Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

Grasshopper said:
I'll concede the point that Burton Port and Carruthers have similarities in their overall profiles. I guess the critical difference between the pair is that Carruthers ran from a mark of 146 when he won his Hennessy, whereas Burton Port will- in comparison - be chained to a plough off 166.
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Burton Port is probably a better horse than Trabolgan, which, I think was off 158 when it won, so 166 for BP might not be an impossible, if improbable, task.

Second-season chasers who are likely to be winning G1s later in the season off much higher marks are the way to go in these races. It's usually only when the novices aren't up to much that the more exposed types get a look in.
 
Sometimes the bookies get it right and the fav really is the fav. I'd still fancy Tidal bay if he turns up but the more I look at it the more I think that absolutely everything points to Bobs Worth winning this. He is not badly handicapped, has a touch of class, the ground like in any race to come may end up being a concern but the Hennessy is very stamina dependent and he has loads.
 
Anybody who backed Diamond Harry at Wincanton would have to give him one more bite of the cherry in this surely?

A race he won 2 years back, a track he is 5/6 at (two bumpers, G1 Novice Hurdle, a placing behind Big Bucks, a Novice Chase and this race back in 2010) and off a mark 13lbs lower than when scoring that day.

I'm all for taking a chance on one and providing he goes I've seen far worse 33's chances.

Martin
 
I suspect DH might end up a tad more popular than 33/1 precisely because of his track record and old ability, as Irish Stamp points out. Plenty of punters and pundits latch on to stuff like that. Including yours truly. But I much prefer second-season stayers for this.
 
It could be argued he just hated going right handed. Maybe it was Nicky's plan all along, stick him in a totally unsuitable race to get his mark further reduced.

I'm having a score on Ulis de Vassy today at Market Rasen and if he bounces back (this should suit him better than lto where he founds things happening a bit quick in such a big field) I'll have some of the winnings on DH.
 
Yes, you do have to wonder about the decision to run him there [Wincanton], the only time in his life he's been asked to go right-handed. Plus it's a sharp enough track.
 
I backed DH at Wincanton, Martin. Anyone who saw the race wouldn't have a thruppeny-bit on the horse again. It was a desperate performance, and it didn't look to me to be anything to do with the track - was never travelling or jumping.
 
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I was at Wincanton and i backed him too. Run was horrendous - will no way back again until he shows some form, because he looks gone. A great shame, though I guess he has had more success than many other promising horses.
 
Grasshopper said:
I backed DH at Wincanton, Martin. Anyone who saw the race wouldn't have a thruppeny-bit on the horse again. It was a desperate performance, and it didn't look to me to be anything to do with the track - was never travelling or jumping.
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As did I. The horse is finished. I would be absolutely certain based on that all any of you backing would be doing is throwing money in the bin.
 
Just saying if people were prepared to take 8's about him LTO then the 33's in a race he's won before, a track he loves etc is huge.

I've never backed the horse but don't mind getting involved off this rapidly falling handicap mark.

Martin
 
Horses are only flesh and blood, not machines. They aren't always to be written off just because of a poor spell. Look what Martin Pipe did with the lieks of Beau Ranger and so many others. At this stage of the season, I don't find it hard to overlook poor runs the season before. A break, change of scenery, routine, etc, can do wonders for a horse.

The noises about DH before Wincanton seemed quite upbeat and if he was sent there not expected to win (or maybe win despite not liking the track) it may be contributing to a false price that they can point to a dirty scope rather than a dislike for the track.

One to keep on the radar, I reckon, rather than write off.
 
If the horse scoped badly after Wincanton, who'd want to back him a mere two weeks later?

DH has tremendous track form, no doubt, but it's not exactly contemporary, is it. There have to be better options, imo.
 
Bar the Bull said:
But you backed him LTO.

Pretty big step to go from backing him to saying he is finished, with the only race between one where he scoped badly.

I'd give him (at least) one more chance.
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I've watched around 4 live races in the last 4 months, the Arc excepted which I was at. This was one of them. So, for a bit of fun, I dutched him (because of GH's argument & others on here) and The Package (look ta me copying DO for a minute) to very small amounts. Hence, it was nothing to do with me fancying him (or The Package).

Ps, I lost winnings within 30 mins.
Pps, learning that boylesports website allows me to watch racing live outside UK&I on an ipad after having a bet is a dangerous game.
 
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Grasshopper said:
If the horse scoped badly after Wincanton, who'd want to back him a mere two weeks later?

DH has tremendous track form, no doubt, but it's not exactly contemporary, is it. There have to be better options, imo.
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Plenty of better options, no doubt. But better 33/1 shots? Less likely.
 
Grasshopper said:
Long Run barely reached mid-160's that day, EC1, let alone Burton Port. Subsequent outings for merely amplified that fact. BP faces a sterner test in the Hennessy than he did in the AON/Denman Chase (imo). Big field, end-to-end gallop, conceding weight to more progressive types - I just can't have it that he's got the tools in the box to emerge the winner.
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i'm not sure i can see that LR didn't hit at least a 170 tbh..probably more

Long Runs rating using each horse in the race: [OHR's]

Tidal Bay = 186
The Giant Bolster = 176
What A Friend = 184
Burton Port = 171

Just using BP's rating makes LR a 171 horse..the Giant Bolster also points to early/mid 170's..

could be argued TGB is the horse to rate the race off. Other two can be ignored.

I'm not seeing the barely reaching mid 160's tbh...in fact i'd say TGB is a reliable stick here
 
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No secret that Burton Port is behind in his work apparently which makes things even more difficult for him. Impossible even.

Probably the only way he'll run is if Tidal Bay comes out and his defection would mean Bobsworth carrying a few pounds more.
 
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