Royal Pegaille was rated 2 lbs higher than Minella Indo before yesterday. That just can't be right, not when the latter had been placed in a race that consistently throws up Gold Cup contenders.
It's right based on the evidence.
The RSA often throws up Gold Cup contenders but it is a race for novices who are about a year short of maturity.
That said, it highlights something I've mentioned before, namely that the big handicapping organisations are slaves to their procedures and race standards. A lone wolf can rate them as s/he sees fit and really only has him/herself to answer to and will profit or lose by his/her figures and interpretation.
I had no problem with Royale Pagaille's big rating. He hammered some reliable handicappers at Haydock but the heavy ground (v) might have played a part. He had previously smashed the clock to bits at Kempton, form franked by Cap Du Nord. He got the first wrong yesterday, which put him on the back foot, and proceeded to hit several fences afterwards. It's a run I would be willing to put a line through. He's still only seven.
My figures going into yesterday were:
[TABLE="width: 393"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Native River
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD]178
[/TD]
[TD]?? s
[/TD]
[TD]181
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Kemboy
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD]177
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Al Boum Photo
[/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]179
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Santini
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[TD]+p nov
[/TD]
[TD]177
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Frodon
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lostintranslation
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Champ
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]? nov
[/TD]
[TD]174
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Minella Indo
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD]+ nov
[/TD]
[TD]174
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Royale Pagaille
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD]++ v
[/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] A Plus Tard
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Aso
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Black Op
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
I had a good mark for Black Op relative to his OR and he did extremely well to stay with the pace for so long.
I had serious questions about Native River's Sandown win but it looked very good at the time.
I queried the mark I had for Kemboy but that was because it was his old OR which I could really 'buy' but left it there in the table for some element of possibility.
ABP's rating is based on his established form.
MI's and APT's are based on developing form.
The figures are there to help envisage how events might unfold as much as how they stand.