Jacques Le Marois

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
18,958
Location
Leyland
13/8 Intello
15/8 Dawn Approach
3/1 Moonlight Cloud
8/1 Elusive Kate
16/1 Aljamaaheer
16/1 Olympic Glory


Intello would tempt me at slightly bigger as I think this may be too soon for DA. Moonlight Cloud is appallingly short. Straight mile/good pace is against her. I think EK should be shorter than her in the betting.
 
that'll be the same Moonlight Cloud which won the Moulin and finished an unlucky 4th in this race between 1.75l by Excelebration?

Doesn't seem like a rock solid odds on bet to me. (place laying)
 
MC has so much ability and speed and is in the form of her life, but a strongly run mile might expose her a bit. hmmm.

if DA isn't feeling the affects of that sussex stakes he's the one to beat. big ? though.

unsure of the intello hype machine coming from france, deserves to be considered but not at 13/8 for me.

elusive kate too big at 8/1.

cracking race.
 
Why has this race been moved earlier nowadays - always used to be the Sunday before the Ebor meeting . That would make much more sense than having it so close to the Sussex and the Maurice du Gheest .

Elusive Kate may surprise a few at 8-1 on her favourite track.
 
Is it not that York has moved a week later ?
York used be week of August 15 in 70s and 80s and maybe more recently even.
Agree with you on Elusive Kate; it could be the race of the year if they all show.
 
There were always 2 weekends between Goodwood and York though ? The dreariest time of the summer Flat season.
 
edgt said:
Is it not that York has moved a week later ?
York used be week of August 15 in 70s and 80s and maybe more recently even.
QUOTE]

yes a few sporting events this season like the international test match at the oval have changed (its a week earlier this year) thinks its to do with the bank holiday Monday being earlier this summer
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13 entered. all main players stand ground including declaration of war even though bookies haven't priced him for some reason. apparently coolmore list him as "probable" for the race.
 
simmo said:
that'll be the same Moonlight Cloud which won the Moulin and finished an unlucky 4th in this race between 1.75l by Excelebration?

Doesn't seem like a rock solid odds on bet to me. (place laying)
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thats using last years race as an example though...i think that was a race where early pace was lacking, i don't see that being the case here..which imo will stretch her speed..hence the place lay
 
Moonlight Cloud is a 6-7f mare; she's run big figures in the Maurice de gheest twice over 6 1/2f. If there's plenty of pace on I think she'll get found out for stamina but I wouldn't want to take odds on about her not placing.

Fascinating race, the two principles likely to be handy, could see it being a war....
 
I am surprised to see Olympic Glory being thrown in the deep end after his poor run in the Poulains .

I am coming more and more to the conclusion that Elusive Kate is the definite value and will go very close on Sunday .
 
Intello and Dawn Approach look superior on the book and with both at 9/4 the two will pay about 5/1 (ish) in a reversed forecast (assumimg they are returned those prices, this might not happen!). To me that looks the only bet, and better to back the reverse forecast than pick one to beat the other at 9/4 when they can not be split IMO.
 
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Its 7/4 in terms of stake to winning dividend at those prices, but the reverse forecast is a better bet than doing anything in the win-only market.
 
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With 3 pacemakers and a number of prominent racers, this looks certain to be run at a million mph, and I agree Moonlight Cloud's unlikely to make the frame.
Dawn Approach, conversely, has always looked a horse who needs further, but is kept to a mile owing to his headstrong propensity.This straight mile will play to his strengths much more than Goodwood, and I can't see him beaten.
Intello is clearly a high class colt but, even allowing he should have won the Poulains, his form at a mile doesn't stack up anywhere near Dawn Approach's.
 
It looks a tremendous contest and it's great to see all these top horses taking each other on despite hard recent races.

I think that might be the key to it, though. Intello has had an easier time of it lately than the other principals and that, coupled with his cruising speed, might be decisive.
 
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reet hard said:
Intello is clearly a high class colt but, even allowing he should have won the Poulains, his form at a mile doesn't stack up anywhere near Dawn Approach's.
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Playing Devil's advocate, but you cannot expect it to can you? A horse not seen to best effect in a messy Guineas then kept to a Group 3 is never going to have run the figures that a 5l Guineas/St James's Palace winner and Sussex runner-up.

Don't think anyone that would say Intello is a bet would say it because he's got the form in the book.
 
The JockeyClub isn'r over 1m though, Suny, and (last race apart) Intello has been pushed in every race he's run at the distance.
He's a middle distance horse, and though he might have the class to worry most at 1m, there's nothing at all in his form or profile to suggest he's of Dawn Approach's calibre - at that distance.
 
Galileo / Danehill cross? Dam line is full of black type milers and he's trained by Fabre. His profile won't hold him back. He needs a strongly run race granted but I don't think there is much between him and Dawn Approach.
 
I agree, and his relative freshness could be key. At the odds you can back both though so terribly priced is Moonlight Cloud.
 
It's a fair bet Fabre didn't see him as a miler when he introduced him over the distance as a 2yo, or when sent to race prominently in the Feilden. Truth is, he was trained like a middle distance horse until after the Jockey Club, and the drop back in trip probably owes more to his prospective stud value (if he adds a gp1 mile to his CV) for his owner/breeder than anything he's shown his trainer.
As it stands, Intello is a similar price to tough, proven, high-class gp1 miler, on little more than hype and his trainer's reputation.
 
reet hard said:
As it stands, Intello is a similar price to tough, proven, high-class gp1 miler, on little more than hype and his trainer's reputation.
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Hype??? With a better draw in the Poulains he'd be a duel Classic winner. ******* hype, it's the most overused bullshit buzzword in racing.

His level of form is only slightly behind Dawn Approach and his freshness relative to that horse is a massive advantage tomorrow.
 
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