Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I've backed Somersby for the Gold Cup but it's got to be Cornas at 4s for this tomorrow. He's had an outing already and loves this track.
Haldon
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davidjohnson
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If you fancy Somersby to be in the top 5 in the Gold Cup, you'd want to see him go very close in this off 156. I agree with Hamm, in that Somersby should be a clear short-priced fav. Can anyone tell me why he isn't 13/8? I've not fancied a jumper like this since The Tother One or Tartak.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The closeness in price is a reflection of a fitness edge and my selections course form. The best horse doesn't always win this contest.
G
Gearoid
Guest
The 3/1 looks a super price to me. What price would Sizing Europe be in this field off 160? 10/11?
G
Gearoid
Guest
I'msingingtheblues the Pricewise at 9/1 perhaps.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Don't be forgetting Lord Of Illusion now, DJ.
Somersby should be jolly for this. Gets stacks of weight, and stiff 2m perfect.
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I'm hoping to see that HERECOMETHETRUTH's nice long rest, at a time when he'd starting to get a bit ragged, will have restored him to his true, gritty, enthusiastic self. He's way out in the sticks at 25s or more, but if he's back feeling fresh and happy, he could put in a fabulous run.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Kind of agree Krizon - don't think he was handled that well after his fall at Huntingdon last season when being asked to concede 2 stone all round at Fontwell and he won FTO last season and the season before and I doubt Chris Gordon would run the horse in this if he didn't think he had a real fighting chance.
Agree with the consensus too ie. Sommersby should be shorter.
Agree with the consensus too ie. Sommersby should be shorter.
I hope we're right about 'Truth', Martin - he deserved better than he got after his crash, as you say. I felt the package was beginning to unravel quite badly after that, but he's had plenty of recuperation time and this could be a good chance for him. Fingers crossed.
EC1
On a break
Sommersby makes a lot of mistakes for a horse so short in price
Herecomesthetruth is 25/1 in the betting and is 5 from 6 on soft ground by compariosn
Herecomesthetruth is 25/1 in the betting and is 5 from 6 on soft ground by compariosn
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davidjohnson
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Have to really disagree with this. I think the Hen is second to none when it comes to schooling her chasers and on his first 3 starts over fences I thought Somersby was almost faultless. He wasn't nearly so good at Aintree, but I'm not sure that was the real Somersby, he was edgy in the prelims and was also kicked on the ay to post.
EC1
On a break
there are plenty of mistakes mentioned in his form David...I'm not saying he is a poor jumper but I wouldn't be taking a short price about him..he is also handicapped up to his real mark..he has very little if anything in hand.
If such as Herecomestehtruth runs up to his best he is better handicapped for instance and is a massive price
thats without looking at the others..even a 25/1 shot looks better handicapped than Somersby
not my idea of a good 9/4 shot..i'd rather back a fast trapping trap 1 at that price..no fences to jump and only 5 dogs to beat..a no brainer really
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G
Gearoid
Guest
You are having a laugh. When was the last time the front two in an Arkle were handicapped up to their correct mark? Somersby could have any amount in hand off 157.
EC1
On a break
i'm not laughing...well..only a little bit at how much you are overrating the Arkle
how high do you think you can rate the Arkle?
Osana..rated 150 3rd beaten 2.25 lengths
Mad Max rated ..144 beaten 5.25 lengths
if you think Somerby is well handicapped on that form and is value at 9/4..good luck with it bud
I'll stick with the Trap 1 on this occasion
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EC1
On a break
previous Arkle winners OHR immediately after they won Arkle
Forpaddytheplasterer ...156
Tidal Bay ..won by 13 len ...166
Myway de Solzen...159
Voy Por Ustedes ...162
they were winners..some very good
so how is Somersby well handicapped?
Forpaddytheplasterer ...156
Tidal Bay ..won by 13 len ...166
Myway de Solzen...159
Voy Por Ustedes ...162
they were winners..some very good
so how is Somersby well handicapped?
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Shadow Leader
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Yes, she generally is, but no amount of schooling can necessarily get a clumsy yak to jump properly! Counsel produces their first piece of evidence; Bally Conn. Racing Demon was none too clever over fences either. That said, I do agree that Hen schools well and/or vigorously, and also that Somersby is generally a good jumper.
Anyway, I might just throw in a curveball and suggest that Herecomesthetruth is possibly worth a look at a big price. He's the sort of animal who could thrive in a small yard where he gets more attention and Chris Gordon is no fool; he is very much under-rated as a trainer IMO.
EDIT - apologies, hadn't actually read the whole thread and didn't realise that he'd already been mentioned!
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trackside528
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Interesting stuff, DJ ~ wasn't aware of either of those points. I thought Somersby's finishing effort at Aintree was seriously disconcerting, mind you - particularly the way he hung in behind Mad Max and shirked the issue between the last two flights.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
How the shite was MWDS rated higher the year after he won the Arkle?
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Gearoid
Guest
Well spotted. That was his hurdle mark.
Do you know he's wrong at the weights - does this not concern you?
He and Tchico Polos, his 2 main market rivals, are 3 and 5 pounds wrong.
I see it as between Somersby and Imsingingtheblues (who is fine at the weights but has the 'help' of Tom Scudamore to overcome), with preference for the former, and maybe a small saver on the latter.