Has the political landscape changed?

W

Warbler

At the Start
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Just listening to John Pinnaer and he raised the possibility that this time it might have done. We've seen by-elections before that have produced 'shocks' and we've also seen them proclaimed as ground breaking (Crosby comes to mind) albeit you might argue (as I tend to) that the SDP begat New Labour, but I do wonder if perhaps the electorate have had enough now?

It's been my observation of the British people over the years that you can take the p1ss out of them in all sorts of areas. You can humiliate and laugh at them, but if you push it too far, they do eventually bite back

I wonder if a combination of few things might have created the environment whereby for the first time they might carry a protest into a general election?

1: The dodgy dossier and the lies of the Iraq war
2: The MP's expenses scandal
3: Three palpably crap leaders

I'm trying to shake Clives tree a bit of course, but even he in fairness to him rarely puts his hand in the fire everytime for calamity Cameron

It looks to me as if the electorate have been threatening to deliver a shock verdict and always pulled back. Listening to some of the talking heads last night Pritti Patel in particular, there was a staggering level of complacency. They verged dangerously close to blaming the electorate for UKIP and Andrew Neil frankly made mincemeat of all the three main parties representatives, mocking them for their self regard and wholly unconvincing answers and pre scripted evasion
 
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there is only one reason people are voting UKIP..which is what is really shaking up the political world..immigration

thats it really

apart from that..for the working man...they have absolutely nothing to offer...the fact that they have people joining them from other parties makes them even more despicable..traitors to their original parties..same as the sdp..they ended up having their conferences in a phone box...people who leave parties to join others are fakes imo

people in Doncaster for example would be really pleased if UKIP got in to power..not..which obviously they won't..they would then lose many future jobs when ukip scrap hs2

they are riding the tide at the moment..but when people look real close.its all spivvy bollox and ultimately a disaster if they get any sort of power

austerity has also turned people off..the banking crisis has made people realise that..we aren't all in it together..in fact its 80% of us thats in it..the it being the sh1t..whilst other 20% are still swanning around at Ascot & henley without a care in the world

mps giving themselves wage rises whilst working people take pay cuts in real terms has also turned people off politicians,,basically they are liars when they say we are all in it together..and when times are hard,,people take note of someone getting what they aren't
 
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I think a lot of people are so well informed nowadays because of the ease with which they can gather information via the Internet that the old days of just putting up with the old two/three party system might not last a whole lot longer.

The days of The Sun being able to decide an election via a front page, those days are done. Within a generation the print media will be dead, and this will hopfeully bring forth a bright new dawn
 
most of the vox pops asking folk why they like UKIP.....don't look like well informed interent savvies to me Euro..they look like chavvy muppets who want drawbridge pulling up..and think spivman will do it...ask them anything else about UKIP and they haven't got a clue what else they represent..now ask em about eastenders,,different game
 
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I think the people who carry out voxpop either cherry pick their interviewees or are told to do one by anyone sensible.
 
As a country we've become obessed with superficial representation through our Royal Family and poltiicans are paying the price.

Lets have Prince Charles run the country a hairdresser said to me the other day. Madness. I think the electorate has become slightly deluded.
 
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tiggers1972 said:
It's not just immigration EC1. Europe is another massive one.
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i think there is a sizeable % of society want drawbridge up though Tiggers..agree though..Europe is part of it..there isn't anything else people ever mention when asked about the Spiv's party though
 
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Euronymous said:
I think the people who carry out voxpop either cherry pick their interviewees or are told to do one by anyone sensible.
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they don't need cherry picking up North Euro..i could walk round our town and first 10 i voxed would be similar types..a bit like the Mony Python women..but younger and with bigger fags hanging out of their gobs

the definition of confusion in many northern areas is.....fathers day
 
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Give it a few years ukip will be a minor party again,most people are naturally left of centre in Britain you take all the labour and liberal votes which will never vote over a long period of time for ukip.The tories must be more worried,as the defections just paves the way for others,it looked bad result for labour last night but over a period of time labour/liberal voters won't stick with ukip its a million.
 
oh clearly...'.ukip will end up like SDP ..just a bunch of turncoats for a start..just same as SDP..they just a warning shot to the big two..we've seen same thing happen through the years..conference in phone box a few years down the line

i doubt any one in their right mind could see UKIP in power..there just aren't enough chavs to get them in for a start
 
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Couple of things

I don't think the Iraq war is an issue now at all

The sdp was not traitors ec. The Labour Party moves away from the centre in a big way . The Labour Party left (excuse the pun) a big chunk of its constituency. The longest suicide note in history etc

Euro.. The print media will survive better than many think.
 
Couple of things

I don't think the Iraq war is an issue now at all

The sdp were not traitors ec. The Labour Party moved away from the centre in a big way . The Labour Party left (excuse the pun) a big chunk of its constituency. The longest suicide note in history etc

Euro.. The print media will survive better than many think.
 
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Tigger is right though. Europe is an issue. The complete failure of the euro and the arrogance of expected further "integration" is nit sitting comfortably with many at all

Immigration is an issue but being a Londoner I don't really give it time of day and ukip polls very badly in London

But warbler is right about the arrogance of the main parties. I saw a piece from diane flabbot throwing race into the ukip question. She hasn't a clue and to continually tarnish those voters in that manner is patronising at best

But overall it's "the economy stupid" and no one is going to take Falange and his mob as serious government for the most vital issue. This is still most likely a blip

I still think that rotherham was an issue too. That's labour now in many people's eyes . Guardian reading idiots with contempt for the white working class
 
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gigilo said:
Give it a few years ukip will be a minor party again,most people are naturally left of centre in Britain you take all the labour and liberal votes which will never vote over a long period of time for ukip.The tories must be more worried,as the defections just paves the way for others,it looked bad result for labour last night but over a period of time labour/liberal voters won't stick with ukip its a million.
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You keep saying that but it depends where the centre is doesnt it?

The hard left probably does worse here than in any other European country. Polls on a lot of issues wouldn't bear out what you say at all

Depends on social or economic liberal/left too

I would certainly say that socially we are pretty liberal and far more at ease on the race question than most European countries. Far more tolerant too

But economically we are much more free market and respectful of wealth creators and smes than across the continent (but not America of course)


Good thread.
 
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clivex said:
I don't think the Iraq war is an issue now at all
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Not an Issue I'd agree, but quite possibly an influence in the way a majority of the population have started to perceive the body politic of the country. I think there's other things that have rolled out afterwards, but the Iraq war possibly started the process. The banking crisis helped undermine trust. Certainly the MP's expenses. We've had the media put in the dock of course, be it phone hacking or the BBC. We've had plebgate. The collective effect I think has been to corode the pillars of the establishment to the point where perhaps people are more receptive to alternatives outside of a mainstream that they've seen let them down. I tend to think UKIP are nearer the Tea Party in concept, but they're occupying a vacuum of distrust which I'm sure they'll ultimately fail on, but which I tend to think won't go away easily this time

I wouldn't like to say where UKIP will end up at the GE, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them covert half of their opinion poll into votes this time, and similarly, I wouldn't be shocked to see Labout defeated in Scotland as well as an emboldened SNP bounces back.

Whether this is a changing landscape or snap of the tail I don't know
 
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It's a bloody good predictor then. That's a quick email you should drop to private eye or the Guardian, or possibly the Telegraph. You'd have thought they were aware of it though
 
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Another thing that occurs to me.

I watched Rudy Guiliani doing an interview a few years ago on 'Reagan Day' espousing the virtues etc when Andrew Neil (again) pointed out that it was all very well the Republicans venerating Reagan, but the current power shift within the party means that Reagan wouldn't win the nomination today. Guiliani laughed explaining that no one had ever suggested this to him before. He paused. He quickly considered it, and said "you know what? you're probably right", and complemented Neil on his perception.

Along the same lines therefore, the Tories have often held 'she who can not be named' in the same exalted status. Indeed, the ever moronic Hague tried to reassure the American ambassador that this current government were a save pair of hands by saying "you've got nothing to worry about, we're all Thatcher's children". The cable that went back to Washington about Hague was not particularly flattering, as well as being slightly bewildered as to just what being a Thatcher child meant? Basically she had no currency with another generation of American's coming from a Democrat background.

It struck me though that if Reagan wouldn't get the Republican nomination, would 'the mad mongoose' actually be a UKIP supporter in today's environment? They're certainly closer to her in areas like welfare reform, NHS, Europe, immigration, and some aspects free trade. I suspect if she were coming at politics afresh, UKIP would be the party she'd most readily identify with
 
clivex said:
Couple of things

I don't think the Iraq war is an issue now at all

The sdp were not traitors ec. The Labour Party moved away from the centre in a big way . The Labour Party left (excuse the pun) a big chunk of its constituency. The longest suicide note in history etc

Euro.. The print media will survive better than many think.
Click to expand...

sdp should have stayed in Labour and corrected what they didn't like...the runaway politician is one thats even less trustworthy than the norm..these that have left to join UKIP are same ilk..no backbone for a fight...so no good as politicians..because fighting for what you believe in should be their mantra.

Labour might wake up soon and realise they need a new leader and they need to get back to the grassroots of why they exist...or change their name as they are not Labour in the eyes of everyday people who are sick of seeing the blueprint of the Blair years continued. Labour might think the Blair years were a great success for Labour..they weren't..they were a great success for Blair
 
Euronymous said:
The days of The Sun being able to decide an election via a front page, those days are done. Within a generation the print media will be dead, and this will hopfeully bring forth a bright new dawn
Click to expand...

Can't agree, Euro.

The right wing media (ie 90% of the media) still dictates what people think.

Anti-Europe headlines.
Anti-Labour/pro-Tory headlines.
Anti-immigration misinformation.
Anti-benefits misinformation.
Economy scare stories while Labour are in power (leaving the financial crisis out of the argument).
Economy feelgood stories while the Tories are in charge (the LDs don't count).
 
The Labour Party was too far gone at that time to justify hanging around. Benn nearly became deputy leader for christs sake. His views were a million miles away from Jenkins Williams etc and they were being true to themselves getting out. As an aside, they disliked him personally too. Regardless of his benign uncle image, he was viewed as sly

What you are saying is that labour should go for the old industrial union vote? Simply put it will not win an election. Blair was a master at convincing centrist voters to vote for him and whichever way you look at it, that is where elections are won.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Can't agree, Euro.

The right wing media (ie 90% of the media) still dictates what people think.

Anti-Europe headlines.
Anti-Labour/pro-Tory headlines.
Anti-immigration misinformation.
Anti-benefits misinformation.
Economy scare stories while Labour are in power (leaving the financial crisis out of the argument).
Economy feelgood stories while the Tories are in charge (the LDs don't count).
Click to expand...

Complete rubbish.

So the mirror, independent and the guardian are less than 10% of newspaper readership? Do me a favour

And if you are referring to the bbc, then I think you need to give examples. I have of what could be perceived as left wing bias.
 
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Warbler said:
Another thing that occurs to me.

I watched Rudy Guiliani doing an interview a few years ago on 'Reagan Day' espousing the virtues etc when Andrew Neil (again) pointed out that it was all very well the Republicans venerating Reagan, but the current power shift within the party means that Reagan wouldn't win the nomination today. Guiliani laughed explaining that no one had ever suggested this to him before. He paused. He quickly considered it, and said "you know what? you're probably right", and complemented Neil on his perception.

Along the same lines therefore, the Tories have often held 'she who can not be named' in the same exalted status. Indeed, the ever moronic Hague tried to reassure the American ambassador that this current government were a save pair of hands by saying "you've got nothing to worry about, we're all Thatcher's children". The cable that went back to Washington about Hague was not particularly flattering, as well as being slightly bewildered as to just what being a Thatcher child meant? Basically she had no currency with another generation of American's coming from a Democrat background.

It struck me though that if Reagan wouldn't get the Republican nomination, would 'the mad mongoose' actually be a UKIP supporter in today's environment? They're certainly closer to her in areas like welfare reform, NHS, Europe, immigration, and some aspects free trade. I suspect if she were coming at politics afresh, UKIP would be the party she'd most readily identify with
Click to expand...

Not a earthly.

She would certainly not want to work with third raters and nutters. Can hardly see her warming to Nigel either

She was no old England nostalgia freak. Quite the opposite and she was 100% metropolitan which ukip certainly isnt
 
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