Guineas

Aiden has deemed it unnecessary to run any other horse other than City of Troy.

It could be he intends to make his own running which could be a very smart move.
 
Tanlic said:
Aiden has deemed it unnecessary to run any other horse other than City of Troy.

It could be he intends to make his own running which could be a very smart move.
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It's academic,imo - he'll blind them for speed,either way.
 
Not sure what to expect tomorrow. Cot looked superb in the filmed gallop but only the work rider knows how it felt. I hope he storms away in the final furlong and is a top winner. Nervous about the race already but I always am before the guineas. The flat starts tomorrow for me then I'm going to chester next week . Brilliant.
 
If Aiden and Ryan couldn't tell the horse had gone backwards what chance have we got? Absolutely gutted...........lost too much and never even got a run for my money.........time for a sabbatical
 
He’s run like an absolute drain. Bit like Auguste Rodin last year. They do talk them up because they’re in the business of making stallions so the all important quotes are wheeled out. But that run was dire. He hasnt really grown on like you’d hoped and listening to the talk about the rest of his siblings not training on started to sound alarm bells in my head. So I looked around and though Notable Speech looked lovely in the prelims. (Just gutted I got 12s and he went out to 26s on Betfair...should have backed him again)
But wow! This is a very decent winner and will be hard to beat over a mile.

Back to the drawing board for COT but they’ve revived them before so I wouldn’t know.
 
Don't you think he looked as if he'd run up a bit light behind the saddle?

I think the paddock experts were afraid to say he didn't look impressive.
 
One is feeling somewhat justified about having reservations about Justify's stock having better records at two than three thus far.

But tbh, never mind breeding, one look at him in the paddock told you his best days might already be behind him - Mill Reef was a bit of a short arse, but he was. the exception, not the rule.
 
Just watched the race again on +1.

Take the winner out and we'd be raving about good a winner the Hannon horse was. Inisherin ran a terrific race relative to its odds. No money back for it but I got a wee shudder about three out.
 
Eleanora Duse said:
Don't you think he looked as if he'd run up a bit light behind the saddle?

I think the paddock experts were afraid to say he didn't look impressive.
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No I thought he looked good although they made a big deal about how big he wasn’t which was then contradicted by AOB saying he was 16.1 which is average height for a 3yo colt. He moved beautifully to post, stroking the ground. Watching the re-run he looked very laboured as Notable Speech sprinted away. Regardless of them over-hyping, this run really was too bad to be true. Like AR last year.
 
I reckon there's more to this than meets the eye and expect we will know soon....this is a very very good horse something was amiss
 
I think there's less - his sire never raced at two yet his progeny so far mostly seem best at two - that's racing!

Game of opinions, though.
 
You must wonder how the lads feel now about keeping Auguste Rodin in training to send 100 plus mares to Justify instead.
Fifty years on from Apalachee these things do happen.
Keep trying , just when you think you have this racing game cracked your teeth get kicked in.
 
If experience goes on to prove that Justifys don't train on then it could be very costly for Coolmore.

I still don't think AR is as good as the hype but they have enough ammo to keep winning a raft of G1s to offset any damage to the operation byt their 'mistakes'.

It would be nice to have that level of money to be able to afford the mistakes.
 
A thought about the winner.
He traces to Welsh Garden, near champion juvenile filly in Ireland 1975.
Trained by Mick Connolly and ridden by his apprentice son Robbie (since died of MND), Welsh Garden had an aversion to starting stalls so ran only at tracks with a tape start.
Her main win was the Waterford Crystal Nursery at Gowran Park, a feature event run around 1st October.
Sold to America, she was mated with Secretariat, which is like mating a greyhound to a Jack Russell.
Resulting daughter mated to Dancing Brave produced Cherokee Rose, a top sprinter in her day.
Matings to Seeking The Gold, Pivotal and Invincible Spirit through generations produced the dam of Notable Speech.
Who would have thought this in 1975 with a small quick, quirky filly named Welsh Garden ?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just watched the race again on +1.

Take the winner out and we'd be raving about good a winner the Hannon horse was. Inisherin ran a terrific race relative to its odds. No money back for it but I got a wee shudder about three out.
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And me as I was watching the wrong horse.i thought inisherin was in 2nd
 
Ian_Davies said:
One is feeling somewhat justified about having reservations about Justify's stock having better records at two than three thus far.

But tbh, never mind breeding, one look at him in the paddock told you his best days might already be behind him - Mill Reef was a bit of a short arse, but he was. the exception, not the rule.
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Isn't it a bit early to come to that conclusion, we're only a month into the proper racing season and this is his first crop. You might be right though as I much prefer stallions who proved themselves as 2yos and 3yos.

As regards Mill Reef, he was a very muscled colt. As I've said CoT looked very light to me. I see he's still 2nd favourite for Epsom. As Edgt said it's Apalachee all over again and if it is CoT won't run at Epsom.

In the end did Coolmore really send 80 or 100 mares to Justify this Spring?
 
Of course it's early, but as a punter the only way to get value is to try to be ahead of the curve (and the crowd) and that involves being a bit brave based on not much evidence sometimes.

If I was simply a bloodstock analyst I would agree, but I'm not, I am a punter, looking for value edges.

I stated on my broadcast last Sunday that Justify has done better with his 2yos than 3yos so far and nothing that has happened this weekend so far has done anything to dispel that notion.

Maybe Ramatuelle can turn it around today, but at Deauville she looked like another small fast juvenile to me who hasn't grown.

I'm not scared of looking daft sometimes - as I would had City Of Troy stormed home yesterday - but the rewards for not following the crowd are great in the long run.

Btw you can lay 7.6 (13/2) for The Derby ante-post on the machine - it's a funny old world where the colt is a shorter price for Epsom after that debacle yesterday than Shergar was just after he won the Sandown Classic Trial by ten in 1981 (8/1 available).
 
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Ian_Davies said:
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Ian_Davies said:
Maybe Ramatuelle can turn it around today, but at Deauville she looked like another small fast juvenile to me who hasn't grown.
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I see Ramatuelle is top rated on RPRs today. This, for me, highlights the importance of reading beyond the ratings. She's top rated because she's had a run this season in a good race. Others that haven't had a run are just as entitled to come out and post a career best which might be better than Ramatuelle's.

As an aside, I'm not a fan of Francesca Cumani but at least her pronunciation of Ramatuelle yesterday was pretty much spot on. I wish the ITV team would consult her more often before they go making an arrse of pronouncing other French names and words.
 
Just looked at the sections for yesterday's race.

Impressive though the winner was, it looks like he was really just slowing down a lot less than the rest.

It would seem they've gone too fast up front and the winner has benefitted from a pace collapse.


Screenshot (87).png
 
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