Haldon

I am in full agreement with all Hamm's posts on this thread. Somersby a solid pick, Imsingingtheblues a value saver, and Tchico Polos to jump himself silly.

edit : I also have a little respect for Twist Magic. Not really a logic choice, but I don't find it hard to visualise having a "for God's sake" moment when he goes in unbacked by me at 25/1, so he wont be.
 
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Hamm said:
Do you know he's wrong at the weights - does this not concern you?
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Obviously it's not ideal but I think my selections probable fitness edge and love of the track will nullify this. I would admit that my following the stable is the clincher in putting the money down though.
 
Tchico Polos is a horrible creature - he just bolts with his jockey in front and hopes to stay there. I saw him win a novice hurdle at Wincanton and he had literally pissed off with Ruby for at least the first circuit.
 
Agree - I've never seen Ruby taken for such a ride as this horse did in the Feltham - Kauto wouldn't have stayed 3 miles going as fast as he was for the first circuit!
 
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For all I make Sommersby the form choice, I'd be concerned that today is unlikely to be his main target.

I think Cornas will probably run well be can't be bothered to get involved at 4-1.

It's likely Mahogany Blaze will find a couple too good but, given he is pretty consistent and will be fully revved up, I reckon there's a smidge of each way value at about 10-1.
 
Studied this at length last night and of the principles its only Somersby that makes appeal but i'm not convinced by him.

Given the ground is likely to be soft and there is plenty of pace in this i thought both the Sawyer and Herecomesthetruth have excellent e/w prospects.

The Sawyer's record when tackling 21f or less in Soft or heavier ground is very good. Exactly the same as herecomesthetruth. Both will go off in front and should set a good pace and make it a test. The issue is that i'm not sure either of them is quite quick enough over the 2m1 1/2f trip but i'd be happy to back both to place in this at the reasonably generous terms on betfair.
 
TP settled well today and wins....thought Twist Magic was going to piss in before getting out paced then staying on again.

Somerbys ran well on his debut but his jumping went to pieces a bit (good call EC) under pressure.
 
Well, he didn't jump them silly from the front, but neither did he behave like an arse, as per Shadow's prior observation of his behaviour. Pissed off with HERCOMESTHEWHOOPS - he's RO before, at Cheltenham I think, and today was no time to show how cute a jockey looks in a heap of busted wing rails. Bad horsey! Nice race in general, though, and a great effort by TWIST MAGIC.
 
Nick Williams' horses have run poorly today - something you don't see very often.
 
Nick Williams has done well overall with the horses he has had (his handling of Diamond Harry when hurdling not a highlight though) in recent seasons, but his horses were starting to be overbet last season, and you would think this will continue this season, and likely to be little value in backing his horses.
 
I wonder how many horses he's got in training now. It's hard to work out as he doesn't have a website but I'd hazard a guess he's got a far bigger team this season than last, with a fair few new horses running already and support from the likes of Jared Sullivan of Potensis. A trainer who's going places...
 
Haven't seen the race, but seen the result - ouch!! Got that one wrong!!! It's a shame to see that switching to a small yard and getting more individual attention doesn't seem to have sweetened up Herecomesthetruth - maybe it will in time, or maybe he's just a lost cause!

If you look at the stats from this time last year, I think you'll find that Nick Williams had quite a few fancied horses turned over at this same time of the season. Certainly last season most of them just weren't fit enough early on in the season to win first time up and it appears that much the same is happening. Hamm is right in that you aren't ever going to be able to back a Nick Williams horse and get value with its price as well.
 
Hamm said:
Nick Williams has done well overall with the horses he has had (his handling of Diamond Harry when hurdling not a highlight though) in recent seasons, but his horses were starting to be overbet last season, and you would think this will continue this season, and likely to be little value in backing his horses.
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He stands out like a sore thumb if you look at the top dozen or so yards from last year given his string size but every race is different and like Prescott on the flat the odd nugget does reveal itself if you look hard enough. Reve de Sivola was monster value for the Baring Bingham last year. But yeah, you have to be selective.
 
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Shadow Leader said:
If you look at the stats from this time last year, I think you'll find that Nick Williams had quite a few fancied horses turned over at this same time of the season. Certainly last season most of them just weren't fit enough early on in the season to win first time up and it appears that much the same is happening.
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Cornas won a few weeks ago at Limerick (prepped in same race last season) so fitness hardly an issue in this instance.
 
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