greatwood

He looked a bit one paced to me last year when I backed him a couple of times and to me seemed like ge was crying out for a step up in trip. Moon Dice was very impressive at Galway and had his race won a long way out - he looks progressive and Luke has heard nothing but positives about him since which is good enough for me. My biggest concern would be the rain that fell last night - hoping the ground dries out or least gets no worse.
 
He ran a personal best (about 12lb better) at Sandown last time making him a 140+ performer. Off 10-9 that is enough to just about make him just about best rated at the weights, but it’s competitive with a lot queuing up behind him. On Sandown running he just about deserves to be favourite.

The 5yo Olofi is rated about the same and is a much bigger price (but hasn’t actually won a race since landing a novice hurdle at Cheltenham a couple of years ago). I doubt I’ll have a bet in this.
 
Going to have a saver on Olofi at 25/1 - he was fifth in what looked like a better renewal off 2lb higher. Tom George is firing in the winners but still very very hopeful of Moon Dice.
 
Patesse looks well clear on the figures for me and fits most of the trends
5/1 looks very generous
 
To repeat what I know about Moon Dice.The trainer absolutely loves the horse,he has been working well.The Fighting Fifth was seriously considered as an alternative.Connections are travelling in force-they are more then hopeful.
JP offered them 350K for the horse but was turned down.
Ladbrokes,Powers and Boyles have been keen to duck the horse since betting started on this race.
Galway was the masterplan but the beaten favourite that day has won two good races since and is going to get a Champion Hurdle campaign.
I have backed him to pay for a good family Christmas but not to the same extent as the last day.
 
The going today would have been close to good - based on times - and nothing like as soft as Pateese won on at Sandown last week. Needs further or softer, imo, and wouldn't have him on my mind for this. Ground certainly shouldn't inconvenience Moon Dice, who's a danger to everything, and ought to be fav, imo.
However, the quirky but talented Sanctuaire could keep the Nicholls/Walsh bandwagon rolling. Travelling OK in this when fell 2 out last year, only 4lbs higher tomorrow, yet appears to have improved appreciably since, and should get the good tow which is essential to his chances. Top weights do quite well in the race, too, and 14/1 is just too big.
 
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Sanctuaries state of mind will be crucial.Olofi will be my saver at 25s and maybe I will throw in Sanctuaire in combination forecasts and tricasts.
 
LUKE said:
To repeat what I know about Moon Dice.The trainer absolutely loves the horse,he has been working well.The Fighting Fifth was seriously considered as an alternative.Connections are travelling in force-they are more then hopeful.
JP offered them 350K for the horse but was turned down.
Ladbrokes,Powers and Boyles have been keen to duck the horse since betting started on this race.
Galway was the masterplan but the beaten favourite that day has won two good races since and is going to get a Champion Hurdle campaign.
I have backed him to pay for a good family Christmas but not to the same extent as the last day.
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I'm surprised Powers are still 7/1. I'd imagine he will be a horrific result for Irish layers tomorrow.
 
Anyone see the interview with Alan Kings assistant at Exeter when they talked of Araldur and he seemed ok and when they mentioned the Greatwood he beemed enthusiasm about Kumbaschwar?
 
A horse that tends to travel well in his races and one that I hope will arrive spot on time is Inspector Clouseau overpriced at 22/1 IMHO.
The trainer already has had a winner and the 3lbs from the jockeys allowance could make the difference.
 
Pateese's win at Sandown was far more about speed than stamina imo, and I wouldn't have any concerns with regards the ground. Just a 5 lb penalty for that makes him still well handicapped and the 6/1 on offer is too big I think. He's obviously improved since and conditions didn't appear a problem when second in quite a good race behind Via Galilei at Newbury last season.

The 2.55 is often one of the strongest early-season handicaps and whatever happens the form should be followed but Rangitoto looks well in off 119. He comfortably beat a horse that has subsequently finished second in the Persian War, whilst the form has further substance courtesy of handicap wins of the third and fourth. Ladbrokes are best poriced 5's and also standout 6's on Pateese. Make them pay with a double too.
 
Patesse still looks to have a bit in hand- in a very interesting looking race. I will be on him at 6's but I would fear 1/2 at bigger prices namely Jack Cool/Moon Dice.
 
I'll be chancing Pateese's stalemate Alazan at 33/1 - on my figures he's 9lb well in, including the jockey's 3lb claim. A couple of negatives, he pulls hard so hopefully a faster pace will help him settle. Not sure yet if stamina is an issue because of the way he's been pulling for his head so will be looking to trade in running as they approach the 3rd last, where hopefully he'll be in contention and still travelling well.
 
Pateese's Sandown win came on proper soft ground against not much opposition. Against a better field, and on g/s ground over the same c/d, he had struggled for pace only 8 months earlier. Stayed forever on the flat, and I'll stick to my guns until he proves different.
Having said all that, PN has withdrawn a good ground horse from the first - because of the going? :)
 
swedish chef said:
I'll be chancing Pateese's stalemate Alazan at 33/1 - on my figures he's 9lb well in, including the jockey's 3lb claim. A couple of negatives, he pulls hard so hopefully a faster pace will help him settle. Not sure yet if stamina is an issue because of the way he's been pulling for his head so will be looking to trade in running as they approach the 3rd last, where hopefully he'll be in contention and still travelling well.
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Taken place-only at 12.5/1 on Alazan. Here's hoping.
 
Two antepost plays ew: Third Intention 25/1, Olofi 25/1. Olofi for reasons stated elsewhere on thread, while Third Intention has a very respectable record at Cheltenham and his Ascot prep (travelled nicely before blowing up) should have him spot on for today. Think he will stay on strongly into a place at least off a good gallop but v afraid of this Moon Dice fello I must admit :ninja:. Gl with all selections :)
 
I am reading the form very differently,
Patesse at the weights 10lenghts better than Moon Dice,
will see in some minutes.
 
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