Irish Grand National

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Any fancys for this? Have not looked at it that closely but one that jumps off the page is the novice King Johns Castle. Being racing over 2 miles all season but looks for all the world a stayer in the making. Entered in loads of other novice races in the next few weeks so hard to know what the plans are but interesting to see where he lines up.
 
I like a new story for this, perhaps the ground has gone a bit against him though.....anywya took some 20s lastnite, PPower are paying out 1st 5.
 
He fancies the Mullins yoke. Wait for my e-mail. I hear Fenton has one who is so quick he dodges bullets at home...
 
Never been a fan of King John's Castle.. very sloppy jumper, even when tried over longer trips and throws in some shockers.. best caught fresh though..
 
Whyso Mayo is in off a very handy weight if they put a professional jockey on him - one that can present him better at his fences (rules BJG out). He's probably not going to get the trip very strongly and you know what I think of his jumping but with 10-4 he'd be a small bit of value at 16s.
 
King Johns Castle next to no chance of staying trip for the Irish National. Very live contender for Powers Gold Cup if he takes that option.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 5 2007, 07:23 PM
Homer Wells must be a far too short a price on the likely going now?
Click to expand...
Will probably be pulled out if the going is too fast -as he was last year.
Dix Villez has always promised to do something worthwhile.
 
Well with Henderson keeping Juveniguer in, Taafe's been forced to keep Cane Brake in order to keep the weight down for Kings Advocate :laughing:

Alright some might call it cheating, personally in this instance I'd call it shrewd, but it doesn't guarantee Kings Advocates victory, even if it forces half the field out of the handicap. All it does is ensure that his 'plot' horse (if indeed that's what it is?) is well treated, but there's a couple of others there or thereabouts who look to have benefited by proxy, and both look to have better claims on known form, and profile.

It only becomes cheating a bit I suppose if Kings Advocate suddenly demonstrates a liking for the trip having run no further than 21F over fences previously, and never won at 24F on his two attempts at the distance over hurdles. Then you'd be tempted to ask whether his mark had been kept down by running him over an inadequate distance, as he would potentially have quite a bit in hand by way of improvement, above his alloted weight, if this was the case.

Personally, I can't help feeling that Gazza's Girl's 15.5L defeat behind Denman over 25F, doesn't read better than Kings Advocates 11L defeat behind L'Antartique over 21F. Both carried a similar weight, and with the extra half mile, Jessie Harrington's horse has probably carried more in reality. Certainly enough to turn around the 1Ib difference.

Despite reservations about the ground doing for New Story, expressed earlier on thread, I'm not sure there's that much evidence to say he won't act on it? Sure he's got winning form in heavy, and probably a preference thus, but he's got solid place form on Good, in competitive races.

2nd of 16,
3rd of 26
and 3rd of 14.

He was third in last years renewal, beaten 9L's by Point Barrow when in receipt of 2Ibs. He was subsequently beaten 0.75L's when failing to withstand the same horses late charge at Leopardstown in January when in receipt of 9Ibs this time.

The 7Ib pull in the weights at 24F with Point Barrow is pretty well spot on, (well about half a length away) from where he should have been for their respective distances in the previous renewal of the Irish National.

2Ibs = 9L's
9Ibs = 0.75L's

means 7Ibs = 8.75L's @ 24F

which should have resulted in Point Barrow winning by 0.25L's once the 8.75 is deducted from the 9 from Fairyhouse. In my book the 0.75L's that it ultimately turned out to be is near enough to suggest that both horses have developed in line with each others improvement schedules.

If you believe that Point Barrow is a good thing for Aintree? then despite being 4Ibs higher than he was when third last year New Story seems to be worth the weight on the evidence of his Leopardstown run with that well touted and fancied Liverpool candidate. That Michael Hourigan subsequently sent him handicap hurdling in his next two assignments might suggest that the trainer agrees?

There's further evidence from the Paddy Power Handicap Chase run at Leopardstown over Christmas through the winner, and Irish National top weight Cane Brake. He beat New Story 17L's giving him 8Ibs. At Fairyhouse he's due to carry 12.0 to New Story's 10.0 suggetsing the mark has been protected well. Hourigans ensured that he now enjoys a 20Ib pull with his 17L conqueror of that day, which should give him something like a 12L advantage at race distance over the Gold Cup 5th.

The Paddy Power Cup also has a habit of throwing up horses who don't win, but subsequently go onto success in April;

Davids Lad 9th, Bobbyjo 8th, The Bunny Boiler 2nd, and Point Barrow 10th...... A New Story 5th????
 
I don't think Cane Brake is in just for the craic - I actually think he could give a bold showing
 
As I understand it, Taafe had already been preparing the ground for taking Cane Brake out, and might yet do so. Although I'm far from clever on these things, but my crude understanding of the rules allows for the weights to be raised on the day in the event of a top weight non-runner, but only if the top weight is more than 7lb clear of the next horse?. Thus, Cane Brake being there gets Kings Advocate & Ruby 10st, which forces half the field out of the handicap and there is nothing that can change that. Juvenigeur is 6Ibs lower than Cane Brake, had he come out, then Cane Brake would have had to run to prevent the weights rising a full stone. If he lines up though, then Cane Brake can come out on the day, without the weights rising? the booking of a 7Ib claimer suggests to me that they're wary of the burden at the very least.

As I suggested, Kings Advocate won't be the only beneficiary of this though.

Cane Brake might very well be good enough to carry what will now be 11.7 in effect, and of those higher up the list, he'd probably be the one I'd be most wary of (though you'd be foolish to ignore the remarkable consistancy of Juvigneurs 'runs to place' ratio on completed starts since arriving from France. The 20Ibs pull for New Story with Cane Brake is now 13Ibs with the claimer on board, even so 0.7Ibs = 1L @29F and this still gives the Hourigan horse the nod in turning around 17L's on the Paddy Power result, but the projected distance is now down to 1.5L's, and not the 11.5 - 12L's it should have been. Although the margins are fine now, you have to come down on one side I suppose, and since flicking a coin is the alternative, I'll go this route. In actually fact the one that might be interesting is Gazzas Girl who also benefits from a claimer it now appears. Mind you, her completeting has to be taken on trust.

You need to go back to 1995 to find the last winner to carry more lead though.

In 2006 the first 6 home all carried under 11st. Those that carried more finished
7th, PU, PU, PU, PU.

In 2005 it was even more brutal with the first 9 home carrying 10.6 or less. THose that carried 11st+ finished
13th, last and PU

In 2004 they fared slightly better, although the first 3 home all carried less than 11st, and those that carried the weight or more finished
4th, 5th, 8th, PU

2003 was a similar picture, again the first 3 carried less than 11st, with the four horses who carried 11st plus finishing
4th, 7th, 11th, 14th

2002 and 2001 were to some extent even more lop-sided than this years renewal, with Commanche Court being the only horse carrying 12st on both occasions, and forcing everything else under the 11st barrier or out of the handicap. Suffice to say in 2002 he PU, in 2001 came 5th, and in 2000 he won it off 11.4, and became the last horse to do so of a mark above 11st.

Therefore the 11st+ barrier has

1 win
2 places (both 4th)
10 unplaced
7 failures to complete, all pulling up

or to load it another way

0 wins,
2 places,
17 unplaced,
from 19 runs since 2001

I kind of expect the winner to come from this Kings Advocate, A New Story, and Gazzas Girl group.

Would a woman winning a National not be, 'A new Story'? norty
 
I'm a Gazza's Girl fan but I also have a regard for Ferdy Murphy's Nine De Sivola. You might be interested to know that Bet365 offer fifth place to each-way punters.
 
PP are doing 5 places too.
I'm on A New Story and Gazza's Girl both in double figs, e/w

But feel guilty deserting my beloved Juvy, have backed him in every race so far - might have another for the race! - only if I don't back him he's sure to win at last :D so maybe I won't
 
Interesting piece on Phillip Carberry and his chance on Point Barrow in the Sunday Independent today:


Another Carberry to prove point

WHEN they returned to the winners' enclosure, Philip Carberry dismounted and the investigations began. Sublimity, a 16-1 shot, had won the Champion Hurdle, not Brave Inca or Hardy Eustace, not the English talking horse Detroit City. Reporters turned to their notes for help. The jockey was 26-years-old, from Co Meath and a member of a famous racing dynasty. Now they had their handle: a brother of Paul and Nina. He was the other Carberry.

So with a vague sense of recognition, the following day's headlines could be composed. The unheralded rider finally stepping out of the shadow of his better-known siblings was the gist. Of course, Nina would complicate it further by winning the Sporting Index Handicap Chase on HeadsontheGround, her second Cheltenham victory, less than an hour later. The greatest day of Philip Carberry's racing life and still he was only half the story.

Over three weeks later, he sits in the lobby of a Curragh hotel and smiles at the memory. No, he says, the headlines didn't bother him. How could they? At 4.0 on the morning after the Champion Hurdle - long before the paper boys had oiled the chains on their bicycles - Carberry was driving to Birmingham where he boarded a flight for Paris. That afternoon, far removed from the fuss of the Festival, he rode three horses for Francois Cottin at Enghien.

In the cross-country race, Il De Boitron gave him an exhilarating ride in eighth place and seeing Nina win made the day so much sweeter. Years ago, when they were growing up, he remembers his father Tommy dispensing some advice. "You're all individuals," Tommy would tell them. "You need to fight your own battles." That, says his son, is what they've always done. "We don't stand on each others toes."

Of Tommy's six kids only one, Mark, escaped the racing bug. Philip can't recall a day when he didn't feel intoxicated from the buzz of riding horses. He tells of the day Bobbyjo won the National in 1999; Paul swinging from the rafters in the winners' enclosure, his father grinning from ear to ear. In the midst of all the madness he led the horse up and quietly took in the ecstasy of it all.

"It was brilliant, unbelievable," he says. "To think that the previous Irish-trained winner was L'Escargot, trained by my grandfather and ridden by my father. Then Dad trains the next winner with his son riding it. That's pretty legendary, isn't it?"

Saturday gives him the opportunity to carve his own legend

Great days but, like Tommy said, he has his own battles to fight and Saturday gives him the opportunity to carve his own legend when he rides Point Barrow, the horse he rode to win last year's Irish Grand National, in the Aintree equivalent. "Irish National winners have been lucky at Aintree," Carberry says, oozing the quiet confidence that is a family trademark. "Looking along those lines you'd have to give Point Barrow a great chance."

He has ridden over Aintree's imposing fences before, but not in the most famous steeplechase of them all. Since Cheltenham it is the race that has dominated his thoughts. Not nerves, he says, just feverish anticipation. The last 12 months have brought him an Irish National, the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris and two Cheltenham Festival victories. Now he hopes to add the National and sees no impediment to his dream beyond bad luck.

In Carberry, you notice things that are typical of his family and things that are not. He shares Paul's boyish charm, if not his brother's outrageous natural ability on horseback. And whereas Nina tends to talk cautiously about turning professional, there is a steely focus about Philip that catches the eye. He thinks deeply about the game and his place in it and the places he wants to go.

He knows there is a golden circle of jockeys, including Paul, at the top of the tree that will likely remain outside his reach. Each year he averages somewhere around 25 winners, a respectable total but not a headline-grabbing one. So he sets his sights on the big races and dreams about them during idle moments. "It's the big ones that count," he says. "A big winner is worth 10 or 20 ordinary ones. If I got a name as a big-race jockey, it wouldn't be a bad reputation to have."

To this point his career has progressed relatively seamlessly. Modestly, he ascribes a portion of it to luck. He was 17 when he rode his first winner, his father's Native Status, at Bellewstown in 1998. It was the first time he'd ridden over hurdles. By the end of the season he'd ridden four more winners, including the Champion Bumper at Punchestown. The professional ranks beckoned.

A year later he won the claimers' title with 32 winners. It was both a blessing and a curse. A blessing because it showcased his ability, a curse because it meant he was a boy among men before he'd hit 20. "I lost my claim quickly and that made it hard," he says. "Suddenly you're level with the likes of Charlie Swan and Conor O'Dwyer and it's dog eat dog."

For a while he thought there might be a better pathway on the flat and he spent a season and a half with James Burns. For a man who flies helicopters for a hobby, however, racing without the thrill of jumping felt incomplete, like drinking non-alcoholic beer. With his father and Arthur Moore behind him, winners came in a steady stream. He has arrangements with Pat Hughes and John Carr and rides every second week or so in France. There is little time to stand still.

It was Christmas in 2005 when Carr brought him to Fairyhouse to school Sublimity over hurdles. That was the turning point. He'd never sat on a horse with so much pure speed. If he could learn to jump and settle in longer races, Carberry knew they had a young horse with the potential to go all the way to the top, a Champion Hurdler in the making.

Three months later Sublimity arrived in Cheltenham for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. A week before the race Carberry had arrived at Carr's house with a stack of videos of previous renewals of the race. Together they sifted through them and devised a plan.

"We based it on Montelado's run in 1993," Carberry says. "Like Montelado, our horse was having only his third run over hurdles. With that kind of inexperience you're better off trying to play it safe than staying in the hustle and bustle of the race. At the start he wasn't concentrating in amongst horses but once he was on the outside he was able to relax and jump well."

The payback came when a loose horse pushed him wider than he wished on the approach to the straight and they ended up a fast-finishing fourth, less than four lengths behind the winner. Before the race Carberry remembers talking to Bill Hennessy, Sublimity's owner, and advising him to check out prices for the following year's Champion Hurdle. Even in defeat the jockey's confidence soared.

"I'm usually modest myself, but if anybody else had been riding him they'd have been shouting from the rooftops. He's that good. We said we were going in with a level-headed chance. We just knew he was very very good. People said we'd never out-battle Brave Inca, but we thought we'd go by him without having to battle. He had that speed and that class. We'd every right to go there with confidence."

Before the race Carberry had sat down with Carr and explained how he was going to ride the race. Blissfully, every part of it went to plan. Carr hadn't doubted it. Twice Carberry had ridden big handicap winners for him at the Punchestown Festival, landing gambles in the process and riding both times from the rear with imperious confidence. His faith in the jockey was unshakeable.

Point Barrow has had the kind of eye-catching build-up patented by Carberry's father

As is Carberry's faith in the horse. This year he noticed Sublimity had matured and become stronger and next year he thinks he will be even better. "I think he could mould into a pure champion," he says, "and hold his title for a while. Our aim is to emulate Istabraq. When you get a horse like this, you have to aim high."

And now there are others. Tomorrow he rides Well Tutored for Arthur Moore in the Irish Grand National and sees him as a live outsider. In May there'll be Princesse D'Anjou seeking to repeat last year's victory in France's greatest steeplechase. Before that, though, there is Aintree and Point Barrow and a headful of dreams.

Like Bobbyjo in 1999, Point Barrow is a nine-year-old, the perfect age for the race he thinks. Last month he ran a nice race when finishing third in a handicap hurdle at Navan and has had the kind of quiet, eye-catching build-up patented by Carberry's father. So he is as confident as a Grand National novice dares to be.

"I'm not nervous about it. My horse is a safe jumper. There's no point being worried anyway. If something happens that's out of your control, there's nothing you can do about it. You have to realise you can't control the whole race. You can just control yourself and the horse. You have to react to your surroundings. Go in with an open mind and take the opportunities that come."

He knows dangers will assault him on all sides. Slippers Madden on Numbersixvalverde, Ruby Walsh on Hedgehunter, both former winners. And most intriguingly of all, his brother Paul on the ante-post favourite Dun Doire. He knows this will be the story: the two market principals ridden by Carberrys, brother against brother, Cain against Abel.

"It's a nice story," he says. "That's about it. I'm well used to going up against Paul and he's well used to riding against me. It makes no difference to me. Dun Doire has always been associated with good jockeys and he'll be treated like every other horse in the race, at least by me anyway."

Some time during the week he'll start doing the work. He'll sit down with Pat Hughes and discuss tactics and watch videos of past races with his father. For now it just turns repeatedly, relentlessly around in his head. "I'm just enjoying it," he says. "Thinking about different things. What would happen if that happened, that sort of thing, see what the other horses might be doing and where that leaves you. Just going over all these different angles."

The more he thinks about it, the better it seems. The sound of a plan falling into place: Philip Carberry will tell you it is the sweetest thing.

John O'Brien
 
Great to see some of the UK trainers going over and having a crack at this great race. I hope Distant Thunder will go close, I know how disappointed Noel Chance was when he got done on the line at Cheltenham. So Distant Thunder for me and Dix Villez for a place.
 
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