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Grand National

I thought I better post now or I will be accused of after timing 😆. Two horses that I would consider good value bets for the GN are running in the BobbyJo today, so much so I have had a small each way double on both of them. They are wait for it 😃, two of Elliott's string Gerri Colombe (GN 100/1) and Stellar Story (GN 50/1).
 
Stellar Story and Gerri Colombe were both on my original system list of qualifiers which I posted on Feb 3rd.

Banbridge 50/1
Champ Kiely 66/1
Firefox 50/1
Gerri Colombe 100/1
Grangeclare West 25/1
Grey Dawning 50/1
Haiti Cooleurs 16/1
Handstands 66/1
I Am Maximus 12/1
Lecky Watson 50/1
Monty's Star 25/1
Stellar Story 50/1
Western Fold 50/1

The BobbyJo has worked out well for my antepost GN bets, because when I looked to do doubles with Eight,Eight,Eight (I think you can only do doubles abroad on the same horse with them (and maybe only while you are in Portugal and Spain))

After last year and not doing the BobbyJo winner, I was determined to include that horse in my bets. So I did the 3 horses on my list that ran in the BobbyJo, If I had not found the winner from them I would have needed to add that horse to the above list.

The BobbyJo race could not have gone better, I ended up doubling only Grangeclare West, because doubling the other two made no sense as paddy were offering 5 places at the above prices on the other two, so I did ew singles).

The only horses my system allows me to add are horses that run in either Ryanair or Gold Cup. But I might add the Brown as I have already done Oscars Brother. Hopefully there won't be many more. I will look to go NRNB 5 places as soon as it's available (365, March 7th, last year) on all other qualifiers.
 
Maximus has won over Grangeclare West twice this season, they're not too far weight-wise, for me Max is is still a notch better. But they are close. Will be interesting.

Stellar Story's issue is his family - Shantou, his sons have run 16 times in a GN since 2014: UPU8PP0UPFU0PPPP
I might have a small bet once NRNB is available.
 
StarryNight said:
Stellar Story's issue is his family - Shantou, his sons have run 16 times in a GN since 2014: UPU8PP0UPFU0PPPP
I might have a small bet once NRNB is available.
Click to expand...

There's a reasonable argument that volumes tell a story. In this case, potentially an accurate one, and to be repeated. So, not knocking you for pointing it out, Starry.

But herein lies what (I think) is the (potentially misleading) danger with stats like these (and we see them all the time in different formats and applied to varying, specific cases)....

For those 16...

How many had no chance anyway.
How many were 'inconvenienced' in some way during the race (ie, they might have finished, or finished closer).
How many were potential Grade 1 runners when they lined up.
How many got their ground.
Who were they trained by.
How were they campaigned (for the current season and, perhaps, for their lives).
Did they get to the race in perfect shape.

Etc etc etc

So yeah, volumes can tell a story. But to fully believe it, you probably need to have read it and understood it.
 
I believe no one really knows who is going to win the GN, except for Ian perhaps 😃, but Grangeclare West is likely to run his race. He was 3rd last year off 11st 8lbs, so weight might catch him out. But he still looks a solid ew 5 place bet. I suspect he will now not take up his Gold cup entry.
 
Alex said:
I believe no one really knows who is going to win the GN, except for Ian perhaps 😃, but Grangeclare West is likely to run his race. He was 3rd last year off 11st 8lbs, so weight might catch him out. But he still looks a solid ew 5 place bet. I suspect he will now not take up his Gold cup entry.
Click to expand...

He's not out of it in the Gold Cup.
 
Steeplechasing said:
I'd back a previous Grand National winner, but not a placed horse. Too many of them return with a bad memory of Aintree.
Click to expand...
I would add Crisp, probably the best horse that has ran in the National, but because of the weight it was carrying got beat by Red Rum. The prize money and consequently overall quality of horse, has changed a lot since then.
 
chaumi said:
There's a reasonable argument that volumes tell a story. In this case, potentially an accurate one, and to be repeated. So, not knocking you for pointing it out, Starry.

But herein lies what (I think) is the (potentially misleading) danger with stats like these (and we see them all the time in different formats and applied to varying, specific cases)....

For those 16...

How many had no chance anyway.
How many were 'inconvenienced' in some way during the race (ie, they might have finished, or finished closer).
How many were potential Grade 1 runners when they lined up.
How many got their ground.
Who were they trained by.
How were they campaigned (for the current season and, perhaps, for their lives).
Did they get to the race in perfect shape.

Etc etc etc

So yeah, volumes can tell a story. But to fully believe it, you probably need to have read it and understood it.
Click to expand...
Hi, yes, definitely a lot of other things need to be taken into account, but so does this one, I suppose, just another item to consider.
 

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