How is Samcro odds against....

Slim said:
Using meaningless stats in a race not that old is pointless.
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Not especially given that the general profile of a horse who wins a "speedy" novice chase at the festival is that of a young, unexposed improver. The exceptions being outstanding talents. Comparatively speaking, Samcro is an exposed crock who's just shy of the top level.
 
Bachelors Hall said:
Not especially given that the general profile of a horse who wins a "speedy" novice chase at the festival is that of a young, unexposed improver. The exceptions being outstanding talents. Comparatively speaking, Samcro is an exposed crock who's just shy of the top level.
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How in the name of God is he exposed over fences?
 
He's exposed as a racehorse with issues whose hype exceeds his ability. Compared to his opponents, he has much less in the way of untapped potential.
 
Bachelors Hall said:
He's exposed as a racehorse with issues whose hype exceeds his ability. Compared to his opponents, he has much less in the way of untapped potential.
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I agree he was completely overhyped but now the market has gone the other way completely writing him off. If they have the wind issue sorted he can run to form there is nothing in the likely field I would be afraid of.
 
I think this is his third wind op or adjustment though Slim. If the first 2 didn’t work this will hardly do the trick. I’d say myself he’s a great work horse who sets the gallops ablaze but when it cones down to a battle he doesn’t want to know.


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If he had stood up against Fakir and had Faugheen not ran at Limerick he would be one of the hottest favs of the week. There is enough juice in the price to give him one last chance
 
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Slim said:
If he had stood up against Fakir and had Faugheen not ran at Limerick he would be one of the hottest favs of the week. There is enough juice in the price to give him one last chance
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If he couldn't stand up against Fakir, he's a lot less chance of having the speed to stay upright at the Festival.
 
Slim said:
There aren't any good horses in the Msrsh Chase.
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Probably not, but neither is he.

Best of luck like, and I do see your thinking, I just can’t have him. Which could also be biased as I’ve been all over Itchy Feet for a while in this race.
 
Slim said:
There aren't any good horses in the Msrsh Chase.
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I'm not sure I agree with this. I think it's a decent race this year. But also concede that if Samcro were back to his very best he'd win it.

I'm on Samcro from way back at 16/1 but he's not one I'm expecting to win. The price is fair enough so I'll leave a bit of it to ride, but I'd be concerned about him folding. Something is definitely troubling him, or has been, and in his head he doesn't seem to want to dig deep anymore. When he comes off the bridle he's folded too often, and in a Championship race at Championship pace it's likely he'll come off the bridle.

If, and it's a bit if, Gordon has found the key to the problem though he'd win this comfortably. So if you agree that's the case, then it all depends on what price is worth finding out, and if 7/1 is the price and you think it's better than a 15% chance then that seems fair enough to me.
 
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What an incredible race! To see the boys from yesteryear roll back the years was something special. I think Gordon Elliot to get Samcro back to that level is genius.
 
Shout, Slim!

Melon very unlucky - in front an inch before the line and going away after it. Then again, had Melon won we'd be saying Samcro would have been unlucky with the mistake two out.

Great finish but I'm not sure it was a great race.
 
that was a great race by the proper definition of what a great race - as in one that will live in the memory - maybe the form is not top notch but can anyone say that for certain if samcro and melon have returned to their best form over hurdles and i'd say the fisher is decent yardstick.

all that was good about nH racing

champ aside, uk novice chasers exposed as modest lot
 
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