Head above the parapet...

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,034
I love the snow but one of the down sides to the big freeze was that it interrupted what had been an extended successful spell on the betting front. Only one or two losing Saturdays since the close of the Flat season had rekindled my enthusiasm a wee bit so it is with no little trepidation that I've ventured another foray into the markets today.

Just one bet (technically two, I suppose), though, and it's in the big race, the Lanzarote.

The one that attracts my attention is Micheal [sic] Flips. This one was good enough to run in the Supreme Novices following a smart-looking win at this course in December. He didn't quite run his race at the festival and subsequently disappointed at Aintree. He ran a decent seasonal debut at Ascot in October. He was beaten 4L but the winner went up 8lbs. The runner-up has gone up 4lbs. Next time up, MF ran a similar race in the Gerry Fielden. He hasn't been campaigned intensely and, as a second season novice, is entitled to improve a fair bit on last year's form once he finds his stride. With the rest of this field already having played their hand, I just think MF might be unexposed and potentially ahead of the handicapper. There are obviously risks attached to such presumptions but I reckon the 14/1 on offer is fair compensation so I've ventured ½pt win and 1½pts place (10/3).

Fenix might be a danger but he'd really have to be ready to run to the same level as when he signed off two years ago.
 
I think you make a fair case, DO. The main reservation I'd have is about the ground, which he hasn't run on before.
 
Big against Tazbar in the next at Huntingdon -would be very hopeful of trading out at a profit.Having a small back to lay on Grenoli at 160.
 
Had a small bet on Grenoli myself Luke - looked a revived character in the blinkers last time out and was sure to finish in front of Franchoek last time out and may even have given the winner (Bergo) a scare. 100/1 is too big.
 
Thought William Hogarth had a good chance today like the way he kept on well in a better race last time,and a small bet on Duc De Regniere taking 7lbs off should give him a chance.
 
Jeez, I've only just this minute heard the result (been out all afternoon).

Turtle, it wasn't a tip as such so don't go beating yourself up about it ;)
 
Just watched the race.

I had to convince myself to go through with the bet this morning as I'm not a great fan of Nick Scholfield but I have to say he appeared to ride the horse exactly as I like to see them ridden in those conditions: in the leading group going its own pace and not giving ground away by going wide. It's easy to say with hindsight but a neutral could probably have called him the winner three out.

I don't even regret not being braver and going for a full point each-way.
 
Fairyhouse later on today and for me the big question is has Willie Mullins got his stable in good form.I would be looking at laying the double Scotsirish who doesn't win too much and Cousin Vinny who will be overbet(currently 1.6).
 
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