Imperial Cup Sandown Sat March 12th 2016

EC1 said:
yes..backed it when last ran here..it should have beaten Rayvin Black that day but went way too soon
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And this time she doesn't put him in the fu*king race [emoji849]


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was never going imo..had two of those today now..you know your fate after 4 obstacles when they under pressure at that point..these races are alright for watching imo..not serious betting opportunities..for me anyway..same next week..its the specatacle i like....but when races are so competitive its very hard to get an edge. I like midweek meetings where you get hosses running against weaker oppo mesen...thats both codes
 
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The IC today was a weird race.

Having backed Clayton, Rayvin Black and Ebony Express I was happy enough to see them all fairly prominent off what looked a slow pace but all three stopped as if shot.

Then Graham Cunningham tells us they were 15 lengths slower from a certain distance out compared with the earlier lower-class race so the ground must have been pretty bad if they looked to be going slow yet were obviously not. (Ie, they were going too fast for the conditions.)
 
The mares bumper suggests that the track was pretty testing. The winner ran on the outside, hung badly, was being reigned in to get her under control, ran lose to a furlong further as a consequence, and still won.
 
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Maruco said:
The mares bumper suggests that the track was pretty testing. The winner ran on the outside, hung badly, was being reigned in to get her under control, ran lose to a furlong further as a consequence, and still won.
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The ground yesterday wasn't as bad as its been in the past...slow enough though...It weighed in at -44 on universal going scale i use which is Soft [Heavy places].

The Imperial Cup was a gruelling finish suggesting that being near the front end was tough.

These are some of the previous 2 mile races run at Sandown..some on slower ground than yesterday. The finishing % compare finishing speed with overall race speed..the lower % is the tougher the pace. I don't measure from the second last hurdle as they move it around a bit. I measure from a known point approx 2.25f out.

RaceYearHorseFinish%
Imperial Cup2010QASPAL95.0
Imperial Cup2011ALARAZI91.5
Imperial Cup2013FIRST AVENUE92.9
Imperial Cup2014BALTIMORE ROCK96.8
Imperial Cup2015EBONY EXPRESS85.7
Imperial Cup
2016FLYING ANGEL87.4
32Red Hcp2016RAYVIN BLACK95.8
32Red Hcp2013LORD OF HOUSE102.8
32Red Hcp2012CICERON101.0
32Red Hcp2011MILLE CHIEF94.9

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The par finish ..or efficiently run indicator ..at Sandown is lower than most tracks with the stiff finish. The median figure for an efficiently run affair over this trip is about 95%.

Flying Angel was finishing far slower than par on 87.4% suggesting the pace was very strong overall to tire horses out like that. The ground isn't part of the equation as all figures are derived from overall time. For instance..when Lord Of House scooted home his time was 10 seconds slower than yesterday..when First Avenue won.. again it was on slower ground than yesterday. The ground conditions don't affect how slow the finishing % is..only the pace is affecting it.

What makes looking at this worthwhile is that it can help to highlight horses that ran well against the pace of the race for future use.

Starting with Alarasi's race..a strong pace at 91.5%..Pateese was with the pace and did best of those near it..won within 3 races.

First Avenue's race..pretty tough pace..Kazillian did will to be near it..,,but never ran again until December

Ebony Express..crushing pace..85.7..only two hosses were near it..one was a remarkable run by Rayvin Black..that run told you he was better than a 131 hoss..but he didn't do his winning within 3 races...but that run told you there was more to come from him. The other on pace disadvantaged hoss was Camping ground..that run told you he was better than a 150..hoss..you had to wait a bit..but won at 10/1 within 3 runs

Yesterdays race was real sapper ..87.4%...and the one to take from it is Solstice Star who was near the pace which was hard to do and still have any chance of winning.....look what being on the pace did to Rayvin Black for instance..beaten 29 lengths..so solstice star has beaten the other on pace hoss by 24 lengths.

Solstice Star can win again..may get a price about him as well as many will think his run has come to an end..ie handicapper caught up with him
 
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