Harsh Handicapping

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Looking at this weeks changes on the BHA site, I feel the Newbury Handicapper has been quite severe.

Big Bucks, held in 3rd when unseating at the last has been adjusted from 152 to 159 despite not finishing his race and in the same race he raised Air Force One 7lb for achieving his 2nd.

I raise the question that is this fair as he principally assumes both horses would have finished upsides. The winner Madison Du Berlais was raised 10lb for his success but I struggle to accept that there was as much as 3lb difference between himself and Air Force One.

More to the point Ballydub who won the Pertemps Qualifier in impressive and comfortable style was raised from 131 to 138. For me his success was far more impressive than that of the front trio in the Hennessy and he was open to beat his opponents further and in better style, I feel the handicapper has undervalued his win and has left him extremely well handicapped whilst the first three home in the Hennessy have been very harshly treated, especially Big Bucks who now off a mark of 159 will struggle to find a suitable handicap and will now be pushed into Graduation Chases.
 
It`s obvious that on better ground Air Force One and Big Bucks are gonna be top class chasers. So I think the handicapper is right in this instance.
 
A handicapper doesn't have the right to assume a horse will act better on better ground and raise it accordingly.
 
Ballydub only ran off 124 on Friday though. He'd already gone up 7lb for finishing second to Punchestowns on the Sunday of the Paddy Power meeting. In effect he's be a stone higher next time for winning 5 lengths which is probably a fair reflection of what he achieved on the day with obvious prospects of more to come.
 
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Hamm said:
A handicapper doesn't have the right to assume a horse will act better on better ground and raise it accordingly.
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It`s not the acting on the ground that I`m on about. Both horses got tired. They wouldn`t have done if the race had been run a couple of days earlier.
 
If they tired because of the amount of the weight they were forced to carry, how can you advocate that it is correct you think they should be lumbered with more. I'm as lost as Colin.
 
davidjohnson said:
how can you advocate that it is correct you think they should be lumbered with more.
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Both young chasers fairly treated and open to improvement. Both ran really well until tiring. I`m really surprised my point is so hard to grasp, it`s blatantly obvious they were the two horses to take from the race and that when conditions really do suit they`ll be hard to beat.
 
Euro,

I think you're confusing assessing what the handicapper should do and what one should take from a race.
 
Not really. If I`m the handicapper I`m raising both AF1 and BB because if I don`t they`ll skate in next time they`re in a handicap. All this up two pounds for a five length defeat is all well and good but a bit of common is needed as well.
 
It's not the handicappers job to assess whether they were suited by ground conditions or whether their inexperience cost them and adjust accordingly though. He simply has to assess their performance in the race in question, regardless of any likely future improvement.
 
It's the official handicappers job to produce a handicap that equalises the chance of all horses in a theoretical race.
 
To put it another way, the official handicapper wants to avoid a horse being thrown in because he didn't have a chance to re-assess him. That's the worst case scenario for him I'd guess. He's not going to miss a golden opportunity like this.
 
Petit Robin was raised 18lb to 150.

Pasco was given a initial chase mark of 139, Victor Chandler anyone ?????

Helens Vision raised 7lb for an all out Gerry Fielden win, the 3rd who didn't look off a yard Prince Taime raised 2lb, and should now be a good thing in the Ladbroke.

Straw Bear rated 139 over fences, hang on I can't work that out, Pasco beats him out of sight and rated the same, doesn't add up to me, either Pasco is handled lightly and is a handicap snip or Straw Bear has been handicapped baring in mind his hurdles ability which is not right.
 
davidjohnson said:
Ballydub only ran off 124 on Friday though. He'd already gone up 7lb for finishing second to Punchestowns on the Sunday of the Paddy Power meeting. In effect he's be a stone higher next time for winning 5 lengths which is probably a fair reflection of what he achieved on the day with obvious prospects of more to come.
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Didn't realise he was in off 124, however I find it hard to work out how. The entries were made at 5 days when he was rated 131, me thinks that those race conditions were quite weird. However a 14lb rise to me see only see's him off 138, a mark he is far better than. He'll win the Pertemps if campaigned ideally.
 
The way the handicapping system works is that updated ratings always take effect on a Saturday. i.e. if you win a handicap on a Saturday, you have just 6 days to run under a penalty. However if you win (or run) in a handicap on a Sunday, you will have 13 days to run under a penalty (or in this case off your old mark). The race conditions were normal and all above board, merely a case of the trainer taking advantage of an anomaly in the system.
 
Flame said:
Big Bucks, held in 3rd when unseating at the last has been adjusted from 152 to 159 despite not finishing his race and in the same race he raised Air Force One 7lb for achieving his 2nd.
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Have to agree with a 7lb rise being harsh on the face of it. A horse failing to complete when in contention is always a matter for conjecture, but he looked held in third to me as well. Very hard for me to believe he would have finished upsides Air Force One.

That said, I take Gareth's point about the handicapper not wanting to miss the chance to reassess a horse who is almost certainly considerably better than his current mark (travelled like a really good horse on Saturday). Hard to blame the handicapper for not wanting to get caught out, but at the same time the bare form doesn't warrant a 7lb rise IMO.
 
Flame said:
Petit Robin was raised 18lb to 150.

Pasco was given a initial chase mark of 139, Victor Chandler anyone ?????
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Well he's taking no chances with Petit Robin then, but I think in fairness its close to where he should be, I've got a ngging doubt the horse isstill about 18 pounds well in.

I'm not sure the Chandler is a handicap any more flame
 
BTW, the Victor Chandler is no longer a handicap. And Straw Bear at Newbury was plainly miles below the form of his Exeter run where he'd finished in front of Pasco off levels. Surely that is a more reliable indicator of their chase form.
 
I would say Pasco was miles off form at Exeter rather than the other way round, the King horse that beat them both was beaten easily next time, and the yard felt Pasco came back not 100% at Exeter, Straw Bear ran no better at Cheltenham than he did at Newbury, I think he has judged Straw Bear very harshly in my opinion, Pasco done a 113 on my speed figures at Newbury compared to his 85 at Exeter, Straw Bears 3 runs have given me 87 84 86, for me Pasco has ran to his ability at Newbury and Straw Bear has run to a similar mark on all three occasions over fences.
 
I think they grey area is the exact task of the handicapper. Is his job to assess performances or horses, or both?

He will probably have decided before the race that the winner would go up at least seven pounds. He'll have had it in mind that if you go back through the history of the Hennessy, he's raised the rating of the winner by 15lbs (Denman 2007), 13lbs (State Of Play 2006), 10lbs (Celestial Gold 2004), 21lbs (Strong Flow 2002), 8lbs (What's Up Boys 2001), 9lbs (Kings Road 2000). Going back into the 1990s, Ever Blessed went up 13lbs in 1999.

Trabolgan (2005) never raced again but would almost certainly have gone up by at least 10lbs and Gingembre went up 7lbs for finishing second to the subsequently disqualified Be My Royal in 2003.

The Hennessy is just one of those races that take a helluva lot of winning. Who'd have thought that Ever Blessed, who appeared to hack up, would have struggled thereafter?

For what it's worth, I think 10lbs is harsh on Madison Du Berlais. I had him almost top rated so he could have been expected to run very well but putting him up ten pounds will, I think, scupper any hopes he has of winning a handicap until his OR comes back down to within about 3lbs of Saturday. At least that's my gut reaction. Maybe future events will, as has happened so frequently in the past, prove the handicapper to be spot on.
 
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Speed figures are rather one dimensional if used as the sole way of measuring performance given that they are totally reliant on the pace of the race. Any form handicapper, be it official or commercial (or private for that matter) would be guilty of a gross negligence of duty by rating Straw Bear in the 80's.
 
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