I've rated this year's race through Slim Pickings running to the same figure as last year.
Comply Or Die has run a few pounds better than at Newcastle and pretty much in line with his 2005 Sun Alliance form. However, the likes of Trabolgan and L'Ami subsequently showed further improvement and COD won with, to my eye, a fair bit in hand. I have him on 156+. If he's now on 152, he'll almost certainly find himself off 155/156, possibly as much as 158 in next year's race, once the handicapper factors in Aintree form. This means he'll have top weight, unless the likes of Denman is entered, but off 156 or more Comply Or Die will have no chance, unless he can run to at least 170 over course and distance. It would be a huge ask.
Similarly, the other principals will be weighted out of it, rightly or wrongly.
Bewley's Berry and Cloudy Lane have now proved they aren't up to it, as had L'Ami and Kelami and others in previous attempts.
I reckon we need to look away from the National for next year's winner. The UK handicapper has now latched on to the true value of the better Irish chases and is hammering the principals when they come over here. The only one he couldn't get a handle on this year was King Johns Castle and that was the one that almost won it for Ireland. He took a big risk with his rating of Snowy Morning but told us in advance that he'd got that one wrong.
To me, the key prerequisites will provide next year's winner:
First and foremost, you need a well handicapped entry, which you won't get if you go for one of this year's first four. Then it needs to have shown form in top 3m+ races. If you find one that also gets in with less than 11-0 that's a bonus, in my opinion, rather than a necessity.
