Haldon Gold Cup

rorydelargy

rorydelargy

At the Start
Joined
May 15, 2005
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/11261- TWIST MAGIC 6 11-10t R Walsh P F Nicholls
831F2- NATAL 7 11-0t 160 Nick Scholfield(5) P F Nicholls
4160P- HOWLE HILL 8 10-5 Robert Thornton A King
/F5PP- ASHLEY BROOK 10 10-4 Richard Johnson K Bishop
/10220- ROMAN ARK 10 10-4 Phil Kinsella J M Jefferson
35F15- MAHOGANY BLAZE 6 10-4 P J Brennan N A Twiston-Davies
3P103- MISTER QUASIMODO 8 10-4tb Joe Tizzard C L Tizzard
742-62 BISHOP´S BRIDGE 9 10 10-4 Jack Doyle(3) Miss E C Lavelle
875-53 PAUNTLEY GOFA 15 12 10-4 T J Phelan(3) Mark Gillard

Long Handicap: Roman Ark 9-12, Mahogany Blaze 9-12, Mister Quasimodo 9-10, Bishop's Bridge 9-7, Pauntley Gofa 6-12

I can't have the Nicholls horses here and will look at the ground before taking the plunge. West Country rumour is that Ashley Brook is back on song but you have to take that on trust. Really soft ground would give Roman Ark a chance while Mahogany Blaze should have more scope for improvement at six. Any strong opinions?
 
Twist Magic has 0-2 at this distance and has only won 2-5 on the predicted going whilst Natal is 2-2 at the distance but only 2-10 on the going.

Mahogany Blaze won the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton last December, beat Oslot and was placed three times in Graded company and is getting a lot of weight from the Nicholls pair and wouldn't be surprised if this one prevails.
 
I'm with DG - the yard is in great form and what with the form he posted last year and the weight concessions Mahogany Blaze should run a big race.
 
Bishops Bridge comes here fit and looks likely to go much better than 11 lb wrong at the weights suggests. The way he travels through lesser races suggests he should be able to cope with the rise in grade and he looks interesting EW at 25's.
 
If Twist Magic is right, he will outclass these. A fresh Mahogany Blaze being the main danger.
 
Twist Magic struck me as a horse that wasn't quite right last season rather than a horse that has regressed as was suggested in certain quarters, and it's his participation alone that makes me cautious.

If he's back to his best he wins. If he's not do you take Natal's form behind him literally from Punchestown? 160 seems a high mark on what he'd achieved previously but if that genuinely represents a big step up rather than Twish Magic and others running below there best he also has a shout. I'm inclined to think his mark is too high despite Nick Schofield taking a useful 5lb's off though.

The two obvious ones are Mahogany Blaze and Howle Hill. I have a feeling MB may get into a battle up front so there has to be a doubt there too. Howle Hill on the other hand is best fresh and his run behind Master Minded at Sandown is top drawer. His form tailed off dramatically after his first two runs last season and now may be the time to get him.

Ashley Brook is capable on his day. But his day is too long ago now, and the horrendous jumping problems he developed after coming back from injury can't be ignored. If that were all behind him and he were straight for his debut he'd be capable of surprising though.

The ground is also potentially a real factor as a few of the principles wouldn't want to much rain.

All in all a race to avoid for betting purposes I would suggest and it may be better to look at the race as a pointer towards the respective merits of several of todays contenders in respect of the season ahead.
 
I really can't see what piece of form makes Twist Magic look well handicapped off 170 or what run suggests seventeen and a half furlongs on soft ground will play to his strengths. I think he's more likely to bomb out than win and will be place-laying accordingly.
 
What rating would you have given him for last years Tingle Creek DavidJohnson?

Distance would be an issue.
 
actually laid Twist Magic very heavily, and sneakily for a place as well.

Is it me or has the Haldon Gold Cup really deteriated in the past few years.
 
I guess you have a point, Chris, when you think back to the likes of Best Mate, Edredon Bleu and Azertyuiop.

By the way, the betting in the first race looks out of kilter to me. According To Dick is entitled to be a hot favourite, but on Betfair only one other horse, Penharold, is less than 20/1 at the moment. There could be a bit of ew value out there. Vodka Brook, perhaps?
 
I backed Vodka Brook earlier at 23, for pretty much the reasons Grey outlines (I like the form with Voice of Reason and Alderluck).

Most of the money has been matched at between 18 and 25, and he's hovering around the 20/1 mark on BF right now.
 
Great run from Ashley brook, jumped great throughout, hope the horse stays sound for the rest of the season.
 
davidjohnson said:
I really can't see what piece of form makes Twist Magic look well handicapped off 170 or what run suggests seventeen and a half furlongs on soft ground will play to his strengths. I think he's more likely to bomb out than win and will be place-laying accordingly.
Click to expand...

Great shout dj, a shame that I didn't heed your advise.
 
Garney said:
Well done Chris but hope you didnt try the same with the Nicholls odds-on shots today.
Click to expand...

No I like laying Nicholls under 4/1 win and under 5/2 place (1.7 and under) in handicaps. His horses are norm way too short and are handicapped because of conenctions.

I don't lay his novices in handicaps however.

But his next lay for me, is making its way to Cheltenham on the 15th.
 
It's actually showing a healthy profit at the moment, except when Sporazene took a dent or two in the summer. He used to be such a fav of mine as well lol
 
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