You haven't answered how this is supposed to sit with eu membership and nato.
Oh, I'm happy to answer this, it's just that its such a dead end I wouldn't hold my breath on it. If I do though, are you prepared to turn your thoughts to Kurdistan and reveal your read on that situation?
Turkey applied for memebership in 1987 (nearly 30 years ago). Since then they've closed one chapter and I believe another 15 are still open. It's not imminent is it? Indeed, today we learn that Turkish fighter jets have been provocatively entering Greek airpsace. 22 breaches in 24 hours. This is more than the 17 secs that a SU24 entered Turkish airspace and got shot down
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/turkish-warplanes-violate-greek-airspace-22-times-within-24-hours-1544036
Turkey currently hosts about 4 million Syrian refugees. Do you really think the EU is about to accept Turkey into their arms with this flood of migrant population ready to charge across the continent? I think I'm right in saying that the French have some sort of clause that requires them to put Turkish membership to a referendum?. 25% of the population already vote for the National Front, but leaving that aside, if there's one country in Europe that isn't going to accept them, its the French after what they've endured in the last 15 months. Germany has been a long time opponent too. I think Austria requires a referendum as well. Greece and Cyprus hardly need explaining.
Erdogan started looking in other directions years ago after he was last rebuffed (Russia being one such country as irony has it!). The way he handled the pro democracy demosntrations in 2013 is hardly evidence of someone trying ingratiate himself to the EU is it?. Indeed, they stayed his application on the back of this which spawned Turkish public opinion to turn against the EU.
You're fond of using opinion polls as evidence (I don't think they are incidentally) but you might enjoy this one taken shortly after the Taksim Square demonstrations
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/new-euro...-a-drop-in-turkish-support-for-the-eu-4713737
As regards NATO, they're coming to a bit of a cross roads. The isolationists, libertarians, and extreme right of the US Republican party are clearly starting to question its legitimacy. So far as they're concerned an increasingly ungrateful rest of the world is hiding underneath an American umbrella and not contributing. They might very well start to retreat across the Atlantic and say "stuff you", or as I expect, "start to pay up if you want our protection". Obama might have given a recent commitment to NATO, but that could be reversed in a matter of a few years. NATO is for all intents and purposes a one man show with a series of cheerleaders
You should also be aware that Turkey is increasingly regarded as something of a rogue member. It's clearly sending to ISIS, and we now have this totally unsustainable situation where the USAF and RSAF share the same Turkish airbase, bombing in support and against the Kurds respectively. Even Josephy Heller would have been hard pressed to make this up
What if they enter Syria to stop the formation of a Kurdish state on their border. Is it so implausible that Turkey and Russia end up shooting at each other and we suddenly have article 5 invoked on us? At the moment I'd say it's not very likely, but neither is it impossible
So far at least Turkey isn't taking part in this big Saudi war game directly, but is allowing the RSAF to fly offensive missions into Syria from their bases (it took the Americans about 3 years to get permission, and only when Kobane was in the world spotlight did the finally agree). Saudi got theirs straight away. Does that not tell you something about the close level of co-operation between the two?
I realise twisting words is a habit of yours Clive, but I think it's important to underline again that this will be a some sort of Sunni super state with Saudi Arabia playing a very significant role in the direction it takes. It is not an extension of a greater Saudi Arabia. For all intents Saudi Arabia is likely to provide the all important spiritual lead, not least because Mecca and Medinah are on their soil. They also have shed loads of money that they've been happy to spend promoting Wahhabism, and have been buying up so much high quality military kit now, that they'd wipe the floor with any European airforce. I wouldn't under estimate the firepower that some of the emirate states have either. They fly F16's
It will be presented as a bloc of economic co-operation and regional police force in order to gain acceptance onto the international stage, but it will be exclusively or Sunni, and padded out by countries with strong allegiances to Saudi Arabia. I see no reason why such a bloc shouldn't emerge to be honest. There are plenty of comparable such blocs of common interest all over the globe, the only thing that makes this one unique is the role played by religion in formulating it
Now perhaps you can return to Kurdistan and let us look at how you might handle this very hot potato? In a few years time this could be a very serious issue, and could be a very important litmus test for Turkey and their future direction
update ... and in another nudge today towards a developing issue, Erdogan is telling the United States to decide who its supports, the Turks or the Kurds. Doesn't sound like someone desperate to ingratiate himself as he shells the US's principal ally on the ground, nor does it sound like he's going to lose too much sleep either. Why would he? He's demonstrated already that if he were forced to choose beyween the YPG and ISIS, he'd choose ISIS.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...n-idUSKCN0VQ1DP?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews