Irish Jockeys Championship

C

Cantoris

At the Start
Joined
Jan 7, 2008
Messages
2,623
Pat Smullen 56
Fran Berry 55
Johnny Murtagh 52

I had a good few bob on Fran Berry at the start of the season when he bolted out of the traps. The 2/1 looks ok now as he is trading around the evens mark. But he was 1/2 at one stage as Smullen was slow out of the traps. Now it is close to evens each of two. Should I be laying off on Smullen?
 
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Cantoris said:
Pat Smullen 56
Fran Berry 55
Johnny Murtagh 52

I had a good few bob on Fran Berry at the start of the season when he bolted out of the traps. The 2/1 looks ok now as he is trading around the evens mark. But he was 1/2 at one stage as Smullen was slow out of the traps. Now it is close to evens each of two. Should I be laying off on Smullen?
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Why not Lay Fran Berry for original stake and go green as they say - If F.B. wins you win if he loses you end up level. Try playing with this trading calculator that might help.

http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator/index.php
 
I have learned the hard way that when Smullen is in close contention for the title he will put in an extra effort in the autumn and he seems to respond well to pressure of that kind.

And you can't forget Mr Murtagh, who last year rode more than 20 winners in October and November, compared with only 6 or 7 in previous years, when he was in with a shout and went on to win it. He rides winners for a bigger spread of trainers than Smullen, which could be another factor in a tight race. Why is he as long as 9/2 at the moment?
 
Grey said:
I have learned the hard way that when Smullen is in close contention for the title he will put in an extra effort in the autumn and he seems to respond well to pressure of that kind.

And you can't forget Mr Murtagh, who last year rode more than 20 winners in October and November, compared with only 6 or 7 in previous years, when he was in with a shout and went on to win it. He rides winners for a bigger spread of trainers than Smullen, which could be another factor in a tight race. Why is he as long as 9/2 at the moment?
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More overseas committments that the other pair of lads i take it Grey, I presume hel be in Oz and America, plus days in the UK that the other lads wont be at.
 
Cantoris, I'd keep the bet. I don't see the point in laying off a 2/1 bet at evens when it is doing better than the bet originally indicated. Unless you need the cash back, I'd let it run, unless you believe now Berry won't win.

You clearly had a relatively strong opinion on Berry and he's looking good (and this is after Galways and Smullen's usual batch of winners).

On a more general note, I'm less and less a fan of laying off. I had huge confidence in England winning the Ashes last summer, and bet bigger than I ever have before or since. However, I kept laying it off when they were in very strong winning positions, and took 25-30% off what I should have won. If it was a sporting event I bet on on a whim and didn't really understand the market, I would perhaps lay off, but I should have backed my opinion more and this cost me. I'll be backing England and laying the Aussies this time, and there will be little or no laying off.
 
LUKE said:
There is no Betfair market on it this year.I would make Murtagh a value bet at 5s.
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That blows my idea of Laying F.B. out the water - very unusual for them not to have a market - sure one will develop with it being this close, sooner or later.
 
Hamm said:
Cantoris, I'd keep the bet. I don't see the point in laying off a 2/1 bet at evens when it is doing better than the bet originally indicated. Unless you need the cash back, I'd let it run, unless you believe now Berry won't win.

You clearly had a relatively strong opinion on Berry and he's looking good (and this is after Galways and Smullen's usual batch of winners).
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I'm a percentages person and thought at 2/1 he was incredible value as he was going to gain a heap of winners from Oxx, which would spur him on. As it turns out, Oxx is having a shocker and Berry is just not riding well enough to pick up those winners he shouldn't get (i.e. the ones beaten half a length that end up winning because you're in the form of your life). I think evens about him now is skinny so ideally would have laid off on betfair if there was a market. There was a point where I could have had all three backed for a profit. I'll prob have to ride it out now but wouldn't be as confident now as I was in March.....hence I would probably have put less on, and in that case a lay on Betfair would be welcome now if anyone can get a market open on it ;)
 
Murtagh has done pretty well to stay so close to the top two considering the rides Joseph O'Brien is getting these days.
 
Where is Murtagh likely to pitch up over the next few weekends? Leopardstown for the Irish Champion (and the rest) or Haydock for the Sprint Cup? The Curragh for the Irish Leger/National Stakes or Doncaster for the Leger?
 
LUKE said:
Murtagh gives the impression of not being worried about the jockeys title.
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That's probably right, but I'd imagine that if he's still in contention by the time the season moves into its final weeks he'll give it a real go. That's what happened last year, at any rate, when he rode more than 20 winners in October and November.

And I suppose Joseph will be safely at home doing his homework by then, I doubt he'll be allowed stay up after dark to ride at Dundalk.
 
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