Hard work is the only way at this game

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EC21

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At one time a few years ago, I had an edge on the AW, I daily sectional timed races before those type of figures were talked about. Those days are long gone now. I posted a lot of winners up at that time on here 2015/16. After a while though I realised that the time I spent each day doing that f^cked me up. I can actually go back to about 2004/5 on the Direct Racing forum where I dabbled with sectional timing initialy. Same as any angle, the media starts putting that info out there. That doesn't necessarily mean it's built in to prices though. Reading sectional times is too much effort for people generally, so there will still be an edge there I feel. These days, I just don't take this game as serious as I did, I once thought I could always find an angle through hard work. Well, now I am a lazy c*nt, so just can't do it. :D

I have always loved reading the big race threads on here, the NH ones are so informative. You start in November with each big race at Cheltenham being built up to. If you read those threads you soon get know how a certain horse acts on certain ground, certain types of tracks etc, certain pace etc. I have taken part in a few Champion Hurdle ones and had some great banter on here. Those threads were awesome in the past. I usually ended up with egg on face too;)

Even if I never watched one race from November to March, I would just have to read the opinions passed about all the main contenders on here for 6 months previously. I could profile each horse just based on opinion passed on here on those threads.

Reading all those posts through the months, noting comments about each horse from people who know NH racing like they do on here, is also hard work.

I sometimes wonder if that "hard work" can spoil your love for the game? flat or jumps? I found in the past it tends to get very mechanical. You grind horses through what you think is their favoured conditions etc, you jump on them on days when you think..this is it..then it fooking isn't:lol:

I think this game is one of the hardest mental tests..probably apart from playing snooker and being 6-0 down against Ronnie:lol:

When I look back...if someone had kicked me in the b0llox as many times as a result had gone against me..I would have bailed out years ago after visiting A&E yet again.

I wonder how horse racing punters come back from real grief, re how a day has gone for instance. Are we so obsessed to the point that we can get over sh1t quickly? Do we love the game that much we can't break away? I never know the answer to that. All I know is that I could never see myself not having horse racing as part of my daily life, even though I am now a lazy fook.:lol:
 
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I know exactly what you mean and I still keep trying to find a relatively easy way of making a profit.
I try to make sure that when I do bet that I am getting a value price, but how can we be sure we are getting value?

I have a rule of thumb method that works most of the time but bombs often enough to frustrate me. I subtract one from the number of runners in the race and divide by 2 and then divide by 2 again and I will only bet horses between those prices.

As an example:
10 runners.
subtract one = 9.
divide by 2 = 9/2.
divide by 2 = 9/4

This is based on stats that I used years ago but I have never got round to checking if they are still valid!
 
walsworth said:
I know exactly what you mean and I still keep trying to find a relatively easy way of making a profit.
I try to make sure that when I do bet that I am getting a value price, but how can we be sure we are getting value?

I have a rule of thumb method that works most of the time but bombs often enough to frustrate me. I subtract one from the number of runners in the race and divide by 2 and then divide by 2 again and I will only bet horses between those prices.

As an example:
10 runners.
subtract one = 9.
divide by 2 = 9/2.
divide by 2 = 9/4

This is based on stats that I used years ago but I have never got round to checking if they are still valid!
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Not sure I can follow the logic of that Walsworth. In a 10 runner race, say an handicap, one horse may have a 10 lb edge, so will be odds on. So you miss those races out? Well if the logic is good you should just be caning those odds onners surely? It is very generic tbh. I used to treat races like that and tbh it doesn't work. I think what you are saying is that in a 10 horse race you will only bet horses between 9/4 and 9/2? But that will be most of them with a chance no? You may well be betting 4 horses out of 10? It is too generic surely?

You might as well just bet every horse in every race that are between those price points? It won't work really imo.

You could look at it in a different way. Those between 9/4 and 9/2 are poor value, so just back the others above 9/2?

I have no idea which of those groups would make more money, I could database it, but am too lazy now.

Good chat either way.
 
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Not looking at every race just the ones that are thrown up by one of my selection systems.

If my selection is not in that range then I don't bet.
 
I invest way less time in study/analysis now, than I did, say, a dozen or so years ago, but it hasn't had a detrimental effect on my P&L. Nowadays, I'm much more choosy about the types of race that I get involved in, is the only thing I think explains it.

Most days, I'll have a quick scan through race cards - except May to September, obviously - but most days I won't have a bet.

On quieter days early in the Jumps season, I generally look to see if there's anything running for a trainer who is clearly in-form, and who might have one up against a trainer with a higher profile. Just as an example from the early part of this season, if I saw a horse trained by someone like Sandy Thomson or Jamie Snowden, and they were in against a favourite from Olly Murphy or Phillip Hobbs or Nicky Henderson (for example), I'd probably want to be backing the Thomson/Snowden horses. If there's nothing takes my eye, I generally won't bet on weekdays.

Saturdays & Sundays (and the occasional Friday at a big meeting) is where I invest almost all of my study time.....and even then, I might only look at a half-dozen races across the weekend. Other than that, I like early-closer races where there's an ante-post market, and try to figure out who is/isn't likely to run, and get my position early. If my selection gets to the race, I rarely have any cover bet, as I figure I've done enough already - right or wrong!

Losing is a part of the game, and I'm sanguine about it. It's not something I measure day-to-day, as I figure it would drive you mental. It's too much of a roller-coaster. Truth be told, I'm likely to be more pissed-off having three-up in a Yankee, and missing the fourth, than I am about all four getting cuffed.

I still love the game, but I would say we've settled into a comfortable marriage now, whereas it was once a full-blooded passion. Age withers us all, I guess.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I invest way less time in study/analysis now, than I did, say, a dozen or so years ago, but it hasn't had a detrimental effect on my P&L. Nowadays, I'm much more choosy about the types of race that I get involved in, is the only thing I think explains it.
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I started down this road about 20 years or so ago.

Conservatively speaking, there's probably 30 UK races on any one midweek day and the chances are only half a dozen contain a majority of triers. It's just too much of a faff trying to figure out which so I let them go.

For quite a number of years now I've been restricting myself to the TV races and/or races worth at least £20K (NH) or £30k (Flat) as they're more likely to have more triers and the form is more likely to work out. After that it's just down to me to do my best to pick the right one(s) in a race.

I no longer keep a running P/L log. I just keep an eye on the balances I have with the various bookies and I can't recall the last time I had to add funds to an account. At the same time, I'm not running away from the bookies like Constitution Hill from Jonbon, but I'm keeping nicely in front without feeling like I'm knocking my pan in. At my age, I'm happy to settle for that, especially with the ongoing realisation that I'm going to [perhaps be forced to] pack the game in reasonably soon.
 
I’m in the same club. I skim through the daily results to see if anything catches my eye and look a bit more closely at anything that does, then follow them up for next race (paying attention to the opposition) to see if there’s a bet and that’s about it nowadays. I’ve never been a great student of form and quite apart from the fact that I’m a dead loss at it, I firmly believe that the major factor is whether a horse is ready to rock. My main clue to that comes from it’s last run.
 
EC21 said:
At one time a few years ago, I had an edge on the AW, I daily sectional timed races before those type of figures were talked about. Those days are long gone now. I posted a lot of winners up at that time on here 2015/16. After a while though I realised that the time I spent each day doing that f^cked me up. I can actually go back to about 2004/5 on the Direct Racing forum where I dabbled with sectional timing initialy. Same as any angle, the media starts putting that info out there. That doesn't necessarily mean it's built in to prices though. Reading sectional times is too much effort for people generally, so there will still be an edge there I feel. These days, I just don't take this game as serious as I did, I once thought I could always find an angle through hard work. Well, now I am a lazy c*nt, so just can't do it. [/]:D
Only rarely use sectionals now adays. They're the tool of those who believe horses race against the clock imo, with scant regard for what they raced against.
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I well recall your glory days, and a little surprised you gave it up so easily.
You often said that 'pace makes the race' and it's a key factor in serious form study imo - flat or jumps.
It's not an easy process, and I get it wrong more than right but, on the odd occasion I do get it right, it often pays a useful dividend, regularly on forecasts.
Horse racing is still a big part of my daily life, and I wouldn't like it any other way.
 
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reet hard said:
I well recall your glory days, and a little surprised you gave it up so easily.
You often said that 'pace makes the race' and it's a key factor in serious form study imo - flat or jumps.
It's not an easy process, and I get it wrong more than right but, on the odd occasion I do get it right, it often pays a useful dividend, regularly on forecasts.
Horse racing is still a big part of my daily life, and I wouldn't like it any other way.
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Stuff happened in life and the daily routine of recording every AW race sectionally was intruding on stuff I needed to sort out. I think we are all in same boat re our love for racing, it gets in your blood.
 
Reet, I remember you mentioning a while ago that you liked watching the MPH figures on the screen during a race. So do I. Over a period of time you get used to what a strong or weak pace is looking at them during the race. Obviously depending on what distance the race is over. A lot of courses still don't have that info though. I like to watch a race where one horse goes clear and you know that they aren't running too fast, mainly NH races, but it is the rest of the field that has misjudged the pace. A number of times I back the leader in running when I spot these types.
 
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I've lost a lot of my interest in horse racing these last few years especially over the jumps.
Trainers not trying just looking to Cheltenham.and when we get to Cheltenham the dominance of W.Mullins and trying to work out which one to back.
I dont study form nowadays,I will have a look sometimes if theres something I want to know.
I was looking at a horse the other day which led me to another which led me to Blenkinsop a winner at Newbury.
I have a list of eyecatchers which is my main line of betting and I do tend to follow them until hopefully they win at a price that makes up for the losses.i seem to do alright at it and 2022 was my best year for a while.
I find Patience is a virtue.
Young fire was my biggest loser this last year but I'm really hoping he will repay me in 2023 and I will be keeping an eye out for the Lincoln and a decent price.
 
Things have been quite hectic for me of late and I've had to pare back even more on what races I select to study.

I had a couple of lapses over the last week leading me to back (small stakes) some horses, without really checking the form, just because I was getting to see the racing maybe when I wasn't expecting to.

I don't recall any winning, which served to reinforce my belief that you really need to work at whatever your area of specialism is just to have any chance of breaking even, let alone get in front.

I do, though, have some ideas that I think might get the casual punter to land the odd winner:

Watch the pre-race interviews with connections. I can't help thinking the TV people are getting info about fancied runners and it makes for good TV to have got them to talk beforehand so that they can go back to them and talk to them again after the race. Okay, so they'll interview a few such connections but sometimes you end up with a winner at nice odds.

Try not to forget comments in immediate post-race euphoric interviews. The jockey's guard is down and he/she often gives away information that will be helpful for the future.

Listen to the pundits and try to get a feel for the ones that tend to give winners. These pundits have access to info not in the public domain. For example, if Jason Weaver gives one a strong mention as it's entering the stalls it will very often run well although you probably need to have your device open at oddschecker to have any chance of getting a bet on before the odds are slashed.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Things have been quite hectic for me of late and I've had to pare back even more on what races I select to study.

I had a couple of lapses over the last week leading me to back (small stakes) some horses, without really checking the form, just because I was getting to see the racing maybe when I wasn't expecting to.

I don't recall any winning, which served to reinforce my belief that you really need to work at whatever your area of specialism is just to have any chance of breaking even, let alone get in front.

I do, though, have some ideas that I think might get the casual punter to land the odd winner:

Watch the pre-race interviews with connections. I can't help thinking the TV people are getting info about fancied runners and it makes for good TV to have got them to talk beforehand so that they can go back to them and talk to them again after the race. Okay, so they'll interview a few such connections but sometimes you end up with a winner at nice odds.

Try not to forget comments in immediate post-race euphoric interviews. The jockey's guard is down and he/she often gives away information that will be helpful for the future.

Listen to the pundits and try to get a feel for the ones that tend to give winners. These pundits have access to info not in the public domain. For example, if Jason Weaver gives one a strong mention as it's entering the stalls it will very often run well although you probably need to have your device open at oddschecker to have any chance of getting a bet on before the odds are slashed.
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Good advice.
Except when they ask a trainer what he thinks and he says "I think he has a good chance" and you have a look and its 4/5
Of course it should have a chance.lol
 
Another thing I mentioned some time back which might not be without some degree of significance is the amount of advertising the jockeys wear in some races.

I noticed a while back - I'm talking several years - that the amount of advertising worn varied quite a bit from race to race, even with the same jockey/horse. I then noticed that a lot of winners were ridden by jockeys wearing lots of advertising.

I can't help thinking that if connections feel their horse is going to run well some agent is on hand to co-ordinate adverts on the jockeys and often if a jockey is wearing no or minimal advertising the horse doesn't run well.

I've no proof/video evidence etc to back this up, just an observation I made back then.

It's not really the kind of thing I can factor into my betting because most of my betting is done 24-48h before a race but sometimes watching the race and seeing no adverts on a jockey riding something I've backed has me watching for it not trying.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I do, though, have some ideas that I think might get the casual punter to land the odd winner:
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I wouldn't disagree with the suggestions for sure, but there are other options for anyone that doesn't have the time or maybe the background experience to 'do the hard work'. (I'd argue it's not hard work, but more a labour of love. However, you can't escape the fact that it gets hard to keep going sometimes - most often in the midst of a losing run, I'd venture to suggest - and, as with many things that take deep effort and concentration, burnout is an 'always there' possibility).

Not least just to follow the selections in some of the threads here. I haven't worked back and checked, but it's a good bet the 'should be odds on' thread is showing a good enough profit. Likewise 'what are you backing today' gets enough nice winners, the specific race threads are full of views and opinions worth noting and acting upon appropriately, and Giggsy's thread has its moments (an understatement!). Even the longshot thread has made its mark once or twice (or thrice + :).

But I'd agree that the best way is to specialize in something, and that does entail 'work', but not always an onerous amount. I'll give an example - sires. I know of a handful this season that, if you knew the likely preferences for offspring and kept to specific trainers and race types and maybe one or two other criteria, and just stuck to those, there would have been a nice profit. And we're only 'halfway' through the season.

The 'problem' for me (and I expect may be similar for many) is that the draw of the game overall is too great to be so limited in betting selections. (Potential) winners are everywhere, right.

But why is that, when there seems pretty clear evidence that specialization is the way to go if you want to make a long-term profit?

The answer (partly, and it's a generalization I know) is that, outside of professional-level punting, it's not necessarily about just making some pennies or pounds. Sure, we all want to win. We all want a positive balance in a betting account that's more than what we put in. And when it's a big win, it can make some hefty positive impacts. Especially for anyone that really needs the cash boost.

But day to day, it's about love, engagement, and the thrill. The love of the horses, the engagement that you get from that, and the thrill when yours is putting in a good run, and you were right to make that choice. Sometimes one of a very few who were right. You don't need to have a lot on to enjoy the love, the engagement, and the thrills. Indeed, you don't need anything on in some cases (although there's little doubt that the larger amounts involved sometimes do make the heart beat somewhat faster and the adrenaline flow a little more freely!!).

How many of us have cheered on a warrior even when there's no cash at stake.

Because at its root, (I firmly believe) it's all about emotional engagement.

It's why you can shed a tear when watching a race from 40 years ago. And shed the same tear when you watch it again a year or five later. Or it sends shivers down your spine when your warrior jumps one like it was a house, or flies the last 3 lengths down and gets up to win a head, or makes all with head in chest.

For all those reasons, none of it is really hard work. To keep going, you need enough winners to meet the availability of 'disposable' cash without actually running out of it. And that - for many, if they can make it happen - will/may always be enough.
 
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