Ireland Officially In Recession.

LUKE

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Anyone with a pair of eyes that work could have told you that 6 months ago.My question is how long do people think it will last and how severe will it be.
 
I think it will be pretty bad. The worry I have about this recession is that net savings are pretty low in Ireland; a lot has been borrowed over the past 10 years or so. Joe Bloggs does not have a buffer if he loses his job in the bank / engineering firm. And he is up to his tits in a mortgage.

The property market will go to sh!te, but that is a necessary evil

I would say that we will start to grow again this time next year. I think financial stocks have bottomed (although I thought that 15% ago), but I wouldn't touch anything in construction or leisure with a toilet brush.
 
I follow the local housing market fairly closely and I am amazed by the number of people who refuse to take a euro off the asking price of their property despite having it on the market for 12 months or longer.I could see prices dropping by 30% in the next 2 or 3 years.
The building game is obviously knackered -was talking to a coupleof friends who work in that game and both had tales of woe.I wonder how long it will be before we see a high profile name go to the wall.
I probably sound like a complete mercenary saying this but I am going to say it anyway-in 2 or 3 years time there will be bargains to be had with shares and houses -I fully intend to be in the position to take advantage of these bargains.
 
Judging by the hysteria in the media we are now financially equivalent to Albania in 1976. The 'book' slot on the Matt Cooper show tonight was 'how to buy 2nd hand books in a recession.' Nearly puked.

Anyway - when I came out of college in 19XX, I spent the first period of my working life unloading oranges and bananas from the boats on the Docks on a daily casual basis. I hope I don't have to return to it. That was a recession.
 
I know that Bar. It just seems to me that we will all have to take 2 less breaks a year and we should be OK. Although I do speak as someone who owns stuff, so its easy for me to be unsympathetic.

The junior ACs are not getting back in though, however bad it gets.
 
80's nostalgia seems to be the big thing at the moment.My own recollection is going to sign on of a Tuesday afternoon and taking nearly 20 minutes to be signed on by some ignorant farmers daughter.The bookies and the pubs were all jam packed.The jobs section of the local newspaper usually had two types of job barman and aupair-very few jobs made it to the papers with family connections being everything.All my mates were in the same boat so there was no real shame in it.The odd person would comment that there were plenty of jobs around and those signing on didn't want to work.
After 12 months of drinking lights out I knew it was time to get out and headed for London.I cant ever see it being that bad again and as An Capall said people need to maybe take one holiday a year and cut up their credit cards.
 
The pubs are starting to pick up pace during the day. Always a good sign that things are not going well.
 
Originally posted by Gearoid@Jun 24 2008, 09:36 PM
The pubs are starting to pick up pace during the day. Always a good sign that things are not going well.
As Morrissey said "the devil will make work for idle hands to do ".
 
Originally posted by LUKE+Jun 24 2008, 10:06 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (LUKE @ Jun 24 2008, 10:06 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Gearoid@Jun 24 2008, 09:36 PM
The pubs are starting to pick up pace during the day. Always a good sign that things are not going well.
As Morrissey said "the devil will make work for idle hands to do ". [/b][/quote]
Marty Morrisey said that?
 
I haven't been over to Ireland for a while, so I'm wondering if the number of migrant workers has dropped off and are Irish people now filling those vacancies? The local County Council - Co.Durham -has just advertised for a Polish speaking School's Liaison Officer, so they are clearly prepared for Polish workers staying put.

I should add that I've found all the Poles that I've had dealings with to be charming, helpful people and a credit to their nation.
 
Originally posted by LUKE@Jun 24 2008, 08:23 PM
I probably sound like a complete mercenary saying this but I am going to say it anyway-in 2 or 3 years time there will be bargains to be had with shares and houses -I fully intend to be in the position to take advantage of these bargains.
Nothing wrong with that in my eyes. If I thought I had the finance available to me I'd be doing it myself.
 
The Irish recession will have a big effect upon their bloodstock industry, especially the NH side.

The arse fell out of it last year regardless of what way the Sales companies want to dress it up.I wonder will they have a look at leaving the Stallion men alone. It may certainly sort out the over production they keep harping on about and should bring buyers back who had started to shop elsewhere as we had become too expensive.
 
The iseq went below 4000 this morning before making a recovery later on.Would anyone bet we will see 3000 by the end of the year.
 
Just watching the Tory Alan Duncan being interviewed by Andrew Neil on the BBC News Channel. In criticising the rate of corporation tax in the UK, he compared it to the much lower rate in Ireland.

Curiously, none other than John McCain has been making the exact same point this week:

http://bravenewfilms.org/blog/54899-john-mccain-town-hall-meeting-09-22-08

Is it just me or is this a really bad time to be using Ireland as a positive economic example?
 
I think we still have a long way to go.There is a website I look at regularly irishpropertywatch.com which lists property by price drops.Over the last few weeks people outside Dublin have stopped fannying around and taking 5k off the asking price and started slashing the asking price.
 
You'll know when the Irish economy has really hit the rocks, all your best horses will be sold to elsewhere.
 
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