Horses to follow - Flat

A

Aragorn

At the Start
Joined
Apr 16, 2009
Messages
3,698
We have a winning sequence thread but I thought it would be worth having somewhere to flag up horses we like and are worth following either throughout the season or next time out.

I'll start the ball rolling with Burwaaz. Loved this horse last year but he was only just getting 5 furlongs. I'm hoping with a winter on his back he will have settled and strengthened and if he has I can see him winning some top sprints this year. He might be one to catch first time up as well.
 
Keep an eye on Sir MIchael Stout's Councel and Class Win they should add some CC's to your betting machine. You can ignore the former's run at Docaster he'll put that well behind him soon as will Class Win who had a nice introduction at Kempton. Sea Moon is one you can't afford to follow he'll be a much better horse this year.

John Gosden was more than pleased with Shantaram when a very unlucky loser last time. He's entered for the Dante with good reason.
 
Aerodynamic will be carrying my cash at early prices, looking at the last run and given connections I think it'll be profitable over it's next few outings.
 
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If i ever get chance will put some together had quite a few noted but they've won on their next runs so i've crossed them off.I need some 2yr olds but they've all been pretty mediocre so far,probably end of may in time for the bigger meetings.
 
TEMPUS FUGIT ran a nice second at Kempton yesterday, only her second run and showing signs of greenness.

She is out of Diary who previous produce Total Gallery winner of the L'Abbaye in 2009 and a full-sister Lady Darshaan placed in the Fillies Mile at Ascot in 2009.

With those relatives it is surprising to see her running on at the end of 12f. but that was what she appeared to be doing.

She has no fancy entries but looks worth keeping an eye on.
 
Saturday Doncaster 6.55 MILIIKA, making her racecourse debut, was held up at the back until half-way then made rapid headway down the outside of the field, hung left not aiding the cause of at least two of her opponents, led a furlong out and just run out of it close home.

Will have learnt a great deal from this run and Rae Guest, who has a nice touch with fillies, will find races for her.
 
Use these ratings as SUPREME form to follow for around 2 weeks backing runners next time out blind given they have run well enough behind the winner.

You won't get better judgement than these horses, believe me you're lucky to have me posting this sort of info from Bruce Savage.

Part 1

Races To Follow 16th April - 7th May

SUGAR BEET (95) Windsor
Value has gone from this race now with many running hot races at varying tracks and should only be used when horses go back to Windsor now.

Confidence: 4/5

AL KHAWANEEJ (87) Wolverhampton
Decent figure for the distance, should prove good enough form.

Confidence: 2/5

TANNERY (90) Dundalk
The winner won at 12/1 this weekend which is going to make the field short next time out but could still defy the public imagination.

Confidence: 3/5

HAJRAS (93) Ripon
Easy winner, big time.

Confidence: 4/5

SHESTHEMAN (85) Wolverhampton
Interesting, no more than a Handicapping effort though.

Confidence: 2/5

INTENSE PINK (99) Pontefract
Was going to keep this one to myself but the horse looks a Group 2 sprinter and would back it heavily next time out - form has produced a winner or two.

Confidence: 5/5

RIGHT STEP (98) Epsom
Guaranteed to be underestimated by the punters & bookmakers, on visual evidence he looks like a Handicapper and people think they know all about him but he's a Group 2 performer and will go off a big price in pattern class which we can take advantage off.

The form should be worth its weight in gold.

Confidence: 5/5

The GALLOPING SHOE (91) Haydock
Been around the block a bit now and looks exposed but threatened to put up a performance like this. The horse will go under the radar by punters & bookmakers alike, the form on face value looks average but the performance was a very high handicapping standard.

Confidence: 4/5



More to follow....
 
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Bruce_Savage said:
The GALLOPING SHOE (91) Haydock
Been around the block a bit now and looks exposed but threatened to put up a performance like this. The horse will go under the radar by punters & bookmakers alike, the form on face value looks average but the performance was a very high handicapping standard.

Confidence: 4/5
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Amazing Blue Sky the first horse come out of the race wins today at 4/1 having landed a massive £825 E/W @ 4/1.

The horse was taken on for the lead in that race by Fourth Generation and passed by him but actually fought back in the end to go past Fourth Generation and stay on strongly towards the finish.

Stay tuned to this thread.
 
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Part 2

Races To Follow 16th April - 7th May

FAMOUS POET (87) Kempton
This should prove useful for future reference when it comes to Class 4-5 Handicaps on the All Weather in future - the winner could be worth a small Handicap again somewhere.

Confidence: 2/5

INDIAN ART (86) Wolverhampton
Nothing to get excited about although I am sure if you're playing in the week and you manage to find something hidden away under this race then they will be worth a their chance - nothing to take into a big meeting.

Confidence: 2/5

WAR POET (95) Doncaster
Exciting proposition, the winner come home quite easily so it might overate the others in behind but I'm sure this rating could be bought into a Saturday Meeting at big prices especially on soft.

Confidence: 3/5

NAMEITWHATYOULIKE (90) Doncaster
Nice rating by an unfashionable stable although it's sort of what you'd come to expect for a 3 year old Handicap around June-July the performance may go unnoticed in the coming weeks.

Confidence: 3/5

SHESACHARACTER (90) Doncaster
Didn't think she had this in her locker and it's quite a strong effort although use this form wisely as I think it may be hard to get the form to work strongly throughout the country at bigger courses - might need to use it for a drop in class.

Confidence: 3/5

THACKERAY (91) Haydock
Very strong time, the third has already come out and won in a strong time which I'll be putting up as well - the prices may have been gone now and we'd be on a tight line with the bookmakers and public probably catching on to the strength of performance.

Confidence: 4/5

COLOR VISION (105) Haydock
An absolutely emphatic performance from Color Vision putting him down as one of the most exceptional stayers of the season to look forward too. The horse will go on to win a Group 1 and he will remain unbeaten providing there are no hard luck stories, he's a serious prospect and will win a Melbourne Cup for Godolphin if they want to aim for it.

Confidence: 5/5

TILSWORTH GLENBOY (94) Yarmouth
Tremendous soft ground performer at this grade who could go onto win a much better handicap, I've already got a line through him with the Haydock race further up the page but this Yarmouth form will be rock solid too.

Confidence: 4/5

JOCASTA DAWN (90) Yarmouth
Wanted to keep this performance too myself but I'm feeling generous and willing to risk losing a price on the form but Jocasta Dawn looks a lovely sprinter in the making and is bound to land two or three races this season.

Rock solid.

Confidence: 4/5

SHAZHAN (92) Doncaster
To the naked eye you would see a lightly raced 4 year old giving weight to a highly uninspiring field and you'd be mistaken for passing this race on when reading the cards if you ever come across it but DONT.

This is a highly promising time & performance from the winner, it really could work out exceptionally well and I'm sure we'll make good money from this race.

Confidence: 4/5

FARHH (101) Thirsk
An absolute tank of a performance from a Group horse in a handicap travelling wide throughout he was never off the bridle dispatching some of the most tough & stern Northern Handicappers in this Thirsk Hunt Cup with ease.

The winner will be no price next time out unless he's running in France or Group 1 level which is disappointing but those in behind will be judged a little less given the winners ease which will increase our value.
Confidence: 4/5
 
Bruce_Savage said:


FARHH (101) Thirsk
An absolute tank of a performance from a Group horse in a handicap travelling wide throughout he was never off the bridle dispatching some of the most tough & stern Northern Handicappers in this Thirsk Hunt Cup with ease.

The winner will be no price next time out unless he's running in France or Group 1 level which is disappointing but those in behind will be judged a little less given the winners ease which will increase our value.
Confidence: 4/5[/FONT]
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The whole world knows about this horse now so how can you possibly find 'value' with it?
 
Slim Chance,

It's not just the winner we're supposed to be following but the strength of the races these horse's are winning means the form of those in behind are going to be very strong and you'll make money of those in behind who have run legitimately well.

I will be backing a few from the race next time out even if they have been thrashed by the winner - people will see that side of things, Osteopathic Remedy will be a 10/1 shot in his next race, providing he's not meeting too many again from the race he would have to be a good bet.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Slim Chance,

It's not just the winner we're supposed to be following but the strength of the races these horse's are winning means the form of those in behind are going to be very strong and you'll make money of those in behind who have run legitimately well.

I will be backing a few from the race next time out even if they have been thrashed by the winner - people will see that side of things, Osteopathic Remedy will be a 10/1 shot in his next race, providing he's not meeting too many again from the race he would have to be a good bet.
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So those in behind will be a good bet because they were hammered by a good horse?
 
I flagged this horse up on last years Derby thread. FTO last year and Thirsk were the times to back him.
 
I did FTO last year (I think I flagged it on here) but I didn't know he was running at Thirsk until I saw the result.
 
Aragorn said:
I flagged this horse up on last years Derby thread. FTO last year and Thirsk were the times to back him.
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Good man Aragon. The Johnny come lately throws around the 'Group horse in a handicap' statement to make his case. The dogs on the street are barking this horses name.
 
Slim Chance,

Are you under the impression these horses are plucked from thin air?

Unlike your supposed inside information these races will be profitable for members on here as they are based on solid track performance and I have already shown today the potential power of them through Amazing Blue Sky.
 
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I'm a big fan of this horse and to be honest I was surprised he was running in a handicap but then the handicapper was clearly miles off rating him 100.

He'll be running in group 1's this year, maybe even at Royal Ascot. Will be intrigued to see if they go10f or stick at a mile with him.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Part 2

SHESACHARACTER (90) Doncaster
Didn't think she had this in her locker and it's quite a strong effort although use this form wisely as I think it may be hard to get the form to work strongly throughout the country at bigger courses - might need to use it for a drop in class.

Confidence: 3/5
Click to expand...

We have ourselves a runner from the She's A Character performance at Doncaster last week. The runner is PAINTED TAIL (74) who went straight into the lead before weakening at the three furlong pole where she dropped to seventh before finding another wind to stay on again into 4th under hands n heels.

The horse come 4l clear of Climaxfortackle whose 1-3 in Class 4's getting the mile well and probably further, she was finishing behind Junkett in third pretty well who is a decent enough filly in the ground and sees the mile out very well.

If you had put those two in today's races you'd of seen them around 3/1 shots which puts Painted Tail in a nice position although the double drop down in grade hasn't done our selves any favours at the prices as I'd of taken her on again at Class 4.

Think we could have ourselves a nice little bet here but on the cautious side you'd have to say she might be looking a little bit "tripless" having raced from 12f to 10f then to 8f staying on well in each of them.

Might get away with it today though given Southwell is favoring pace.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Slim Chance,

Are you under the impression these horses are plucked from thin air?

Unlike your supposed inside information these races will be profitable for members on here as they are based on solid track performance and I have already shown today the potential power of them through Amazing Blue Sky.
Click to expand...

What's all this inside information nonsense about. My point is they got hammered. They are no more likely to prove profitable than a random choosing of horses. If you would like to put this to the test I'm willing to wager on it.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
SHESTHEMAN (85) Wolverhampton
Interesting, no more than a Handicapping effort though.

Confidence: 2/5
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We have a runner from this race at Chester today (15:40) called FLEETING IMAGE (80) trained by Alan Bailey ridden by Natasha Eaton.

Now, I'm less optimistic about this horses chances although at Wolverhampton she dueled with Henry Cecil's Epoque for much of the way before trying to find another gear in the straight but stayed on the one paced.

The form looks solid through Aniseed but the runner up isn't going to be anything special and she may be well out of her depth here but given she's a stayer then the less "headway" sorts in the field the better for her chances given her running style out in front and I can only really see Linkable + Badea being under that category.

I wouldn't mind taking a chance on her if she was 20/1 although unless the team knows she's going to be advantaged by the soft then there might not be much point sending her here unless the think she's ready to win such a race given they are avoiding running her in a handicap for the present.

Maybe watch the market for this one.
 
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Tanlic said:
John Gosden Fencing is crying out for a step up in trip. He runs like he'd get 12f and could be a good ew bet for the Derby
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Not convinced about him for the Derby myself. They were talking about him as a French Derby type earlier in the season.

He's in the Dante and the Derby, but also in the St James's Palace Stakes. I get the impression they are still guessing with him.
 
swedish chef said:
http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic31_39661.html
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As I said before, lots of interesting unraced ones in this thread. I wont have the time to watch out for them, so there's probably a few winners and losers already but if I do spot one occasionally, I'll throw it in the mix.

Runs at Chester today.

BetterBetterBetter
Galileo – Jude
A P O’Brien
Closely related to 3 other fillies who all have been placed in the Oaks including Yesterday that won the Irish 1000 guineas. The fillies are clearly better in this family.


Father of Science - 5th in a 10f Navan maiden on debut.
Galileo – Kasora
A P O'Brien
He is the Half Brother to High Chaparral and also Dante winner Black Bear Island.
 
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