Irish General Election - Any Value Here?

BrianH

BrianH

At the Start
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May 3, 2003
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Now all you highly knowledgeable Irish political students (and Gearoid), could you please advise me on whether there's any value in the spread markets for seats (buying or selling):

Fianna Fáil.....68 - 69.5
Fine Gael.....47 - 48.5
Labour.....18 - 19
Sinn Féin.....10 - 11
Green Party.....9.5 - 10.5
Independents.....6 - 7
Progressive Democrats.....2.75 - 3.25
or
Seat supremacy for Fianna Fáil.....17 - 19
 
If the latest poll is to be believed Fianna Fail are looking at the same vote as they got last time when they ended up with 81 seats. Frankly, I find the poll result astonishing and it will be a surprise to me if they end up with much over 70. At 69.5 there can't be too much downside, and if the Poll proves accurate and translates into seats you're away.
 
Actual Result as Follows:

Fianna Fáil.....73
Fine Gael.....50
Labour.....15
Sinn Féin.....8
Green Party.....9
Independents.....6
Progressive Democrats.....4
Ceann Comhairle.....1

If I can be of any further help, let me know.
 
Am I right in thinking that [Seat supremacy for Fianna Fáil.....17 - 19] is the number of seats that they will gain more than their nearest challenger (almost certainly Fine Gael)?

If so then why is the difference in the quoted number of seats between the two 21 (buy, sell and midpoint)?

Am I oversimplifying things (or missing the point completely) in thinking that there is a couple of points of value in buying the supremacy quote at 19?
 
Ladbrokes should sack their Irish trading room. the following bets were layed to a customer of mine this morning and I knew well the prices were all wrong. All bets were sent to trading.

€400 win Next Taoiseach - Bertie Ahern 5/4 - Price now 1/2)
€200 win Finna Fail 68+ seats 2/1 (asked for €500) (price now 71+ 5/4)
€50 win Next Tanaiste - Trevor Sargant 10/1 (asked for €100) (price now 7/2)


I would buy the Greens at 9.5

Believe it or not I do read polotics.ie and one bet I've had (before yesterdays poll came out) was for Caoimhghin O’Caolain to gain the most first preference votes of all the canditates. He is expected to get in the region of 13,000. He is 10/1 with Ladbrokes. Here are the totals form the last election -

Martin Micheal 14 764
Willie ODea 13 174
Cowen Brian 12 529
Aylward Liam 12 489
Dempsey Noel 11 534
Ahern Bertie 10 896
O’Caolain Caoimhghi 10 832
Cregan John 10 823
O’ Keeffe Ned 10 574
Moynihan Michael 10 540
Lowry Michael* 10 400
Cuiv Eamon 9 947
Ahern Dermot 9 603
Noonan Michael 9 451
O' Donoghue John 9 445
Brennan Seamus 9 326
Roche Dick 9 222
McCreevy Charlie 9 082
Penrose Willie 8 967
Lenihan Brian 8 086
Crowe Sean 7 466
Ahern Noel 6 912
 
The Greens at 9.5 is a buy.

At this stage with Finna Fail looking to get around 70 seats and the greens to get at least 10 the 8/1 with Ladbrokes about a Finna Fail/Greens coalition is the bet to form the next goverment. They may get all 83 seats between them but if they dont is a coalition with FF/Gre/PD a possibility? I don't see the PD's getting more then 3 seats which hardly puts them in any position to bargain in goverment.
 
is a coalition with FF/Gre/PD a possibility
Click to expand...

The events in Ranelagh last week when the Mad Mullah tackled John Gormley whilst the radiant Liz O Donnell was up the pole would suggest otherwise.
 
As an outside observer can someone explain the purpose of the Progressive Democrats ?
 
Bertie probably would want the PD's even if they have no numerical significance, as long as Mary Harney gets reelected. She is probably a better health minister than anyone FF can produce, and in the likely event that everyone is still pissed off with the Health service in 5 years time the PD's will take more than their share of the flak. I have heard she might be in for a long night, though I haven't been following it too closely.

I don't really understand the perceived need for parties to be compatable to go into coalition. Coalition government is all about negotiation and compromise.
 
Originally posted by Ardross@May 22 2007, 09:08 AM
As an outside observer can someone explain the purpose of the Progressive Democrats ?
Click to expand...
They would be very much a free enterprise party - much more in line with your Tory party. The difference between FG and FF is not so obvious, more historical that anything.
 
The price of Fianna Fáil seats moved to 69 - 70.5 and I had a smallish buy. I see that it has since moved up a further point (70 - 71.5).

betsmate, you are right about the supremacy definition, it is for Fianna Fáil over Fine Gael and it hasoved up to 18 - 20.
 
Originally posted by Gearoid@May 21 2007, 09:19 PM

Believe it or not I do read polotics.ie and one bet I've had (before yesterdays poll came out) was for Caoimhghin O’Caolain to gain the most first preference votes of all the canditates. He is expected to get in the region of 13,000. He is 10/1 with Ladbrokes.

Click to expand...
I am willing to sell you my vote in order to help you with your bet!! He is my local TD and neighbour, so i will sell my vote to you for 1/13,000th of your profits.
 
O’Caolain probably isn't a bad call at that price, especially since Martin got too many votes last time and nearly cost his running mate a seat. Willie O'Dea's national exposure has probably grown in the last few years which should make him favourite this time out (?).
 
Willie o Dea is very well got in his area and would be my idea of topping the poll. The thing about Caoimhin is he might get more votes this time because last time round he would have lost a lot of votes to the Independent Candidate running for the Hospital Campaign, who would have taken a lot of votes of him, but wont this time around, as while he is running, he doesnt seem to be getting any backing from the hospital committee. For me this time around he could be looking at 13000-14000, but i also think that Willie O Dea will improve by maybe 1000-2000 more...Any betting on this Gearoid? What firm is taking bets?
 
I stand by my above posts that the Greens will gain at leat 10 seats and O’Caolain at 10/1 is the bet.
 
From Jon Henley in today's Guardian Diary:

"With all eyes understandably on tomorrow's almost unbearably exciting Irish elections, this column has decided, after much soul-searching, to abandon its usual high standards of objectivity and endorse the independent candidate for Laois/Offaly, John Bracken. We take this momentous step not because of the candidate's qualities, exceptional though they most certainly are, but because of the song on his website. "Election time is coming, sure it's not so far away," this goes. "The politicians in the Dail will fight another day/And when they call from door to door they'll promise all they can/But when the day for voting comes, John Bracken is your man." The printed word, alas, does but scant justice to the infectious charm of this minor meisterstück, to which we urge you all to listen at the earliest opportunity on www.john bracken.ie. The man's our Singing Politician of the Month, and no mistake."
 
I have decided to vote Green. I voted for them a few elections ago in the form of Roger Garland, who made me regret my vote within a few hours by coming onto the election count programme and making a complete pillock of himself. I am willing to overlook this because of the following...

1. I have been impressed by Trevor Sargent (whose name I tend to spell randomly, an nothing looks right) and especially Eamon Ryan.

2. I believe Bertie is a crook - can't vote FF.

3. Kenny is a Garrett Fitzgerald type person, who I might have voted for if he acted like Garrett Fitzgerald but the PR people have got hold of him and turned him into an atrocity

4. Rabbitte is far too stuck up his own arse. Spends too much time smiling merrily to himself at his own jokes.

5. I like Mary Harney and McDowell, the rest of the PD's I can do without. A vote for them is a vote for the crook. (I know the Greens could end up with him as well, but I would see them as opposition from within)

6. My local Green candidate was in my class at school when I was about 5 or 6. I can't actually remember him, but the dates stack up to the fact that he was there.

On such flippant decisions are elections won and lost.
 
Although for some reason it takes days to count the votes, exit polls seem to show that at least I will not lose on my spread bet, but I don't think I'll be a big winner either.
 
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