year’.
 
This is a first time handicap for Vadream who has been running in Class 1 (and winning a Group 3) all the time and who was a good second to Sam Maximus in Listed race at HQ last time. As long as there’s still some juice in the ground must have a live chance.
 
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