Goodwood Golden Mile

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,754
One of my favourite races of the entire year.

In the Bunbury Cup thread I mentioned Azano:

Desert Orchid said:
This prompted me to check the Goodwood race to see when the weights came out. Turns out they're already out so I checked the O'Meara entries and decided Azano was worth a pop at 66/1 (5 places). Ex-French, which he does well with, and working his mark down. Currently #27 in the weights so likely to make the cut (max 20). It just strikes me as a potential O'Meara plot.
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I've now backed this up with Noble Dynasty at 16/1. His penalty will almost guarantee him a run and when his new marked is released tomorrow I reckon he'll be quite well in under his penalty with the potential for lots of improvement.
 
Blue for you is another of O'Mearas and if you can forgive Rhoscolyn for running so bad in the Bunbury cup hes another.
The one I put up on my blog though is OUZO 33/1 seems over priced.
 
Just googled Golden Mile to see what was about and up came https://www.olbg.com/blogs/golden-mile-handicap-preview-trends-analysis . Not familiar with them, but some interesting stats - here’s a sample, but not sure what they mean:


Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,12,17,1,3,2,1,2,7,13,16,13,2,(2,11),3,1,11,(1,8),6,1,13

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

20 / 20 (74%) - No bigger than 25/1
20 / 20 (80%) - Not placed once in the class
20 / 20 (87%) - Not 1-2 runs in class
19 / 20 (70%) - No bigger than 16/1 (LTO)
19 / 20 (75%) - Last win no bigger than 9/1
19 / 20 (84%) - No older than 6yo
19 / 20 (87%) - Last win in 7+ field
19 / 20 (88%) - Ran over less than 9f (LTO)
18 / 20 (44%) - Drawn no higher than 9
18 / 20 (85%) - Placed on the ground
17 / 20 (79%) - Last win was in Class 2-3
17 / 20 (80%) - No more than -4lb vs ave OR
17 / 20 (81%) - No more +4lbs vs ave weight
16 / 20 (80%) - 3+ Starts on the ground
 
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The trouble is the percentage of runners.
20/20 74% of runners 3/4 of runners start under 25/1 so they are going to win more often.
The only stat above that's interesting is the one drawn no higher than 9.
Luck in running is a big thing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One of my favourite races of the entire year.

In the Bunbury Cup thread I mentioned Azano:



I've now backed this up with Noble Dynasty at 16/1. His penalty will almost guarantee him a run and when his new marked is released tomorrow I reckon he'll be quite well in under his penalty with the potential for lots of improvement.
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I gave you the benefit of the doubt in the Bunbury and the Magnet but your rating were so far off the mark both winners were rated to finish almost last by you:blink: Can't wait o see the pile of shite you no doubt will post for this event

But as this is your favourite race of the year I'll give you the benefit of the doubt again and put my last 50p ew on Noble Dynasty 16/1EW although it does feel like I am having a death wish as your selections are almost always shite,
 
Fist, I'm sure DO can stand up for himself but I don't think your post is necessary. We all know DO from a long way back and are grateful for his sharing his figures and thoughts. I can only think you may have quaffed a few before posting.
 
Colin said:
Fist, I'm sure DO can stand up for himself but I don't think your post is necessary. We all know DO from a long way back and are grateful for his sharing his figures and thoughts. I can only think you may have quaffed a few before posting.
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:lol:

I love the way he keeps posting after I post something. Half the time I only post to see how long it takes for him to add something - which I can't see because I have him on ignore but people quote him often enough for me to get a flavour - which shows him up for the kind of person he is.

The Chinese have a saying: if you wait by the river long enough, you'll eventually see the bodies of your enemies float by.

The only thing that disappoints me, I have to say, is how few people are prepared to challenge him when he goes into insult-aggression-mode with the posters he has chosen to actively dislike.

I've met people like him all through my life and they all have one thing in common.
 
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Colin said:
Fist, I'm sure DO can stand up for himself but I don't think your post is necessary. We all know DO from a long way back and are grateful for his sharing his figures and thoughts. I can only think you may have quaffed a few before posting.
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Yes, there’s no need for it, tan, and all it does is tarnish you. One of the best things about Talking Horses is how people discuss differences of opinion civilly without that discussion degenerating into a slanging match. It’s up to us all to keep it like that.
 
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Colin said:
Fist, I'm sure DO can stand up for himself but I don't think your post is necessary. We all know DO from a long way back and are grateful for his sharing his figures and thoughts. I can only think you may have quaffed a few before posting.
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Though he may not express it well, he does have a point though, Col.
DO fires many arrows, at targets all over the place, and it does get tiresome avoiding them.
 
You can critisise a posters approach to betting, but Tanlics comment to DO is obviously insulting.

A shame as Tanlic and DO are both posters I enjoy reading apart from when Tanlic throws an insult at DO..

We all get things right and wrong from time to time. Lets not get too personal.

Barjon is right btw.

We do have the option to ignore a poster so we don't see their posts if they are annoying us so much.
 
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reet hard said:
Though he may not express it well, he does have a point though, Col.
DO fires many arrows, at targets all over the place, and it does get tiresome avoiding them.
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Don’t quite understand that, reet. DO’s strategy is to take several runners in big handicaps measuring his success by the overall profit/loss and not the performance of any individual horse (correct me if I’m wrong, DO). It’s not an approach that appeals to me, but neither do big handicaps mostly.
 
barjon said:
Don’t quite understand that, reet. DO’s strategy is to take several runners in big handicaps measuring his success by the overall profit/loss and not the performance of any individual horse (correct me if I’m wrong, DO). It’s not an approach that appeals to me, but neither do big handicaps mostly.
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I do indeed and so do several others on here but they don't get singled out by specific posters for abuse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
...

I've now backed this up with Noble Dynasty at 16/1. His penalty will almost guarantee him a run and when his new marked is released tomorrow I reckon he'll be quite well in under his penalty with the potential for lots of improvement.
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Noble Dynasty has been raised 9lbs for last week's win so will be 6lbs well in under his 3lbs penalty. This could be another Franklin D...
 
barjon said:
Don’t quite understand that, reet. DO’s strategy is to take several runners in big handicaps measuring his success by the overall profit/loss and not the performance of any individual horse (correct me if I’m wrong, DO). It’s not an approach that appeals to me, but neither do big handicaps mostly.
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BJ,
I frequent this forum for intelligent and informed discussion of horseracing, and freely admit I've no time for those here to burnish their ego.
 
reet hard said:
BJ,
I frequent this forum for intelligent and informed discussion of horseracing, and freely admit I've no time for those here to burnish their ego.
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Didn't you threaten to leave the forum a couple of months ago, leave, have buddy tanlic complain on the forum when no-one cared, tanlic leave in solidarity, only for you both to return the following week, where again no one cared.
And you are questioning Desert Orchid's ego?
 
If I tell you I'm good at this game, probably you will say I'm boasting.

But if I tell you I'm not good, you'll know I'm lying.

I have no time for people who continuously post something that clearly is not working for them

In this game you keep what is working for you and discard what is not or you will go bust very quickly.

Please someone tell me DO's rating are working for him because I am f**ked if I can see it.... so why keep doing it unless you're completely nuts?

Colin!! you may be grateful to read shyte frankly I find someone saying look at me I'm a genius, who is actually clueless, boring.

I told him it was beyond his comprehension to realise what it takes to win a Champion Hurdle a few years ago and my reward for being correct was for the childish twat to block me.
He is still posting rubbish like Tommy's Oscar which I said would think he'd gone into ordbit like the rubbish he posted in previous years

You can praise him all you like but it does not change the fact he is one dreadful judge.

I have had running battles with my Pal LUKE who loves to attack me but I would never ever block him or anyone else..........if you can't take critisism and only want praise you come to the wrong guy.
 
HawkWing said:
Didn't you threaten to leave the forum a couple of months ago, leave, have buddy tanlic complain on the forum when no-one cared, tanlic leave in solidarity, only for you both to return the following week, where again no one cared.
And you are questioning Desert Orchid's ego?
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You're just a wee **** stirrer Hawk but you can also be quite an intellegent poster so you in my book you're ok and welcome your criticism.

I convinced Reet he should come back in a PM so blame me.......You know you love too:D I don't get you ego thing with Reet he's avery humble person IMO
 
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Tanlic said:
You're just a wee **** stirrer Hawk but you can also be quite an intellegent poster so you in my book you're ok and welcome your criticism.

I convinced Reet he should come back in a PM so blame me.......You know you love too:D I don't get you ego thing with Reet he's avery humble person IMO
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HW's maybe sore bacause I've blanked him - for lack of integrity, like the only other 2 to ever to feature on my ignore list.
Now, can we please get back to discussing horse racing - truthfully?
 
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Whoputfiftyinyou is surely another with a good chance. Jimi Hendrix franked the form of the Ascot race nicely.
 
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