Hurricane Fly - Beatable in the Morgiana?

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I think so. After his lacklustre Cheltenham effort there must be some doubt about whether he retains his ability at the highest level. He bounced back next time at Punchestown, but that was expected, he was still a fresh horse.

He's officially rated 173, Istabraq was only ever rated at a high of 176 and won three champion hurdles on the bounce, a classic case of an overrated horse and Hurricane Fly is no Istabraq. The horse I think can beat him is the mare Unaccompanied. Still only a 5yo, fit and well from some recent flat races, she looked a future star when winning the Istabraq Hurdle last season, beating two good yardsticks in Thousand Stars and Oscars Well.

Only beat the former by a length and a half and Oscars Wells 3.5 lengths, and Hurricane Fly went on to beat them both a bit further in the Irish Champion, (where Unaccompanied ran no sort of race it has to be said). However, this mare gets 7 pounds on Sunday, seems to travel that bit better on heavy ground, is open to any amount of improvement and I think she can beat Hurricane Fly on Sunday.
 
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Possibly is. If i learned one thing last season it was to never get lulled into a cocoon of invincibility again with a horse

I wish him luck and still have belief in the horse but watching brief Sunday
 
This is Hurricane Fly we're talking about here not some old crock..Of course he'll win. It was blatantly obvious he wasn't right last year....remember how worried WM as before his first race? Win or no win there's no smoke without fire as we found out at Cheltenham

I have no doubt in my mind he'll hack up and Mullins will have him spot on for this.

Why wouldn't he?........He simply can't depend on him winning another Champion Hurdle with so much new blood around.

So like Aiden does on the flat with his older horses grab what you can while you can and then with the money in the pot if he does win the Champion Hurdle again then that's a big bonus.

He'll pi$$ up IMO
 
Mullins is not a stable on form - of that there is no doubt. But this is the fly....running against the square root of feck all. If he gets beat Grassy will probably top himself! :blink:
 
Was supposed to visit the Mullins yard a couple of weeks ago but had to pull out of the trip at short notice, but the others who went spent a couple of hours in the company of WM around the place and at that time he had a couple of horses who were coughing and so none of his horses were using the main gallops, just the circular small gallop nearby. I've noticed since then he's not had many runners, indeed some have been pulled out eg So Young, allegedly lame, but you just wonder.
 
I think the Fly is unbeatable on soft ground but beatable at championship level on decent ground. Just my own opinion. He should win easily at the weekend as he goes well fresh and has tactical speed if its a falsely run race. Opposition will not be particularly strong bar Go Native.

Mullins horses running in and out. They may be over the bug but would have missed a week so could improve for the run. Another week or two should see them back to where they were anyway.
 
You'd certainly expect he'd be having more runners than he's had but the ones he's running are running ok and he has abundle entered over the next few days...more than half of them have been placed which doesn't really send out alarm bells.

Go Native would be the biggest danger but the 2 occasion they have met the minute Hurricane Fly has gone near him he spat out the dummy. I used to call him Son of Harchibald, he's certainly not ahorse who I'd want to back in a fight and a fight is the very least you'd expect from Hurricane Fly.
 
What price the Fly on Sunday then..... and I was shell-shocked that neither him or Binocular won the Champion Hurdle this year...obviously not their true running..though AP and Ruby were busy psyching each other whilst those at the front got on with the race much quicker !

Surely Rock On Ruby is not better than either of them at their best ??
 
If :6 "wasnt right all last year" its some leap of faith to assume hes goong to suddenly bé firing again

Not for me. Suspect weve seen the best of him now
 
But the Morgiana isn't the Champion Hurdle Clive and I'd have thought no one will assume too much until after the race.......to completely write off such a talent without looking first would be a mistake

Incidentally AS Binocular is still in Ireland chewing lumps of grass so it will be sometime before we see him.
 
Great thread.

Here's what I think. Hurricane Fly is a very good Champion Hurdler. He is not very durable, however.

That said, the fact remains that when he has made it to the racecourse since coming over from France, he has just been beaten twice. And both of those performances would probably be good enough to win this weekend.

I make him a 1/3 shot, but I don't see him winning another Champion Hurdle.
 
Nice win by Tarla at Clonmel. You'd like to think the Fly will be 99% if he's going to run tomorrow. So he should be long odds on.
 
If the pre Cheltenham fly turns up then it's a no contest but he wasn't right at the festival (coupled with a poor ride IMO) and if that fly turns up Go Native will push him very close.
 
hoping the meeting gets go ahead in a few hours time but no idea the severity of the frost situation in Ireland.

Hurricane Fly probably the right price but can still can get turned over.

Unaccompanied has lots of heavy ground form and I don't think the Irish Champion Hurdle last season can be attributed to that, she was just very below par that day. I'd have her over Go Native in terms of the main opposition to Hurricane Fly anyway, and I think she should be no igger than about 9/2.
 
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Isn't Captain Cee Bee better than his odds in a three runner race, given conditions, and possible holes in the others?

I thought he was impressive in beating fit Rebel Fitz last time out and likely to be fully tuned up for this.

16/1 and nearly 4/1 to be second to Hurricane Fly. (bet3.65 f/c)
 
Race was won in the ten strides before the last. Go Native 1/2l further back than he needed to be. Also, would trust Hurricane Fly to go through with it more in a battle.
 
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