Has 2012 seen the worst bunch of three year olds in living memory ?

A

Ardross

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I cannot remember such a bad year from top to bottom .

The domestic classics have been won by Camelot ( who now looks simply to have been the best of a bad bunch ) two very limited fillies in Homecoming Queen who ran like a drain thereafter and Was ( who whilst a good enough animal has been stuffed ever since )

I struggle to think outside of Masterstroke, Elusive Kate and The Fugue of horses that have been able to compete with the older generation.

Is this unfair or are the three years old of 2012 as crap as it seems?
 
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1974 had a similar profile.
Apalachee disappointed in 2000gns when 4/9 or so.Nonoalco won.
Snow Knight won Derby at 50/1.
Bustino gave the crop some kudos by winning Voltigeur.Leger and improving at 4.
Giacometti was placed in all classics and won the Champion Stks.
Take A Reef, a handicapper was to my knowledge "3yo of the yr" and top rated.
Apart from Bustino the other classic winning males disappointed at stud.(GB, Ireland ,France)
The fillies Highclere esp flew the flag for that generation though she won both her classics by narrow margins.
 
Unless one wins the Prix Royal-Oak next Sunday it will be the first year since the European Pattern was established in 1971 that none of the open Group 1s have been won by a 3yo.

(Some of the German and Italian G1s were, however).
 
If Camelot had by-passed the Irish Derby (which emptied him IMHO) and won the Ledger in the same style as his Derby then retired would we be saying this?
 
edgt said:
1974 had a similar profile.
Apalachee disappointed in 2000gns when 4/9 or so.Nonoalco won.
Snow Knight won Derby at 50/1.
Bustino gave the crop some kudos by winning Voltigeur.Leger and improving at 4.
Giacometti was placed in all classics and won the Champion Stks.
Take A Reef, a handicapper was to my knowledge "3yo of the yr" and top rated.
Apart from Bustino the other classic winning males disappointed at stud.(GB, Ireland ,France)
The fillies Highclere esp flew the flag for that generation though she won both her classics by narrow margins.
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Good post - interesting to hear an informed historical context.

I don't think we'll really know until next year. Maybe there's a Bustino lurking somewhere. They do look a poor bunch on the face of it, though I can't help feeling it might simply be a case of 'back to normality' after being treated to the likes of STS and Frankel.
 
Not disagreeing per se, but one factor this year has been the consistently appalling wet weather, which surely must have affected the results?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Unless one wins the Prix Royal-Oak next Sunday it will be the first year since the European Pattern was established in 1971 that none of the open Group 1s have been won by a 3yo.

(Some of the German and Italian G1s were, however).
Click to expand...

The Fugue? Ridasiyna?
 
Elusive Kate
The fugue
Radysina

in the fillies and mares

this is the worst bunch since I follow racing

the top 3yo in Europe for me has been
Camelot, Pastorius and Novellist in a similar figure

Radysina, Valyra, The Fugue and Great Heavens the best fillies
 
davidjohnson said:
Presumably when referring to 'open' races, Gareth is not including races restricted to fillies/mares.
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Yes, that's what I meant by 'open'. Anything 3yo+ (or 2yo+) with no fillies' restriction.

BTW Massiyn, in the Irish Leger, was the only 3yo to even come second in any of those races.

Really is a terrible record. You'd probably expect a few more just by random chance alone.
 
edgt said:
1974 had a similar profile.
Apalachee disappointed in 2000gns when 4/9 or so.Nonoalco won.
Snow Knight won Derby at 50/1.
Bustino gave the crop some kudos by winning Voltigeur.Leger and improving at 4.
Giacometti was placed in all classics and won the Champion Stks.
Take A Reef, a handicapper was to my knowledge "3yo of the yr" and top rated.
Apart from Bustino the other classic winning males disappointed at stud.(GB, Ireland ,France)
The fillies Highclere esp flew the flag for that generation though she won both her classics by narrow margins.
Click to expand...

Interesting to hear about the class of 74. It was a bad year although I think last year’s crop takes some beating. Take A Reef is an interesting case and shows how the handicappers of yesteryear gave pre-eminence to horses who could carry weight over horses who could run fast. He was rated 1 pound higher than Bustino (St Leger winner and King George runner up to Grundy a year later), 2 better than Nonoalco (2000 Guineas and Prix de Jaques le Marois) and 3 better than Snow Knight (Derby). The amazing thing is that Take A Reef only contested handicaps that year. His two best performances were carrying top weight in the John Smith cup at York and the Extel handicap at Glorious Goodwood beating older horses. He was due to contest a pattern race in the Champion Stakes but broke down before the race. Yet his handicap performances convinced the handicappers to rate him top 3yo! Nonoalco wasn’t a bad miler but Snow Knight failed to win in 8 other starts that season and goes down in my book in the Blakeney class – 1969 was also a naff year.
 
Without remembering the minutiae, I suspect Oath's year was another duff one. It was certainly the worst Derby I can recall and the Derby is usually a fair maker for the 3yos of the season.
 
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I went to school with Jesus and I can't remember a worse bunch.....Billy Fury's Anselmo would have beaten Camelot in the Derby and don't forget according to Aiden he was the best he had ever trained.....guess he must have meant the best behaved or something
 
On The Bridle said:
If Camelot had by-passed the Irish Derby (which emptied him IMHO) and won the Ledger in the same style as his Derby then retired would we be saying this?
Click to expand...

It could of course be argued that whether Camelot won the Triple Crown or not, that he only came as close as he did due to the general weakness in depth.

While I don't necessarily agree with this way of thinking you could put up a convincing argument for it.
 
While I agree with Ardross that this (2012) year's 3yos appear to be the worst for a long time I'd like to address some of the comments made about 1974, which in my opinion appear wide of the mark.

The main criticism I'd have of 1974 was that the best horse didn't win the Derby. Mercer who usually rode straightforward Derby races somehow got totally out of his ground on Bustino, got baulked at the top of the hill and despite recovering could only finish a fast finishing fourth to Snow Knight, a horse he'd already beaten twice that year. He proved his worth in his next-race when on ground he hated he was narrowly beaten by Sagaro (and we know how good he was!) and followed that up with a hammering of English Prince (then considered the best middle distance colt in Europe) at York and finally signed off with an impressive victory in the Leger.

Also the disparaging remarks about Highclere hardly tell the story. She won the 1000G by a head from a good filly called Polygamy (well clear of the rest) who then just happened to win the Oaks (yes I know Dibidale's sadlle slipped). Polygamy then ran 3rd in the Irish Oaks behind Dibidale and Gaily (who was a stablemate of Highclere and never mentioned in the same breath). Meanwhile thinking Highclere was bred more to favour 10f (being by the miler Queens Hussar) she went to Paris and won the Prix de Diane easily from Comtesse de Loir who went on to be 2nd in the Vermeille and 3rd in the Arc, so hardly a backmarker. They then tried Highclere over 12f in the KG at Ascot but she was beaten 2 and 1/2 lengths by Dahlia, who was then at her best. That seemed to do for her as she never showed the same fire again. But it is interesting to hear Michael Oswald's view that the at the end of the '80s the Queen had had 3 really good horses, the best being Dunfermline, Highclere being next and Aureole being next. He was close to all 3 of them and to rate Highclere better than Aureole hardly does her down.

Incidentally Snow Knight was third and went on to win 3 Group 1s the next season in the Americas, including beating Comtesse de Loir. The form lines in '74 (and '75) hang together very impressively with Bustino coming out the best middle distance colt and Dibidale the best filly but with Highclere very near: hardly a bad year.

I personally think the year started badly when O'Brien's superstar Apalachee proved such a flop. But that happens every second or third year whichever O'Brien you are talking about: it hardly defines the year. No with 3yos like Bustino, Dibidale, Highclere and Sagaro 1974 was far from being a poor year. You have to look elsewhere.
 
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