Has the market become more efficient?

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CPGagie

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A question that keeps popping into my head evey few Months. Is the Market really more efficient these days?

Non HCP races have a FAV SR of around 40 - 42%, while FAV's in HCP races have historically had a 30 - 32% SR.

If the market has 'supposedly' become better informed and it's all about beating the SP, then why have those averages not changed with the advent of computers which offer instant data retrieval, easier and much quicker analysis, video replays for all races, etc?

I started compiling speed figures in the early 90's. I'm sure many will remember the days of sitting up into the early hours flicking back and forth through the update pullouts, getting your hands covered in ink, and scribbling down notes.

I spent mnay hours sitting in what was essentially a fire hazard, as another sheet of A4 got crumpled and thrown in the direction of the overflowing waste paper basket. Oh, not to mention using the calculator. I used one with huge buttons as I felt there'd be less chance of making mistakes. At the time it was the norm, but in hindsight, what a nightmare.

I can tell you right now that I'm much more efficient (time wise) these days, and it's obvious everyone else must be also.

So why are those FAV SR's the same as back in the early 90's, and I'm sure way before then also?

There could be a very slight case for the HCPer also becoming more efficient, but it isn't enough imo, and that doesn't explain the non HCP FAV SR remaining the same.
I'm not sure if the average SP of FAV's is less now, I don't feel it is, but even if it were, that doesn't explain why their SR hasn't gone up.
 
It's a question that's crossed my mind too. If we all have better access to form, going reports, analysis and videos nowadays, as we do, is the end result that we are all finding it harder to get an edge?
 
Horse racing prices are only efficient near the off and even then there are obviously times where they are not, especially on massive price unexposed triers. Like every other edge the market will soon catch on.
 
I see what you're saying Slim, but that isn't exactly my point. Are SP's more efficient now compared to 30 years ago?

If punters are looking to profit form the market in any form, they need to know whats going to win, and yet the FAV SRs haven't changed, despite all the technology.
 
Non HCP races have a FAV SR of around 40 - 42%, while FAV's in HCP races have historically had a 30 - 32% SR.
Click to expand...

It could be a dumb question, but but what is ROI figures for both periods ?
 
Money has always driven the market and money is always going to be intelligent and unbiased so I don't see why you'd expect the SR to be higher.
 
"I don't see why you'd expect the SR to be higher"

because finding the winner should have become easier. Theres a Favourite in every race, and that is supposedly the most likely winner right up until they're off and running. So, with all the technology available to both punter and bookie, the SR of the FAV's should have increased. Maybe they are shorter in price now, but that doesn't explain the static FAV SR stats.

Doomster, I can go back as far as 01/01/00 with my database, so I can look at FAV's ROI then, and again for this year, but thats the widest range I can look at. Perhaps someone else can go back further.
 
Heres the results of clear FAV's (no JT or CO favs). Will do HCP races after a coffee.

NON HCP RACES
2000 - 1007/2554 (39.4%) (-6.1% ROI)
2001 - 1030/2636 (39.1%) (-8.5% ROI)
2002 - 1082/2774 (39.0%) (-3.4% ROI)
2003 - 1206/2916 (41.4%) (-4.2% ROI)
2004 - 1159/3268 (35.5%) (-11.4% ROI)
2005 - 1138/3123 (36.4%) (-3.8% ROI)
2006 - 1120/3007 (37.2%) (-8.1% ROI)
2007 - 1097/2910 (37.7%) (-8.2% ROI)
2008 - 1203/3060 (39.3%) (-6.9% ROI)
2009 - 1211/3069 (39.5%) (-8.3% ROI)
2010 - 1204/3131 (38.5%) (-11.5% ROI)
2011 - 1255/3221 (39.0%) (-8.8% ROI)
2012 - 1257/3157 (39.8%) (-7.7% ROI)
2013 - 1181/2842 (41.6%) (-6.4% ROI)
 
HCP RACES
2000 - 596/2263 (26.3%) (-7.8% ROI)
2001 - 556/2283 (24.4%) (-9.4% ROI)
2002 - 567/2402 (23.6%) (-13.4% ROI)
2003 - 633/2442 (25.9%) (-8.0% ROI)
2004 - 613/2488 (24.6%) (-8.1% ROI)
2005 - 635/2674 (23.7%) (-9.7% ROI)
2006 - 835/3149 (26.5%) (-6.9% ROI)
2007 - 965/3423 (28.2%) (-2.6% ROI)
2008 - 1011/3733 (27.1%) (-9.3% ROI)
2009 - 1037/3883 (26.7%) (-9.5% ROI)
2010 - 1119/4035 (27.7%) (-8.8% ROI)
2011 - 1081/4011 (27.0%) (-9.4% ROI
2012 - 1152/4129 (27.9%) (-6.3% ROI)
2013 - 1182/3982 (29.7%) (-7.2% ROI)

====================================

GROUP 1,2 AND 3 RACES ONLY (GB AND IRELAND).
2000 - 56/136 (41.2%) (+18.0% ROI)
2001 - 46/137 (33.6%) (-20.7% ROI)
2002 - 57/143 (39.9%) (+3.5% ROI)
2003 - 48/153 (31.4%) (-26.4% ROI)
2004 - 54/165 (32.7%) (-14.5% ROI)
2005 - 46/162 (28.4%) (-27.8% ROI)
2006 - 74/181 (40.9%) (+10.5% ROI)
2007 - 67/182 (36.8%) (-5.3% ROI)
2008 - 69/190 (36.3%) (-4.6% ROI)
2009 - 74/198 (37.4%) (-10.8% ROI)
2010 - 72/190 (37.9%) (+0.2% ROI)
2011 - 74/193 (38.3%) (+1.9% ROI)
2012 - 67/190 (35.3%) (-20.0% ROI)
2013 - 69/192 (35.9%) (-11.0% ROI)

As you can see through Jacks link, the HCP FAV's have increased their SR over the years by around 2% since the common use of computers, replays and all the rest of it.
 
While it has increased, with HCP's anyway. It doesn't seem that much in relation to the different techniques used for winner finding these days. Think back to all the newspapers, limited form, no replays (which alone you'd think would have a massive increase).

I suppose credit where is credit is due, the old bookies and pro punters were damn good at what they did, considering the tools they had at their disposal, if the only difference all of todays stuff has made is 2% in HCP's and little change otherwise.
 
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