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Ideas On Laying.

walsworth

walsworth

Journeyman
Joined
Jul 19, 2006
Messages
2,215
Location
North Herts
Our recently joined members laying thread has rekindled my interest in laying horse.

I’m not as brave as him and laying anything bigger than 6.2 gives me a squeaky bum, mind you it could be chemo doing that.

I will rarely post any suggestions before the race as I don’t often place the bet until the last minute or so.

My modus operandi will be to look mainly at handicaps of 9 or more runners and seek out horses that have had half a dozen or so races in the current season without winning.

I will be aiming at four successful lays and then going down the pub to spend the winnings.

Any comments either useful or downright stupid would be appreciated.
 
Backing a handicapper at under the price you suggest who hasnt won for a few runs is asking for trouble. As hes losing his mark is dropping and possibly dropping in class. Just from a handicapping perspective id rather look for one whos won a couple then finished 2nd a couple of times as more than likely the handicapper has got a hold on him. Amd the thing with horses that finish 2nd a couple of times after winning usually go up a few more pounds for running well. So in effect in there next races they are running off higher marks than they failed to win of recently and previously yet will still be fairly short in the betting being expected to run well.

With any of these things I wouldn't just do that blind, changes in trip ground courses can for a horse being beat last time or improving next time but as a rule you want horses for who the next task is getting more difficult not easier running under relatively the same conditions as hes been beat previously.

P.s I love you Walsworth so wish you well punting for pints !
 
Thats fair enough but I think my point still stands. If you're looking for horses that haven't won yet but they are at a shorter price there is a reason they are a shorter price whatever they've been doing previously they are obviously more fancied for that day at least for some reason. They aren't being priced at 5/1 if they have shown nothing thus far and are complete no hopers.

If you are laying for me you have to go against the crowd as logically its the only thing that makes sense. Champion jockey rides are always overbet. Can you make money from punting all of Sean bowens mounts ? If the answer is no then there is money to be made laying them.

Overnight plunges ? Can you make money backing them after they've been plunged on ? No so in theory once a horse has been plunged on overnight lay him at the bottom end. If you know how to time it most horses that have been plunged ridiculously short by between 8am and 10am will inevitably drift back out a bit before the off. We've all been on at the top end atbsome point had horses backed off the boards only for them not to win anyway. Laying them at a quarter of the price they were the night before has to be profitable long term.

Thats my view on it all. Just stay away from those plunges your master is on and you should be fine.
 
Danny said:
Just stay away from those plunges your master is on and you should be fine.
Click to expand...
Best advice you'll read on this forum this century, frankly.

I initially misread the thread title as ideas for "lying" - shame, really, as I consider myself one of Britain's finest liars.

The purist art of bookmaking is getting every horse in the book at as short a price as possible.

Laying individual horses isn't the same but the same principle applies.

A minute before the Off, the market is at its most efficient - identifying potential drifters you don't fancy and getting them laid earlier at hopefully shorter might an idea.

But I rarely lay horses - it's like backing every other runner and I seldom give every other runner a chance.

If I don't fancy one that's opened up short, I'd rather have a selective backer's book against it.
 
Ian_Davies said:
But I rarely lay horses - it's like backing every other runner and I seldom give every other runner a chance.

If I don't fancy one that's opened up short, I'd rather have a selective backer's book against it.
Click to expand...


Id be exactly the same on that point of view.
 
I’ve never gone down the route of laying a horse personally but I do often give info back to my bookie at the points I go to with paddock views on well fancied horses if I can tell they’re not ready. Especially early in the season or if punters are getting stuck into a favourite in a maiden from a big yard and I can see it’s not much physically. And I will get a bit of a reward for it which is nice if it pays off. It’s purely done on my paddock inspection which is usually pretty accurate.

However I was sweating a bit at a track called Buckfastleigh last season when I confidently told him that a Tom Ellis trained maiden couldn’t possibly win as it was a little rat of a thing. It duly set off in front Jumping like a bunny with me thinking “oh bollox, I’ve messed up royally here!” Anyway rounding the bottom turn on characteristically tacky ground there, it emptied like it had been shot and I think pulled up. I breathed a huge sigh of relief and went to receive my pocket money.....😎
 
I've been to the races a couple of times with a guy who kept horses himself and he would watch them closely in the parade ring, from which he seem to glean a lot.

Plus there's been plenty times I've watched the betting market change as the runners enter the parade ring, so it's obviously a worthwhile skill
 
Yesterday I was successful in getting the first four selections beaten. Unfortunately I was greedy and went for one more which won doing hand springs.

I lost discipline then, as I am prone to do, and dived in without too much thought. Managed to finish up slightly down on the day but hopefully it was a lesson learned.
 
Have been experimenting with laying again but still find it hard work.
One idea that I have been using is to lay in the two places market rather than win market, this keeps liability down. Not much liquidity admittedly but sufficient for my stakes.
I have also noticed that it can be an advantage on Betfair to ask for a slightly lower price than the available one and leave your bet ‘in running’.
 
Normally, I hope that horses I back shorten in price and if they do I will usually add to my bet on that market confirmation. Sometimes they then shorten again and since you started the thread I’ve often wondered whether I should be laying them at that price to lock in a certain profit. Never tried it, nor given it more than idle thought.
 
Very busy Monday, which is a surprise, so we have 3 offerings today.
Some risky ones in here so it’s up to you as always to make the final decision.
Bit lengthy as well so apologies for that.

1300 Redcar Night Wolf
Market says a risky one to start the day off with !
Lots of nagging little questions here that make this a lay especially at the price being touted.
Horse ran a good race last time out and takes 3 Class drops today. That was on Good/Firm ground, and it gets to try good/soft today.
Sire over the last 5 years has a course record of 1/36. As far as 2yo’s go that becomes 0/13.
The general record with 2yo’s in today’s going is 4/54 and interestingly the Non-Handicap races are 0/35.
Trainer with 2yo’s has a 5yr record of 1/40 and that is both turf and AW.
Turf wise it becomes 1/29. The winner was back in May 2023 and the losing run is 25.
In relation to Horses that have been off course for 60+ days the trainers 2 yr record is 1/42.
Jockey with 2yo’s on turf and AW has a 5 yr record of 1/64. Turf wise that becomes 1/39.
The winner was as per the trainers, and his losing run sits at 28.
Jockey at the Course the last 5 years is 4/40 and CD wise that becomes 0/11.
The quality of its last race is far better than any of these have tried but they are 2yo’s is the possibility that first run was as good as it gets at the moment.
At the price, with all the nagging questions above it has to be opposed on risk/reward basis.

1610 Newcastle Jez Bomb
Horse takes a triple class drop, but this is the level he generally competes in.
AW record of 3/7 and has won at this course.
However, he’s never won over further than 9 ½ furlongs on any surface and the record over today’s distance is 0/6.
Its highest winning mark on the AW has been 62 and he’s allocated 70 today, so 8lbs higher.
The highest winning mark on either surface has been 66 so 4lbs higher than his best winning mark in general.
Sire over the last 5 years has a distance record on both surfaces of 1/27 so breeding suggests this is unlikely to suit.
Trainer at the Course the last 5 years is 7/96 but CD wise that becomes 1/18.
Horse is joint topweight, higher in the ratings than it’s ever been and at a distance it doesn’t seem to like. The only plus is the Jockey who has won on him 5/16.
I still think the whole profile states that this will be too much.

1645 Newcastle Montezin
Only 5 runners which I normally avoid but couldn’t let this one pass by.
Sire is Wootton Bassett who has a 5yr record with 3yo’s at this course of 2/26.
His overall 5 yr record here is 8/67 and all winners have come at 7 furlongs or higher.
Trainer at the Course the last 5 years is 42/584 and with 3yo’s that becomes 4/51.
The record with 3yo’s in Non-Handicaps is 1/17 and the losing run sits at 16.
Jockey at the Course over the last 5 years with 3yo’s is 8/184. But in Non-Handicaps that becomes 1/63 and the sole winner was back in November 2020. That losing run sits at 62.
To put it more into context, at all AW courses over the last 5 years with 3yo’s in Non-Handicaps his record is 2/176.
I prefer Proud To Be Fox and Miss Mendoza in this race, with the latter having a good tapeta record.
Night Storm is an interesting running as through breeding it should fully take to this surface and may improve now a year older.
Jockey and the odds with this one don’t fit well for me and opposable.
 

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