Improving Race Reading Skills

U

urbanhermit

At the Start
Joined
Apr 25, 2018
Messages
9
Hello

New member so be gentle with me!

I wanted to see if anyone could offer specific advise on how to improve my race reading skills.

By which, I mean watching a race and being able to anticipate when a jockey is about to produce a horse, when a horse is struggling, non triers etc.

Best wishes

Urbanhermit
 
I don't do it all the time, but often when I watch a race with the commentary turned off it forces me to pay more attention and I notice a lot more of what's going on.

Welcome to the forum by the way.
 
Don't know how long you are watching racing but a lot of what you are looking for will come naturally to you after awhile. Different jocks have different styles of riding and riding a finish, they also have different ways of burying them when they are not trying to win the race.

So if you have only started watching racing lately, continue to watch and make your own observations. There is an old saying

"the best form is what you see with your own eyes.
 
Most of it will come to you with experience of watching races. A good commentator will be able to tell you what's going well or not, something the likes of O'Sullevan rarely did unless it was very obvious. Richard Hoiles is quite good at that element of commentating (but is otherwise pretty poor in my opinion) and, for me, there is none better at it than Simon Holt.

If you can access replays online, I would suggest watching as many replays as you're prepared to let your time allow. A lot of it will sink in subconsciously.
 
I have to say a lot of people will watch racing for years and not understand what's going on in a race, they may well think they do but the majority are completely guessing. I was certainly in this group for a long time and I wouldn't think I'm amongst the elite judges in such matters now. I'd think it would be fair to say that I would have a better understanding I suppose than I once did.

In my opinion where flat racing especially is concerned it pays to have some understanding of speed figures and pace as this gives you a good basis of which to work from with the visual stuff.

I.e if a horse is taking a grip in a slowly run affair or if he's still pulling for his head in a race being run at strong pace. Visually you are looking at the same thing but the difference in the scenarios means the same action could have completely different meanings.

Other things to consider are the difference between a horse not staying a trip or a horses being outpaced off a slow pace both can look similar I.e horse seemingly going backwards at the end of a race but are completely different.



Watch as much as you can and you only learn in time. You don't have to be an expert speed figure but just be aware of the difference the pace makes to the visual elements
 
Once again, some very helpful replies here - good to be around people who know more than me.

Danny - you've opened a can of worms here - I don't have a good understanding of speed figures or pace - any suggestions of where I can find some info aimed at the beginner?

Thanks again, all.

Urbanhermit
 
Welcome urban & thanks for opening up this topic. I'm sure that I for one will learn much more than I know already
 
urbanhermit said:
Once again, some very helpful replies here - good to be around people who know more than me.

Danny - you've opened a can of worms here - I don't have a good understanding of speed figures or pace - any suggestions of where I can find some info aimed at the beginner?

Thanks again, all.

Urbanhermit
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There is a good piece by James Willoughby called the "the late headway monkey" which explains another common mistake if you can find the piece.

For a rough guide there will be plenty of speed figures knocking around online. Tbh you can usually tell from watching a race the sort of pace they are going at once you get used to it if they are in a tight bunch as they are running they are usually not going that fast on on the other hand if they are strung out a long way then there is usually a decent pace on. Not always the case of course. There is some free sectional analysis on Atr (At the Races) plus some pace analysis pre race.

There are lots on books on speed ratings by people like Beyer, Mordin and co anything written by Simon Rowalnds is usually worth a read same goes for Willoughby. I personally think unless your a nutcase not to bother trying to compile your own figures or anything like that but if you can gain and understanding of how its done, variance figures and all that caper it certainly will improve anybody's game.
 
Danny said:
There is a good piece by James Willoughby called the "the late headway monkey" which explains another common mistake if you can find the piece.
Click to expand...

I've never heard of this, Danny.

Can I guess it means that some horses who appear to be making late headway are merely staying on as others slow down?

If so, it's a theory I expounded years and years ago. I came up with it after listening to Kelly Holmes describe how she won gold at the olympics. Toward the end of the race she looked for all the world like she was storming home yet she said immediately afterwards she was merely concentrating on holding her form (ie style of running). Shortly after that the TV analyst (Steve Cram, maybe) pointed out that she had run dead even 100m fractions for the last lap (therefore those in front of her had to be slowing down). It's something that's stuck with me for a long time.

Another angle I used to like checking out was by watching the race on VT on FF. So long as there was no horizontal 'noise' on the screen, you got a really good idea of what what and wasn't quickening. I suppose sectionals now tell you that more accurately but it gave me a head start at the time. Unfortunately digital recordings don't allow us to do the same thing anywhere near as well.
 
I would never go so far as to suggest not compiling your own figures makes you a nutcase but it is essential for me.

As I've said before, my brother, who limits himself to £1 and £2 bets (anything bigger would put him into a panic), is more of a visual 'reader' but he's also good at reading trainers and between the lines of their comments. He'd never dream of compiling his own figures but probably finds as many winners as I do.

You have to do what you're comfortable with. I couldn't punt without basing it on some serious input on my own part.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've never heard of this, Danny.

Can I guess it means that some horses who appear to be making late headway are merely staying on as others slow down?

If so, it's a theory I expounded years and years ago. I came up with it after listening to Kelly Holmes describe how she won gold at the olympics. Toward the end of the race she looked for all the world like she was storming home yet she said immediately afterwards she was merely concentrating on holding her form (ie style of running). Shortly after that the TV analyst (Steve Cram, maybe) pointed out that she had run dead even 100m fractions for the last lap (therefore those in front of her had to be slowing down). It's something that's stuck with me for a long time.

Another angle I used to like checking out was by watching the race on VT on FF. So long as there was no horizontal 'noise' on the screen, you got a really good idea of what what and wasn't quickening. I suppose sectionals now tell you that more accurately but it gave me a head start at the time. Unfortunately digital recordings don't allow us to do the same thing anywhere near as well.
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Yeah that was the basic premise that in general punters tend to take a more positive view of a horse making rapid strides towards the end of a race feeling that the horse could have done better. Of course this isn't always the case unless it was ridden by Jamie Spencer then in all probability the horse would have had more to give. Of course we don't tend to give credit to a front runner who's gone too fast and just about hangs on. They are views I suppose which are becoming more mainstream now. I had 2 years out of the game I came back to it to find someone like Hayley Turner on the T.V discussing where the pace was in a race if that doesn't sum it up nothing will. Knowledge that was fairly low key a few years ago is now banded about by all and sundry. ATR, full credit to them leading the way with sectional and pace analysis but as these things become more widespread the edge you had erodes I suppose 20 odd years ago people talking times,figures and pace were rarer than hens teeth and people who compiled their own figures were leagues ahead of everyone else.

I'm more of a visual/logical guy but as said above without having some understanding of how the race is being run basic visual clues can be useless or worse than that do more harm than good.

I probably used the wrong description above saying unless you're a nutcase. What I probably meant was trying to do your own figures can lead you to the brink of insanity or at least that's how I found it. At least now they are trying to correct the distances of races and things I just remember thinking I'd sussed it and then you started getting obscene ratings due to incorrect distances, rail movements strong headwinds tail winds and that sort of game. I think as I was talking to a beginner as such I don't think its a worthwhile path to go down these days. Certainly if you have lots of time on your hands and just doing it for the general enjoyment and knowledge then great but I personally don't feel its the road to riches that it once would have been for the masters of the dark art (myself not included).

I've known a few guys who were real top speed figure guys and they did well from punting but I think all of them would have ended up being lets say a little eccentric by the end of it. I recall lengths they would go to find winners not just in the speed rating department but in all manner of things. I think one of the oddest things I can remember is trying to Google Earth a racecourse in Chile to try and get some sort of idea what some foreign import had been running around before coming over. We didn't get much other than the course seemed to be located next to a dried up river bed, the only conclusion we could draw was that the Chilean Raider would probably be o.k on good to firm :lol:
 
Danny said:
There is a good piece by James Willoughby called the "the late headway monkey" which explains another common mistake if you can find the piece.

For a rough guide there will be plenty of speed figures knocking around online. Tbh you can usually tell from watching a race the sort of pace they are going at once you get used to it if they are in a tight bunch as they are running they are usually not going that fast on on the other hand if they are strung out a long way then there is usually a decent pace on. Not always the case of course. There is some free sectional analysis on Atr (At the Races) plus some pace analysis pre race.

There are lots on books on speed ratings by people like Beyer, Mordin and co anything written by Simon Rowalnds is usually worth a read same goes for Willoughby. I personally think unless your a nutcase not to bother trying to compile your own figures or anything like that but if you can gain and understanding of how its done, variance figures and all that caper it certainly will improve anybody's game.
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"Betting For A Living" (Nick Mordin) contains a useful chapter on compiling speed figures, if that's the way one wants to go, UH, though the author has seemingly failed to live up to the grandiose title - much the same as James Willoughby never actually crossed ''The Final Frontier" written about in his blog on pace.:)
Could I suggest you invest in a basic subscription to the Racing Post website - though it has its many faults, it's the most comprehensive horseracing database I'm aware of (also has its own speed figures) and read, digest,and try to understand the race analysis (of the principals in most races) from the form section - then watch the replay (free on other sites) to establish your own understanding of how the race was run.
As Danny indicates pace is a vital part of the jigsaw, and you could do worse than acquaint yourself with the excellent sectionals on the ATR website (free of charge).
Welcome to the forum,btw.
 
reet hard said:
...and you could do worse than acquaint yourself with the excellent sectionals on the ATR website (free of charge).
Welcome to the forum,btw.
Click to expand...

Seconded, and Simon Rowlands's sectional analyses are now featured there rather than on the Timeform site.

SR, as an aside, used to post here under the pseudonym J Alfred Prufrock.
 
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For me its about jockey body language. If he's sitting still, horse should be going comfortably, whereas if he's starting to move his hands, give it a slap down the neck, the horse is starting to "come off the bridle" Look at the tension on the reins. It should be tight and hands should be at base of neck. Some horses do respond to a lot of driving especially NH. And likewise with NH watch how it jumps. If it takes the jumps consistently off a nice stride, its going OK. Once it starts to shorten going into a fence, and make a slight mistake, its probably getting tired (or is having a confidence off-day).
If you can go and watch a race with someone who has worked for a long time in racing. There is no getting away from the fact if you've sat on a racehorse, you should know what to look for as you have felt that "on/off bridle" "stride lengthening/shortening"
 
Hello all,

Once again, big thank you for both the welcome and the information that has generously been offered - very much appreciated.

Urbanhermit
 
One of the things you are up against is most flat jockeys are brain dead when it comes to race reading themselves.

You have to take into account their fu** ups and allow for them when reading their mounts form.

Some errors can cost a horse more than 10 lengths and leave you wondering how on earth they just won.

Today was a classic example of jockey's being just plain stupid. They gave Jo Fanning a huge lead on a Mark Johnstone horse which is about as stupid as it gets.

The horse in question won by 6 lengths but that does not tell the real story........Could be worth taking on next time as they should know what to expect and not give him a soft lead.

The one that really gets me is when jockeys, usually on a well fancied horse, are guilty of is sitting in the rear half of the field behind a very slow pace.

It is an absolute certainty the horses up front who are obviously still going to be traveling well having gone no pace will quicken up and those in the 2nd half of the field never get near them or are beaten 1/2 length or something stupid like that.

Why when the pace is so slow they don't move much closer instead of wrestling with their mounts is beyond me but day after day they do it and get stuffed.

The point is if you can take the time to spot the reason they got beat and allow for it then it's worth it's weight in gold.

Very complicated flat racing
 
In hcaps every horse has a rating and some need to get down to a mark they can win off.with so many cameras about its harder for a jockey to take a pull these days so they drop them out so they cant get a run or in a position to win.
Jockeys get the blame but most are riding to orders.
I go on what i see,i dont really study form.if form worked out the favourite would win most times.
Are you sure you want to get into horse racing lol
Watch replays and watch the also rans.
 
I think that is fair comment too.

Re- James Willoughby discussions I was trying to find the late headway monkey piece so i could put the link up which I think would have been on his blog. It appears his blogspot "the figures never lie" is gone. Anyone know why? or if he's still doing blogs somewhere else ?
 
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