Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021
- Thread starter Bachelors Hall
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Bachelors Hall
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Tomorrow's juvenile has been a regular fixture on Sandown's Tolworth card, although its winners' seasonal RPR tends to be a few pounds lower than that of the average type at the course. This is not to say that it does not feature reasonable types as the contest has was won by 2015 Chatteris Fen winner Arabian Revolution, and 2017 Victor Ludorum winner Don Bersy. Nevertheless, nothing from this race has gone on to be competitive in pattern company. This year's edition would probably be of a similar standard as while the field contains winners from bumpers and hurdles in France along with some fair types from the flat with questionable hurdling experience. An undulating, galloping track, its winning DIs of 0.97 median and 1.22 mean indicate that it is a testing circuit at the best of times, and the heavy going will place further emphasis on stamina. The clear round rate of 97.37% is one of the fairest in the country, although it can be somewhat trickier for newcomers. Odds on favourites have only a 55% strike rate and the median winning starting price of 4/1 is only higher at Cheltenham for British courses with five or more races which should deter analysts from complacency.
Hystery Bere bg Tom Symonds f3-0-0 (67.1) 56 j5-1-2 (134.2) 117
Pedro The Great (Mystery Storm){5-i}(1.00) 0.5 Chabal'ozor PU 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2013
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hystery-bere
Finishing down the field in three outings as a two-year-old, Hystery Bere was one of the outsides on his hurdling debut at Compiegne in a race won by Quilixios. Though he was towards the rear of the field, he was still in touch when giving his rider no chance of maintaining the partnership three from home. Following a respectable ten length fourth to Baladin de Mesc at Angers, he twice finished runner-up in conditions events. At Senonnes, he jumped untidily in what was a fairly moderate contest, but after a five week break, he handled a step up in class at Le Lion-d'Angers with merit. His jumping was as good as it had been to date, and while he found Blackiron six lengths too good, the winner beat Siroco Jo next time conceding seven kilos, and the remainder were upwards of nince lengths behind. Returning to the venue three weeks later, Hystery Bere finally got off the mark where, save for getting close to the fourth, he capped off another neat round of jumping to run out a decisive eight length winner. Third placed Harrisburg is a subsequent winner currently rated 136.4, but the rest of the field have done little to bolster the form. Four of Joël Boisnard's five previous graduates into the sphere failed to win, but the one who did, Song For Someone, is developing into a very talented hurdler for Hystery Bere's connections. Tom Symonds has a solid record in this division, and he also saddled the fairly useful Don Bersy to win the 2017 renewal of this contest on his second start. Just one of his fifteen juveniles has won first time out, but Hystery Bere has been given positive mentions in public. Pedro The Great has not had any juvenile hurdlers outside of France, but Hystery Bere has already shown himself a proficient jumper. However, his latest three efforts all came on good ground which will be a world apart from what he is set to encounter at Sandown. While Pedro The Great won the Phoenix Stakes on soft, and his half-brother Footstepsinthesand won the Kilavullan Stakes on the same ground, his sire Henrythenavigator was much better on a sounder surface and it is a trait often passed onto their progeny by the aforementioned. Hystery Bere is a very intriguing recruit for an in-form trainer, but it is difficult to ignore the highly conspicuous ground concerns.
Cloud Thunder grg Heather Main f7-0-4 (76) 82 j2-0-0 (-) 78 85
Poet's Voice (Smarty Jones){22-d}(1.29) 2/2 Uncle Muf PU Maiden Hurdle, Southwell 2015
Although Cloud Thunder failed to win in seven starts on the flat, and ended his first spell with a series of seconds, he ran to a fair level and could not be accused of being ungenuine. However, he was less convincing in his attitude and aptitude on his hurdling debut in the Summit Hurdle, and was decidedly capricious six days ago at Kempton when running out when passing the stands, and taking Warranty with him. Cloud Thunder's flat ability is not negligible, but he does not look a safe conveyance over hurdles and the yard has gone two months short of a decade since its last hurdles winner.
Hudson de Grugy bg Gary Moore FrB 4-1-1 j1-0-1 (-) 112 113
Falco (April Night){u}(3.44) 2/1 Rose de Grugy 2nd Grand Prix de la Ville de Nice (G3), Cagne-Sur-Mer 2013
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hudson-de-grugy
Gary Moore habitually sends his best juvenile hurdlers to Sandown, and Hudson de Grugy made his UK debut in the same introductory hurdle used by the yard for Goshen and Sussex Ranger. Hudson de Grugy ran four times in French bumpers, finishing unplaced on his first two outings, snatching second behind subsequent Grade 3 winner Hallatienne at Les Sables d'Olonne, before making all for a facile win at Le Gacilly in July. Although the form of that win is much of a muchness, the runner-up on that occasion did win next time out. He since left Adrien Fouassier to join a Gary Moore yard that won this race in 2013 with Knight Of Pleasure. Hudson de Grugy's most notable relative is the yard's top chaser Sire de Grugy, who appears at 3/2 on the damline. However, that is not the only winner in the family as half-brother Django de Grugy won a chase, the dam has three winning siblings, the third dam won three cross country chases while champion of the late eighties Oteuil (5/1) and 1997 Prix Jean Stern winner French Kankan (5/2) appear further back. He more than doubled in price in the ring ahead of his course and distance debut, from an opening 15/2 to 16/1 at flagfall. Prominent from the outset, he was encouraged into his flights which appeared to be a necessity as an absence of instruction at the fifth saw him get it completely wrong. He was still in contention approaching the last, but a blunder at the final obstacle gave the winner an advantage that proved critical. Hudson de Grugy was still able to maintain his lead over the remaining rivals and he emerged from the contest with plenty of potential. While on balance, he has probably achieved less than Hystery Bere, his course and distance form on heavy ground, along with a fitness edge, should be to his advantage.
Letter At Dawn bg Nigel Hawke f1-0-0 (-) 50
Dawn Approach (Galileo){19-b}(0.68) 2/1 Roches Cross 1st Gran Corsa Siepi Nazionale Hurdle (G1), Pisa 2017
Historic Heart and Peat Moss have both won this season for Nigel Hawke, having initially been under the care of Jim Bolger. Letter At Dawn is another such horse, although in the interim, he finished down the field in a Curragh maiden in early November for Brendan Duke. While a big horse who settled nicely in the rear, he never made any real impression on the race and was beaten by just under twenty lengths. Dawn Approach has yet to have any winners in the sphere from eight horses, but Galileo is a decent damsire and along with being out of a half-sister to a Grade One winning hurdler in Italy, is also related to useful jumpers Circus Star and Pole Star at 3/2. The trip and the ground should not be concerns, but more is needed in the way of proven ability and the yard's runners, whose first time out rate is just 4.55%, typically benefit from experience.
Warranty bg Harry Whittington f6-1-1 (68) 67 j2-0-0 (-) 96 100
Authorized (Giant's Causeway{16-c}(0.84) 1/1 Fally Jem 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2018
On his final start for Mark Johnston, Warranty won a moderate handicap at Beverley back in July. Lowly though that race was, the form has worked out well and while his racing on a better strip of ground may have enhanced his superiority, he still did it very easily and it was enough to warrant an auction price of £36,000. His jumps debut came at Wetherby in November and after being available at 9/1 in the morning, was backed down to 5/1 at the off. However, it was clear from the outset that he was likely to struggle as a string of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffle back to the rear of the field. While he attempted to make headway on the leaders, he never looked like moving into a challenging position and his sole reasonable jump at the penultimate flight was followed by a steady bunny-hop at the last. It would be difficult to assess his ability in isolation from his jumping as it was the latter which suffocated the former. By Authorized and closely related to dual three-year-old listed chase winner The Revenant, Warranty is well bred for the discipline and he will not want for stamina so it would be too soon to write him off. The way he jumped the first at Kempton six days ago was more encouraging, but that effort was cut short as he was carried out by Cloud Thunder on passing the stands. In the preview prior to that contest, I wrote that he might be better suited by a small field affair on a stiff track in testing ground. This is precisely what he will encounter at Sandown and on a track where the results can be muddling, Warranty might find himself being underestimated, even if the yard could be in better form.
Strong prospects
1. Warranty
Reasonable prospects
2. Hudson de Grugy
3. Hystery Bere
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Letter At Dawn
5. Cloud Thunder
Happy new year granger,
This seemed like a straightforward question at first, but in thinking of how to answer it, I encountered a set of diversions. In the most general sense, I think they are a strong and exciting crop. Following Riviere d'Etel's victory yesterday, we now have six Irish trained juveniles who have yet to taste defeat over hurdles outside of France - the other being Zanahiyr, Youmdor, Duffle Coat, French Aseel, and Quilixios - and all of them posting performances rated at least 130. By any measure, that makes for a very exciting state of affairs going into the next few months. This is not to mention those who have shown good form with the capacity to improve (Saint Sam, Ha d'Or and Busselton) or have not even raced in Ireland yet like Haut en Couleurs, who won in October and is now with Willie Mullins, and Teahupoo who beat Newbury winner Good Ball and is now with Gordon Elliott.
Compared to the British contingent, which is not without unexposed and potentially useful sorts in Monmiral, Heross d'Ainay and Good Ball, Ireland appears to have greater strength in depth.
Now compared to previous seasons, it is difficult to compare as there the current crop has yet to be significantly tested against older horses. Nevertheless, it might be helpful to contrast the compositions of those who emerged before new year's eve. Generally speaking, the most reliable indicators of success in the division are flat ability and hurdling experience in France. To this end, here are the statistics for the previous ten seasons. I added a column for percentage of 80+ rated flat horses against those who achieved a rating as this disrupted season will have led to fewer horses having the opportunity to earn an official rating.
Compared to previous seasons, the current crop's median official rating is the joint highest with 2014/15 - which ironically, would eventually be spearheaded by the ex-French Peace And Co and Top Notch. There have been fewer French Hurdlers this season, but the one with the most, 2015/16 was the season of Apple's Jade, Jer's Girl and Ivanovich Gorbatov - the latter two coming off the flat. What might be more useful could be to look at previous Anglo-Irish classifications and see which crops filled the most positions in later seasons. But first, I should really post the preview for tomorrow's race before I forget
Happy new year to you too Double J
I though the winner ended up being plenty short at 1/4 but there can be only one in each race. Was surprised Herbiers was allowed to get that big as the market seemed to think that a first run in a new country completely invalidated his promising win in France. Such is the way of these things...
Hystery Bere bg Tom Symonds f3-0-0 (67.1) 56 j5-1-2 (134.2) 117
Pedro The Great (Mystery Storm){5-i}(1.00) 0.5 Chabal'ozor PU 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2013
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hystery-bere
Finishing down the field in three outings as a two-year-old, Hystery Bere was one of the outsides on his hurdling debut at Compiegne in a race won by Quilixios. Though he was towards the rear of the field, he was still in touch when giving his rider no chance of maintaining the partnership three from home. Following a respectable ten length fourth to Baladin de Mesc at Angers, he twice finished runner-up in conditions events. At Senonnes, he jumped untidily in what was a fairly moderate contest, but after a five week break, he handled a step up in class at Le Lion-d'Angers with merit. His jumping was as good as it had been to date, and while he found Blackiron six lengths too good, the winner beat Siroco Jo next time conceding seven kilos, and the remainder were upwards of nince lengths behind. Returning to the venue three weeks later, Hystery Bere finally got off the mark where, save for getting close to the fourth, he capped off another neat round of jumping to run out a decisive eight length winner. Third placed Harrisburg is a subsequent winner currently rated 136.4, but the rest of the field have done little to bolster the form. Four of Joël Boisnard's five previous graduates into the sphere failed to win, but the one who did, Song For Someone, is developing into a very talented hurdler for Hystery Bere's connections. Tom Symonds has a solid record in this division, and he also saddled the fairly useful Don Bersy to win the 2017 renewal of this contest on his second start. Just one of his fifteen juveniles has won first time out, but Hystery Bere has been given positive mentions in public. Pedro The Great has not had any juvenile hurdlers outside of France, but Hystery Bere has already shown himself a proficient jumper. However, his latest three efforts all came on good ground which will be a world apart from what he is set to encounter at Sandown. While Pedro The Great won the Phoenix Stakes on soft, and his half-brother Footstepsinthesand won the Kilavullan Stakes on the same ground, his sire Henrythenavigator was much better on a sounder surface and it is a trait often passed onto their progeny by the aforementioned. Hystery Bere is a very intriguing recruit for an in-form trainer, but it is difficult to ignore the highly conspicuous ground concerns.
Cloud Thunder grg Heather Main f7-0-4 (76) 82 j2-0-0 (-) 78 85
Poet's Voice (Smarty Jones){22-d}(1.29) 2/2 Uncle Muf PU Maiden Hurdle, Southwell 2015
Although Cloud Thunder failed to win in seven starts on the flat, and ended his first spell with a series of seconds, he ran to a fair level and could not be accused of being ungenuine. However, he was less convincing in his attitude and aptitude on his hurdling debut in the Summit Hurdle, and was decidedly capricious six days ago at Kempton when running out when passing the stands, and taking Warranty with him. Cloud Thunder's flat ability is not negligible, but he does not look a safe conveyance over hurdles and the yard has gone two months short of a decade since its last hurdles winner.
Hudson de Grugy bg Gary Moore FrB 4-1-1 j1-0-1 (-) 112 113
Falco (April Night){u}(3.44) 2/1 Rose de Grugy 2nd Grand Prix de la Ville de Nice (G3), Cagne-Sur-Mer 2013
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hudson-de-grugy
Gary Moore habitually sends his best juvenile hurdlers to Sandown, and Hudson de Grugy made his UK debut in the same introductory hurdle used by the yard for Goshen and Sussex Ranger. Hudson de Grugy ran four times in French bumpers, finishing unplaced on his first two outings, snatching second behind subsequent Grade 3 winner Hallatienne at Les Sables d'Olonne, before making all for a facile win at Le Gacilly in July. Although the form of that win is much of a muchness, the runner-up on that occasion did win next time out. He since left Adrien Fouassier to join a Gary Moore yard that won this race in 2013 with Knight Of Pleasure. Hudson de Grugy's most notable relative is the yard's top chaser Sire de Grugy, who appears at 3/2 on the damline. However, that is not the only winner in the family as half-brother Django de Grugy won a chase, the dam has three winning siblings, the third dam won three cross country chases while champion of the late eighties Oteuil (5/1) and 1997 Prix Jean Stern winner French Kankan (5/2) appear further back. He more than doubled in price in the ring ahead of his course and distance debut, from an opening 15/2 to 16/1 at flagfall. Prominent from the outset, he was encouraged into his flights which appeared to be a necessity as an absence of instruction at the fifth saw him get it completely wrong. He was still in contention approaching the last, but a blunder at the final obstacle gave the winner an advantage that proved critical. Hudson de Grugy was still able to maintain his lead over the remaining rivals and he emerged from the contest with plenty of potential. While on balance, he has probably achieved less than Hystery Bere, his course and distance form on heavy ground, along with a fitness edge, should be to his advantage.
Letter At Dawn bg Nigel Hawke f1-0-0 (-) 50
Dawn Approach (Galileo){19-b}(0.68) 2/1 Roches Cross 1st Gran Corsa Siepi Nazionale Hurdle (G1), Pisa 2017
Historic Heart and Peat Moss have both won this season for Nigel Hawke, having initially been under the care of Jim Bolger. Letter At Dawn is another such horse, although in the interim, he finished down the field in a Curragh maiden in early November for Brendan Duke. While a big horse who settled nicely in the rear, he never made any real impression on the race and was beaten by just under twenty lengths. Dawn Approach has yet to have any winners in the sphere from eight horses, but Galileo is a decent damsire and along with being out of a half-sister to a Grade One winning hurdler in Italy, is also related to useful jumpers Circus Star and Pole Star at 3/2. The trip and the ground should not be concerns, but more is needed in the way of proven ability and the yard's runners, whose first time out rate is just 4.55%, typically benefit from experience.
Warranty bg Harry Whittington f6-1-1 (68) 67 j2-0-0 (-) 96 100
Authorized (Giant's Causeway{16-c}(0.84) 1/1 Fally Jem 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2018
On his final start for Mark Johnston, Warranty won a moderate handicap at Beverley back in July. Lowly though that race was, the form has worked out well and while his racing on a better strip of ground may have enhanced his superiority, he still did it very easily and it was enough to warrant an auction price of £36,000. His jumps debut came at Wetherby in November and after being available at 9/1 in the morning, was backed down to 5/1 at the off. However, it was clear from the outset that he was likely to struggle as a string of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffle back to the rear of the field. While he attempted to make headway on the leaders, he never looked like moving into a challenging position and his sole reasonable jump at the penultimate flight was followed by a steady bunny-hop at the last. It would be difficult to assess his ability in isolation from his jumping as it was the latter which suffocated the former. By Authorized and closely related to dual three-year-old listed chase winner The Revenant, Warranty is well bred for the discipline and he will not want for stamina so it would be too soon to write him off. The way he jumped the first at Kempton six days ago was more encouraging, but that effort was cut short as he was carried out by Cloud Thunder on passing the stands. In the preview prior to that contest, I wrote that he might be better suited by a small field affair on a stiff track in testing ground. This is precisely what he will encounter at Sandown and on a track where the results can be muddling, Warranty might find himself being underestimated, even if the yard could be in better form.
Strong prospects
1. Warranty
Reasonable prospects
2. Hudson de Grugy
3. Hystery Bere
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Letter At Dawn
5. Cloud Thunder
Happy new year granger,
This seemed like a straightforward question at first, but in thinking of how to answer it, I encountered a set of diversions. In the most general sense, I think they are a strong and exciting crop. Following Riviere d'Etel's victory yesterday, we now have six Irish trained juveniles who have yet to taste defeat over hurdles outside of France - the other being Zanahiyr, Youmdor, Duffle Coat, French Aseel, and Quilixios - and all of them posting performances rated at least 130. By any measure, that makes for a very exciting state of affairs going into the next few months. This is not to mention those who have shown good form with the capacity to improve (Saint Sam, Ha d'Or and Busselton) or have not even raced in Ireland yet like Haut en Couleurs, who won in October and is now with Willie Mullins, and Teahupoo who beat Newbury winner Good Ball and is now with Gordon Elliott.
Compared to the British contingent, which is not without unexposed and potentially useful sorts in Monmiral, Heross d'Ainay and Good Ball, Ireland appears to have greater strength in depth.
Now compared to previous seasons, it is difficult to compare as there the current crop has yet to be significantly tested against older horses. Nevertheless, it might be helpful to contrast the compositions of those who emerged before new year's eve. Generally speaking, the most reliable indicators of success in the division are flat ability and hurdling experience in France. To this end, here are the statistics for the previous ten seasons. I added a column for percentage of 80+ rated flat horses against those who achieved a rating as this disrupted season will have led to fewer horses having the opportunity to earn an official rating.
Compared to previous seasons, the current crop's median official rating is the joint highest with 2014/15 - which ironically, would eventually be spearheaded by the ex-French Peace And Co and Top Notch. There have been fewer French Hurdlers this season, but the one with the most, 2015/16 was the season of Apple's Jade, Jer's Girl and Ivanovich Gorbatov - the latter two coming off the flat. What might be more useful could be to look at previous Anglo-Irish classifications and see which crops filled the most positions in later seasons. But first, I should really post the preview for tomorrow's race before I forget
Happy new year to you too Double J
I though the winner ended up being plenty short at 1/4 but there can be only one in each race. Was surprised Herbiers was allowed to get that big as the market seemed to think that a first run in a new country completely invalidated his promising win in France. Such is the way of these things...
Bachelors Hall
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Forgot to review a couple of handicap performances from Boxing Day, so this with the proceeding batch of reviews should bring us up to the 27th I think.
Bourbali 26/12/2020 Wincanton 1m7½f Handicap Hurdle (104)
Bourbali's racecourse debut came at Plumpton in September where he was narrowly denied a winning start by Peat Moss. He shaped well enough next time at Chepstow, but following a six week break, he disappointed in what should have been more suitable conditions at Exeter where he jumped and travelled lead before fading late on. He pulled hard in the early stages, but was able to settle better before too long. However, his jumping was not as good as it can be as he made a blunder at the second, was untidy over the next, steadied slightly at the fourth, went through the top of the fifth, and steadied while failing to get high enough at two out. Leading or disputing for much of the contest, he was still in contention turning into the straight but lost touch shortly afterwards. From a form perspective, this essentially matches his Exeter performance, and while he was superior to Peat Moss here, Bourbali is not progressing as much as could have been expected from his earlier outings. He has since been dropped to 101 which might become a generous mark, possibly over a sterner test. 95
Peat Moss 26/12/2020 Wincanton 1m7½f Handicap Hurdle (103)
Peat Moss ran in the first juvenile hurdle of the season, and posted his best performance when winning at Plumpton in September. He was making his seventh start over hurdles, and fourth in the handicap company where he was not disgraced last time at Doncaster over half a mile further. He jumped fine on that occasion, and while there was a slight regression as he veered left at the first and took off long at the fourth, this was not a poor round of hurdling. However, from a racing perspective, this was his worst showing since August as he never left the rear of the field and finished the race a thirty-five length twelfth of fourteen finishers. He was dropped to a mark of 99 which could be a fair mark over further and on a sounder surface. 81
LEOPARDSTOWN 27th December
Preview review
The front two were the correct two but in the wrong order, Ilmig's prospects were enhanced by the conditions, Dark Voyager, Flying Scotsman and Charlie Bassett were compromised by the rain, and Trezibond was given feasible prospects for a newcomer. The only concern regarding the preview is that French Aseel (who was a tissue 16/1) may have been given strong prospects were it not for withdrawals. On the one hand, a series of withdrawals might indicate a difficult in training and a diminished level of fitness. Conversely, it may also indicate that the trainer thinks a lot of the horse and would not allow it to compete until it was completely ready. A case repeated at Wetherby by Hacker Des Places. Otherwise, this was a satisfactory preview.
Race review
Previous renewals of this race have produced four Grade One juvenile wins, a further twelve Grade One places, and six wins in other graded contests since 2005. This year's edition lacked somewhat in depth, but the winner was a very impressive one and a few in behind could also be competitive in pattern company during the second half of the season. The pace was a solid one and apart from some chaos at the first two flights which resulted in a couple of unseats, there were no hard luck stories insofar as the protagonists were concerned. However, the winning time was 3.6 seconds slower than the hanicap hurdle, 4.6 seconds slower than the Grade One novice, and despite Zanahiyr's race the previous day being ran at a snail's pace with two additional hurdles to jump, it was still 2.2 seconds slower than that contest. Furthermore, it was also the slowest of all bar one of the previous ten renewals and while this might be indicitive of a lack of class, it more reveals that the ground was deeper than the soft, yielding in places suggests. The winner won the race with impetuous ease from a strung out field consisting of acceptably placed horses. Though it would be an exaggeration to describe it as top class form, there would be little reason to suggest it is anything but reliable and above average.
French Aseel won one of his nine starts in France for Philippe Decouz, but earned an equivalent mark of 82.4 and despite never racing beyond a mile, shaped as though a trip would suit. Heavy ground would also be beneficial and the skies opened nicely ahead of his delayed Irish debut. He had been entered in earlier races, and was withdrawn from an intended debut at Cork with a stone bruise. Nevertheless, he was well supported from double digit figures the previous day and started the race as 7/2 favourite. Tracking the leaders throughout, he was keen early and was still taking a grip towards the end of the back straight. His jumping was not impressive either as he was very big over the first, steadied and got in close to the second, was close again the fourth, big over the fifth and close again into what would be the last. He was left in front after leaving the back after the leader faded, and without so much as being shaken up, extended his advantage to twenty-two lengths on the line. For a performance so visually impressive, it is worth probing for negatives in order to gain perspective. Firstly, the winning time, however it is cut, is poor and while French Aseel won on the bridle, it is not guaranteed he would have found the several seconds needed to make it more respectable. Secondly, the way he travelled and jumped were not characteristic of a top class horse. And thirdly, he beat a hurdling newcomer, a horse who already needs four miles, a racecourse debutant, and a succession of horses who did not go in the ground. All of this notwithstanding, there is time for him to improve his jumping and travelling, the experience will do him good, and the form would still be in the top-five performances seen this season. While he still needs to prove himself against more substantial opposition, and on a sounder surface, French Aseel is still an exciting recruit to the division and will attract plenty of interest wherever he next appears. 137
Coltor only made his racecourse debut at the end of August, but was not disgraced on his first two outings at Navan, and won on his third start at Navan over eleven furlongs on soft ground. A rare juvenile hurdler for Dermot Weld, he is bred to flourish in the sphere being a son of Free Eagle, and a relative of Limini, Call My Guest and Vintage Crop. He was not unbacked in the market and started the race sixth in the betting at 6/1. Settling well early on, he was held up in the rear and still had some nine horses ahead of him leaving the back. He made headway down the side and would reach the front of the chasing group at the elbow. He had no chance of catching the runaway winner, but in his absence, would have been a comfortable six length winner himself. His round of jumping was one of the cleanest in the field, and the only discernible flaw was where he very slightly skewed and pecked on landing at the third. The distance by which he was beaten puts a dampener on the performance from a form perspective, and he may be seen to better effect with an even sterner stamina test in due course. Nevertheless, it was a very commendable debut effort on his first run for eighty-four days, and he has set a solid foundation for his new career. 112
Ilmig began his racing career in October but he already managed a win by his second outing and was a promising second on his hurdling debut at Punchestown the following month. He failed to justify odds-on favouritism at Fairyhouse a fortnight prior to this outing, but was sent off second favourite to make amends here. There has been little cause for complaint in his hurdling thus far and apart from steadying and getting close to the second, jumped well once again. Held up in midfield, he moved to within a length of the lead approaching the last. However, he lacked the acceleration to maintain his place and would need most of the long run-in to regain his lost positions. Ilmig is probably more consistent than appears on the surface as he does not run bad races. Rather, and despite having an American pedigree in which includes Breeder's Cup Filly And Mare Sprint winner Covfefe at 2/2, and champion sprinter Green Desert at 4/2, he has a distinct lack of pace. It is also worth noting that the yard's juveniles rarely do well this time of year, and the stable has not been in good form in any case which would also paint this performance in a more sympathetic light. Ilmig is certainly talented enough to win a race of his own, and could also be a productive sort beyond the juvenile division. 106
Trebizond initially cost Godolphin 300,000 guineas as a yearling, but this close relative of Palace Pier never ran on the flat and joined Henry de Bromhead for nearly a tenth of the original price in September. Unraced newcomers generally have a poor record in the sphere. Nevertheless, Golden Horn has made a solid start as a sire of juveniles, and with Rachael Blackmore on board, Trebizond was sent off third favourite at 5/1. He was fresh early without being worryingly keen, but he made a tremendous blunder at the first and skewed in mid air at the third. The remainder of his hurdlers were taken well enough and having initially been ridden conservatively, he stayed on at one pace on the run-in to reach his best position inside the final half-furlong. Though a long way behind the winner, he will have learned a lot from this experience and can improve sufficiently to be competitive in ordinary company. 103
Flying Scotsman landed a double at the Galway Festival, and ended his first stint on the flat with a mark of 87. However, he drifted from short prices on his first two outings and went from 7/2 to 11/2 in the ring ahead of this contest. His jumping has lacked assurance in the past and there was little discernible improvement third time out. He kicked his legs out at the first, steadied into the second, was slightly untidy over the fourth and fifth before steadying again into the last. Though he was certainly close enough going into the last, he was unable to find anything on the run-in and finished beaten by thirty-seven lengths. The first time application of a tongue tie was of no real assistance and the ground would have been unsuitable in any case. He has come nowhere near reaching his flat mark, but he could emerge as a well treated sort. Particular on dryer ground. 97
Charlie Bassett has now gone thirteen races without a win, but he is a consistent type as well as a reasonable jumper. Apart from not getting particularly high at the fourth, he put in another acceptable round and was disputing second place just before the elbow. However, if anything can be held against Charlie Basset, then it would be a lack of stamina and it was this deficiency which saw him fade quickly in the closing stages. He is capable of better but will need a much sharper test to be seen to better effect. 96
Ahaziah is rated just 37 on the flat, and though he improved between his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse and his latest effort at Cork, he still had plenty to find. He was big over the first at it was the same case here, but beyond that, he posted an adequate round of jumping. Initially tracking the leaders, he lost his position towards the end of the back. However, once he was absorbed by the pack, he did not really lose any further ground. While finishing seventh off 125/1 implies he outran his odds, this performance was no stronger than that of his second outing. He is a good stone off this sort of level, but is showing himself a fair type who can be competitive in moderate company. 95
Dark Voyager's second to Zanahiyr looks better with each performance by the former, and it was much the strongest hurdles form brought into this race. He was sent off at 11/10 to break his duck next time at Punchestown, but while he jumped well enough, he stopped quickly and was beaten twenty-two lengths. Some had retained faith in him as while he drifted from 11/4 in the morning, he still started as third third favourite. However, his jumping was not the cleanest it had been as he was steady into the second, close into the fourth, and he dived at the next. Although he was still in a clear second at the top of the straight, he faded quickly from thereon and was eventually beaten forty-one lengths. His stamina and resolve had been debatable going into this race and there was nothing here to alleviate those concerns. He may be rejuvenated by a speedier test or maybe a handicap mark, but his profile is also beginning to look precarious. 94
Iberia is the highest rated flat recruit seen to this point, having earned a triple digit rating when third in the Royal Lodge, and vindicating same in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on his return in June. Though beating just two home in the Irish Derby and finishing last in a listed race at this venue when last seen in July, even those performances were stronger than anything achieved by the opposition. His joining John Halley instead of Joseph O'Brien dampened his prospects, and he drifted from 15/2 in the morning to 20/1 at the start. Racing in the rear, he was slow at the third and was already getting reminders at that stage. Nevertheless, he still jumped respectably and was moving into contention with intent when getting badly baulked on landing at the last. This effectively put paid to his race and he made no more contribution beyond passing beaten horses. Taken at face value, this was a disappointing effort. However, he is the closest it gets to an unlucky horse in this particular contest as it is feasible he could have improved several places but for being badly impeded at a critical stage. 88
Next In Line won twice on the flat and earned a rating of 80 in the process. However, her breeding is not especially conducive to her new vocation and the trainer has no winners in the division. A quietly fancied outsider, she was hampered at the first, got in slightly close to the next and veered left at the fifth. Kept in mid-division, she never got into the body of the pack and would come home in her own time. Not a disgraceful introduction, not an encouraging one either. 80
Hisnameis Mrdevitt is another dual winner from the flat, but had not shown good form on his latest three starts and other than being a distant relative of Min, is not bred for the division either. He doubled in price from 40/1 in the morning, to 80/1 at the off, and his cause was not helped by getting baulked at the first. He then steadied into the next, got in close to the third and jumped left at the fifth. He managed to join the rear of the pack turning for home and kept up for about a furlong, but would fade in the closing stages. 83
Loved Out began as 5/4 favourite ahead of his hurdling debut at Punchestown, but it was by dint of the low quality in opposition. Had he been ridden more ambitiously, it is possible he may have won first time over hurdles. However, his defeat can more be attributed to his poor jumping and his round was little better here. Always in the rear, he was big and skewed over the first few obstacles before developing a habit of steadying into his flights. Though he kept on to some degree on the long run-in, he was still over twenty lengths behind the third at the line. He is capable of better and while he was subsequently beaten twenty-seven lengths back at Punchestown on new year's eve, he was very well backed to finish third of the sixteen finishers. 81
Pushover achieved nothing better than moderate form on the flat, and also had stamina concerns coming into the race. She started completely unfancied and never left the rear of the field before finishing tailed off. Save for jumping left at the first, her hurdling was fine, but there is little else to be drawn from this outing. 24
Royal Marksman's best effort from seven flat outings was a third off 45 at Dundalk over seven furlongs in October. His sire is not likely to make an impact in the sphere and the trainer has yet to saddle a winner in the division. Starting at 150/1, Royal Marksman led from the start and developed a lead for half a dozen lengths. He was very big over the first, also gave the second some air, and was very slow over the third which cost him his advantage. He regained some of his advantage along the back, and was still in front at the beginning of the home turn, but he was a tired horse by that stage and would weaken dramatically to finish hopelessly tailed off. 0
French Asset has the flat ability and the right trainer to do well in the sphere. However, he achieved very little on his hurdling debut, and managed even less in subsequent starts. Lacking fluency on his first two outings, he was also poor here as he veered left at the first, got in close to the third, and was slow over the fourth. 0
Complete Fiction is not unfeasibly bred for a hurdling career and has joined a solid trainer in the division. However, his flat form is no better than moderate and while he jumped the first two flights reasonably well, he was soon getting reminders whereafter his jumping deteriorated. He was getting detached before leaving the back and finished the race almost two-hundred lengths behind the winner. 0
Firstman won twice on the flat in France and while generally finishing nearer last than midfield in four runs for his new yard, was not running abhorrently in the context of this discipline. He was not fancied in the market, but received little luck in any case as he was badly hampered at the first before a loose horse separated Firstman from Peter Carberry at the second. Perversely, this was not an introduction without some promise however as he continued jumping with the rest of the field and while he steadied going into his other flights, the riderless Firstman still passed the post in third position. 0
Poetica's best flat effort for Mark Johnston was a fourth off 58 at Chelmsford, two races before joining the Shark Hanlon yard. Her debut at Cork can be ignored as her saddle slipped at the second and she unseated at the fifth. This effort can also be ignored as she was hampered and unseated at the first. 0
KEMPTON 27th December
Preview review
The strong prospect finished first, although it can not be said for certain if he would have gotten the best of feasible prospect Honneur d'Ajonc had the latter not capitulated at the last. Honneur d'Ajonc made a promising debut at Exeter and although he may have been better suited by the demands of Chepstow than of Kempton, the easing of conditions were in his favour. Her Indoors would finish second by virtue of her noted flat speed which offset her noted poor jumping. Siroco Jo was a disappointment, but he was backward on his French outing and a drift in the market foreshadowed his moderate jumping.
Race review
A race with a history of producing good juveniles, it has continued in this vein since becoming an introductory hurdle in 2016. The latest edition had every potential to be a useful affair and despite Siroco Jo disappointing, the winner and the final flight faller could be decent recruits. The front two approaching the last were clear of the remainder who were headed by benchmarks who while flawed and limited, also set a helpful standard.Despite a quicker early gallop, the winning time was over two seconds slower than that set in the concluding handicap hurdle. Although the ground will have dried through the day and being a Class 3 contest, the juveniles recorded a reasonable time for the division.
Heross Du Seuil came into the race as something of an unknown quantity as he was a comfortable winner of an ordinary AQPS flat race back in August. Nevertheless, he joined a leading yard which does well with his type, and is closely related to Defi du Seuil. Held up towards the rear, he settled well for a fresh and inexperienced horse, and while he was slow and steady at several of his flights, it was not enough to warrant strong trepidation and he also put in a few clean jumps along the way. Making headway to join the front rank turning for home, a steady approach to the penultimate flight cost him a length on the leader. He got to within half a length at the last and, with his rival's capitulation, was left unopposed on the run-in. It is difficult to speculate on whether he would have won had Honneur d'Ajonc stayed on his feet as while his opponent did get first run and Heross du Seuil was going through the gears, the former jumped the last quicker and while the latter was ridden out for much of the run-in, his stride was not lengthening and it took him nearly eighteen seconds to get from the last to the line. Nevertheless, it was still a highly promising introduction to hurdles and with fitness, experience and more fluent jumping, Heross du Seuil can develop into a useful sort. 125
Her Indoors had been destined to become a juvenile hurdler before she developed into a fairly useful sort on the flat, and her being thrown into Listed company on her jumps debut at Aintree was rewarded with an encouraging second. Four hurdles were omitted on that occasion which very probably helped her finish second instead of first as there was much to be desired from her jumping. While she was backed into favouritism, it was unlikely to be based on exceptional schooling reports as she was less than exemplary once again. After a big hop at the first, she steadied into and was close at the second, close again and the fourth and fifth, slow over the sixth, and steady and close over the penultimate flight. She used her flat speed to gain a place on the run-in at Aintree and did so once again here, gaining half-a-dozen lengths after the last to finish second by a half length. An improver on the flat, Her Indoors patently has the ability to win a race and progress beyond this level. However, it is essential that her hurdling improves beforehand. 108
Ambassador bookended his flat career for Richard Fahey with a pair of third placed finishes, and made a respectable start to his hurdling career at Warwick seventeen days earlier. Save for a couple of errors, he posting a decent enough round of jumping, and other than skewing at the first and getting the last wrong, was competent once again. Racing wide behind the leaders, he was on the premises turning in without being able to make a challenge and was weak in the concluding stages of the race. Nevertheless, it was an improved effort from a form perspective and while he is quite limited in his scope, the ability to win an ordinary contest is there. 115
Royaume Uni won on the flat in France for Andre Fabre and is bred to be a capable hurdler. He completely lacked fluency on his British debut at Sandown three weeks earlier, but while he was weak in the market beforehand, posted an improved round of jumping second time out. He was slightly baulked at the first and fifth, but apart from steadying at the fourth and being slow over two out, gave a honest hurdling display. Despite winning over 2900 meters on soft ground at Angers, he finished tired here and may show more when reaching a better standard of fitness. 103
Sarceaux won the second of her three starts for Mikael Delzangles, which came in a provincial race on good ground. While the trainer has already had a large priced winning juvenile this season, Sacreaux went into this race completely unfancied having missed her intended hurdling debut at Aintree on account of the ground. Setting off fairly prominently, she was untidy at the first two and steadied into the fifth and sixth before losing her position on the turn for home. This was not a debut without promise and while she may end up being no better on fair, there are moderate enough races on better ground in which she might be competitive in due course. 92
Alborkan had won two of his last three starts on the flat for Amy Murphy, and despite being purchased by Venetia Williams, has stayed in Newmarket for his hurdling career. While his flat rating of 75 alone is enough to warrant respect in this discipline, his tough attitude made him especially endearing. He went over the first two flights adequately, but his jumping deteriorated away from the stands as he steadied slightly into the third, got in close to the fourth, clipped the top of the fifth and got in especially close to three out where his stride was awkward in its aftermath. Nevertheless, he still moved well enough to briefly go into second on the turn for home, but had nothing else to give from thereon in and would fade in the straight. It is worth noting that while generally a consistent sort, his two worst efforts on the flat came after a break. Having returned here after a sixty-eight day lay-off and demonstrating ability and aptitude in certain stages of this race, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to build on this outing. 98
Sly Minx began her three-year-old campaign well enough with a seventh in a listed race, a second in a Beverley maiden and a win at Catterick in early July. However, she was well beaten on her final two starts for Mick Channon and poor jumping saw her hopelessly tailed off on her hurdling debut at Fontwell. Completely unfancied and keen early here, she was very untidy at the first, skewed badly at the third, went left at the fifth and got in too close to three out. Never leaving the rear, she ultimately finished tailed off. She reportedly lost her near-fore shoe. 29
Siroco Jo split a pair of reasonable types at Clairefontaine in August and would likely have won but for being so inexperienced. Representing a yard which has won this race with good sorts over the years, he started the day at 3/1 but was nearly double that price at the start. Though he settled nicely enough just behing the leaders, he was steady and close at the first two flights, got the fourth flight wrong, tried to jump the road after four out, and was steady again at three out. While still in contention entering the home turn, he was being hard ridden and quickly lost touch prior to pulling up before the penultimate flight. This was obviously a disappointing performance but he should not yet be written off. The first time out strike rate for the yard's French recruits is 34.18% for hurdlers and 24.00% for flat imports. However, while these are impressive figures, Siroco Jo's underperformance is not inherently exacerbated by the trainer's good record as the second time out rates increase to 37.1% and 44.44% respectively. Ex-French Paul Nicholls juveniles beaten first time amount to fifty-two, of which twenty-four won their next start in the division including Anniversary winner All Yours, Finale winner Quel Destin and Fred Winter winner Qualando as well as future talents such as Frodon, Saphir du Rheu and Brampour. This season alone, Viroflay and Hacker des Places are both flat recruits who obliged after disappointing first runs. However, it should also be noted that none of these redeemers were actually pulled up first time so while the statistics offer Siroco Jo some saving grace, he still has to account for his own actions. 0
Jalwan never raced beyond an extended nine furlongs on the flat and there is no indication on breeding that he will make a jumper. Though shorter in the market than stablemate Royaume Uni, Jalwan was still relatively unfancied ahead of his hurdles bow, and first run since August. Held up in the rear, he was untidy over the second and not much better at the third, and began to get detached on the stretch before the turn before pulling up after three out. He reportedly bled through the nose. 0
Warranty was a good winner of a Beverley maiden handicap on his final start for Mark Johnston, a race which worked out better than its description suggests. However, he jumped sloppily and without confidence first time at Wetherby and was beaten nineteen lengths. Running in first time blinkers here, he jumped the first flight well and brushed through the top of the second. That was the end of his examination as he was carried out at the bend shortly afterwards. While it is difficult to assess such a limited performance, the way he jumped the first was encouraging and it will be hoped that the drama does not curtail this improvement. 0
Cloud Thunder finished runner up on his final three flat outings, and was thrown into the deep end on his hurdling debut in Doncaster's Summit Hurdle. Keen in the early stages and was a novicey jumper, he finished that race tired and tailed off. These were calmer waters but his participation was short lived as he made a mess at the first, was better at the second, but chose to run out rather than have anything else to do with the hurdling business. He is not short on flat ability and seemed genuine enough in that sphere. However, his regard for his new profession is dubious. 0
Honneur d'Ajonc had not seen the racecourse prior to his Exeter bow in November, but he travelled well and apart from a few errors, jumped very acceptably before finishing second to Monmiral. His pedigree and style of racing suggested that he may have preferred conditions at Chepstow than here. Nevertheless, he was not short of supporters in the market and made a good impression second time out. Though he was keep early, he jumped quickly and tidily and went into the lead left by the drama at the first turn. This lead, while threatened up the straight by Heross du Seuill, was only relinquished at the last where though he took off well enough, he was unable to get his front feet out in time, consequently knuckling and going arse over tits. Fortunately, he appeared to get up happily enough and though his shins will likely be a bit sore, it will be hoped that his confidence will not be aversely affected. While Honneur d'Ajonc still has a fair amount to learn, he has quickly shown himself a horse with strong potential in terms of ability and aptitude. 125
WETHERBY 27th December
Preview review
The strong prospect was a very long way clear of the sole remaining reasonable prospect, and the sole remaining reasonable prospect was even further clear of the remainder. The task of Hacker Des Places was made considerably easier by the withdrawal of three competitive rivals, and the fact he could jump and go through the ground turned the contest into a formality. Caldwell did not appear to have any issues with the ground and the yard's record at the venue was noted, although so too was his conspicuous headcarriage which translated into a poor round of jumping. Sir Charles Punch lacked conviction in his jumping once again and Danger Money is still some way off showing his better form. Other than erroneously stating that Brian Ellison had two runners in the race due to a late night brain-fart, there is nothing really to revisit and address.
Race review
With the withdrawals of En Couleur, Herbiers and Kings Creek turned this into a one horse race. The going was heavy and there was driving rain throughout the race so conditions were especially demanding. Most of the field did not go through the ground and those who did jumped poorly. The pace was set by the winner and was sufficient to demolish his opponents. The winning time was just a second and a half slower than the earlier novice which is quite laudable given that the aforementioned was somewhat competitive and was not run a heavy shower. The field finished well strung out and in a feasible order, but in strict terms of pounds per length, the form would only really be of interest on the rare instances that they return to running on a ploughed field.
Hacker Des Places finished third to Paros on his debut before winning his own race at Dax in June. He was a well supported favourite on his UK debut at Wincanton, and did not run poorly behind his stablemate. However, in the context of his starting price of 4/9, that performance could only be viewed as a disappointment. He missed a couple of engagements prior to his return to the track, but the patience of the connections was rewarded with an emphatic success. He had been fresh on all three starts to date, which was particularly to his detriment at Wincanton, and was also prone to some sloppy jumping. While he was somewhat keen early on, he settled before too long and his hurdling prior to the straight was fine with his transgressions limited to jumping slightly to his right. He got in close to three out, and rapped the top of the last two, but he was still the best jumper in the race by a considerable margin. Leading throughout and taking the shortest route rather than searching for better ground, his main rival was within a length jumping the third last. That margin doubled without any stimulus from the rider by the penultimate flight, and after being shaken up on the approach to the, the gap extended to well over a dozen lengths and he was pushed out to finish with a superiority of a distance. In the review of Siroco Jo's performance, the record of Paul Nicholls horses who failed to win on their first starts was addressed in detail. Insofar as what happens in the third race of a stable's juvenile who won after a defeat is concerned, one overcorrection is met with another overcorrection as only two of the nineteen qualifiers sustain their redemption. Notwithstanding, the return to heavy ground saw Hacker des Places in a much more favourable light and while rating the performance of such an isolated winner is generally much of a muchness, it would be fair to say that he is not without talent and should continue his progress when facing these conditions. 124
Caldwell first saw the racecourse in late August and was placed on the first two of his three starts for Dermot Weld. The standard of form is perfectly respectable in the context of this discipline and while he was withdrawn on account of heavy ground at Listowel, he was not entirely unsuited by the conditions here. A more conspicuous misgiving from the flat was his peculiar headcarriage and this translated into a very sloppy round of jumping on his hurdles debut. He steadied into the first where he jumped big and to the left, was big and left at the second, steadied and got close to the third, was close and skewed over the fourth, close again into the fifth, clipped the top and stumbled on landing at the sixth (this was his best jump of the race), skewed and went left at the seventh and eighth and was big and skewed over the last. Tracking the leader throughout, he was taken the scenic route and was still in contention at the top of the straight. The futility of his task revealed itself as the race began to wrap up and rather sensibly, he was given nothing harsher than a hands and heels ride and was allowed to come home in his own time with almost fifty lengths in hand over his remaining opponents. Though he was beaten a distance, this was still a promising debut as in the absence of Hacker des Places, he would have been a very impressive winner in spite of the litany of jumping errors. His jumping absolutely needs to improve and he might also benefit from a date with a pair of scissors. Nevertheless, having his first run for over two months, he should be fitter for the experience and if it does not have the impact of draining him too much, he should be competitive in ordinary company. 86
Sir Charles Punch's Achilles heel on the flat was that while he had ability, his propensity to get worked up preventing him from exercising same. Over jumps, he has settled better but instead, has a complete lack of confidence over his hurdles. While the round also featured some untidiness, his penchant for steadying into his hurdles is proving costly and unless this is addressed then this now fifteen race maiden will continue to underachieve. 38
Danger Money finished his flat career for Andrew Oliver with a rating of 92 which is one of the highest seen in the division this season. However, his last two starts in Ireland were regressive and there was a suspicion that he was growing sour. Though not unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut, he showed no sign of a rejuvenation and his jumping left a lot to be desired as he lacked fluency and made several quite bad errors. Although bad jumps debuts from good flat horses can often be forgiven, Danger Money is making a habit of running poorly. 38
Spantik is a dual winner on the flat, including on his penultimate outing at Newcastle in early November where he took a ten furlong handicap off a deflated mark of 61. He skewed over the first, was somewhat big over the third, was slow over the seventh and went through the top off two out. Nevertheless, his round was not the worst on display and he settled better than he had done on the flat. He was still completely tailed off although it was reported that he lost his near-fore shoe. 28
Fahad jumped poorly but passed beaten horses on his hurdling debut at Catterick on good ground, then returned to the venue where he jumped marginally better but was well beaten on soft ground. Here in heavy ground, he jumped poorly and never left the rear. He also lost his near-fore shoe. 11
El Jefe was moderate on the flat, but his best effort came last time when second in a Redcar handicap off 51. That was his first outing after a wind operation, and eighty-five days later, he was very well backed to make a winning hurdles debut here. However, while he jumped well enough save for going left at the second and steadying at the fourth, he took a keen hold up from the start to the home straight where he faded to finish over a hundred lengths behind the winner. 9
Flight Command won a mile handicap off 53 on his final start in Ireland and Samuel Drinkwater's first juvenile hurdler is not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. However, without being bad, his jumping was untidy and he was dropped from a midfield position at the end of the straight whereafter he was pulled up. 0
Bourbali 26/12/2020 Wincanton 1m7½f Handicap Hurdle (104)
Bourbali's racecourse debut came at Plumpton in September where he was narrowly denied a winning start by Peat Moss. He shaped well enough next time at Chepstow, but following a six week break, he disappointed in what should have been more suitable conditions at Exeter where he jumped and travelled lead before fading late on. He pulled hard in the early stages, but was able to settle better before too long. However, his jumping was not as good as it can be as he made a blunder at the second, was untidy over the next, steadied slightly at the fourth, went through the top of the fifth, and steadied while failing to get high enough at two out. Leading or disputing for much of the contest, he was still in contention turning into the straight but lost touch shortly afterwards. From a form perspective, this essentially matches his Exeter performance, and while he was superior to Peat Moss here, Bourbali is not progressing as much as could have been expected from his earlier outings. He has since been dropped to 101 which might become a generous mark, possibly over a sterner test. 95
Peat Moss 26/12/2020 Wincanton 1m7½f Handicap Hurdle (103)
Peat Moss ran in the first juvenile hurdle of the season, and posted his best performance when winning at Plumpton in September. He was making his seventh start over hurdles, and fourth in the handicap company where he was not disgraced last time at Doncaster over half a mile further. He jumped fine on that occasion, and while there was a slight regression as he veered left at the first and took off long at the fourth, this was not a poor round of hurdling. However, from a racing perspective, this was his worst showing since August as he never left the rear of the field and finished the race a thirty-five length twelfth of fourteen finishers. He was dropped to a mark of 99 which could be a fair mark over further and on a sounder surface. 81
LEOPARDSTOWN 27th December
Preview review
The front two were the correct two but in the wrong order, Ilmig's prospects were enhanced by the conditions, Dark Voyager, Flying Scotsman and Charlie Bassett were compromised by the rain, and Trezibond was given feasible prospects for a newcomer. The only concern regarding the preview is that French Aseel (who was a tissue 16/1) may have been given strong prospects were it not for withdrawals. On the one hand, a series of withdrawals might indicate a difficult in training and a diminished level of fitness. Conversely, it may also indicate that the trainer thinks a lot of the horse and would not allow it to compete until it was completely ready. A case repeated at Wetherby by Hacker Des Places. Otherwise, this was a satisfactory preview.
Race review
Previous renewals of this race have produced four Grade One juvenile wins, a further twelve Grade One places, and six wins in other graded contests since 2005. This year's edition lacked somewhat in depth, but the winner was a very impressive one and a few in behind could also be competitive in pattern company during the second half of the season. The pace was a solid one and apart from some chaos at the first two flights which resulted in a couple of unseats, there were no hard luck stories insofar as the protagonists were concerned. However, the winning time was 3.6 seconds slower than the hanicap hurdle, 4.6 seconds slower than the Grade One novice, and despite Zanahiyr's race the previous day being ran at a snail's pace with two additional hurdles to jump, it was still 2.2 seconds slower than that contest. Furthermore, it was also the slowest of all bar one of the previous ten renewals and while this might be indicitive of a lack of class, it more reveals that the ground was deeper than the soft, yielding in places suggests. The winner won the race with impetuous ease from a strung out field consisting of acceptably placed horses. Though it would be an exaggeration to describe it as top class form, there would be little reason to suggest it is anything but reliable and above average.
French Aseel won one of his nine starts in France for Philippe Decouz, but earned an equivalent mark of 82.4 and despite never racing beyond a mile, shaped as though a trip would suit. Heavy ground would also be beneficial and the skies opened nicely ahead of his delayed Irish debut. He had been entered in earlier races, and was withdrawn from an intended debut at Cork with a stone bruise. Nevertheless, he was well supported from double digit figures the previous day and started the race as 7/2 favourite. Tracking the leaders throughout, he was keen early and was still taking a grip towards the end of the back straight. His jumping was not impressive either as he was very big over the first, steadied and got in close to the second, was close again the fourth, big over the fifth and close again into what would be the last. He was left in front after leaving the back after the leader faded, and without so much as being shaken up, extended his advantage to twenty-two lengths on the line. For a performance so visually impressive, it is worth probing for negatives in order to gain perspective. Firstly, the winning time, however it is cut, is poor and while French Aseel won on the bridle, it is not guaranteed he would have found the several seconds needed to make it more respectable. Secondly, the way he travelled and jumped were not characteristic of a top class horse. And thirdly, he beat a hurdling newcomer, a horse who already needs four miles, a racecourse debutant, and a succession of horses who did not go in the ground. All of this notwithstanding, there is time for him to improve his jumping and travelling, the experience will do him good, and the form would still be in the top-five performances seen this season. While he still needs to prove himself against more substantial opposition, and on a sounder surface, French Aseel is still an exciting recruit to the division and will attract plenty of interest wherever he next appears. 137
Coltor only made his racecourse debut at the end of August, but was not disgraced on his first two outings at Navan, and won on his third start at Navan over eleven furlongs on soft ground. A rare juvenile hurdler for Dermot Weld, he is bred to flourish in the sphere being a son of Free Eagle, and a relative of Limini, Call My Guest and Vintage Crop. He was not unbacked in the market and started the race sixth in the betting at 6/1. Settling well early on, he was held up in the rear and still had some nine horses ahead of him leaving the back. He made headway down the side and would reach the front of the chasing group at the elbow. He had no chance of catching the runaway winner, but in his absence, would have been a comfortable six length winner himself. His round of jumping was one of the cleanest in the field, and the only discernible flaw was where he very slightly skewed and pecked on landing at the third. The distance by which he was beaten puts a dampener on the performance from a form perspective, and he may be seen to better effect with an even sterner stamina test in due course. Nevertheless, it was a very commendable debut effort on his first run for eighty-four days, and he has set a solid foundation for his new career. 112
Ilmig began his racing career in October but he already managed a win by his second outing and was a promising second on his hurdling debut at Punchestown the following month. He failed to justify odds-on favouritism at Fairyhouse a fortnight prior to this outing, but was sent off second favourite to make amends here. There has been little cause for complaint in his hurdling thus far and apart from steadying and getting close to the second, jumped well once again. Held up in midfield, he moved to within a length of the lead approaching the last. However, he lacked the acceleration to maintain his place and would need most of the long run-in to regain his lost positions. Ilmig is probably more consistent than appears on the surface as he does not run bad races. Rather, and despite having an American pedigree in which includes Breeder's Cup Filly And Mare Sprint winner Covfefe at 2/2, and champion sprinter Green Desert at 4/2, he has a distinct lack of pace. It is also worth noting that the yard's juveniles rarely do well this time of year, and the stable has not been in good form in any case which would also paint this performance in a more sympathetic light. Ilmig is certainly talented enough to win a race of his own, and could also be a productive sort beyond the juvenile division. 106
Trebizond initially cost Godolphin 300,000 guineas as a yearling, but this close relative of Palace Pier never ran on the flat and joined Henry de Bromhead for nearly a tenth of the original price in September. Unraced newcomers generally have a poor record in the sphere. Nevertheless, Golden Horn has made a solid start as a sire of juveniles, and with Rachael Blackmore on board, Trebizond was sent off third favourite at 5/1. He was fresh early without being worryingly keen, but he made a tremendous blunder at the first and skewed in mid air at the third. The remainder of his hurdlers were taken well enough and having initially been ridden conservatively, he stayed on at one pace on the run-in to reach his best position inside the final half-furlong. Though a long way behind the winner, he will have learned a lot from this experience and can improve sufficiently to be competitive in ordinary company. 103
Flying Scotsman landed a double at the Galway Festival, and ended his first stint on the flat with a mark of 87. However, he drifted from short prices on his first two outings and went from 7/2 to 11/2 in the ring ahead of this contest. His jumping has lacked assurance in the past and there was little discernible improvement third time out. He kicked his legs out at the first, steadied into the second, was slightly untidy over the fourth and fifth before steadying again into the last. Though he was certainly close enough going into the last, he was unable to find anything on the run-in and finished beaten by thirty-seven lengths. The first time application of a tongue tie was of no real assistance and the ground would have been unsuitable in any case. He has come nowhere near reaching his flat mark, but he could emerge as a well treated sort. Particular on dryer ground. 97
Charlie Bassett has now gone thirteen races without a win, but he is a consistent type as well as a reasonable jumper. Apart from not getting particularly high at the fourth, he put in another acceptable round and was disputing second place just before the elbow. However, if anything can be held against Charlie Basset, then it would be a lack of stamina and it was this deficiency which saw him fade quickly in the closing stages. He is capable of better but will need a much sharper test to be seen to better effect. 96
Ahaziah is rated just 37 on the flat, and though he improved between his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse and his latest effort at Cork, he still had plenty to find. He was big over the first at it was the same case here, but beyond that, he posted an adequate round of jumping. Initially tracking the leaders, he lost his position towards the end of the back. However, once he was absorbed by the pack, he did not really lose any further ground. While finishing seventh off 125/1 implies he outran his odds, this performance was no stronger than that of his second outing. He is a good stone off this sort of level, but is showing himself a fair type who can be competitive in moderate company. 95
Dark Voyager's second to Zanahiyr looks better with each performance by the former, and it was much the strongest hurdles form brought into this race. He was sent off at 11/10 to break his duck next time at Punchestown, but while he jumped well enough, he stopped quickly and was beaten twenty-two lengths. Some had retained faith in him as while he drifted from 11/4 in the morning, he still started as third third favourite. However, his jumping was not the cleanest it had been as he was steady into the second, close into the fourth, and he dived at the next. Although he was still in a clear second at the top of the straight, he faded quickly from thereon and was eventually beaten forty-one lengths. His stamina and resolve had been debatable going into this race and there was nothing here to alleviate those concerns. He may be rejuvenated by a speedier test or maybe a handicap mark, but his profile is also beginning to look precarious. 94
Iberia is the highest rated flat recruit seen to this point, having earned a triple digit rating when third in the Royal Lodge, and vindicating same in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on his return in June. Though beating just two home in the Irish Derby and finishing last in a listed race at this venue when last seen in July, even those performances were stronger than anything achieved by the opposition. His joining John Halley instead of Joseph O'Brien dampened his prospects, and he drifted from 15/2 in the morning to 20/1 at the start. Racing in the rear, he was slow at the third and was already getting reminders at that stage. Nevertheless, he still jumped respectably and was moving into contention with intent when getting badly baulked on landing at the last. This effectively put paid to his race and he made no more contribution beyond passing beaten horses. Taken at face value, this was a disappointing effort. However, he is the closest it gets to an unlucky horse in this particular contest as it is feasible he could have improved several places but for being badly impeded at a critical stage. 88
Next In Line won twice on the flat and earned a rating of 80 in the process. However, her breeding is not especially conducive to her new vocation and the trainer has no winners in the division. A quietly fancied outsider, she was hampered at the first, got in slightly close to the next and veered left at the fifth. Kept in mid-division, she never got into the body of the pack and would come home in her own time. Not a disgraceful introduction, not an encouraging one either. 80
Hisnameis Mrdevitt is another dual winner from the flat, but had not shown good form on his latest three starts and other than being a distant relative of Min, is not bred for the division either. He doubled in price from 40/1 in the morning, to 80/1 at the off, and his cause was not helped by getting baulked at the first. He then steadied into the next, got in close to the third and jumped left at the fifth. He managed to join the rear of the pack turning for home and kept up for about a furlong, but would fade in the closing stages. 83
Loved Out began as 5/4 favourite ahead of his hurdling debut at Punchestown, but it was by dint of the low quality in opposition. Had he been ridden more ambitiously, it is possible he may have won first time over hurdles. However, his defeat can more be attributed to his poor jumping and his round was little better here. Always in the rear, he was big and skewed over the first few obstacles before developing a habit of steadying into his flights. Though he kept on to some degree on the long run-in, he was still over twenty lengths behind the third at the line. He is capable of better and while he was subsequently beaten twenty-seven lengths back at Punchestown on new year's eve, he was very well backed to finish third of the sixteen finishers. 81
Pushover achieved nothing better than moderate form on the flat, and also had stamina concerns coming into the race. She started completely unfancied and never left the rear of the field before finishing tailed off. Save for jumping left at the first, her hurdling was fine, but there is little else to be drawn from this outing. 24
Royal Marksman's best effort from seven flat outings was a third off 45 at Dundalk over seven furlongs in October. His sire is not likely to make an impact in the sphere and the trainer has yet to saddle a winner in the division. Starting at 150/1, Royal Marksman led from the start and developed a lead for half a dozen lengths. He was very big over the first, also gave the second some air, and was very slow over the third which cost him his advantage. He regained some of his advantage along the back, and was still in front at the beginning of the home turn, but he was a tired horse by that stage and would weaken dramatically to finish hopelessly tailed off. 0
French Asset has the flat ability and the right trainer to do well in the sphere. However, he achieved very little on his hurdling debut, and managed even less in subsequent starts. Lacking fluency on his first two outings, he was also poor here as he veered left at the first, got in close to the third, and was slow over the fourth. 0
Complete Fiction is not unfeasibly bred for a hurdling career and has joined a solid trainer in the division. However, his flat form is no better than moderate and while he jumped the first two flights reasonably well, he was soon getting reminders whereafter his jumping deteriorated. He was getting detached before leaving the back and finished the race almost two-hundred lengths behind the winner. 0
Firstman won twice on the flat in France and while generally finishing nearer last than midfield in four runs for his new yard, was not running abhorrently in the context of this discipline. He was not fancied in the market, but received little luck in any case as he was badly hampered at the first before a loose horse separated Firstman from Peter Carberry at the second. Perversely, this was not an introduction without some promise however as he continued jumping with the rest of the field and while he steadied going into his other flights, the riderless Firstman still passed the post in third position. 0
Poetica's best flat effort for Mark Johnston was a fourth off 58 at Chelmsford, two races before joining the Shark Hanlon yard. Her debut at Cork can be ignored as her saddle slipped at the second and she unseated at the fifth. This effort can also be ignored as she was hampered and unseated at the first. 0
KEMPTON 27th December
Preview review
The strong prospect finished first, although it can not be said for certain if he would have gotten the best of feasible prospect Honneur d'Ajonc had the latter not capitulated at the last. Honneur d'Ajonc made a promising debut at Exeter and although he may have been better suited by the demands of Chepstow than of Kempton, the easing of conditions were in his favour. Her Indoors would finish second by virtue of her noted flat speed which offset her noted poor jumping. Siroco Jo was a disappointment, but he was backward on his French outing and a drift in the market foreshadowed his moderate jumping.
Race review
A race with a history of producing good juveniles, it has continued in this vein since becoming an introductory hurdle in 2016. The latest edition had every potential to be a useful affair and despite Siroco Jo disappointing, the winner and the final flight faller could be decent recruits. The front two approaching the last were clear of the remainder who were headed by benchmarks who while flawed and limited, also set a helpful standard.Despite a quicker early gallop, the winning time was over two seconds slower than that set in the concluding handicap hurdle. Although the ground will have dried through the day and being a Class 3 contest, the juveniles recorded a reasonable time for the division.
Heross Du Seuil came into the race as something of an unknown quantity as he was a comfortable winner of an ordinary AQPS flat race back in August. Nevertheless, he joined a leading yard which does well with his type, and is closely related to Defi du Seuil. Held up towards the rear, he settled well for a fresh and inexperienced horse, and while he was slow and steady at several of his flights, it was not enough to warrant strong trepidation and he also put in a few clean jumps along the way. Making headway to join the front rank turning for home, a steady approach to the penultimate flight cost him a length on the leader. He got to within half a length at the last and, with his rival's capitulation, was left unopposed on the run-in. It is difficult to speculate on whether he would have won had Honneur d'Ajonc stayed on his feet as while his opponent did get first run and Heross du Seuil was going through the gears, the former jumped the last quicker and while the latter was ridden out for much of the run-in, his stride was not lengthening and it took him nearly eighteen seconds to get from the last to the line. Nevertheless, it was still a highly promising introduction to hurdles and with fitness, experience and more fluent jumping, Heross du Seuil can develop into a useful sort. 125
Her Indoors had been destined to become a juvenile hurdler before she developed into a fairly useful sort on the flat, and her being thrown into Listed company on her jumps debut at Aintree was rewarded with an encouraging second. Four hurdles were omitted on that occasion which very probably helped her finish second instead of first as there was much to be desired from her jumping. While she was backed into favouritism, it was unlikely to be based on exceptional schooling reports as she was less than exemplary once again. After a big hop at the first, she steadied into and was close at the second, close again and the fourth and fifth, slow over the sixth, and steady and close over the penultimate flight. She used her flat speed to gain a place on the run-in at Aintree and did so once again here, gaining half-a-dozen lengths after the last to finish second by a half length. An improver on the flat, Her Indoors patently has the ability to win a race and progress beyond this level. However, it is essential that her hurdling improves beforehand. 108
Ambassador bookended his flat career for Richard Fahey with a pair of third placed finishes, and made a respectable start to his hurdling career at Warwick seventeen days earlier. Save for a couple of errors, he posting a decent enough round of jumping, and other than skewing at the first and getting the last wrong, was competent once again. Racing wide behind the leaders, he was on the premises turning in without being able to make a challenge and was weak in the concluding stages of the race. Nevertheless, it was an improved effort from a form perspective and while he is quite limited in his scope, the ability to win an ordinary contest is there. 115
Royaume Uni won on the flat in France for Andre Fabre and is bred to be a capable hurdler. He completely lacked fluency on his British debut at Sandown three weeks earlier, but while he was weak in the market beforehand, posted an improved round of jumping second time out. He was slightly baulked at the first and fifth, but apart from steadying at the fourth and being slow over two out, gave a honest hurdling display. Despite winning over 2900 meters on soft ground at Angers, he finished tired here and may show more when reaching a better standard of fitness. 103
Sarceaux won the second of her three starts for Mikael Delzangles, which came in a provincial race on good ground. While the trainer has already had a large priced winning juvenile this season, Sacreaux went into this race completely unfancied having missed her intended hurdling debut at Aintree on account of the ground. Setting off fairly prominently, she was untidy at the first two and steadied into the fifth and sixth before losing her position on the turn for home. This was not a debut without promise and while she may end up being no better on fair, there are moderate enough races on better ground in which she might be competitive in due course. 92
Alborkan had won two of his last three starts on the flat for Amy Murphy, and despite being purchased by Venetia Williams, has stayed in Newmarket for his hurdling career. While his flat rating of 75 alone is enough to warrant respect in this discipline, his tough attitude made him especially endearing. He went over the first two flights adequately, but his jumping deteriorated away from the stands as he steadied slightly into the third, got in close to the fourth, clipped the top of the fifth and got in especially close to three out where his stride was awkward in its aftermath. Nevertheless, he still moved well enough to briefly go into second on the turn for home, but had nothing else to give from thereon in and would fade in the straight. It is worth noting that while generally a consistent sort, his two worst efforts on the flat came after a break. Having returned here after a sixty-eight day lay-off and demonstrating ability and aptitude in certain stages of this race, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to build on this outing. 98
Sly Minx began her three-year-old campaign well enough with a seventh in a listed race, a second in a Beverley maiden and a win at Catterick in early July. However, she was well beaten on her final two starts for Mick Channon and poor jumping saw her hopelessly tailed off on her hurdling debut at Fontwell. Completely unfancied and keen early here, she was very untidy at the first, skewed badly at the third, went left at the fifth and got in too close to three out. Never leaving the rear, she ultimately finished tailed off. She reportedly lost her near-fore shoe. 29
Siroco Jo split a pair of reasonable types at Clairefontaine in August and would likely have won but for being so inexperienced. Representing a yard which has won this race with good sorts over the years, he started the day at 3/1 but was nearly double that price at the start. Though he settled nicely enough just behing the leaders, he was steady and close at the first two flights, got the fourth flight wrong, tried to jump the road after four out, and was steady again at three out. While still in contention entering the home turn, he was being hard ridden and quickly lost touch prior to pulling up before the penultimate flight. This was obviously a disappointing performance but he should not yet be written off. The first time out strike rate for the yard's French recruits is 34.18% for hurdlers and 24.00% for flat imports. However, while these are impressive figures, Siroco Jo's underperformance is not inherently exacerbated by the trainer's good record as the second time out rates increase to 37.1% and 44.44% respectively. Ex-French Paul Nicholls juveniles beaten first time amount to fifty-two, of which twenty-four won their next start in the division including Anniversary winner All Yours, Finale winner Quel Destin and Fred Winter winner Qualando as well as future talents such as Frodon, Saphir du Rheu and Brampour. This season alone, Viroflay and Hacker des Places are both flat recruits who obliged after disappointing first runs. However, it should also be noted that none of these redeemers were actually pulled up first time so while the statistics offer Siroco Jo some saving grace, he still has to account for his own actions. 0
Jalwan never raced beyond an extended nine furlongs on the flat and there is no indication on breeding that he will make a jumper. Though shorter in the market than stablemate Royaume Uni, Jalwan was still relatively unfancied ahead of his hurdles bow, and first run since August. Held up in the rear, he was untidy over the second and not much better at the third, and began to get detached on the stretch before the turn before pulling up after three out. He reportedly bled through the nose. 0
Warranty was a good winner of a Beverley maiden handicap on his final start for Mark Johnston, a race which worked out better than its description suggests. However, he jumped sloppily and without confidence first time at Wetherby and was beaten nineteen lengths. Running in first time blinkers here, he jumped the first flight well and brushed through the top of the second. That was the end of his examination as he was carried out at the bend shortly afterwards. While it is difficult to assess such a limited performance, the way he jumped the first was encouraging and it will be hoped that the drama does not curtail this improvement. 0
Cloud Thunder finished runner up on his final three flat outings, and was thrown into the deep end on his hurdling debut in Doncaster's Summit Hurdle. Keen in the early stages and was a novicey jumper, he finished that race tired and tailed off. These were calmer waters but his participation was short lived as he made a mess at the first, was better at the second, but chose to run out rather than have anything else to do with the hurdling business. He is not short on flat ability and seemed genuine enough in that sphere. However, his regard for his new profession is dubious. 0
Honneur d'Ajonc had not seen the racecourse prior to his Exeter bow in November, but he travelled well and apart from a few errors, jumped very acceptably before finishing second to Monmiral. His pedigree and style of racing suggested that he may have preferred conditions at Chepstow than here. Nevertheless, he was not short of supporters in the market and made a good impression second time out. Though he was keep early, he jumped quickly and tidily and went into the lead left by the drama at the first turn. This lead, while threatened up the straight by Heross du Seuill, was only relinquished at the last where though he took off well enough, he was unable to get his front feet out in time, consequently knuckling and going arse over tits. Fortunately, he appeared to get up happily enough and though his shins will likely be a bit sore, it will be hoped that his confidence will not be aversely affected. While Honneur d'Ajonc still has a fair amount to learn, he has quickly shown himself a horse with strong potential in terms of ability and aptitude. 125
WETHERBY 27th December
Preview review
The strong prospect was a very long way clear of the sole remaining reasonable prospect, and the sole remaining reasonable prospect was even further clear of the remainder. The task of Hacker Des Places was made considerably easier by the withdrawal of three competitive rivals, and the fact he could jump and go through the ground turned the contest into a formality. Caldwell did not appear to have any issues with the ground and the yard's record at the venue was noted, although so too was his conspicuous headcarriage which translated into a poor round of jumping. Sir Charles Punch lacked conviction in his jumping once again and Danger Money is still some way off showing his better form. Other than erroneously stating that Brian Ellison had two runners in the race due to a late night brain-fart, there is nothing really to revisit and address.
Race review
With the withdrawals of En Couleur, Herbiers and Kings Creek turned this into a one horse race. The going was heavy and there was driving rain throughout the race so conditions were especially demanding. Most of the field did not go through the ground and those who did jumped poorly. The pace was set by the winner and was sufficient to demolish his opponents. The winning time was just a second and a half slower than the earlier novice which is quite laudable given that the aforementioned was somewhat competitive and was not run a heavy shower. The field finished well strung out and in a feasible order, but in strict terms of pounds per length, the form would only really be of interest on the rare instances that they return to running on a ploughed field.
Hacker Des Places finished third to Paros on his debut before winning his own race at Dax in June. He was a well supported favourite on his UK debut at Wincanton, and did not run poorly behind his stablemate. However, in the context of his starting price of 4/9, that performance could only be viewed as a disappointment. He missed a couple of engagements prior to his return to the track, but the patience of the connections was rewarded with an emphatic success. He had been fresh on all three starts to date, which was particularly to his detriment at Wincanton, and was also prone to some sloppy jumping. While he was somewhat keen early on, he settled before too long and his hurdling prior to the straight was fine with his transgressions limited to jumping slightly to his right. He got in close to three out, and rapped the top of the last two, but he was still the best jumper in the race by a considerable margin. Leading throughout and taking the shortest route rather than searching for better ground, his main rival was within a length jumping the third last. That margin doubled without any stimulus from the rider by the penultimate flight, and after being shaken up on the approach to the, the gap extended to well over a dozen lengths and he was pushed out to finish with a superiority of a distance. In the review of Siroco Jo's performance, the record of Paul Nicholls horses who failed to win on their first starts was addressed in detail. Insofar as what happens in the third race of a stable's juvenile who won after a defeat is concerned, one overcorrection is met with another overcorrection as only two of the nineteen qualifiers sustain their redemption. Notwithstanding, the return to heavy ground saw Hacker des Places in a much more favourable light and while rating the performance of such an isolated winner is generally much of a muchness, it would be fair to say that he is not without talent and should continue his progress when facing these conditions. 124
Caldwell first saw the racecourse in late August and was placed on the first two of his three starts for Dermot Weld. The standard of form is perfectly respectable in the context of this discipline and while he was withdrawn on account of heavy ground at Listowel, he was not entirely unsuited by the conditions here. A more conspicuous misgiving from the flat was his peculiar headcarriage and this translated into a very sloppy round of jumping on his hurdles debut. He steadied into the first where he jumped big and to the left, was big and left at the second, steadied and got close to the third, was close and skewed over the fourth, close again into the fifth, clipped the top and stumbled on landing at the sixth (this was his best jump of the race), skewed and went left at the seventh and eighth and was big and skewed over the last. Tracking the leader throughout, he was taken the scenic route and was still in contention at the top of the straight. The futility of his task revealed itself as the race began to wrap up and rather sensibly, he was given nothing harsher than a hands and heels ride and was allowed to come home in his own time with almost fifty lengths in hand over his remaining opponents. Though he was beaten a distance, this was still a promising debut as in the absence of Hacker des Places, he would have been a very impressive winner in spite of the litany of jumping errors. His jumping absolutely needs to improve and he might also benefit from a date with a pair of scissors. Nevertheless, having his first run for over two months, he should be fitter for the experience and if it does not have the impact of draining him too much, he should be competitive in ordinary company. 86
Sir Charles Punch's Achilles heel on the flat was that while he had ability, his propensity to get worked up preventing him from exercising same. Over jumps, he has settled better but instead, has a complete lack of confidence over his hurdles. While the round also featured some untidiness, his penchant for steadying into his hurdles is proving costly and unless this is addressed then this now fifteen race maiden will continue to underachieve. 38
Danger Money finished his flat career for Andrew Oliver with a rating of 92 which is one of the highest seen in the division this season. However, his last two starts in Ireland were regressive and there was a suspicion that he was growing sour. Though not unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut, he showed no sign of a rejuvenation and his jumping left a lot to be desired as he lacked fluency and made several quite bad errors. Although bad jumps debuts from good flat horses can often be forgiven, Danger Money is making a habit of running poorly. 38
Spantik is a dual winner on the flat, including on his penultimate outing at Newcastle in early November where he took a ten furlong handicap off a deflated mark of 61. He skewed over the first, was somewhat big over the third, was slow over the seventh and went through the top off two out. Nevertheless, his round was not the worst on display and he settled better than he had done on the flat. He was still completely tailed off although it was reported that he lost his near-fore shoe. 28
Fahad jumped poorly but passed beaten horses on his hurdling debut at Catterick on good ground, then returned to the venue where he jumped marginally better but was well beaten on soft ground. Here in heavy ground, he jumped poorly and never left the rear. He also lost his near-fore shoe. 11
El Jefe was moderate on the flat, but his best effort came last time when second in a Redcar handicap off 51. That was his first outing after a wind operation, and eighty-five days later, he was very well backed to make a winning hurdles debut here. However, while he jumped well enough save for going left at the second and steadying at the fourth, he took a keen hold up from the start to the home straight where he faded to finish over a hundred lengths behind the winner. 9
Flight Command won a mile handicap off 53 on his final start in Ireland and Samuel Drinkwater's first juvenile hurdler is not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. However, without being bad, his jumping was untidy and he was dropped from a midfield position at the end of the straight whereafter he was pulled up. 0
Bachelors Hall
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I tend not to preview juveniles in non-juvenile races as a matter of course due partially to time constraints, partially to my accidently missing them, and largely because I have no idea what to make of the older horses. Nevertheless, there are a few interesting ones running tomorrow. Not interesting in the sense that they might be Triumph horses, but interesting nonetheless.
1.20 Plumpton 2m Handicap Hurdle
State Crown chg Evan Williams f3-0-2 (78) 79 j2-0-2 (116) 106 117
New Approach (Dubawi){10-a}(0.75) No jumps relatives
Since leaving Charlie Appleby for £24,000 at the Goffs UK September Sale, State Crown has finished runner-up twice in as many starts over hurdles. The form of his debut outing at Ludlow has worked out very well, with winner Talking About You following up in a pair of listed races, runner-up Naizagai filling the same position in handicaps at Sandown and Wetherby off 115, and the fourth placed Mr Shady finishing second next time at Wetherby. Next time at Newcastle, he finished second by a neck to Son Of Red who since ran with credit at Cheltenham. There is little cause for concern insofar as jumping is concerned and though he could learn to settle better, his resilience in battle is not in doubt. Plumpton is one of the easier courses in the country, and his in-form trainer has won three from sixteen with handicapping juveniles in the past five years. On known form, he is fairly treated and with improvement, his mark would be kind. A more pressing concern would be that he has yet to run on anything slower than good and while there are mixed messages in the pedigree, there is a lean towards better ground.
PROSPECTS: Reasonable
1.45 Fairyhouse 2m½f Handicap Hurdle
Crassus bg Noel Meade f10-0-3 (68) 76 j4-1-2 (119) 110 125
War Command (Seeking The Gold){4-m}(1.89) 0.5 Indian Chief PU Maiden Hurdle, Sedgefield 2019
It took Crassus thirteen races to get off the mark before winning at Limerick early last month. Prior to that, he finished second to Duffle Coat and Glorious Zoff, and was in the process of running a fine race against Zanahiyr at Bellewstown before falling. Though lacking confidence at Sligo following his fall, the clear round did him a world of good and he jumped as well as ever on his latest start over hurdles. The form of his Limerick race has worked out respectably as runner-up Palm Beach came very close to winning on Boxing Day, Zoffanien ran creditably in the same contest, and the well beaten fourth, Saga Malta, ran a similar race on new year's eve. There were concerns that Crassus did not respond well to the whip, and tomorrow's rider Lisa O'Neill has been more whip than hands in close wins in the past. Nevertheless, when Crassus was last seen in a Dundalk handicap, he closed well after a slow start without his rider making much use of the whip so it is assumed that these will be the instructions. On form, Crassus is fairly treated on his debut run, and well treated on his outings at Ballinrobe and Limerick. The conditions should present no concerns and in isolation from what the opponents might be able to produce, Crassus goes into the race with a nice profile.
PROSPECTS: Strong
Rock Chica bm Thomas Mullins f6-0-0 (36) 40 j4-1-0 (108) 104 105
Rock Of Gibraltar (Bahri){1-l}(1.86) 2/1 Chica Buena 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Aintree 2018
Though moderate on the flat, Rock Chica has done better over hurdles and she followed a career best fourth on her jumps bow at Punchestown with a bloodless win in a fillies' maiden at Tipperary in October. Only the first flight faller has been seen since, but she enjoyed the testing conditions and jumped well to win by twenty-six lengths. She has subsequently been outclassed in a winners' race at Punchestown where she jumped poorly, and in a Grade Three at this venue when flattered to finish close to Druid's Altar. The yard has not been in great form recently, and her even her best effort would not leave her kindly handicapped. Conditions ought to suit, but she will need to improved since last seen to challenge Crassus.
PROSPECTS: Feasible
2.02 Catterick 2m3½f Novices' Hurdle
Gold Desert chg Oliver Greenall f4-0-0 (71) 74 j4-2-2 (123) 115 124
Mastercraftsman (Galileo){9-f}(0.76) 3/1 Triple Sharp 1st Mares' Handicap Hurdle (81), Fakenham 2001
Though his hurdling debut at Sedgefield in September was a winning one, he needed almost every yard to win what was a moderate contest. He built on that performance when third in a better on his return to that venue the following month and doubled his tally on good ground here at Catterick a fortnight later, once again needing every yard. A step up in class followed and he acquitted himself well in the Grade Two Summit Hurdle at Doncaster. Jumping well except for when his concentration caused minor errors, he was no match for the promising Monmiral, but lost little credit in defeat as he still ran on well and was a long way clear of the remainder. The additional half mile here should come as a gift to Gold Desert and his yard had a 50/1 runner-up in a Musselburgh juvenile on Friday. His winner's penalties eat into most of his age allowance however and while Monticello is coming back after a long lay-off and Finisk River gives him the best part of a stone, Frimeur du Lancray ran well at Haydock on his first run since a wind operation and that form has worked out well. Gold Desert has proven himself a hardy battler and comes here with every chance, but if that is enough to offset the apparent class advantage of Frimeur du Lancray is a matter to be resolved at the track.
PROSPECTS: Very Reasonable
1.20 Plumpton 2m Handicap Hurdle
State Crown chg Evan Williams f3-0-2 (78) 79 j2-0-2 (116) 106 117
New Approach (Dubawi){10-a}(0.75) No jumps relatives
Since leaving Charlie Appleby for £24,000 at the Goffs UK September Sale, State Crown has finished runner-up twice in as many starts over hurdles. The form of his debut outing at Ludlow has worked out very well, with winner Talking About You following up in a pair of listed races, runner-up Naizagai filling the same position in handicaps at Sandown and Wetherby off 115, and the fourth placed Mr Shady finishing second next time at Wetherby. Next time at Newcastle, he finished second by a neck to Son Of Red who since ran with credit at Cheltenham. There is little cause for concern insofar as jumping is concerned and though he could learn to settle better, his resilience in battle is not in doubt. Plumpton is one of the easier courses in the country, and his in-form trainer has won three from sixteen with handicapping juveniles in the past five years. On known form, he is fairly treated and with improvement, his mark would be kind. A more pressing concern would be that he has yet to run on anything slower than good and while there are mixed messages in the pedigree, there is a lean towards better ground.
PROSPECTS: Reasonable
1.45 Fairyhouse 2m½f Handicap Hurdle
Crassus bg Noel Meade f10-0-3 (68) 76 j4-1-2 (119) 110 125
War Command (Seeking The Gold){4-m}(1.89) 0.5 Indian Chief PU Maiden Hurdle, Sedgefield 2019
It took Crassus thirteen races to get off the mark before winning at Limerick early last month. Prior to that, he finished second to Duffle Coat and Glorious Zoff, and was in the process of running a fine race against Zanahiyr at Bellewstown before falling. Though lacking confidence at Sligo following his fall, the clear round did him a world of good and he jumped as well as ever on his latest start over hurdles. The form of his Limerick race has worked out respectably as runner-up Palm Beach came very close to winning on Boxing Day, Zoffanien ran creditably in the same contest, and the well beaten fourth, Saga Malta, ran a similar race on new year's eve. There were concerns that Crassus did not respond well to the whip, and tomorrow's rider Lisa O'Neill has been more whip than hands in close wins in the past. Nevertheless, when Crassus was last seen in a Dundalk handicap, he closed well after a slow start without his rider making much use of the whip so it is assumed that these will be the instructions. On form, Crassus is fairly treated on his debut run, and well treated on his outings at Ballinrobe and Limerick. The conditions should present no concerns and in isolation from what the opponents might be able to produce, Crassus goes into the race with a nice profile.
PROSPECTS: Strong
Rock Chica bm Thomas Mullins f6-0-0 (36) 40 j4-1-0 (108) 104 105
Rock Of Gibraltar (Bahri){1-l}(1.86) 2/1 Chica Buena 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Aintree 2018
Though moderate on the flat, Rock Chica has done better over hurdles and she followed a career best fourth on her jumps bow at Punchestown with a bloodless win in a fillies' maiden at Tipperary in October. Only the first flight faller has been seen since, but she enjoyed the testing conditions and jumped well to win by twenty-six lengths. She has subsequently been outclassed in a winners' race at Punchestown where she jumped poorly, and in a Grade Three at this venue when flattered to finish close to Druid's Altar. The yard has not been in great form recently, and her even her best effort would not leave her kindly handicapped. Conditions ought to suit, but she will need to improved since last seen to challenge Crassus.
PROSPECTS: Feasible
2.02 Catterick 2m3½f Novices' Hurdle
Gold Desert chg Oliver Greenall f4-0-0 (71) 74 j4-2-2 (123) 115 124
Mastercraftsman (Galileo){9-f}(0.76) 3/1 Triple Sharp 1st Mares' Handicap Hurdle (81), Fakenham 2001
Though his hurdling debut at Sedgefield in September was a winning one, he needed almost every yard to win what was a moderate contest. He built on that performance when third in a better on his return to that venue the following month and doubled his tally on good ground here at Catterick a fortnight later, once again needing every yard. A step up in class followed and he acquitted himself well in the Grade Two Summit Hurdle at Doncaster. Jumping well except for when his concentration caused minor errors, he was no match for the promising Monmiral, but lost little credit in defeat as he still ran on well and was a long way clear of the remainder. The additional half mile here should come as a gift to Gold Desert and his yard had a 50/1 runner-up in a Musselburgh juvenile on Friday. His winner's penalties eat into most of his age allowance however and while Monticello is coming back after a long lay-off and Finisk River gives him the best part of a stone, Frimeur du Lancray ran well at Haydock on his first run since a wind operation and that form has worked out well. Gold Desert has proven himself a hardy battler and comes here with every chance, but if that is enough to offset the apparent class advantage of Frimeur du Lancray is a matter to be resolved at the track.
PROSPECTS: Very Reasonable
Bachelors Hall
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With no juveniles running tomorrow and few races scheduled for the coming week regardless of the cold snap, I have eased off a little and have just got the reviews up to the 29th for the time being.
Before I post them, a quick note on Crassus's race today at Fairyhouse. I will preface this by saying that I am generally very reticent about criticising the rides given by jockeys. Not only can it be mean spirited and unduly personal (which should never be anybody's intention), but making a good "wine glass" shape on a mechanical horse is the extent of my lived race riding experience. Nevertheless, in my amateur opinion, I thought the ride given to Crassus this afternoon was not good. She pulled him when he was very nicely settled up front and going a sensible gallop. She made no effort to turn the screws when there was still a lot of horse beneath her on the turn in. She rode him going into the final flight, but pulled him at the last moment even though he is an habitually sound and clever jumper whose leap at the last at Limerick sealed the race. Then, her actions in the finish consisted of pulling Crassus with one hand and whipping him with the other which was precisely what should not have been done with the particular horse. It is entirely possible that with the perfect ride, Crassus may have still been beaten by the plot horse. Nevertheless, were I the owner of Crassus, I would be asking Noel Meade for an explanation.
Now it will likely be a day or two before I review the performance properly and if anybody can point out where I am mistaken then I will gladly amend my perspective. I would much rather be correct than proud in my contributions, and I am not a fan of being critical of human beings when the error is fundamentally harmless in the grand scheme of things. I actually feel like a bit of a rotter now so to lighten the air a bit, here's a clip of a doggy watching a horse race.
https://i.imgur.com/Um6UnHW.gifv
Good Ball 29/12/2020 Newbury 2m½f Introductory Hurdle
Good Ball came into the race having finished second on his sole start in France where the front pair were clear from a subsequent large margin winner. Coming from the same race as the yard's Solo and Stratagem and through the same connections as Saphir du Rheu and Irish Saint, Good Ball was following exalted hoofsteps. He jumped big a couple of times during an otherwise fine debut performance, and apart from slightly steadying into the first, hurdled very well for his new yard and was not fazed when bumped in mid air at the penultimate flight. Though he is bred to excel at the minimum trip, Good Ball shaped very much as though he would be suited by further. Shadowing the leaders for much of the contest, he was badly outpaced and dropped to midfield passing the cross fence. He had six ahead of him jumping three out, four ahead of him at the penultimate flight, and still had half a dozen lengths to find after clearing the last. Nevertheless, he finally found the necessary gear to take the lead at the half-furlong marker and won comfortably going away. Measuring the form is not straightforward as the next four finishers were all unexposed, and all covered by two lengths. The winning time was half a second faster than the preceding handicap hurdle and the early pace was similar in both races. Given the manner of the success and some weight for age faffery, a mark in the mid 120s would not be absurd. Good Ball is a decent stamp of a horse who might be the type to do better with another year to his name. Nevertheless, although he took a while to get going, he did most things right for a newcomer and with the benefit of experience, there is no reason why he can not do useful things this campaign. 124
Asharann 29/12/2020 Doncaster 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (107)
On his hurdles form thus far, Asharann was not especially well treated before being three pounds wrong here. Nevertheless, he jumps reasonably well, would not be harshly treated on his best flat form and could feasibly improve to such a mark if learning to settle better. The early tempo here was so slow that a horse who refused to race at the start was able to make up twenty-odd lengths before the field went a furlong. While such courtesy is seen as good sportsmanship in professional cycling, it is a rarer occurrence when bikes are replaced by horses. Asharann was somewhat keen early, but was lit up when he saw an upcoming set of hurdles and was difficult to settle from there. He still jumped all four of his hurdles ok and while he never progressed beyond midfield, was still in contention at the distance. Asharann faded in the final furlong which will likely have been his early pulling taking its toll. This essentially matches his best hurdling form to date and once again, he has the capacity to improve if learning to settle. 100
Preview review
This one was quite disappointing. Taking Ronde De Nuit aside, the front three of the prospects list matches the race result. However, despite Progressive having all of the credentials that typically carry weight in the previews, a newly built formula showed that horses in general do better with experience at Doncaster and because of the recency bias, this stuck with me. That there were less hurdles jumped perhaps altered the impact of the course's configuration, but in any case, Progressive should not have been underestimated. Insofar as the reasoning behind Ronde De Nuit's prospects were concerned, they were mostly sound but while the Exeter debut was disappointing, this was just lamentable. Given the finishing positions and distances, nothing else was either under or overestimated.
Race review
A maiden hurdle restricted to fillies, this would not be an especially classy affair and traditionally, it has been some way off the standard juvenile ran at the venue. With the introduction of the listed race at the end of January, this maiden has more recently been used as a trial for that contest and this year's winner would not be out of place. Due to the low sun, only four hurdles were jumped which in itself, reduces the relevance as an examination of hurdling ability. Nevertheless, the winner has a solid profile, the runner-up showed her debut at Leicester was not a fluke, and this pair were clear of the rest. The strength of the form lacks real substance at this juncture, but the winner should progress.
Progressive, a daughter of Nathaniel, was a progressive winner on the flat for Roger Varian, and has joined a top yard for her new vocation. She was fresh in the early stages of her first outing for over eighty days, but was suitably settled in midfield after a couple of jumps. She hurdled well over the first and the third where she was ridden into the approach, whereas she slightly skewed over the second and got close into the fourth when steady on the approach. She began her pursuit five lengths in arrears of the leader who got first run at the top of the straight, but was not hard pressed to steadily eat into that gap and would head her rival just before the furlong pole before being ridden out for a comfortable two and a quarter length success. The bare form is not worth a great deal at this juncture, but she has shown she can travel and jump well while having scope for plenty of improvement for the experience. There is a gap to be bridged before she matches the likes of Hiconic, Talking About You and Fiveandtwenty, but she would be receiving weight from all of those should they meet at the venue and Progressive would be well worth a place in that company. 107
Gilbertina achieved nothing in two starts on the flat prior to her hurdling debut at Leicester where she belied odds of 200/1 to finish third. There she overcame novicey jumping in the early stages before settling into a decent rhythm and while she was beaten eighteen lengths in the end, she maintained her position relative to the remainder. Taking the initiative from flagfall, Gilbertina jumped the first two correctly but steadied and skewed over the third while stumbling after the fourth. She still held the lead turning for home and got first run over her rivals. Though caught and held by her superior rival, she finished twenty-two lengths clear of the remainder. An unexposed horse who confirmed and surpassed her Leicester performance, Gilbertina should remain competitive in ordinary contest and has the capacity for further progression. 105
Licit was backed from 7/1 in the morning to 10/3 ahead of her hurdling debut, a move which replicated that for her stablemate Kentucky Hardboot's debut at Kempton. While the yard is not noted for its jumpers, it has sent out two placed juvenile hurdlers from as many horses this season. A winner of a soft ground handicap at Haydock in September, Licit is feasibly bred for her new career and the services of Bryony Frost were employed. Her jumping left plenty to be desired as she essentially got too close to and hopped over all four of her hurdles. Still in last position on the approach to the final flight, she tracked the winner's move along the final turn. While she was soon left in her wake, she was able to put a sizable margin between herself and the remnants of the race. Licit was not disgraced on her debut, but her hurdling needs a lot of work and the bare form is not outstanding. 83
Breadcrumbs had been well beaten in two bumpers and was sent off rank outsider here. Always towards the rear, she jumped the first two adequately, but steadied into and got too close to the final two with her last jump causing her to get detached. She was able to pluck off beaten horses one by one, and would take a remote fourth in the concluding furlong. Breadcrumbs was not given too hard a time of things, and may do better with a trip. However, there is no cause for immediate enthusiasm. 74
Kimberley ran creditably without winning in six runs for James Fanshawe, albeit her latest two starts for that yard were below par. Following a 10,500 guineas sale, she joined a Oliver Greenall yard which can do well with juveniles, although sire Oasis Dream does not have a strong record in the division. Chasing the leader from the start, she got in close to all of her hurdles and was involved in a barging match along the stretch away from the stands. Though still in second when entering the straight, she weakened thereafter and was ultimately beaten by fifty-five lengths. Along with still being green, Kimberley's jumping was not up to scratch and her lack of stamina was conspicuous. She may be entitled to improve on her return after three and a half months off the track, and the yard's runners do improve with experience. However, she has plenty to prove at this juncture. 52
Call Me Sainte is bred to make a juvenile hurdler, but she made an inauspicious debut in an Exeter bumper seventy days earlier. Subsequent wind surgery and the application of a hood did nothing for her performance as she pulled hard early, went through the top of the first and hopped over the remaining three while steadying and getting too close. 48
Hunter's Dawn brought the best bumper form to the race, but the sum of which was no better than moderate and she ran out when competing at this venue in late November. A subsequent flat outing at Southwell saw her tail off and she was very keen here. The other participant in the barging match, this battle hindered her early jumping and was exacerbated by her keenness. She was the first of those racing prominently to be beaten and was beaten nearly eighty lengths. 29
Ronde De Nuit ran with promise on her sole flat outing at Angers, and though she was beaten over fifteen lengths on her hurdles debut at Exeter in November, she shaped with enough promise to justify being sent off the second favourite here. However, while she was always in a good position and jumped well save for clipping the second and getting distracted at the last, she finished extremely weakly. The trainer's rep suggested she was unsuited by the going and given that she raced on the inside throughout, and that Doctor Dino's progeny act on good ground, there may be merit to this theory. Nevertheless, Ronde De Nuit's constitution is not appealing and she will need to prove herself in this regard before she can rekindle her reputation. 23
Flippance opened in the morning at 16/1 but this was by sheer virtue of her trainer as her flat form is poor and she has already undergone a wind operation. Though baulked on landing at the first, her jumping was poor nevertheless and after pulling hard in the early phases, was dropped from her midfield position after the last and finished hopelessly tailed off. 0
Before I post them, a quick note on Crassus's race today at Fairyhouse. I will preface this by saying that I am generally very reticent about criticising the rides given by jockeys. Not only can it be mean spirited and unduly personal (which should never be anybody's intention), but making a good "wine glass" shape on a mechanical horse is the extent of my lived race riding experience. Nevertheless, in my amateur opinion, I thought the ride given to Crassus this afternoon was not good. She pulled him when he was very nicely settled up front and going a sensible gallop. She made no effort to turn the screws when there was still a lot of horse beneath her on the turn in. She rode him going into the final flight, but pulled him at the last moment even though he is an habitually sound and clever jumper whose leap at the last at Limerick sealed the race. Then, her actions in the finish consisted of pulling Crassus with one hand and whipping him with the other which was precisely what should not have been done with the particular horse. It is entirely possible that with the perfect ride, Crassus may have still been beaten by the plot horse. Nevertheless, were I the owner of Crassus, I would be asking Noel Meade for an explanation.
Now it will likely be a day or two before I review the performance properly and if anybody can point out where I am mistaken then I will gladly amend my perspective. I would much rather be correct than proud in my contributions, and I am not a fan of being critical of human beings when the error is fundamentally harmless in the grand scheme of things. I actually feel like a bit of a rotter now so to lighten the air a bit, here's a clip of a doggy watching a horse race.
https://i.imgur.com/Um6UnHW.gifv
Good Ball 29/12/2020 Newbury 2m½f Introductory Hurdle
Good Ball came into the race having finished second on his sole start in France where the front pair were clear from a subsequent large margin winner. Coming from the same race as the yard's Solo and Stratagem and through the same connections as Saphir du Rheu and Irish Saint, Good Ball was following exalted hoofsteps. He jumped big a couple of times during an otherwise fine debut performance, and apart from slightly steadying into the first, hurdled very well for his new yard and was not fazed when bumped in mid air at the penultimate flight. Though he is bred to excel at the minimum trip, Good Ball shaped very much as though he would be suited by further. Shadowing the leaders for much of the contest, he was badly outpaced and dropped to midfield passing the cross fence. He had six ahead of him jumping three out, four ahead of him at the penultimate flight, and still had half a dozen lengths to find after clearing the last. Nevertheless, he finally found the necessary gear to take the lead at the half-furlong marker and won comfortably going away. Measuring the form is not straightforward as the next four finishers were all unexposed, and all covered by two lengths. The winning time was half a second faster than the preceding handicap hurdle and the early pace was similar in both races. Given the manner of the success and some weight for age faffery, a mark in the mid 120s would not be absurd. Good Ball is a decent stamp of a horse who might be the type to do better with another year to his name. Nevertheless, although he took a while to get going, he did most things right for a newcomer and with the benefit of experience, there is no reason why he can not do useful things this campaign. 124
Asharann 29/12/2020 Doncaster 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (107)
On his hurdles form thus far, Asharann was not especially well treated before being three pounds wrong here. Nevertheless, he jumps reasonably well, would not be harshly treated on his best flat form and could feasibly improve to such a mark if learning to settle better. The early tempo here was so slow that a horse who refused to race at the start was able to make up twenty-odd lengths before the field went a furlong. While such courtesy is seen as good sportsmanship in professional cycling, it is a rarer occurrence when bikes are replaced by horses. Asharann was somewhat keen early, but was lit up when he saw an upcoming set of hurdles and was difficult to settle from there. He still jumped all four of his hurdles ok and while he never progressed beyond midfield, was still in contention at the distance. Asharann faded in the final furlong which will likely have been his early pulling taking its toll. This essentially matches his best hurdling form to date and once again, he has the capacity to improve if learning to settle. 100
Preview review
This one was quite disappointing. Taking Ronde De Nuit aside, the front three of the prospects list matches the race result. However, despite Progressive having all of the credentials that typically carry weight in the previews, a newly built formula showed that horses in general do better with experience at Doncaster and because of the recency bias, this stuck with me. That there were less hurdles jumped perhaps altered the impact of the course's configuration, but in any case, Progressive should not have been underestimated. Insofar as the reasoning behind Ronde De Nuit's prospects were concerned, they were mostly sound but while the Exeter debut was disappointing, this was just lamentable. Given the finishing positions and distances, nothing else was either under or overestimated.
Race review
A maiden hurdle restricted to fillies, this would not be an especially classy affair and traditionally, it has been some way off the standard juvenile ran at the venue. With the introduction of the listed race at the end of January, this maiden has more recently been used as a trial for that contest and this year's winner would not be out of place. Due to the low sun, only four hurdles were jumped which in itself, reduces the relevance as an examination of hurdling ability. Nevertheless, the winner has a solid profile, the runner-up showed her debut at Leicester was not a fluke, and this pair were clear of the rest. The strength of the form lacks real substance at this juncture, but the winner should progress.
Progressive, a daughter of Nathaniel, was a progressive winner on the flat for Roger Varian, and has joined a top yard for her new vocation. She was fresh in the early stages of her first outing for over eighty days, but was suitably settled in midfield after a couple of jumps. She hurdled well over the first and the third where she was ridden into the approach, whereas she slightly skewed over the second and got close into the fourth when steady on the approach. She began her pursuit five lengths in arrears of the leader who got first run at the top of the straight, but was not hard pressed to steadily eat into that gap and would head her rival just before the furlong pole before being ridden out for a comfortable two and a quarter length success. The bare form is not worth a great deal at this juncture, but she has shown she can travel and jump well while having scope for plenty of improvement for the experience. There is a gap to be bridged before she matches the likes of Hiconic, Talking About You and Fiveandtwenty, but she would be receiving weight from all of those should they meet at the venue and Progressive would be well worth a place in that company. 107
Gilbertina achieved nothing in two starts on the flat prior to her hurdling debut at Leicester where she belied odds of 200/1 to finish third. There she overcame novicey jumping in the early stages before settling into a decent rhythm and while she was beaten eighteen lengths in the end, she maintained her position relative to the remainder. Taking the initiative from flagfall, Gilbertina jumped the first two correctly but steadied and skewed over the third while stumbling after the fourth. She still held the lead turning for home and got first run over her rivals. Though caught and held by her superior rival, she finished twenty-two lengths clear of the remainder. An unexposed horse who confirmed and surpassed her Leicester performance, Gilbertina should remain competitive in ordinary contest and has the capacity for further progression. 105
Licit was backed from 7/1 in the morning to 10/3 ahead of her hurdling debut, a move which replicated that for her stablemate Kentucky Hardboot's debut at Kempton. While the yard is not noted for its jumpers, it has sent out two placed juvenile hurdlers from as many horses this season. A winner of a soft ground handicap at Haydock in September, Licit is feasibly bred for her new career and the services of Bryony Frost were employed. Her jumping left plenty to be desired as she essentially got too close to and hopped over all four of her hurdles. Still in last position on the approach to the final flight, she tracked the winner's move along the final turn. While she was soon left in her wake, she was able to put a sizable margin between herself and the remnants of the race. Licit was not disgraced on her debut, but her hurdling needs a lot of work and the bare form is not outstanding. 83
Breadcrumbs had been well beaten in two bumpers and was sent off rank outsider here. Always towards the rear, she jumped the first two adequately, but steadied into and got too close to the final two with her last jump causing her to get detached. She was able to pluck off beaten horses one by one, and would take a remote fourth in the concluding furlong. Breadcrumbs was not given too hard a time of things, and may do better with a trip. However, there is no cause for immediate enthusiasm. 74
Kimberley ran creditably without winning in six runs for James Fanshawe, albeit her latest two starts for that yard were below par. Following a 10,500 guineas sale, she joined a Oliver Greenall yard which can do well with juveniles, although sire Oasis Dream does not have a strong record in the division. Chasing the leader from the start, she got in close to all of her hurdles and was involved in a barging match along the stretch away from the stands. Though still in second when entering the straight, she weakened thereafter and was ultimately beaten by fifty-five lengths. Along with still being green, Kimberley's jumping was not up to scratch and her lack of stamina was conspicuous. She may be entitled to improve on her return after three and a half months off the track, and the yard's runners do improve with experience. However, she has plenty to prove at this juncture. 52
Call Me Sainte is bred to make a juvenile hurdler, but she made an inauspicious debut in an Exeter bumper seventy days earlier. Subsequent wind surgery and the application of a hood did nothing for her performance as she pulled hard early, went through the top of the first and hopped over the remaining three while steadying and getting too close. 48
Hunter's Dawn brought the best bumper form to the race, but the sum of which was no better than moderate and she ran out when competing at this venue in late November. A subsequent flat outing at Southwell saw her tail off and she was very keen here. The other participant in the barging match, this battle hindered her early jumping and was exacerbated by her keenness. She was the first of those racing prominently to be beaten and was beaten nearly eighty lengths. 29
Ronde De Nuit ran with promise on her sole flat outing at Angers, and though she was beaten over fifteen lengths on her hurdles debut at Exeter in November, she shaped with enough promise to justify being sent off the second favourite here. However, while she was always in a good position and jumped well save for clipping the second and getting distracted at the last, she finished extremely weakly. The trainer's rep suggested she was unsuited by the going and given that she raced on the inside throughout, and that Doctor Dino's progeny act on good ground, there may be merit to this theory. Nevertheless, Ronde De Nuit's constitution is not appealing and she will need to prove herself in this regard before she can rekindle her reputation. 23
Flippance opened in the morning at 16/1 but this was by sheer virtue of her trainer as her flat form is poor and she has already undergone a wind operation. Though baulked on landing at the first, her jumping was poor nevertheless and after pulling hard in the early phases, was dropped from her midfield position after the last and finished hopelessly tailed off. 0
granger
Senior Jockey
They nicely filled the gap left by Wylie and to a lesser extent Ricci
Bachelors Hall
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With this batch, we are now up to date with the reviews. Hurrah! Juveniles I'm Easy, Monash and Wightman as set to contest "jumpers bumpers" tomorrow. However, as my concerns with the division are based on hurdlers, these outings will likely receive little attention outside of future previews.
TAUNTON 30th December
Preview review
Could have been worse. Flying Tiger drifted before his racecourse debut and reportedly made a noise but without Can't Stop Now falling at the last, the prospects list and finishing order would not have been too distorted. Strong prospect Volkovka was the cleanest jumper of the race, went down by a narrow margin and may well have won had her rival not found the rail. Wightman had feasible prospects and his imperfect jumping was once again prevalent, but slightly diluted since his debut and the noted sharper test was very much to his advantage. Can't Stop Now was in the process of running a fine race, but the free running sort was still prone to making errors and with the Taunton not being as sharp as Fakenham, the moderately higher demands proved telling. Iron Heart received plenty of market support, but was once again let down by his jumping.
Race review
This did not look a bad contest beforehand, but by the same token, it was not especially strong either. The principles had every reason to finish as they did and the distances were very reasonable.. Nevertheless, while the race was run at a solid pace, it was still some three and a half seconds slower than the race won by Talking About You later on the card. Nevertheless, the tempo was sufficient to thin the field out before too long, and those that remained were a class ahead of the outsiders. The form looks reliable enough, but since the principles are not obvious penalty defiers, the contest overall has about it a "division three" quality.
Wightman won one from twelve on the flat and his latest official rating of 69 is just above average for the division. Staying with Mick Channon for a hurdling career, he ran with some promise at Newbury where he was an eighteen length sixth in a better race. His jumping was not catastrophic, but he did have a tendency to land steeply which re-emerged to a lesser degree here. He also rather failed to see out the trip, but this sharp circuit will likely have been the upper end of his limits. Along with being steep over the second and the seventh, Wightman skewed at the first, was slow over the third, close at the fourth and stumbled slightly at the seventh. Again, none of these errors were catastrophic, and after being prominent in the pursuit of the clear leader for much of the contest, had bridged the gap at the turn for home and jumped the last in a marginal lead. The battle with Volkovka along the entirety of the run-in was tight and well contested throughout. He briefly played second fiddle, but his drifting to the rails proved advantageous as he regained the lead at the line to score by a head. This was good improvement on his Newbury bow, and it brings Wightman closer to the best of his flat form which came over a mile. Life will be more difficult under a penalty and though there is scope for improvement in the jumping department, he will probably need another test as sharp as this in order to perform. 106
Volkovka had shown fair form on the flat in France and despite being bought out of a claimer, her flat ability is above average for the sphere. She flopped badly on her British debut at Fakenham and was in the process of running only a fair race when blundering badly next time at Leicester. She got off the mark at Market Rasen just over a fortnight later thanks to moderate opposition and her best round of jumping to date. Apart from minor imperfections at the fourth and seventh, she posted another decent display of hurdling and traded as low as 1.1 in-running to double her hurdles tally. Initially held up towards the rear of midfield, she moved comfortably through a field that struggled to live with the pace. Reaching the front alongside the winner at the final flight, she plugged on gamely and was only denied by Wightman's discovery of the rail. This marks a hurdles best to the tune of roughly half a stone, and there may be further to come if stepped up in trip. 105
Iron Heart's three strongest performances on the flat for Andrew Balding came when 'firm' appeared in the going description. His first two jumps appearances were marked by reticent hurdling, although he also picked up minor injuries during those outings which might have accounted for same. He built on his Wincanton form when last seen at Newbury where he finished five lengths ahead of Wightman, and was backed into favouritism to get off the mark here. There was less apprehension in his hurdling here, but it was not an error free round as was somewhat untidy at the first, got close into the second and sixth and was steady approaching the fourth. He was never far off the leaders but simultaneously, never got to within a threatening position and was left in third after the last. Though many juveniles from the yard find their footing when switched to handicaps, the market support beforehand suggested that improvement may have been forthcoming here. Were it the case that Iron Heart had become more assured at his jumping then the confidence was partially vindicated. However, his jumping remains far from polished and he has yet to show himself proficient on softer ground. His fresh rating of 107 is not especially harsh based on his hurdles form and could be quite viable on his flat form, especially on a sounder surface. 95
Shutupshirley has a stout pedigree for a juvenile hurdler and in the two runs since his racecourse debut in October, he has found himself decidedly outpaced. Always in the rear, he was unable to live with the early tempo on this sharp circuit and finished a never nearer eighteen length fourth after passing beaten rivals. His jumping was fine as per usual and the trainer afterwards reported a respiratory noise. Though his mark of 101 does not reflect his hitherto achievements, it is not unreasonable to assume that a step up in trip and a breathing operation should foment improvement. 87
Theocrat made a fair hurdling introduction at Ludlow in early October when less than four lengths fourth to Orchestral Rain, but pulled too hard for his own good when returning to Shropshire the following month. He pulled again in the early stages here but had settled better after around three furlongs. Though slightly untidy at a few of his hurdles and putting in a tired leap two out, his jumping is essentially passable for the sphere. While this was a step up on his last outing, it was still a long way from his debut performance and unless he is able to replicate same, his mark of 100 will be difficult to reach. 70
Masterdream cost 56,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, but his flat form with John Oxx did not particularly warrant such a price and his two subsequent hurdles outings have been disappointing. He had lacked fluency and confidence at most hurdles at Sandown, but in fairness, he was only steady at a couple here and was generally quite tidy. He was also impeded slightly at the first and at two out, but was never in a position to challenge in any case. Masterdream bettered his Sandown performance, but he still needs to show considerably more before he can be competitive. 68
Can't Stop Now rather defied expectations when third on his hurdles debut at Kempton, and though he essentially refused to race next time at Ludlow, he was successful at Fakenham at the end of November. Despite running freely and jumping poorly, his free-running style enabled him to run out a rather decisive winner. He employed the same tactics here and despite wandering at the first. putting in a long leap at the third, going through the top of the fourth and getting close to the next two, he was only caught at the last. There, he failed to take off in time and took a tumbling fall. Though he held a commanding lead for most of the contest, he never traded odds-on in-running and was probably a spent force by the last flight. Thankfully he got up from his fall and he can post similar performances at this kind of level provided it is as a sharp track. While he might benefit from settling better, it appears that his potency lies in his immoderate style. Though he has subsequently been dropped two pounds to 122, this mark is still a good stone off his flat or jumps ability. 103
Numberoneson had won off 79 on his final start for Joseph O'Brien in July, but was most disappointing on his first two starts over hurdles at Ludlow and Wetherby. His hurdling and travelling had been poor on each occasion, but running in first time blinkers, he tracked the leader for most of the contest and was still in second jumping the third last. He weakened quickly thereafter and was pulled up on entering the straight. While it is difficult to draw positives from such a performance, apart from steadying at the fourth and fifth, he jumped better than usual as well as travelling prominently for longer. Notwithstanding, while this perhaps betters his debut run despite pulling up, there is still clearly something missing and Numberoneson continues to have plenty to prove. 0
Zellerate managed to finish runner-up last time at Fontwell, but he was almost fifty lengths behind the winner and those placed behind him ran abysmally. Otherwise, his career consists of tailing off in a bumper and now two pulled-ups. Never nearer than midfield, he was slightly baulked at a couple of hurdles, but still steadied into a few himself while jumping untidily at times. His rating of 83 is a low one, but it still flatters him on what he has achieved thus far. 0
Presgrave is another former inmate of Joseph O'Brien's and while he did not win on the flat, his form in that sphere was at least average. He had been tried in all manner of headgear however and though he travelled easily enough, there was a discernible lack of fluency. He began the race in a prominent position, but was already losing ground entering the back straight and was pulled up before the turn for home. 0
Impetuous finished her flat career with a rating of just 35 and was completely unfancied ahead of her hurdles bow. She was steady, big and untidy over her first few jumps and while she was marginally better at the fourth, she was already ridden and detached by that stage. She got in close to the next and was pulled up afterwards. 0
Fighting Tiger is a half-brother to Flying Tiger who won the Fred Winter for the yard in 2017. Making his racecourse debut, he had already gone a wind operation and was a drifter in the market beforehand. He was untidy over his hurdles and pulled up before the sixth, reportedly having made a respiratory noise. 0
Siempre Rapido has a flat rating of 70, but carried stamina doubts into this contest and was not fancied in the market. Though he hopped slightly over the first, he jumped his next four reasonably well. However, he weakened quickly and was pulled up before the next having also made a noise. 0
Talking About You 30/12/2020 Taunton 2m½f Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed)
The transformation Talking About You has undergone since her jumps debut in early August has been little short of remarkable. While the began her hurdling career as an outlandishly temperamental sort, she was able to win on her third start at Fontwell before appearing to revert to form in her next couple of races. Returning after a wind operation and short break, she ran creditably at Fakenham before taking a large leap forward at Ludlow with a fine hurdling display resulting in a decisive victory. While her jumping was not as sound at Aintree, she gained her first black type and would double her pattern tally here. Disputing the lead for most of the contest, her jumping was once again lacking as she steadied into half of her hurdles as well as getting in close to a couple in a rather alarming fashion. Turning into the straight with a length advantage, she was very untidy and slow to get away from the last. Nevertheless, she was ridden out under a moderate drive to cross the line with a definitive two and a quarter length lead. While this marked a second listed win, the form should not really be overstated as even though the third was rated 140, she is flagrantly better on good ground. Nevertheless, she has reaffirmed her abilities against older horses and should remain a force to be reckoned with against her own sex in the division. Although talks of Cheltenham were dismissed by connections, Aintree has been a stated option. While she would be some way off the best colts in the division, particularly if the Irish contingent will be allowed to compete, a race like Doncaster's fillies' race later in the month could be a good target as she need only carry a five pound penalty. 124
Marta Des Mottes 30/12/2020 Taunton 2m½f Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed)
Finishing well beaten on the flat in February, Marta Des Mottes was an 18/1 winner of an Angers claimer on her hurdling debut in May. After finishing an eleven length fourth in a better race at Clairefontaine, she won a good ground conditions event at La Teste De Buch in July, conceding upwards of five kilos from her strung out rivals. The form of neither of her wins has any real value, but her hurdling improved between these outings with neater jumps outnumbering those lacking fluency. Tom Symonds has done well with a small number of French hurdling recruits in the division, but Marta Des Mottes has only one behind her in the betting ahead of her British debut. Keen early while tracking the leaders, she was no worse than untidy with her worst error coming at the fifth where she was steady and skewed in the air. However, she was the first to come off the bridle in the back straight and would soon lose touch before finishing over thirty-five lengths last of five. There is little reason to suspect that this was her true showing as it was her first run in over five months and though she won a claimer on soft ground, she may be happier on a sounder surface. 84
PUNCHESTOWN 31st December
Preview review
With Zanavi jumping poorly and Persia being withdrawn due to a bereavement, Riviere d'Etel's task was a simple one. Though she was keen in the early stages, it was not to the detriment of her performance and she ran out a very cosy winner. Zanavi's trainer has a 100% clear round record with his first time juveniles so his poor round could not really have been foreseen. He was badly baulked at the first which may have affected his confidence. The next four to finish had moderate and negligible prospects so in this regard, they were all underestimated by the preview and, barring Loved Out, the market. Coventry has a strong flat pedigree and just two runs to his name, was less exposed than most Ballydoyle cast-offs. Loved Out was well beaten four days earlier, but there was promise on his debut at this venue and though the record of his yard's juveniles returning quickly was poor, it was noted that the one placed horse was also the shortest priced and Loved Out started the race at a fifth of his morning price. Roma Delight had shown pace when free-running on previous outings, and a better round of jumping enabled her to stay in contention for longer. Saeer was given moderate prospects, but finished seventeen lengths behind Roma Delight in any case. Given that those who underperformed had only feasible prospects, the only real take aways would be to be more mindful of unexposed horses with potential, and those with experience of front running.
Race review
Following the withdrawal of Persia and the underperformance of Zanavi, Riviere d'Etel had not a great deal to beat. But though she was not always the tidiest, she was undeniably convincing. The winning time was over sixteen seconds quicker than the later handicap and while that was a moderate race and the ground may have been extremely testing at that point, Riviere d'Etel's time is still half a second per furlong superior to those posted in the other races against the standard. This is all the more noteworthy as the race was run through a veritable blizzard with moderate visibility. The overall standard of jumping could have been cleaner, but in fairness, these youngsters did quite well given the conditions. The winner was a different class, but the despite the long prices, those who finished behind had feasible reasons to do so and were very well strung out. Since the circumstances were quite exceptional, the form may not translate beyond its environment. Nevertheless, with the possible exception of Zanavi's confidence being shot at the first, there is little reason to not take the form at face value.
Riviere d'Etel finished second in the pouliches version of the Prix Finot on her sole hurdles run where the front pair finished a long way clear, and the winning time was a good one. She had been quite wayward on that occasion which was also reflected in her jumping. Some of those tendencies were still apparent here, but running in a first time hood, she was still keen without being alarmingly headstrong and her jumping was never much worse than untidy. Tracking the leaders in the opening stages, she took the lead on turning away from the stands and after being shaken up briefly before the home turn, quickly established a commanding lead. Despite an untidy jump at the last, she was not asked to pick up and passed the post an easy twelve length winner. Though this was not a polished performance, it was still one of considerable potential and by far the strongest seen by any filly this season. She clearly handles testing conditions very well and while it remains to be seen if she can be versatile on better ground, her pedigree suggests that it is not beyond the realm of possibility. Although she could develop into Triumph class, the yard already has an embarrassment of riches in the division and the current favourite is in the same ownership. As such, the mares' novice might be a more feasible target should Irish horses be allowed to compete at the festival. 131
Coventry is by Galileo and out of an Irish Oaks winning daughter of an Irish Oaks runner-up. He began his career at Ballydoyle, but failed to reach the first ten in a pair of Curragh maidens either side of early 2020. Prior to Coventry's run, John Halley saddled seventeen juveniles since 2008/09 with all of them formerly trained by Aiden O'Brien, and only Foreign Secretary winning a five runner Limerick contest in March 2019. Drifting from 22/1 to 50/1 in the ring, Coventry was at the head of the chasing group and moved into a prominent position towards the end of the back. Though his pursuit of the winner was a hopeless task, he was able to forge clear of the remainder over which he held a fifteen length advantage at the line. There is work to be done on his jumping as he was close at the first and fifth, slow over the second, steady and untidy at two and and somewhat careful over the last. This is the strongest debut performance from a John Halley trained juvenile during the past decade and it remains to be seen how long Coventry stays with his current handler as those who show promise, such as Ballyglasheen, Enchanted Forest and Great Trango, are usually moved along quite quickly. 119
Loved Out failed to justify strong market support ahead of his hurdling debut here in November, partially due to an imperfect ride, but largely due to poor jumping. He was not much better at Leopardstown four days earlier where he finished down the field, but was well supported to make amends here. Having opened at 25/1 in the morning, he started this contest at a fifth of that price. Racing in tandem with Coventry for most of the race, he was left behind by his partner of convenience turning for home where his task switched to a long and protracted battle for third with Roma Delight. He prevailed by a short head although his drifting into the filly may have made the difference and probably would have been challenged in the stewards room had they been first and second past the post. Loved Out was very untidy over the first and slow over the second, but apart from getting close to the fifth, jumped reasonably well. This effort matches his debut course and distance performance and while he is limited in his potential, is capable of being competitive at a moderate level. 104
Roma Delight spent the first portion of her career in the United States where she largely contested maiden claimers and ran to a fair level. In November, she ran no kind of race at Dundalk on her Irish debut and was subject to a peculiar ride on her hurdling bow over course and distance later that month. The strategy was less convoluted next time at Fairyhouse as she went to the front, jumped exuberantly, and tired five furlongs from home. Similar tactics were employed here and though she was somewhat keen, she was hardly pulling the rider's arms out and was settled behind the winner by the back straight. Her jumping had also improved as apart from hopping over the first and steadying slightly into the fourth, she posted her clearest round to date. Class began to tell in the concluding stages, but she was still an engaged participant in the battle for third which she ceded by the tightest of margins. This was a vast improvement on her previous efforts and she has clearly learned from her experiences. Though she has no pretentions to any higher level, she can make her presence felt in modest company. 97
Saeer ran four times for Sir Michael Stoute, and with a flat rating of 63, joined Gordon Elliott for 9,000 guineas. An unused reserve at Leopardstown, horses leaving Freemason Lodge generally struggle to improve on their flat form and he was the least fancied of his yard's three runners. Held up in midfield, he never looked like getting competitive and still had seven ahead of him at the distance. He usurped three of those rivals but was still beaten forty-four lengths in the end. His hurdling had been reasonable prior to a slow jump at the sixth, and the round was capped off by a pair of tired leaps at the final two flights. It was not a disgraceful introduction and wanting for fitness, he likely blew up towards the end. He might be suited by an easier test. 87
Away To Sea got worked up in the stalls before his sole flat outing at Tipperary back in August, but ran with credit to finish just over a four length fourth. The subject of support ahead of his hurdling debut, he was sent off at 6/1 from a morning show of 16/1. However, his jumping was not up to a decent standard and he made errors at every flight, ranging from steadying on the approach, getting too close and landing steeply. Tracking Coventry and Roma Delight, he was still in contention with a third of a mile to go, but was left behind by the principles and faded quickly thereafter. Though he is decidedly inexperienced, he has shown some ability on both of his outings and given that he is bred to do well in the sphere, he can still mature into something more compelling. 86
Sweet Will was the most experienced runner in the field courtesy of his runs at Sligo, Fairyhouse and Limerick. The closest he had finished to the winner had been thirty-two lengths, but his jumping had been reasonable on his previous two outings. Save for a blunder at the sixth, he put in another acceptable round of hurdling without ever threatening to get remotely competitive. This effort matched his best in the sphere, and he is establishing himself as a consistent, if moderate performer. A handicap mark may help him more than a trip. 86
Zanavi ran creditable race on the second of his two runs for Dermot Weld to finish runner-up in a Curragh maiden ahead of his €34,000 switch to Denis Gerard Hogan. By Champs Elysees and from the Petite Etoile damline, he has the credentials to do well in the sphere but was significantly uneasy in the market ahead of his hurdling bow. His introduction got off to an inauspicious start as he was badly baulked at the first. This may have had a significant effect on his confidence as he jumped poorly thereafter. Reticent and very close at the second, he was careful over the third, close to the next three and low and skewed at the third last. Though he was positioned on the more prominent end of midfield, he began to lose touch leaving the back and was never able to regain momentum. Due to his being impeded at the first, it is reasonable to forgive this performance even though the drift beforehand is not easy to ignore. 85
Lady Kapalua had been quite ignominious on her two starts to date coming at Roscommon in August, and Fairyhouse in December. Nevertheless, though she never left the rear and was beaten fifty-eight lengths, she posted her best round of jumping, and her best performance to date. 66
Kashi was bought out of the Andrew Balding yard for 8,000 guineas after failing to match his debut second at Kempton in four subsequent outings. He is not unfeasibly bred for the discipline and though he went right at the first and was untidy at the second, his jumping was largely acceptable. He was unable to leave the rear however and was struggling a fair way from home before finishing tired. 53
Rich Belief had a higher flat rating and price tag than stablemate Kashi and starting at 22/1, was also half his odds. However, he was always in the rear and jumped poorly before finishing eighteen lengths behind his travelling companion. 35
Anno Maximo was second off a mark of 60 in a firm ground Bath handicap on his penultimate start for Micheal Bell, but his breeding suggested that he could do reasonably well over hurdles. However, he was unfancied in the betting and made minor errors without ever escaping the rear. 35
Raamez won as a two-year-old for John Hammond and was not disgraced on his first outing for François Rohaut back in May. However, his form deteriorated in the meantime and he fetched just 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Held up in mid-division, he was fluent enough in the early stages but his jumping fell to pieces after getting very close to the fourth and was a spent force with half a mile to run. This performance in conjunction with his regressive flat form leaves him with much to answer. 7
Wonwabbitwon finished third at Leopardstown on his racecourse debut in June, and was not disgraced when fourth in a Curragh maiden when last seen in early November. His three outings in between had been moderate and he drifted from 12/1 to 50/1 through the day. Taking a keen hold and racing prominently, he was low over the first but otherwise jumped adequately. However, he lost his position leaving the back and would weaken rapidly from there before finishing hopelessly tailed off. Though the fact that he was beaten by over 161 lengths should not be ignored, this effort was not devoid of promise and he might provide a better insight into his ability in a less demanding contest. 0
Undercommunication is not a forlorn hope for the division on his breeding, although he barely warranted his low flat rating and is a doubtful stayer. Nearer last than first, his jumping went from acceptable to poor from the fourth onwards and was also completely tailed off. 0
Duck And Vanish was largely consistent on the flat for William Haggas and twice finished second in maidens at Lingfield and Pontefract. 13,000 guineas looked a reasonable price for a horse of his ability, but he has already undergone a pair of wind operations and was weak in the market beforehand. Apart from being big over the first, he was largely adept at his hurdles and was still just about in touch leaving the back. However, he weakened tamely and finished a further twenty-one lengths behind Undercommunication. 0
Freds Honour is a homebred son of Rock Of Gibraltar and was making his racecourse debut here. He was not without some backers as he went from 80/1 to 66/1 before the off, but he jumped very untidily at the second and was slow over the next before fading and pulling up before three out. 0
Pretorius provided viewers with some comic relief during the preliminaries by exuviating his jockey when leaving the paddock, and exploring the vast expanses of Punchestown racecourse. During his adventure in the snow, he even cleared one of the bank fences and while he was not especially tidy, and was slow getting away, he negotiated it safely enough. After joining his equine chums at the start, he became bored with milling around, and galloped along the road back to the saddling enclosure. While we learned nothing of his ability as a juvenile hurdler, Pretorius was still able to demonstrate a willingness to jump large obstacles, and an intelligence which may or may not be helpful in his intended vocation.
MUSSELBURGH 1st January
Preview review
The strong prospect did not win in the fashion of a 1/4 shot, but was still the clear best on the day. Runner-up Herbiers started at a 50/1 which completely disregarded the multitude of factors which made him a reasonable prospect. Kings Creek ran close to form despite a lesser round of jumping and Red Missile also ran in keeping with his ability. Feldspar surpassed expectations which were broadly based on his moderate flat form, but there were factors within his profile which justified his improvement. There were no discernible oversights in the preview.
Race review
Fiveandtwenty followed up her course and distance success, but it was not as visually impressive and this is also reflected in the winning time which was 1.77 seconds slower than her debut win. Nevertheless, the early pace was almost identical and accounting for the additional eighteen yards and six pound penalty, it is essentially an identical performance. It was only 1.3 seconds slower than the Hogmaneigh Hurdle and although the front two in the contest were outsiders, neither were forlorn hopes. In assuming Fiveandtwenty matched her debut outing, the application of according ratings for Feldspar, who improved by over a stone for his hurdles debut, and for Kings Creek, who surpassed his Catterick win despite jumping poorly ,reveal potential inconsistencies. Nevertheless, the former had elements in his profile which made such improvement feasible, and the latter might well have improved for stripping fitter. Overall, it was a truly run contest and the concluding protagonists were credible. The first five were covered by just over seven lengths and the standard of jumping was rather moderate, but while a few might shift positions, the form looks reliable enough at face value.
Fiveandtwenty won three times on the flat for Mark Johnston was a resounding twenty-six length winner of her hurdling debut over course and distance last month. She was backed from 8/15 to 1/4 to land the double and while she never looked like failing in her endeavour, was not quite as impressive. Making all as she had done the first time, she was untidy over the fourth, tripped over the next and was slightly untidy over a few others while being slow to get away from the last. Her advantage in December was of several lengths from the start, half a dozen on the turn and much further at the line, whereas in this instance, the pursuers were always within a couple of lengths and the gap never extended beyond the two lengths at the line. Fiveandtwenty did not see out the race like a fresh horse, but did not do so last month either. A winner over fourteen furlongs on good to firm at this track in September, it is plausible that this is as testing a circuit she can manage on soft ground, but may be adept at other venues on better ground. Though largely consistent and able, her rating of 129 looks harsh on what she has accomplished. The Scottish Triumph Trial has been suggested as a potential target. 118
Herbiers was beaten sixty lengths on his British debut in an Exeter bumper, but his win at Moulins in June was sufficient for owners to reject a €100,000 bid at Arqana. There, he showed a fine battling attitude to win form a subsequent winner who has the measure of Ditcheat recruit Houx Gris. Eschewing Wetherby for the better ground here, he was unconsidered in the market and drifted from 20/1 in the morning to 50/1 at the off. Racing wide and tracking the leader throughout, he was briefly caught for pace on the home turn, but was able to stay on up the run-in and had enough to fend off the the late challenge from the third. He settled well into the race and apart from being untidy at the second, was largely a proficient jumper. Though it remains to be seen how far he can progress, the Oliver Greenall yard appear to have a nice recruit on their hands. 117
Feldspar made his racecourse debut in June, and showed only moderate form in four starts for Amanda Perrett. Following a 6,000 guineas sale in October, he won a Wolverhampton handicap on the second of his three flat outings for Keith Dalgleigh off a mark of 57. His latest rating of 59 was the second lowest in this race, but being by Champs Elysees and closely related to useful hurdler Nearby, a switch to hurdles was not an unreasonable move. Tracking the leaders in midfield, Feldspar made steady progress on the run-in and got to within a length of the runner-up on passing the post. Besides missing the penultimate flight and landing steeply at the last, he hurdled well for a debutant and demonstrated decent athleticism during the journey. Time will tell if this performance was a true reflection of his ability, but there is little obvious reason to doubt this showing at face value and he could improve further with a more demanding test. 117
Kings Creek got off the mark at the fourth time of asking, ninth under both codes, when winning at Catterick last month. Formerly with Alan King, his initial performances had been professional without exuding noteworthy class. However, a seventy-seven break appeared to do him a world of good and he ran out a comfortable winner. His jumping was not as clean here as while he was fine over the first four flights, he was close to the fifth and sixth, untidy at the next, steady and low at two out, and untidy again at the last. The immediate impression is that he underperformed here. However, despite less than fluent hurdling, which has previously been compromised by racing at speed, the time, collateral form and weights indicate that this was a new career best. Evidently, for all that Kings Creek is a professional and consistent type, he probably needs kinder conditions and lesser company to be seen to full effect. 120
Red Missile appeared in Triumph lists at 66/1 prior to his hurdles bow at Perth where he was a fairly disappointing third in a moderate company. He went to Musselburgh the following month to fill the same position, albeit in stronger company. His jumping improved between those outings and though he made three consecutive errors at the fifth, sixth and seventh, he still emerged with some credit in this regard. He had led on his previous jumps outings but opted to track the leaders here which while not eliminating his keenness, helped him to settle better. He was outpaced on the turn for home and was never able to make inroads from there, but stayed on nevertheless and was fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. Red Missile is edging closer to his flat form with each outing and with maturity and a spin around a more demanding circuit, his unchanged rating of 106 could look very generous. 112
Go Bob Go finished second at Lingfield off 59 on his penultimate outing on the flat in a race which looks stronger in hindsight. Leaving Eve Johnson Houghton for 10,000 guineas, Go Bob Go joined a yard which is not as well stocked as others and this was reflected in his pre race drift from 33/1 to 100/1. He was keen early, never emerged from mid division and was ultimately beaten by just over twenty-two lengths. Notwithstanding, he jumped reasonably well as he was only slightly untidy over a couple of early jumps and slow to get away from three out. Go Bob Go is unlikely to challenge the principles should their rivalries be renewed. Nevertheless, there is no reason why he can not match and surpass his flat performances. 97
Kiss My Face was second on each of his bumper outings and was well supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Catterick. However, despite his talented trainer and sire, his inexperience resulted in some very untidy jumps and this performance marked a further regression. Getting in close to the first two, he was long and skewed over the third and would jump to his left, sometimes wildly, at each flight in the back straight. He was slow and untidy over his remaining jumps and was never able to leave the rear of the field. Curiously, his jumping to the left only occurred at the hurdles along the back and while it is possible that he will be helped by going left handed, this could have been a trait specific to Musselburgh. The more pressing concern is his maturity and until this is resolved, Kiss My Face does not inspire much confidence at this juncture. 90
Ajax Tavern cost connections 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale following a seven race flat career with Richard Hannon which resulted in a win, two places, and a rating of 78. Though he never ran beyond a mile and is from a family of sprinters, he was backed from 18/1 in the morning to 12/1 at the off. However, his jumping was substandard throughout with a litany of errors including skewing at the first, being big and untidy at the second, trailing his hind legs through the fourth and steadying into the fifth. His round was completed with tired jumps and he finished tailed off. Early keenness exacerbated the stamina concerns and it is difficult to envisage him replicating his flat ability over hurdles. 64
Gypsy Traveller is a stablemate of Go Bob Go, but his flat exploits were moderate and he was withdrawn for unruly behaviour as often as he actually raced. He was completely unfancied here and played up at the start. After jumping very moderately in the rear throughout, he finished tailed off. 31
Poetica 2/1/2021 Cork 2m Maiden Hurdle
Poetica's first two runs over hurdles could be ignored as her saddle slipped at Cork, and he was hampered and unseated early on at Leopardstown. Starting at 125/1, she was in the rear throughout, was very steady and slow at all of the hurdles where she was picked up by the camera, and finished seventy-three lengths last of seventeen. 34
SANDOWN 2nd January
Preview review
The award of strong prospects to Warranty was partially an attempt to be clever, partially a consideration of the below average performances of odds-on favourites in juvenile hurdles at Sandown and the suitability of the race for Warranty. Nevertheless, Warranty traded at 2.12 in-running having opened at 14/1, and the odds-on favourite went traded at 5.1 during the race so the ambition was not entirely misplaced. While the strong prospect was surpassed by the reasonable ones in the correct order, the three finished clear of the other pair whose chances were moderate/negligible.
Race review
This contest is traditionally one of the lesser juvenile hurdles held at Sandown, and while a few came carrying some potential, it was not an especially compelling affair. Nevertheless, the winner confirmed his debut promise and the runner-up ran well in unsuitable conditions. The winning time was over ten seconds slower than in the Tolworth, and over six slower than the concluding handicap. However, all this really informs is that the early pace was very moderate as the first half of the race was ran at a comparative crawl. Though the first three were guilty of some untidy jumps, the overall standard of hurdling was perfectly acceptable and the first two especially look better than average.
Hudson de Grugy is notably related to the yard's Sire de Grugy, but has plenty of other winners closer on the damline. After winning an AQPS bumper on the last of his four runs in France, he belied a pre-race drift to finish a creditable second on his jumps bow at this venue last month. Though novicey at several hurdles, he was better when given instruction from the rider and it was a similar case here. Getting in close to the third and fifth, he was much better when ridden into the final three flights even if he pecked slightly on landing at the last. Leading from the start at a steady tempo, he was very briefly headed approaching the penultimate flight. However, after taking the time to organise himself, he stayed on strongly up the hill and had the best part of three lengths in hand passing the post. His bare achievements to this point amount to not much above average. Nevertheless, as he still has plenty to learn about racing, it can be assumed that he can progress further and develop into a nice type in the long term. 115
Hystery Bere ran with credit on his first three completed starts in France before winning at Le Lion-d'Angers back in July. Making his British debut in a first time tongue tie following a break of 157 days, he was slightly untidy over the first couple of flights and got in close to the sixth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was neat more often than not and was slightly baulked on landing after the winner crossed his path. Though he was beaten entirely on merit, this was still a promising introduction and he may be seen in an even better light on a sounder surface. 118
Warranty won a maiden handicap at Beverly on his final flat start which has worked out well, and was supported in the market ahead of his hurdles debut at Wetherby. However, a series of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffled back through the field and he was never able to reach a challenging position. His attempt at redemption was curtailed at Kempton as he was carried out after just two jumps, but he jumped the first hurdle well and the race conditions here appeared to look suitable. The slow early gallop compromised his jumping, but it was never disastrous and it improve as the tempo increased. Racing wide and tracking the leaders, he moved menacingly turning into the straight and traded close to evens before finding himself outpaced by the front pair. Nevertheless, he finished within eight lengths of the winner and eighteen lengths clear of the others and the performance marks a new career best in either discipline. 107
Cloud Thunder was a fair maiden on the flat, but was pitched in at the deep end on his hurdles bow at Doncaster where he failed to convince in his attitude or aptitude. He ran out at the paddock bend at Kempton over the festive period, but went from 16/1 to 11/2 in the market to redeem himself here. However, while he settled quite quickly and passed the paddock bend without any fuss, his jumping still left plenty to be desired as he was steady and overly cautious over the first three, got in close to the next two, and was steady and slow over the penultimate flight. Slightly detached for most of the contest, he managed to run into fourth up the straight, but never threatened to look competitive. Although this is his best hurdles performance to date, it still leaves him way short of his flat ability and there is work to be done before he can be competitive. 89
Letter At Dawn finished down the field on his sole flat outing at the Curragh in early November, and received only mild support in the morning to fare better on his hurdles bow. Held up in touch, he gave his hurdles plenty of air and was untidy in the closing stages where he faded tamely. There is plenty of time for him to develop, although the foundation is quite low at this juncture. 74
State Crown 3/1/2021 Plumpton 2m Handicap Hurdle (116)
State Crown finished runner-up over hurdles twice from as many starts since joining Evan Williams, and was fairly treated in the weights ahead of his handicap debut. The ground was likely softer than ideal and he drifted from 11/8 in the morning, to 11/4 at flagfall. His jumping had given no cause for trepidation on his previous outings, but he was steady and close to the second, close again at the third, and made a blunder at the sixth. Notwithstanding, he was better at those where he was ridden into the approach. Fairly keen in the early stages and racing prominently throughout, he went into the lead midway through the back straight. However, he was headed on the turn for home and would weaken from thereon in to finish a nine length third of six finishers. He was far from disgraced on this outing, and his unchanged mark is still workable on his best form. Nevertheless, he will likely appreciate a return to better ground. 109
Crassus 3/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (119)
Crassus has performed very creditably during his hurdling career to date, and came into this contest on a very fair handicap mark. However, his chances were heavily compromised by what can be fairly described as unsuitable. While Crassus habitually jumps and travels well, he was restrained in the early stages to an inappropriate degree. A point illustrated by the first eight being covered by just over seven lengths, and the winning time being the slowest jumps race on the card by seconds per furlong against the standard. The rider also had a tendency to pull on the approach which resulted in Crassus getting too close to the third, and losing momentum at the last where he second guessed himself and hopped through the flight before landing awkwardly. By contrast, his being ridden into the last at Limerick was rewarded with a fine leap which put the seal on the race. Furthermore, Crassus had shown an aversion to the whip and though he lengthened nicely and established a lead between the final two prior to the last flight error, his ride on the run-in consisted of being pulled with one hand and whipped with the other which caused his head to go up and his stride to shorten. This is in no way a commentary on the rider's overall ability as a horseperson and certainly not a denigration of the human being in the saddle. However, assuming the winning plot horse did not have several additional lengths to spare, this riding performance very likely made the difference between victory and defeat. A rise of two pounds is not ideal for Crassus, but his best form is still superior to the tune of a few pounds so it is hoped that this experience has not eroded any of that edge. 119
Rock Chica 3/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (108)
Rock Chica enjoyed the conditions when winning her second hurdles outing at Tipperary, and was outclassed in better company on her next two starts. The ground will have suited here, but her mark was fairly harsh based on her achievements. Usually a reasonable jumper, apart from getting close to the first and low at the last, she put in another fair round. Her mark remains unchanged however which will keep life difficult unless she either improves or finds a weak enough contest. 102
TAUNTON 30th December
Preview review
Could have been worse. Flying Tiger drifted before his racecourse debut and reportedly made a noise but without Can't Stop Now falling at the last, the prospects list and finishing order would not have been too distorted. Strong prospect Volkovka was the cleanest jumper of the race, went down by a narrow margin and may well have won had her rival not found the rail. Wightman had feasible prospects and his imperfect jumping was once again prevalent, but slightly diluted since his debut and the noted sharper test was very much to his advantage. Can't Stop Now was in the process of running a fine race, but the free running sort was still prone to making errors and with the Taunton not being as sharp as Fakenham, the moderately higher demands proved telling. Iron Heart received plenty of market support, but was once again let down by his jumping.
Race review
This did not look a bad contest beforehand, but by the same token, it was not especially strong either. The principles had every reason to finish as they did and the distances were very reasonable.. Nevertheless, while the race was run at a solid pace, it was still some three and a half seconds slower than the race won by Talking About You later on the card. Nevertheless, the tempo was sufficient to thin the field out before too long, and those that remained were a class ahead of the outsiders. The form looks reliable enough, but since the principles are not obvious penalty defiers, the contest overall has about it a "division three" quality.
Wightman won one from twelve on the flat and his latest official rating of 69 is just above average for the division. Staying with Mick Channon for a hurdling career, he ran with some promise at Newbury where he was an eighteen length sixth in a better race. His jumping was not catastrophic, but he did have a tendency to land steeply which re-emerged to a lesser degree here. He also rather failed to see out the trip, but this sharp circuit will likely have been the upper end of his limits. Along with being steep over the second and the seventh, Wightman skewed at the first, was slow over the third, close at the fourth and stumbled slightly at the seventh. Again, none of these errors were catastrophic, and after being prominent in the pursuit of the clear leader for much of the contest, had bridged the gap at the turn for home and jumped the last in a marginal lead. The battle with Volkovka along the entirety of the run-in was tight and well contested throughout. He briefly played second fiddle, but his drifting to the rails proved advantageous as he regained the lead at the line to score by a head. This was good improvement on his Newbury bow, and it brings Wightman closer to the best of his flat form which came over a mile. Life will be more difficult under a penalty and though there is scope for improvement in the jumping department, he will probably need another test as sharp as this in order to perform. 106
Volkovka had shown fair form on the flat in France and despite being bought out of a claimer, her flat ability is above average for the sphere. She flopped badly on her British debut at Fakenham and was in the process of running only a fair race when blundering badly next time at Leicester. She got off the mark at Market Rasen just over a fortnight later thanks to moderate opposition and her best round of jumping to date. Apart from minor imperfections at the fourth and seventh, she posted another decent display of hurdling and traded as low as 1.1 in-running to double her hurdles tally. Initially held up towards the rear of midfield, she moved comfortably through a field that struggled to live with the pace. Reaching the front alongside the winner at the final flight, she plugged on gamely and was only denied by Wightman's discovery of the rail. This marks a hurdles best to the tune of roughly half a stone, and there may be further to come if stepped up in trip. 105
Iron Heart's three strongest performances on the flat for Andrew Balding came when 'firm' appeared in the going description. His first two jumps appearances were marked by reticent hurdling, although he also picked up minor injuries during those outings which might have accounted for same. He built on his Wincanton form when last seen at Newbury where he finished five lengths ahead of Wightman, and was backed into favouritism to get off the mark here. There was less apprehension in his hurdling here, but it was not an error free round as was somewhat untidy at the first, got close into the second and sixth and was steady approaching the fourth. He was never far off the leaders but simultaneously, never got to within a threatening position and was left in third after the last. Though many juveniles from the yard find their footing when switched to handicaps, the market support beforehand suggested that improvement may have been forthcoming here. Were it the case that Iron Heart had become more assured at his jumping then the confidence was partially vindicated. However, his jumping remains far from polished and he has yet to show himself proficient on softer ground. His fresh rating of 107 is not especially harsh based on his hurdles form and could be quite viable on his flat form, especially on a sounder surface. 95
Shutupshirley has a stout pedigree for a juvenile hurdler and in the two runs since his racecourse debut in October, he has found himself decidedly outpaced. Always in the rear, he was unable to live with the early tempo on this sharp circuit and finished a never nearer eighteen length fourth after passing beaten rivals. His jumping was fine as per usual and the trainer afterwards reported a respiratory noise. Though his mark of 101 does not reflect his hitherto achievements, it is not unreasonable to assume that a step up in trip and a breathing operation should foment improvement. 87
Theocrat made a fair hurdling introduction at Ludlow in early October when less than four lengths fourth to Orchestral Rain, but pulled too hard for his own good when returning to Shropshire the following month. He pulled again in the early stages here but had settled better after around three furlongs. Though slightly untidy at a few of his hurdles and putting in a tired leap two out, his jumping is essentially passable for the sphere. While this was a step up on his last outing, it was still a long way from his debut performance and unless he is able to replicate same, his mark of 100 will be difficult to reach. 70
Masterdream cost 56,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, but his flat form with John Oxx did not particularly warrant such a price and his two subsequent hurdles outings have been disappointing. He had lacked fluency and confidence at most hurdles at Sandown, but in fairness, he was only steady at a couple here and was generally quite tidy. He was also impeded slightly at the first and at two out, but was never in a position to challenge in any case. Masterdream bettered his Sandown performance, but he still needs to show considerably more before he can be competitive. 68
Can't Stop Now rather defied expectations when third on his hurdles debut at Kempton, and though he essentially refused to race next time at Ludlow, he was successful at Fakenham at the end of November. Despite running freely and jumping poorly, his free-running style enabled him to run out a rather decisive winner. He employed the same tactics here and despite wandering at the first. putting in a long leap at the third, going through the top of the fourth and getting close to the next two, he was only caught at the last. There, he failed to take off in time and took a tumbling fall. Though he held a commanding lead for most of the contest, he never traded odds-on in-running and was probably a spent force by the last flight. Thankfully he got up from his fall and he can post similar performances at this kind of level provided it is as a sharp track. While he might benefit from settling better, it appears that his potency lies in his immoderate style. Though he has subsequently been dropped two pounds to 122, this mark is still a good stone off his flat or jumps ability. 103
Numberoneson had won off 79 on his final start for Joseph O'Brien in July, but was most disappointing on his first two starts over hurdles at Ludlow and Wetherby. His hurdling and travelling had been poor on each occasion, but running in first time blinkers, he tracked the leader for most of the contest and was still in second jumping the third last. He weakened quickly thereafter and was pulled up on entering the straight. While it is difficult to draw positives from such a performance, apart from steadying at the fourth and fifth, he jumped better than usual as well as travelling prominently for longer. Notwithstanding, while this perhaps betters his debut run despite pulling up, there is still clearly something missing and Numberoneson continues to have plenty to prove. 0
Zellerate managed to finish runner-up last time at Fontwell, but he was almost fifty lengths behind the winner and those placed behind him ran abysmally. Otherwise, his career consists of tailing off in a bumper and now two pulled-ups. Never nearer than midfield, he was slightly baulked at a couple of hurdles, but still steadied into a few himself while jumping untidily at times. His rating of 83 is a low one, but it still flatters him on what he has achieved thus far. 0
Presgrave is another former inmate of Joseph O'Brien's and while he did not win on the flat, his form in that sphere was at least average. He had been tried in all manner of headgear however and though he travelled easily enough, there was a discernible lack of fluency. He began the race in a prominent position, but was already losing ground entering the back straight and was pulled up before the turn for home. 0
Impetuous finished her flat career with a rating of just 35 and was completely unfancied ahead of her hurdles bow. She was steady, big and untidy over her first few jumps and while she was marginally better at the fourth, she was already ridden and detached by that stage. She got in close to the next and was pulled up afterwards. 0
Fighting Tiger is a half-brother to Flying Tiger who won the Fred Winter for the yard in 2017. Making his racecourse debut, he had already gone a wind operation and was a drifter in the market beforehand. He was untidy over his hurdles and pulled up before the sixth, reportedly having made a respiratory noise. 0
Siempre Rapido has a flat rating of 70, but carried stamina doubts into this contest and was not fancied in the market. Though he hopped slightly over the first, he jumped his next four reasonably well. However, he weakened quickly and was pulled up before the next having also made a noise. 0
Talking About You 30/12/2020 Taunton 2m½f Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed)
The transformation Talking About You has undergone since her jumps debut in early August has been little short of remarkable. While the began her hurdling career as an outlandishly temperamental sort, she was able to win on her third start at Fontwell before appearing to revert to form in her next couple of races. Returning after a wind operation and short break, she ran creditably at Fakenham before taking a large leap forward at Ludlow with a fine hurdling display resulting in a decisive victory. While her jumping was not as sound at Aintree, she gained her first black type and would double her pattern tally here. Disputing the lead for most of the contest, her jumping was once again lacking as she steadied into half of her hurdles as well as getting in close to a couple in a rather alarming fashion. Turning into the straight with a length advantage, she was very untidy and slow to get away from the last. Nevertheless, she was ridden out under a moderate drive to cross the line with a definitive two and a quarter length lead. While this marked a second listed win, the form should not really be overstated as even though the third was rated 140, she is flagrantly better on good ground. Nevertheless, she has reaffirmed her abilities against older horses and should remain a force to be reckoned with against her own sex in the division. Although talks of Cheltenham were dismissed by connections, Aintree has been a stated option. While she would be some way off the best colts in the division, particularly if the Irish contingent will be allowed to compete, a race like Doncaster's fillies' race later in the month could be a good target as she need only carry a five pound penalty. 124
Marta Des Mottes 30/12/2020 Taunton 2m½f Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed)
Finishing well beaten on the flat in February, Marta Des Mottes was an 18/1 winner of an Angers claimer on her hurdling debut in May. After finishing an eleven length fourth in a better race at Clairefontaine, she won a good ground conditions event at La Teste De Buch in July, conceding upwards of five kilos from her strung out rivals. The form of neither of her wins has any real value, but her hurdling improved between these outings with neater jumps outnumbering those lacking fluency. Tom Symonds has done well with a small number of French hurdling recruits in the division, but Marta Des Mottes has only one behind her in the betting ahead of her British debut. Keen early while tracking the leaders, she was no worse than untidy with her worst error coming at the fifth where she was steady and skewed in the air. However, she was the first to come off the bridle in the back straight and would soon lose touch before finishing over thirty-five lengths last of five. There is little reason to suspect that this was her true showing as it was her first run in over five months and though she won a claimer on soft ground, she may be happier on a sounder surface. 84
PUNCHESTOWN 31st December
Preview review
With Zanavi jumping poorly and Persia being withdrawn due to a bereavement, Riviere d'Etel's task was a simple one. Though she was keen in the early stages, it was not to the detriment of her performance and she ran out a very cosy winner. Zanavi's trainer has a 100% clear round record with his first time juveniles so his poor round could not really have been foreseen. He was badly baulked at the first which may have affected his confidence. The next four to finish had moderate and negligible prospects so in this regard, they were all underestimated by the preview and, barring Loved Out, the market. Coventry has a strong flat pedigree and just two runs to his name, was less exposed than most Ballydoyle cast-offs. Loved Out was well beaten four days earlier, but there was promise on his debut at this venue and though the record of his yard's juveniles returning quickly was poor, it was noted that the one placed horse was also the shortest priced and Loved Out started the race at a fifth of his morning price. Roma Delight had shown pace when free-running on previous outings, and a better round of jumping enabled her to stay in contention for longer. Saeer was given moderate prospects, but finished seventeen lengths behind Roma Delight in any case. Given that those who underperformed had only feasible prospects, the only real take aways would be to be more mindful of unexposed horses with potential, and those with experience of front running.
Race review
Following the withdrawal of Persia and the underperformance of Zanavi, Riviere d'Etel had not a great deal to beat. But though she was not always the tidiest, she was undeniably convincing. The winning time was over sixteen seconds quicker than the later handicap and while that was a moderate race and the ground may have been extremely testing at that point, Riviere d'Etel's time is still half a second per furlong superior to those posted in the other races against the standard. This is all the more noteworthy as the race was run through a veritable blizzard with moderate visibility. The overall standard of jumping could have been cleaner, but in fairness, these youngsters did quite well given the conditions. The winner was a different class, but the despite the long prices, those who finished behind had feasible reasons to do so and were very well strung out. Since the circumstances were quite exceptional, the form may not translate beyond its environment. Nevertheless, with the possible exception of Zanavi's confidence being shot at the first, there is little reason to not take the form at face value.
Riviere d'Etel finished second in the pouliches version of the Prix Finot on her sole hurdles run where the front pair finished a long way clear, and the winning time was a good one. She had been quite wayward on that occasion which was also reflected in her jumping. Some of those tendencies were still apparent here, but running in a first time hood, she was still keen without being alarmingly headstrong and her jumping was never much worse than untidy. Tracking the leaders in the opening stages, she took the lead on turning away from the stands and after being shaken up briefly before the home turn, quickly established a commanding lead. Despite an untidy jump at the last, she was not asked to pick up and passed the post an easy twelve length winner. Though this was not a polished performance, it was still one of considerable potential and by far the strongest seen by any filly this season. She clearly handles testing conditions very well and while it remains to be seen if she can be versatile on better ground, her pedigree suggests that it is not beyond the realm of possibility. Although she could develop into Triumph class, the yard already has an embarrassment of riches in the division and the current favourite is in the same ownership. As such, the mares' novice might be a more feasible target should Irish horses be allowed to compete at the festival. 131
Coventry is by Galileo and out of an Irish Oaks winning daughter of an Irish Oaks runner-up. He began his career at Ballydoyle, but failed to reach the first ten in a pair of Curragh maidens either side of early 2020. Prior to Coventry's run, John Halley saddled seventeen juveniles since 2008/09 with all of them formerly trained by Aiden O'Brien, and only Foreign Secretary winning a five runner Limerick contest in March 2019. Drifting from 22/1 to 50/1 in the ring, Coventry was at the head of the chasing group and moved into a prominent position towards the end of the back. Though his pursuit of the winner was a hopeless task, he was able to forge clear of the remainder over which he held a fifteen length advantage at the line. There is work to be done on his jumping as he was close at the first and fifth, slow over the second, steady and untidy at two and and somewhat careful over the last. This is the strongest debut performance from a John Halley trained juvenile during the past decade and it remains to be seen how long Coventry stays with his current handler as those who show promise, such as Ballyglasheen, Enchanted Forest and Great Trango, are usually moved along quite quickly. 119
Loved Out failed to justify strong market support ahead of his hurdling debut here in November, partially due to an imperfect ride, but largely due to poor jumping. He was not much better at Leopardstown four days earlier where he finished down the field, but was well supported to make amends here. Having opened at 25/1 in the morning, he started this contest at a fifth of that price. Racing in tandem with Coventry for most of the race, he was left behind by his partner of convenience turning for home where his task switched to a long and protracted battle for third with Roma Delight. He prevailed by a short head although his drifting into the filly may have made the difference and probably would have been challenged in the stewards room had they been first and second past the post. Loved Out was very untidy over the first and slow over the second, but apart from getting close to the fifth, jumped reasonably well. This effort matches his debut course and distance performance and while he is limited in his potential, is capable of being competitive at a moderate level. 104
Roma Delight spent the first portion of her career in the United States where she largely contested maiden claimers and ran to a fair level. In November, she ran no kind of race at Dundalk on her Irish debut and was subject to a peculiar ride on her hurdling bow over course and distance later that month. The strategy was less convoluted next time at Fairyhouse as she went to the front, jumped exuberantly, and tired five furlongs from home. Similar tactics were employed here and though she was somewhat keen, she was hardly pulling the rider's arms out and was settled behind the winner by the back straight. Her jumping had also improved as apart from hopping over the first and steadying slightly into the fourth, she posted her clearest round to date. Class began to tell in the concluding stages, but she was still an engaged participant in the battle for third which she ceded by the tightest of margins. This was a vast improvement on her previous efforts and she has clearly learned from her experiences. Though she has no pretentions to any higher level, she can make her presence felt in modest company. 97
Saeer ran four times for Sir Michael Stoute, and with a flat rating of 63, joined Gordon Elliott for 9,000 guineas. An unused reserve at Leopardstown, horses leaving Freemason Lodge generally struggle to improve on their flat form and he was the least fancied of his yard's three runners. Held up in midfield, he never looked like getting competitive and still had seven ahead of him at the distance. He usurped three of those rivals but was still beaten forty-four lengths in the end. His hurdling had been reasonable prior to a slow jump at the sixth, and the round was capped off by a pair of tired leaps at the final two flights. It was not a disgraceful introduction and wanting for fitness, he likely blew up towards the end. He might be suited by an easier test. 87
Away To Sea got worked up in the stalls before his sole flat outing at Tipperary back in August, but ran with credit to finish just over a four length fourth. The subject of support ahead of his hurdling debut, he was sent off at 6/1 from a morning show of 16/1. However, his jumping was not up to a decent standard and he made errors at every flight, ranging from steadying on the approach, getting too close and landing steeply. Tracking Coventry and Roma Delight, he was still in contention with a third of a mile to go, but was left behind by the principles and faded quickly thereafter. Though he is decidedly inexperienced, he has shown some ability on both of his outings and given that he is bred to do well in the sphere, he can still mature into something more compelling. 86
Sweet Will was the most experienced runner in the field courtesy of his runs at Sligo, Fairyhouse and Limerick. The closest he had finished to the winner had been thirty-two lengths, but his jumping had been reasonable on his previous two outings. Save for a blunder at the sixth, he put in another acceptable round of hurdling without ever threatening to get remotely competitive. This effort matched his best in the sphere, and he is establishing himself as a consistent, if moderate performer. A handicap mark may help him more than a trip. 86
Zanavi ran creditable race on the second of his two runs for Dermot Weld to finish runner-up in a Curragh maiden ahead of his €34,000 switch to Denis Gerard Hogan. By Champs Elysees and from the Petite Etoile damline, he has the credentials to do well in the sphere but was significantly uneasy in the market ahead of his hurdling bow. His introduction got off to an inauspicious start as he was badly baulked at the first. This may have had a significant effect on his confidence as he jumped poorly thereafter. Reticent and very close at the second, he was careful over the third, close to the next three and low and skewed at the third last. Though he was positioned on the more prominent end of midfield, he began to lose touch leaving the back and was never able to regain momentum. Due to his being impeded at the first, it is reasonable to forgive this performance even though the drift beforehand is not easy to ignore. 85
Lady Kapalua had been quite ignominious on her two starts to date coming at Roscommon in August, and Fairyhouse in December. Nevertheless, though she never left the rear and was beaten fifty-eight lengths, she posted her best round of jumping, and her best performance to date. 66
Kashi was bought out of the Andrew Balding yard for 8,000 guineas after failing to match his debut second at Kempton in four subsequent outings. He is not unfeasibly bred for the discipline and though he went right at the first and was untidy at the second, his jumping was largely acceptable. He was unable to leave the rear however and was struggling a fair way from home before finishing tired. 53
Rich Belief had a higher flat rating and price tag than stablemate Kashi and starting at 22/1, was also half his odds. However, he was always in the rear and jumped poorly before finishing eighteen lengths behind his travelling companion. 35
Anno Maximo was second off a mark of 60 in a firm ground Bath handicap on his penultimate start for Micheal Bell, but his breeding suggested that he could do reasonably well over hurdles. However, he was unfancied in the betting and made minor errors without ever escaping the rear. 35
Raamez won as a two-year-old for John Hammond and was not disgraced on his first outing for François Rohaut back in May. However, his form deteriorated in the meantime and he fetched just 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Held up in mid-division, he was fluent enough in the early stages but his jumping fell to pieces after getting very close to the fourth and was a spent force with half a mile to run. This performance in conjunction with his regressive flat form leaves him with much to answer. 7
Wonwabbitwon finished third at Leopardstown on his racecourse debut in June, and was not disgraced when fourth in a Curragh maiden when last seen in early November. His three outings in between had been moderate and he drifted from 12/1 to 50/1 through the day. Taking a keen hold and racing prominently, he was low over the first but otherwise jumped adequately. However, he lost his position leaving the back and would weaken rapidly from there before finishing hopelessly tailed off. Though the fact that he was beaten by over 161 lengths should not be ignored, this effort was not devoid of promise and he might provide a better insight into his ability in a less demanding contest. 0
Undercommunication is not a forlorn hope for the division on his breeding, although he barely warranted his low flat rating and is a doubtful stayer. Nearer last than first, his jumping went from acceptable to poor from the fourth onwards and was also completely tailed off. 0
Duck And Vanish was largely consistent on the flat for William Haggas and twice finished second in maidens at Lingfield and Pontefract. 13,000 guineas looked a reasonable price for a horse of his ability, but he has already undergone a pair of wind operations and was weak in the market beforehand. Apart from being big over the first, he was largely adept at his hurdles and was still just about in touch leaving the back. However, he weakened tamely and finished a further twenty-one lengths behind Undercommunication. 0
Freds Honour is a homebred son of Rock Of Gibraltar and was making his racecourse debut here. He was not without some backers as he went from 80/1 to 66/1 before the off, but he jumped very untidily at the second and was slow over the next before fading and pulling up before three out. 0
Pretorius provided viewers with some comic relief during the preliminaries by exuviating his jockey when leaving the paddock, and exploring the vast expanses of Punchestown racecourse. During his adventure in the snow, he even cleared one of the bank fences and while he was not especially tidy, and was slow getting away, he negotiated it safely enough. After joining his equine chums at the start, he became bored with milling around, and galloped along the road back to the saddling enclosure. While we learned nothing of his ability as a juvenile hurdler, Pretorius was still able to demonstrate a willingness to jump large obstacles, and an intelligence which may or may not be helpful in his intended vocation.
MUSSELBURGH 1st January
Preview review
The strong prospect did not win in the fashion of a 1/4 shot, but was still the clear best on the day. Runner-up Herbiers started at a 50/1 which completely disregarded the multitude of factors which made him a reasonable prospect. Kings Creek ran close to form despite a lesser round of jumping and Red Missile also ran in keeping with his ability. Feldspar surpassed expectations which were broadly based on his moderate flat form, but there were factors within his profile which justified his improvement. There were no discernible oversights in the preview.
Race review
Fiveandtwenty followed up her course and distance success, but it was not as visually impressive and this is also reflected in the winning time which was 1.77 seconds slower than her debut win. Nevertheless, the early pace was almost identical and accounting for the additional eighteen yards and six pound penalty, it is essentially an identical performance. It was only 1.3 seconds slower than the Hogmaneigh Hurdle and although the front two in the contest were outsiders, neither were forlorn hopes. In assuming Fiveandtwenty matched her debut outing, the application of according ratings for Feldspar, who improved by over a stone for his hurdles debut, and for Kings Creek, who surpassed his Catterick win despite jumping poorly ,reveal potential inconsistencies. Nevertheless, the former had elements in his profile which made such improvement feasible, and the latter might well have improved for stripping fitter. Overall, it was a truly run contest and the concluding protagonists were credible. The first five were covered by just over seven lengths and the standard of jumping was rather moderate, but while a few might shift positions, the form looks reliable enough at face value.
Fiveandtwenty won three times on the flat for Mark Johnston was a resounding twenty-six length winner of her hurdling debut over course and distance last month. She was backed from 8/15 to 1/4 to land the double and while she never looked like failing in her endeavour, was not quite as impressive. Making all as she had done the first time, she was untidy over the fourth, tripped over the next and was slightly untidy over a few others while being slow to get away from the last. Her advantage in December was of several lengths from the start, half a dozen on the turn and much further at the line, whereas in this instance, the pursuers were always within a couple of lengths and the gap never extended beyond the two lengths at the line. Fiveandtwenty did not see out the race like a fresh horse, but did not do so last month either. A winner over fourteen furlongs on good to firm at this track in September, it is plausible that this is as testing a circuit she can manage on soft ground, but may be adept at other venues on better ground. Though largely consistent and able, her rating of 129 looks harsh on what she has accomplished. The Scottish Triumph Trial has been suggested as a potential target. 118
Herbiers was beaten sixty lengths on his British debut in an Exeter bumper, but his win at Moulins in June was sufficient for owners to reject a €100,000 bid at Arqana. There, he showed a fine battling attitude to win form a subsequent winner who has the measure of Ditcheat recruit Houx Gris. Eschewing Wetherby for the better ground here, he was unconsidered in the market and drifted from 20/1 in the morning to 50/1 at the off. Racing wide and tracking the leader throughout, he was briefly caught for pace on the home turn, but was able to stay on up the run-in and had enough to fend off the the late challenge from the third. He settled well into the race and apart from being untidy at the second, was largely a proficient jumper. Though it remains to be seen how far he can progress, the Oliver Greenall yard appear to have a nice recruit on their hands. 117
Feldspar made his racecourse debut in June, and showed only moderate form in four starts for Amanda Perrett. Following a 6,000 guineas sale in October, he won a Wolverhampton handicap on the second of his three flat outings for Keith Dalgleigh off a mark of 57. His latest rating of 59 was the second lowest in this race, but being by Champs Elysees and closely related to useful hurdler Nearby, a switch to hurdles was not an unreasonable move. Tracking the leaders in midfield, Feldspar made steady progress on the run-in and got to within a length of the runner-up on passing the post. Besides missing the penultimate flight and landing steeply at the last, he hurdled well for a debutant and demonstrated decent athleticism during the journey. Time will tell if this performance was a true reflection of his ability, but there is little obvious reason to doubt this showing at face value and he could improve further with a more demanding test. 117
Kings Creek got off the mark at the fourth time of asking, ninth under both codes, when winning at Catterick last month. Formerly with Alan King, his initial performances had been professional without exuding noteworthy class. However, a seventy-seven break appeared to do him a world of good and he ran out a comfortable winner. His jumping was not as clean here as while he was fine over the first four flights, he was close to the fifth and sixth, untidy at the next, steady and low at two out, and untidy again at the last. The immediate impression is that he underperformed here. However, despite less than fluent hurdling, which has previously been compromised by racing at speed, the time, collateral form and weights indicate that this was a new career best. Evidently, for all that Kings Creek is a professional and consistent type, he probably needs kinder conditions and lesser company to be seen to full effect. 120
Red Missile appeared in Triumph lists at 66/1 prior to his hurdles bow at Perth where he was a fairly disappointing third in a moderate company. He went to Musselburgh the following month to fill the same position, albeit in stronger company. His jumping improved between those outings and though he made three consecutive errors at the fifth, sixth and seventh, he still emerged with some credit in this regard. He had led on his previous jumps outings but opted to track the leaders here which while not eliminating his keenness, helped him to settle better. He was outpaced on the turn for home and was never able to make inroads from there, but stayed on nevertheless and was fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. Red Missile is edging closer to his flat form with each outing and with maturity and a spin around a more demanding circuit, his unchanged rating of 106 could look very generous. 112
Go Bob Go finished second at Lingfield off 59 on his penultimate outing on the flat in a race which looks stronger in hindsight. Leaving Eve Johnson Houghton for 10,000 guineas, Go Bob Go joined a yard which is not as well stocked as others and this was reflected in his pre race drift from 33/1 to 100/1. He was keen early, never emerged from mid division and was ultimately beaten by just over twenty-two lengths. Notwithstanding, he jumped reasonably well as he was only slightly untidy over a couple of early jumps and slow to get away from three out. Go Bob Go is unlikely to challenge the principles should their rivalries be renewed. Nevertheless, there is no reason why he can not match and surpass his flat performances. 97
Kiss My Face was second on each of his bumper outings and was well supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Catterick. However, despite his talented trainer and sire, his inexperience resulted in some very untidy jumps and this performance marked a further regression. Getting in close to the first two, he was long and skewed over the third and would jump to his left, sometimes wildly, at each flight in the back straight. He was slow and untidy over his remaining jumps and was never able to leave the rear of the field. Curiously, his jumping to the left only occurred at the hurdles along the back and while it is possible that he will be helped by going left handed, this could have been a trait specific to Musselburgh. The more pressing concern is his maturity and until this is resolved, Kiss My Face does not inspire much confidence at this juncture. 90
Ajax Tavern cost connections 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale following a seven race flat career with Richard Hannon which resulted in a win, two places, and a rating of 78. Though he never ran beyond a mile and is from a family of sprinters, he was backed from 18/1 in the morning to 12/1 at the off. However, his jumping was substandard throughout with a litany of errors including skewing at the first, being big and untidy at the second, trailing his hind legs through the fourth and steadying into the fifth. His round was completed with tired jumps and he finished tailed off. Early keenness exacerbated the stamina concerns and it is difficult to envisage him replicating his flat ability over hurdles. 64
Gypsy Traveller is a stablemate of Go Bob Go, but his flat exploits were moderate and he was withdrawn for unruly behaviour as often as he actually raced. He was completely unfancied here and played up at the start. After jumping very moderately in the rear throughout, he finished tailed off. 31
Poetica 2/1/2021 Cork 2m Maiden Hurdle
Poetica's first two runs over hurdles could be ignored as her saddle slipped at Cork, and he was hampered and unseated early on at Leopardstown. Starting at 125/1, she was in the rear throughout, was very steady and slow at all of the hurdles where she was picked up by the camera, and finished seventy-three lengths last of seventeen. 34
SANDOWN 2nd January
Preview review
The award of strong prospects to Warranty was partially an attempt to be clever, partially a consideration of the below average performances of odds-on favourites in juvenile hurdles at Sandown and the suitability of the race for Warranty. Nevertheless, Warranty traded at 2.12 in-running having opened at 14/1, and the odds-on favourite went traded at 5.1 during the race so the ambition was not entirely misplaced. While the strong prospect was surpassed by the reasonable ones in the correct order, the three finished clear of the other pair whose chances were moderate/negligible.
Race review
This contest is traditionally one of the lesser juvenile hurdles held at Sandown, and while a few came carrying some potential, it was not an especially compelling affair. Nevertheless, the winner confirmed his debut promise and the runner-up ran well in unsuitable conditions. The winning time was over ten seconds slower than in the Tolworth, and over six slower than the concluding handicap. However, all this really informs is that the early pace was very moderate as the first half of the race was ran at a comparative crawl. Though the first three were guilty of some untidy jumps, the overall standard of hurdling was perfectly acceptable and the first two especially look better than average.
Hudson de Grugy is notably related to the yard's Sire de Grugy, but has plenty of other winners closer on the damline. After winning an AQPS bumper on the last of his four runs in France, he belied a pre-race drift to finish a creditable second on his jumps bow at this venue last month. Though novicey at several hurdles, he was better when given instruction from the rider and it was a similar case here. Getting in close to the third and fifth, he was much better when ridden into the final three flights even if he pecked slightly on landing at the last. Leading from the start at a steady tempo, he was very briefly headed approaching the penultimate flight. However, after taking the time to organise himself, he stayed on strongly up the hill and had the best part of three lengths in hand passing the post. His bare achievements to this point amount to not much above average. Nevertheless, as he still has plenty to learn about racing, it can be assumed that he can progress further and develop into a nice type in the long term. 115
Hystery Bere ran with credit on his first three completed starts in France before winning at Le Lion-d'Angers back in July. Making his British debut in a first time tongue tie following a break of 157 days, he was slightly untidy over the first couple of flights and got in close to the sixth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was neat more often than not and was slightly baulked on landing after the winner crossed his path. Though he was beaten entirely on merit, this was still a promising introduction and he may be seen in an even better light on a sounder surface. 118
Warranty won a maiden handicap at Beverly on his final flat start which has worked out well, and was supported in the market ahead of his hurdles debut at Wetherby. However, a series of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffled back through the field and he was never able to reach a challenging position. His attempt at redemption was curtailed at Kempton as he was carried out after just two jumps, but he jumped the first hurdle well and the race conditions here appeared to look suitable. The slow early gallop compromised his jumping, but it was never disastrous and it improve as the tempo increased. Racing wide and tracking the leaders, he moved menacingly turning into the straight and traded close to evens before finding himself outpaced by the front pair. Nevertheless, he finished within eight lengths of the winner and eighteen lengths clear of the others and the performance marks a new career best in either discipline. 107
Cloud Thunder was a fair maiden on the flat, but was pitched in at the deep end on his hurdles bow at Doncaster where he failed to convince in his attitude or aptitude. He ran out at the paddock bend at Kempton over the festive period, but went from 16/1 to 11/2 in the market to redeem himself here. However, while he settled quite quickly and passed the paddock bend without any fuss, his jumping still left plenty to be desired as he was steady and overly cautious over the first three, got in close to the next two, and was steady and slow over the penultimate flight. Slightly detached for most of the contest, he managed to run into fourth up the straight, but never threatened to look competitive. Although this is his best hurdles performance to date, it still leaves him way short of his flat ability and there is work to be done before he can be competitive. 89
Letter At Dawn finished down the field on his sole flat outing at the Curragh in early November, and received only mild support in the morning to fare better on his hurdles bow. Held up in touch, he gave his hurdles plenty of air and was untidy in the closing stages where he faded tamely. There is plenty of time for him to develop, although the foundation is quite low at this juncture. 74
State Crown 3/1/2021 Plumpton 2m Handicap Hurdle (116)
State Crown finished runner-up over hurdles twice from as many starts since joining Evan Williams, and was fairly treated in the weights ahead of his handicap debut. The ground was likely softer than ideal and he drifted from 11/8 in the morning, to 11/4 at flagfall. His jumping had given no cause for trepidation on his previous outings, but he was steady and close to the second, close again at the third, and made a blunder at the sixth. Notwithstanding, he was better at those where he was ridden into the approach. Fairly keen in the early stages and racing prominently throughout, he went into the lead midway through the back straight. However, he was headed on the turn for home and would weaken from thereon in to finish a nine length third of six finishers. He was far from disgraced on this outing, and his unchanged mark is still workable on his best form. Nevertheless, he will likely appreciate a return to better ground. 109
Crassus 3/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (119)
Crassus has performed very creditably during his hurdling career to date, and came into this contest on a very fair handicap mark. However, his chances were heavily compromised by what can be fairly described as unsuitable. While Crassus habitually jumps and travels well, he was restrained in the early stages to an inappropriate degree. A point illustrated by the first eight being covered by just over seven lengths, and the winning time being the slowest jumps race on the card by seconds per furlong against the standard. The rider also had a tendency to pull on the approach which resulted in Crassus getting too close to the third, and losing momentum at the last where he second guessed himself and hopped through the flight before landing awkwardly. By contrast, his being ridden into the last at Limerick was rewarded with a fine leap which put the seal on the race. Furthermore, Crassus had shown an aversion to the whip and though he lengthened nicely and established a lead between the final two prior to the last flight error, his ride on the run-in consisted of being pulled with one hand and whipped with the other which caused his head to go up and his stride to shorten. This is in no way a commentary on the rider's overall ability as a horseperson and certainly not a denigration of the human being in the saddle. However, assuming the winning plot horse did not have several additional lengths to spare, this riding performance very likely made the difference between victory and defeat. A rise of two pounds is not ideal for Crassus, but his best form is still superior to the tune of a few pounds so it is hoped that this experience has not eroded any of that edge. 119
Rock Chica 3/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (108)
Rock Chica enjoyed the conditions when winning her second hurdles outing at Tipperary, and was outclassed in better company on her next two starts. The ground will have suited here, but her mark was fairly harsh based on her achievements. Usually a reasonable jumper, apart from getting close to the first and low at the last, she put in another fair round. Her mark remains unchanged however which will keep life difficult unless she either improves or finds a weak enough contest. 102
Bachelors Hall
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Chepstow's Finale card looks quite likely to go ahead so the preview for that race will likely be up at some point today. If the meeting is abandoned then at least I will have some templates prepared for when the horses next appear. For now, the Kempton preview.
Kempton hosts its third juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow, and while it is routinely above average in the grand scheme, it has generally not been amongst the strongest held at the Sunbury venue in recent years. Apart from when the Lanzarote was held at Carlisle in 2006, and frozen off in 2009, this juvenile has been a fixture on the card since 2002. Spectroscope, fourth in the 2003 renewal, would win that season's Triumph while the following year, Cherub took this contest ahead of landing the Grade One at Punchestown. L'Unique won this and the Anniversary in 2013, but the most prominent recent participant would be Redicean who was successful in both this and the Adonis in 2018. The latest edition could be a maiden if Bannister runs in the rescheduled Finale Hurdle, but it would still feature some interesting types including Kentucky Hardboot and Tinnahalla who renew their rivalry from Newbury, and three pricey flat recruits in More Than A Prince, Sage Advice and Table Mountain. Though a fair and flat right-handed circuit not stiff in nature, Kempton's winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.19 mean, are in the lowest third of racecourses which emphasises its class demands. The clear round rate of 96.74% is fairer than average and the 97.78% rate for hurdling debutants makes it one of the most straightforward in the country. The low median SP and above average record of odd-on favourites also testify to the venue's reliable nature. The going is currently riding as soft, good to soft in places, and there is no rain forecast in the meantime.
Bannister bg T George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j5-1-2 (132) 114 125
Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) 0.5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bannister-1
Starting his hurdling career earlier than most, Bannister ran with some credit at Stratford and Market Rasen in the summer before scoring at Southwell when left well clear in an attritional contest in early September. Since then, he competed in a pair of contests in France, finishing second at Compiegne and fifth at Auteuil when last seen in October. On both instances, he ran keenly and quickly established a clear lead. At Compiegne, he began to tire leaving the back, but while he was headed inside the final furlong, he still battled back bravely and was held by only a neck. The first three pulled well clear and winner Martator capped his campaign with a three length third in a course and distance Groupe III. Bannister's performance at Auteuil saw him employ similar tactics and though he steadied at the third and tenth while trailing his hind legs through the fourth, he jumped the remaining eight flights very neatly. Caught at the final flight, he was a spent force and weakened quickly, losing fourth at the line and beaten eight lengths. The winner has not been seen since, the runner-up competed in a pair of listed races before winning a Cagnes-Sur-Mer Chase, and the third and fourth have valeurs of 58 and 57 respectively. Though measuring this performance is not an exact science, a rating in the mid 120s looks appropriate. Bannister brings the strongest hurdling form to this contest and is a very good hurdler at best. However, the yard is not in good form at the moment and the eighty-four day absence might exacerbate his habitual keenness.
Kentucky Hardboot chg Mohamed Moubarak f11-1-2 (62) 66 j3-0-3 (118) 110 116
Starspangledbanner Danehill Dancer{14-c}(3.00) 2/1 Persistent 2nd Handicap Hurdle (123), Galway 2017
While Kentucky Hardboot won on his seasonal reappearance back in June, this came in a seven furlong Yarmouth handicap off 55 and his five subsequent outings saw him fail to match that effort on three occasions, and refuse to enter the stalls on the other two. Nevertheless, he was backed from 28/1 in the morning to 12/1 at the off ahead of his hurdling debut at this course and distance in October and while assisted by the winner's waywardness, he still finished within half a length and was upwards of fifteen lengths clear of two subsequent winners. He failed to match that effort next time against older horses at Huntingdon, but posted a new career best at Newbury last month when splitting useful recruits Goodbye Stranger and Leylak. There he hurdled quite well, if somewhat cautious, and it emerged afterwards that he lost his near-fore shoe which demonstrates his courage and perhaps explains his jumping and drift to the right on the run-in. Kentucky Hardboot should appreciate the return to Kempton and as the ground also looks suitable, his prospects are not readily dismissed.
More Than A Prince bg Olly Murphy f10-1-0 (70) 79
Oasis Dream (Galileo){20-a}(0.93) 3/1 Currahee 1st Handicap Hurdle (104), Cartmel 2009
Olly Murphy has yet to send a juvenile hurdler to Kempton, but is set to saddle two tomorrow. More Than A Prince had five runs as a two-year-old which culminated with a win in a Brighton nursery off 73. However, while not disgraced on his second outing this year, he has since finished closer to last than first in five starts including his latest three for Richard Hughes. He switched yards following a 58,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in July and now has his attention turned to hurdling with Olly Murphy. Oasis Dream has just a 2.9% strike rate in the division and though Olly Murphy has a respectable first time out record, he has not had a winner from his last twenty-six in all races. Furthermore, More Than A Prince looks a suspect stayer and has been tried in different headgear on his last two outings to no avail.
Ray's The One bg Gary Moore f6-0-3 (68) 72
Mount Nelson (Bob Back){5-e}(1.50) 0.5 Barwick 1st Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2016
Thrice placed in six outings on the flat, Ray's The One's two seconds in July came behind Sly Minx in a twelve furlong Catterick maiden, and Tamaris in a fourteen furlong Wolverhampton handicap off 70. Incidentally, each of those horses has since ran in juvenile hurdles, with the latter twice finishing third in ordinary company for Gary Moore. Horses formerly trained by Michael Bell have a healthy 31.58% winners to runners rate in the sphere, although none of the eleven who fetched less than 10,000 guineas at auction were able to win or post an RPR exceeding 108 during their initial hurdling campaigns. Ray's The One joined Gary Moore for 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale and is now in the hands of a trainer with a solid record in the division who has had three winners from six similarly priced horses. However, his record with juvenile hurdlers at Kempton reads as just one win from thirty-six since 2008/09. Sire Mount Nelson has had two winning juveniles from sixteen, which is a below average record, but the dam produced Barwick (Beat Hollow) to win a Worcester maiden, and the decent Father Time appears at 3/1 on the damline. Though he is an habitual front-runner who is likely to stay the trip, Ray's The One has been prone to hanging left which will not help him around Kempton.
Sage Advice bg Dr Richard Newland f6-1-3 (79) 85
Make Believe (Danehill Dancer){16-g}(1.15) 2/1 Lochalsh 1st Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2015
Joseph G Murphy has supplied five horses to the division since 2008/09, the most recent being the top class Mr Adjudicator. The progressive Sage Advice is set to be the latest recruit, with his six race flat career culminating with success in a seventeen runner Cork Maiden, and a third in a Tipperary handicap off 80 in October. Though drenched in sweat and running very green, he was able to run down the long time leader at Cork, with the next three being subsequent winners. Green and sweaty once again at Tipperary, he was not as effective in the finish, but still kept on into third without threatening the leaders. Fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, he joins a Dr Richard Newland yard with the strongest winners to runners ratio in this field. The yard has had a winner this term in Orchestral Rain, although the even more expensive Indigo Lake could only manage a fourth placed finish on his hurdles debut at Catterick, and the stable's juveniles invariably improve with the benefit of experience. Make Believe's first crop of juveniles can already count a winner and a couple of placed horses, and the damline includes maiden hurdle winner Lockalsh (2/1) and the useful Father Sky (3/1). Sage Advice has a largely positive profile for a new recruit, although his temperament and the fact that he had a wind operation shortly after moving home are not ideal.
Son Of Oz chg Robert Stephens j1-0-0 (-) 66 65
Australia (Monsun){2-n}(0.49) 0.5 Normal Norman 1st Handicap Hurdle (120), Musselburgh 2019
Though a son of Australia and relative of several capable hurdlers, Son Of Oz fetched only 3,000 guineas as a yearling and was unfancied ahead of his racecourse debut in a Warwick juvenile last month. Always in the rear, his slow and cautious jumping evolved into slow and untidy jumping, and he finished the race last of nine. Trainer Robert Stephens saddled Beltor to win the Adonis Hurdle here in 2015, but Son Of Oz lacks any of the aforementioned's credentials.
Tinnahalla bg Olly Murphy f7-0-4 (75) 79 j1-0-0 (-) 103 107
Starspangledbanner (Sadler's Wells){1-s}(0.64) 2/1 Celestial Halo 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2008
While Tinnahalla failed to win in seven starts on the flat for Jamie Osborne, his efforts in three novices stakes at Lingfield, Ripon and Nottingham justified his rating of 75. The pedigree is a very interesting one for a recruit to the division as along with Starspangledbanner showing himself to be competent in this regard, Tinnahalla is a half-brother to Thomas Hobson and Drifter as well as being out of a just over half-sister to Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo. There were concerns over his inability to settle and while he was not unfancied ahead of his hurdling debut at Newbury, those concerns did manifest in the contest. Though he was not fighting for his head, he did pull himself into a clear lead passing the stands. His jumping also suffered as he wandered into several of his flights while also getting in close on numerous occasions. He would maintain this lead until the approach to the penultimate flight and while he was readily outpaced by the front three, he was able to preserve an advantage of three lengths over the remainder of the field. It was not a disheartening introduction by any stretch of the imagination and he remains an interesting recruit to the division. Nevertheless, a demonstration of better jumping and settling is required before he inspires significant confidence.
Epsom Dreamer bf Michael Attwater f2-0-0 (-) 36
Raven's Pass (Dalakhani){9-c}(1.00) 3/1 Halla San 2nd Handicap Hurdle (125), Ayr 2009
Beaten by sixty-seven lengths on his racecourse debut at Lingfield in June, Epsom Dreamer bettered that performance with a near twenty length seventh of eight at Kempton in late November. Ravens Pass has a moderate winners to runners rate of 16%, but his improvement rate of 61.11% is more encouraging and fair handicapper Halla San appears at 3/1 on the damline. However, being out of a half-sister to Cracksman, better will have been expected on the flat and the trainer has yet to have a winner in this discipline from four runners.
Table Mountain bf Tom Symonds f7-1-1 (91) 93
Phoenix Reach (Mount Nelson){22-c}(1.00) 2/1 Ranch Hand 1st Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2020
Though he is not one to produce champions, Phoenix Reach is one of the unheralded stallions of recent times. His winners to runners rate of 50% is surpassed only by Poliglote and Soldier Or Fortune for sires with twelve or more juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09. His progeny typically win their races during the summer months which is understandable given that the average official flat rating of such horses is just 56. Table Mountain is unique in this regard as her mark of 91 is twenty-three pounds higher than any other of Phoenix Reach's offspring. Her damline is also intriguing as along with winning novice Ranch Hand, Scorned (3/1), Passing Glance (3/1) and Desert Quest (4/2) are other notable relatives. Running with promise on the second of her first three flat outings, she improved considerably for the step up to two miles when second to Alphabetical at Ascot, with the pair twelve lengths clear of a subsequent triple winner. Travelling well into the race, she took the lead at the distance, but was worn down late on by the winner who was completing a four-timer. She flashed her tail repeatedly up the straight and drifted left close to the finish, although these movements all corresponded to the impact of the whip. Although five pounds out of the handicap, she very comfortably broke her maiden over the same course and distance a fortnight later, travelling comfortably into the race and being pushed out hands and heels to win by nearly five lengths She ran flat when stepped up in grade for the March Stakes at Goodwood, but was beaten by just over ten lengths in a listed race at Ascot where her weakening was exacerbated when the whip was drawn. She left Andrew Balding for 57,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join a Tom Symonds yard with a solid rate of four winners from seventeen in this discipline including stable star Song For Someone. However, three of these winners had gained hurdling experience in France and the other was a French flat recruit who won at the end of April. None of his nine flat recruits trained in Britain has won in the division from thirty-two attempts. Table Mountain is a tremendously curious and intriguing recruit and she was well spoken of in a recent stable tour. However, while it is plausible that she can handle the forecast ground effectively, there are concerns regarding her yard's record with flat recruits and the uncertainty as to how she might be ridden should she find herself under pressure.
Strong prospects
1. Kentucky Hardboot
Reasonable prospects
2. Table Mountain
3. Bannister
Feasible prospects
4. Tinnahalla
5. Sage Advice
Moderate prospects
6. More Than A Prince
7. Ray's The One
Negligible prospects
8. Son Of Oz
9. Epsom Dreamer
Kempton hosts its third juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow, and while it is routinely above average in the grand scheme, it has generally not been amongst the strongest held at the Sunbury venue in recent years. Apart from when the Lanzarote was held at Carlisle in 2006, and frozen off in 2009, this juvenile has been a fixture on the card since 2002. Spectroscope, fourth in the 2003 renewal, would win that season's Triumph while the following year, Cherub took this contest ahead of landing the Grade One at Punchestown. L'Unique won this and the Anniversary in 2013, but the most prominent recent participant would be Redicean who was successful in both this and the Adonis in 2018. The latest edition could be a maiden if Bannister runs in the rescheduled Finale Hurdle, but it would still feature some interesting types including Kentucky Hardboot and Tinnahalla who renew their rivalry from Newbury, and three pricey flat recruits in More Than A Prince, Sage Advice and Table Mountain. Though a fair and flat right-handed circuit not stiff in nature, Kempton's winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.19 mean, are in the lowest third of racecourses which emphasises its class demands. The clear round rate of 96.74% is fairer than average and the 97.78% rate for hurdling debutants makes it one of the most straightforward in the country. The low median SP and above average record of odd-on favourites also testify to the venue's reliable nature. The going is currently riding as soft, good to soft in places, and there is no rain forecast in the meantime.
Bannister bg T George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j5-1-2 (132) 114 125
Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) 0.5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bannister-1
Starting his hurdling career earlier than most, Bannister ran with some credit at Stratford and Market Rasen in the summer before scoring at Southwell when left well clear in an attritional contest in early September. Since then, he competed in a pair of contests in France, finishing second at Compiegne and fifth at Auteuil when last seen in October. On both instances, he ran keenly and quickly established a clear lead. At Compiegne, he began to tire leaving the back, but while he was headed inside the final furlong, he still battled back bravely and was held by only a neck. The first three pulled well clear and winner Martator capped his campaign with a three length third in a course and distance Groupe III. Bannister's performance at Auteuil saw him employ similar tactics and though he steadied at the third and tenth while trailing his hind legs through the fourth, he jumped the remaining eight flights very neatly. Caught at the final flight, he was a spent force and weakened quickly, losing fourth at the line and beaten eight lengths. The winner has not been seen since, the runner-up competed in a pair of listed races before winning a Cagnes-Sur-Mer Chase, and the third and fourth have valeurs of 58 and 57 respectively. Though measuring this performance is not an exact science, a rating in the mid 120s looks appropriate. Bannister brings the strongest hurdling form to this contest and is a very good hurdler at best. However, the yard is not in good form at the moment and the eighty-four day absence might exacerbate his habitual keenness.
Kentucky Hardboot chg Mohamed Moubarak f11-1-2 (62) 66 j3-0-3 (118) 110 116
Starspangledbanner Danehill Dancer{14-c}(3.00) 2/1 Persistent 2nd Handicap Hurdle (123), Galway 2017
While Kentucky Hardboot won on his seasonal reappearance back in June, this came in a seven furlong Yarmouth handicap off 55 and his five subsequent outings saw him fail to match that effort on three occasions, and refuse to enter the stalls on the other two. Nevertheless, he was backed from 28/1 in the morning to 12/1 at the off ahead of his hurdling debut at this course and distance in October and while assisted by the winner's waywardness, he still finished within half a length and was upwards of fifteen lengths clear of two subsequent winners. He failed to match that effort next time against older horses at Huntingdon, but posted a new career best at Newbury last month when splitting useful recruits Goodbye Stranger and Leylak. There he hurdled quite well, if somewhat cautious, and it emerged afterwards that he lost his near-fore shoe which demonstrates his courage and perhaps explains his jumping and drift to the right on the run-in. Kentucky Hardboot should appreciate the return to Kempton and as the ground also looks suitable, his prospects are not readily dismissed.
More Than A Prince bg Olly Murphy f10-1-0 (70) 79
Oasis Dream (Galileo){20-a}(0.93) 3/1 Currahee 1st Handicap Hurdle (104), Cartmel 2009
Olly Murphy has yet to send a juvenile hurdler to Kempton, but is set to saddle two tomorrow. More Than A Prince had five runs as a two-year-old which culminated with a win in a Brighton nursery off 73. However, while not disgraced on his second outing this year, he has since finished closer to last than first in five starts including his latest three for Richard Hughes. He switched yards following a 58,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in July and now has his attention turned to hurdling with Olly Murphy. Oasis Dream has just a 2.9% strike rate in the division and though Olly Murphy has a respectable first time out record, he has not had a winner from his last twenty-six in all races. Furthermore, More Than A Prince looks a suspect stayer and has been tried in different headgear on his last two outings to no avail.
Ray's The One bg Gary Moore f6-0-3 (68) 72
Mount Nelson (Bob Back){5-e}(1.50) 0.5 Barwick 1st Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2016
Thrice placed in six outings on the flat, Ray's The One's two seconds in July came behind Sly Minx in a twelve furlong Catterick maiden, and Tamaris in a fourteen furlong Wolverhampton handicap off 70. Incidentally, each of those horses has since ran in juvenile hurdles, with the latter twice finishing third in ordinary company for Gary Moore. Horses formerly trained by Michael Bell have a healthy 31.58% winners to runners rate in the sphere, although none of the eleven who fetched less than 10,000 guineas at auction were able to win or post an RPR exceeding 108 during their initial hurdling campaigns. Ray's The One joined Gary Moore for 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale and is now in the hands of a trainer with a solid record in the division who has had three winners from six similarly priced horses. However, his record with juvenile hurdlers at Kempton reads as just one win from thirty-six since 2008/09. Sire Mount Nelson has had two winning juveniles from sixteen, which is a below average record, but the dam produced Barwick (Beat Hollow) to win a Worcester maiden, and the decent Father Time appears at 3/1 on the damline. Though he is an habitual front-runner who is likely to stay the trip, Ray's The One has been prone to hanging left which will not help him around Kempton.
Sage Advice bg Dr Richard Newland f6-1-3 (79) 85
Make Believe (Danehill Dancer){16-g}(1.15) 2/1 Lochalsh 1st Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2015
Joseph G Murphy has supplied five horses to the division since 2008/09, the most recent being the top class Mr Adjudicator. The progressive Sage Advice is set to be the latest recruit, with his six race flat career culminating with success in a seventeen runner Cork Maiden, and a third in a Tipperary handicap off 80 in October. Though drenched in sweat and running very green, he was able to run down the long time leader at Cork, with the next three being subsequent winners. Green and sweaty once again at Tipperary, he was not as effective in the finish, but still kept on into third without threatening the leaders. Fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, he joins a Dr Richard Newland yard with the strongest winners to runners ratio in this field. The yard has had a winner this term in Orchestral Rain, although the even more expensive Indigo Lake could only manage a fourth placed finish on his hurdles debut at Catterick, and the stable's juveniles invariably improve with the benefit of experience. Make Believe's first crop of juveniles can already count a winner and a couple of placed horses, and the damline includes maiden hurdle winner Lockalsh (2/1) and the useful Father Sky (3/1). Sage Advice has a largely positive profile for a new recruit, although his temperament and the fact that he had a wind operation shortly after moving home are not ideal.
Son Of Oz chg Robert Stephens j1-0-0 (-) 66 65
Australia (Monsun){2-n}(0.49) 0.5 Normal Norman 1st Handicap Hurdle (120), Musselburgh 2019
Though a son of Australia and relative of several capable hurdlers, Son Of Oz fetched only 3,000 guineas as a yearling and was unfancied ahead of his racecourse debut in a Warwick juvenile last month. Always in the rear, his slow and cautious jumping evolved into slow and untidy jumping, and he finished the race last of nine. Trainer Robert Stephens saddled Beltor to win the Adonis Hurdle here in 2015, but Son Of Oz lacks any of the aforementioned's credentials.
Tinnahalla bg Olly Murphy f7-0-4 (75) 79 j1-0-0 (-) 103 107
Starspangledbanner (Sadler's Wells){1-s}(0.64) 2/1 Celestial Halo 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2008
While Tinnahalla failed to win in seven starts on the flat for Jamie Osborne, his efforts in three novices stakes at Lingfield, Ripon and Nottingham justified his rating of 75. The pedigree is a very interesting one for a recruit to the division as along with Starspangledbanner showing himself to be competent in this regard, Tinnahalla is a half-brother to Thomas Hobson and Drifter as well as being out of a just over half-sister to Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo. There were concerns over his inability to settle and while he was not unfancied ahead of his hurdling debut at Newbury, those concerns did manifest in the contest. Though he was not fighting for his head, he did pull himself into a clear lead passing the stands. His jumping also suffered as he wandered into several of his flights while also getting in close on numerous occasions. He would maintain this lead until the approach to the penultimate flight and while he was readily outpaced by the front three, he was able to preserve an advantage of three lengths over the remainder of the field. It was not a disheartening introduction by any stretch of the imagination and he remains an interesting recruit to the division. Nevertheless, a demonstration of better jumping and settling is required before he inspires significant confidence.
Epsom Dreamer bf Michael Attwater f2-0-0 (-) 36
Raven's Pass (Dalakhani){9-c}(1.00) 3/1 Halla San 2nd Handicap Hurdle (125), Ayr 2009
Beaten by sixty-seven lengths on his racecourse debut at Lingfield in June, Epsom Dreamer bettered that performance with a near twenty length seventh of eight at Kempton in late November. Ravens Pass has a moderate winners to runners rate of 16%, but his improvement rate of 61.11% is more encouraging and fair handicapper Halla San appears at 3/1 on the damline. However, being out of a half-sister to Cracksman, better will have been expected on the flat and the trainer has yet to have a winner in this discipline from four runners.
Table Mountain bf Tom Symonds f7-1-1 (91) 93
Phoenix Reach (Mount Nelson){22-c}(1.00) 2/1 Ranch Hand 1st Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2020
Though he is not one to produce champions, Phoenix Reach is one of the unheralded stallions of recent times. His winners to runners rate of 50% is surpassed only by Poliglote and Soldier Or Fortune for sires with twelve or more juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09. His progeny typically win their races during the summer months which is understandable given that the average official flat rating of such horses is just 56. Table Mountain is unique in this regard as her mark of 91 is twenty-three pounds higher than any other of Phoenix Reach's offspring. Her damline is also intriguing as along with winning novice Ranch Hand, Scorned (3/1), Passing Glance (3/1) and Desert Quest (4/2) are other notable relatives. Running with promise on the second of her first three flat outings, she improved considerably for the step up to two miles when second to Alphabetical at Ascot, with the pair twelve lengths clear of a subsequent triple winner. Travelling well into the race, she took the lead at the distance, but was worn down late on by the winner who was completing a four-timer. She flashed her tail repeatedly up the straight and drifted left close to the finish, although these movements all corresponded to the impact of the whip. Although five pounds out of the handicap, she very comfortably broke her maiden over the same course and distance a fortnight later, travelling comfortably into the race and being pushed out hands and heels to win by nearly five lengths She ran flat when stepped up in grade for the March Stakes at Goodwood, but was beaten by just over ten lengths in a listed race at Ascot where her weakening was exacerbated when the whip was drawn. She left Andrew Balding for 57,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join a Tom Symonds yard with a solid rate of four winners from seventeen in this discipline including stable star Song For Someone. However, three of these winners had gained hurdling experience in France and the other was a French flat recruit who won at the end of April. None of his nine flat recruits trained in Britain has won in the division from thirty-two attempts. Table Mountain is a tremendously curious and intriguing recruit and she was well spoken of in a recent stable tour. However, while it is plausible that she can handle the forecast ground effectively, there are concerns regarding her yard's record with flat recruits and the uncertainty as to how she might be ridden should she find herself under pressure.
Strong prospects
1. Kentucky Hardboot
Reasonable prospects
2. Table Mountain
3. Bannister
Feasible prospects
4. Tinnahalla
5. Sage Advice
Moderate prospects
6. More Than A Prince
7. Ray's The One
Negligible prospects
8. Son Of Oz
9. Epsom Dreamer
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With Chepstow's card looking likely to be given the go ahead, the juvenile division's first Grade 1 of the season is finally upon us. Since 2005, the Finale Hurdle has produced two Triumph Hurdle winners in Defi du Seuil and Countrywide Flame, four runners-up in Kentucky Hyden, Walkon, Franchoek and Fair Along, and last season's winner Allmankind would place third at the festival later in the campaign. We Have A Dream won Aintree's Grade One in 2018, and other stars to emerge during this time period include Bristol de Mai, Reve de Sivola and Twist Magic. Earlier editions have been graced by the likes of Bilboa, Bradbury Star, Crystal Spirit, Jair du Cochet, Kadastrof, Mysilv, Mister Banjo, Oh So Risky and Royal Derbi. With the exception of Jair du Cochet who was something very special, it will have been speculative at the time to imagine that most of the aforementioned would achieve the heights that they did. Nevertheless, while this season's edition looks a good quality affair, it does appear to be lacking somewhat. The best British form on offer comes from Adagio who was readily put in his place by Duffle Coat at Cheltenham, and the Irish crop looks decidedly stronger at this juncture. Nevertheless, with the exception of Monmiral and possibly the undefeated pair of Heross du Seuil and Good Ball who each ran recently, this is about as strong a field that could have been assembled at this stage of the season. With the Welsh National being one of the most gruelling races on the calendar, it is no surprise that Chepstow's average winning DIs for juveniles of 0.83 median, 1.13 mean, are among the lowest in the country. With the winners of this race taken in isolation, those figures drop to 0.80 and 0.93 which makes the race quite exceptional. The going is currently forecast to be heavy and with freezing temperatures expected overnight, the moisture in the ground will not be evaporating. The clear round rate of 96.28% is broadly average, and the high odds-on strike rate and low median SP make it a reliable enough racecourse.
Triumph Hurdle
Nassalam 14/1
Adagio 20/1
Houx Gris 25/1
Elham Valley 50/1
Adagio bg David Pipe f3-1-2 GAG 39.5 (87) 81 j3-2-1 (136) 122 127
Wiener Walzer (Hernando){9-e}(0.73) 3/3 Labaik 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/adagio-1
Horses bought out of French flat Claimers have a fair winners to runners ratio of 21.43%, although when accounting for those costing upwards of €21,000, that rate increases to 50% with six of the twelve since 2008/09 finding success. That record has been bolstered this season due to the wins of Fergal O'Brien's Volkovka, and David Pipe's Adagio. Following two outings as a two-year-old, his first run for the Pavel Vovcenko stable saw him run out a convincing eight length winner of a twelve furlong Clairefontaine claimer under Christophe Soumillon. The form of that race has worked out fairly moderately, but such was his superiority, a rating in the early-mid eighties would be appropriate.Though he was publicly offered for sale after joining David Pipe for €25,555, he ended up with high profile owners of the yard and the relative of recently lost Labaik was a comfortable debutant winner at Warwick in early November. The form of that race is much of a muchness, but Adagio overcame some sloppy jumping to run out a convincing seven and a half length winner on ground that was probably firm enough. He was out eight days later in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham where he was a steady third in the market. Settling in midfield, he still lacked fluency on numerous occasions and though he moved into the lead turning for home, he would be passed at the furlong marker and was unable to quicken from there. Finishing five lengths behind Duffle Coat was an improved performance, and he continued that momentum on his return to the venue a month later. Apart from being slightly untidy at the first two, he put in a nice round of jumping on ground which would have been ideal. Held up near the rear, he was still in midfield turning for home before cruising into a prominent position at the distance and jumping into the lead over the last. From there, he ran on strongly, increasing his superiority to nearly five lengths on the line. Given his clear round and ground preference, he was able to run his best race to date. His official rating of 136 is behind only Nassalam whose British form does not yet have the same substance. The ground tomorrow will be the heaviest he has encountered outside of France, but while his pedigree is not inundated with plodders, it is stout enough to suggest he can handle the conditions. Especially given that his Clairefontaine win came on heavy ground. David Pipe has not had a runner in this race since outsider Sinndar's Man in 2014, but Adagio is one of his strongest candidates he has had in a while and with the yard in a good spell of form, Adagio's prospects are very tangible.
Bannister bg Tom George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j5-1-2 (132) 114 124
Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) 0.5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bannister-1
Starting his hurdling career earlier than most, Bannister ran with some credit at Stratford and Market Rasen in the summer before scoring at Southwell when left well clear in an attritional contest in early September. Since then, he competed in a pair of contests in France, finishing second at Compiegne and fifth at Auteuil when last seen in October. On both instances, he ran keenly and quickly established a clear lead. At Compiegne, he began to tire leaving the back, but while he was headed inside the final furlong, he still battled back bravely and was held by only a neck. The first three pulled well clear and winner Martator capped his campaign with a three length third in a course and distance Groupe III. Bannister's performance at Auteuil saw him employ similar tactics and though he steadied at the third and tenth while trailing his hind legs through the fourth, he jumped the remaining eight flights very neatly. Caught at the final flight, he was a spent force and weakened quickly, losing fourth at the line and beaten eight lengths. The winner has not been seen since, the runner-up competed in a pair of listed races before winning a Cagnes-Sur-Mer Chase, and the third and fourth have valeurs of 58 and 57 respectively. Though measuring this performance is not an exact science, a rating in the mid 120s looks appropriate. Bannister brings decent hurdling form to this contest and is a very good hurdler at best. However, the yard is not in good form at the moment and the eighty-four day absence might exacerbate his habitual keenness.
Elham Valley grg Fergal O'Brien f9-2-0 (74) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 116 116
Tin Horse (Peintre Celebre){1-p}(1.33) 2/2 Gardens Of Babylon 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2019
A dual winner on the flat for Andrew Balding, Elham Valley left Kingsclere after winning a seller at Goodwood by thirteen lengths. Though he did not attract any bids afterwards, he still changed ownership and would run twice run for John Gallagher, finishing well held in a pair of soft ground handicaps off 78 and 75. Following a date with a pair of scissors, he joined a Fergal O'Brien yard which has enjoyed a fine season with its juveniles, including winners Naizagai and Volkovka. Though his hurdles debut came in a Sandown contest featuring the highly touted but disappointing Paros, was the subject of sustained support throughout the day, moving from 14/1 in the morning to 11/2 at the off. He was not the most fluent or natural of jumpers as he was big and slow to get away from the first, reached at the third, was slow over the next and met the last wrong, costing him momentum in the process. Fortunately for him, the runner-up was also untidy and he was able to build an advantage on the run-in before being eased close home. It was not a bad performance and he should be able to improve with tidier jumping. Furthermore, runner-up Hudson de Grugy paid the form a compliment when winning at the venue last week. However, this was his tenth run under rules which gives him less scope than most of his rivals.
Houx Gris grg Paul Nicholls b2-1-1 h2-1-1 (-) 110 ?
Gris de Gris (Network){u}(0.33) 3/1 Franco 3rd Prix Robert de Clermont-Tonnerre (G3), Auteuil 1999
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/houx-gris
The bulk of Paul Nicholls' most succesful imports are typically acquired through private transactions, although he will still get horses who pass through the Arqana ring. The most pricey of these was 2016 Adonis Hurdle winner Zubayr at €380,000, while the useful Ptit Zig cost €100,000, and the exciting Sanctuaire was a relative snip at €80,000. Some did prove to be expensive however as Monsiuer Co (€155,000) won just the first of his six races for the yard, Marc Aurele (€180,000) left the yard with a rating of 116, and Al Amaan (€140,000) managed only a third in a Plumpton maiden. Costing €200,000 at the Arqana Deauville Autumn sale, Houx Gris carries hefty expectations. Nevertheless, his four runs for Sylvain Dehez are not without potential. After winning on his racecourse bow in a Cluny AQPS bumper in late June, he was denied by a length and a quarter at Vichy on the first of August while conceding eight kilos. His jumps debut came in an AQPS contest for hurdling debutants where he started at 9/1. Very keen early on, he was bustled on numerous occasions and made errors over the majority of the hurdles. He had settled behind the leaders but lost his position along the back straight, and while he eventually finished third, he was twenty-one lengths behind the winner. A direct form line leaves him behind Oliver Greenall's Herbiers, who was second at Musselburgh last week, but he was successful next time at the same venue in an ordinary conditions event. Though he made a few untidy jumps, it was a much better round than on his debut and after progressing from midfield, he moved into the lead approaching the last from where he battled well despite a high head carriage. The runner-up Homme Public has since joined Oliver Greenall, while the horse who was nearly nine lengths back in fourth has subsequently improved to finish third in a listed race ahead of winning a Pau steeplechase by seven lengths. A precise measure of Houx Gris' accomplishments is difficult to reach given that most of the opposition are unexposed and lightly raced. Nevertheless, the form likely exceeds the RPR of 116 by a good ten pounds. Paul Nicholls has won this twice from seventeen runners, although those two wins came from his last three charges in the contest with Dolos' third splitting the wins of Adrien Du Pont and Quel Destin. He has also introduced four French hurdles recruits in this contest, three of whom, namely Tatabeb, Sang Bleu and Caid Du Berlais, finished second. Gris de Gris has one winner from five in the division, but his record in France is much stronger and along with being a full-brother to a winning French juvenile, the third dam produced four winning jumpers in Declic, Impact, Azure and most notably, the graded class Franco. Houx Gris is something of an unknown quantity, but he ticks most boxes and is the representative of a strong trainer.
Mr Shady grg J S Moore f18-1-5 (63) 72 j2-0-1 (117) 111 117
Elzaam (Definite Article){4-i}(2.00) 3/1 Fontaine Fables 1st Novice Hurdle, Fairyhouse 1996
A veteran of twenty races to date, Mr Shady was able to collect a Lingfield handicap on the flat and his rating of 63 in that sphere is justified. He made an encouraging hurdles debut when fourth of eleven at Ludlow in November and while he started at 80/1 and was still beaten by nearly twenty lengths, the performance broadly matched his flat form. He made errors at half of his jumps, but his trainer's juveniles are not known to fall and he put up a better round next time at Wetherby. Keen in the early stages, he was in the front line throughout the race and after going through the top of the first, he hurdled very well before flattening the first in the straight. He made a blunder at the penultimate flight and was not especially tidy at the last either, but he only lost the lead at the half-furlong marker and still kept on to the line. Despite his vast racing experience, this performance marked a new career best for Mr Shady due to his good hurdling during the bulk of the race. Though he is a tough and consistent sort, he has not shown enough ability to be seriously competitive in this type of contest. Furthermore, Stan Moore's four runners in this contest have failed to reach a better position than Foleys Quest's fifth of six in 1997.
Nassalam chg Gary Moore j3-2-1 (140) 140 126
Dream Well (Shirocco){14-b}(0.80) 0.5 Msassa 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/nassalam
The shortest priced British trained horse in the Triumph Hurdle markets, Nassalam found himself in that position by virtue of two demolition jobs at Fontwell in November and December. To suggest that he beat trees on those two outings does a disservice to the speed of some species as the Moluccan albizia has been documented reaching nearly eleven meters in just over a year. Perhaps the most reliable measure of his ability came on his French debut in a newcomers race at Clairefontaine in the end of June. The winner subsequently took a chase at Fontainebleau in October and another one at Auteuil in December. He is currently rated 143 while the horse who finished third is on 132, although that is a falling mark. Fourth placed Mistersister, who was less than two lengths behind, joined Charlie Mann after winning a Le Lion d'Angers claimer, but was pulled up on his British debut in the Summit Hurdle. Nassalam got big at a couple of the early flights at Clairefontaine and it was the same case on his UK debut at Fontwell. However, he became more fluent as the race progressed and while he was not foot perfect over the last, caution was the prevailing sentiment as his win was under no equine threat. The former inmate of Guillaume Macaire could not have won his race any easier having cruised into the lead turning for home before extending his advantage without being asked to accelerate. Though the runner-up had won in France, he disappointed again at Market Rasen and that is the only real measure for his UK form. He did win the race in a relatively good time, and followed up in an even weaker contest last month. Setting the pace throughout, he jumped left at every flight but was a bit neater than on his debut. He effortlessly drew clear to win by forty-nine lengths although the ineffectiveness of his opposition can not be understated. From a time performance on the ground and an assessment of the sectionals, he performed no better here than on his debut. Nassalam is clearly a useful horse but his latent superiority entitled him to win as he did and his further contraction in the Triumph markets was not justifiable on the basis of this outing alone. Gary Moore has yet to win this contest in ten attempts, with Sussex Ranger coming closest when second in 2018. Nevertheless, the yard has been among the winners recently and Nassalam is very much fits the "could be anything" trope. His overall form profile lacks discernible substance, but it will be exciting to see what he can produce in this company.
Pyramid Place bg Milton Harris f4-0-0 (69) 66 j2-1-1 (104) 97 107
Authorized (Zafonic){20-a}(0.81) 0.5 Jukebox Blues 9th Novices' Hurdle, Kelso 2020
Pyramid Place did not reach the frame in four starts for John Gosden during the winter, but he was a consistent animal who ran to a fair level and subsequently sold for 27,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale. Horses who leave the Gosden yard rarely do well in juvenile hurdles, but with seven months to physically develop, he made a fine start in his new vocation at Lingfield. Keen early and held up in the rear, he had a tendency to jump to his left and like the winner, was none too fluent in the straight. He made slow and steady headway along the back and got to within five lengths of the winner at the last. He did not get away from it quickly and took time to find his stride on the run-in. Ultimately, he only failed by a short head, but given his freshness and lack of fitness or experience, he was entitled to improve and he made good on his promise when winning at Bangor in November. While he started the day at 2/5, he drifted out to 11/10 before starting at evens. He actually drifted out to 8.4 in-running although he never looked beaten at any stage. Tucked in behind the leaders in a slowly run contest, Pyramid Place took a bit of a hold, but it was still less pronounced than it was on his debut. He was always travelling comfortably enough and his jumping was also better than first time out with the only flaws being that he was slightly skewed over the third, fourth and at three out. He did not show an explosive turn of foot to take the lead between the final two flights, but he had a clear advantage by the last and stayed on strongly to the line. He did not have to improve from his debut to win last time, and from a form perspective, this effort leaves him with a lot to find here. Milton Harris saddled Mondul to finish second in the 2003 renewal of this contest, but his only other runner was well beaten at 100/1 in 2011.
Yggdrasil bg Nick Williams j1-0-1 (-) 107 109
Kapgarde (Le Balafre){4-m}(1.67) 0.5 Siruh du Lac 1st Mildmay of Fleet (G3,141), Cheltenham 2019
Named after the home of Ratatoskr, Norse Mythology's only interesting character, Yggdrasil made his racecourse debut at Sandown early last month. Keen early on, he did not attack the initial jumps with any real conviction and got especially close to the fourth. His jumping was tidier from there and he was still in contention at the distance. However, his inexperience became conspicuous as he steadied into the penultimate flight and did not know what to make of Elham Valley squeezing past him. Though readily outpaced by the front pair, he still plugged on to win the battle for third. A Kapgarde half-brother to Siruh du Lac, Acta Est Fabula and Txamanxoia, out of a dual chase winner and closely related to 1995 Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil winner Matchou, Yggdrasil is bred to be a viable prospect in both the short and long term. He was one of two entries for the Williamses in the original iteration of this contest, with stablemate Honneur d'Ajonc (33/1, generally 25/1 for the Triumph) coming close to winning the alternative engagement when falling at the last at Kempton. Nick Williams has won this race twice from eight runners, with Me Voici winning in 2009, and Le Rocher scoring in 2013. He has also sent talented horses to run into third including Coo Star Sivola, and Reve de Sivola. Yggdrasil will still need to find improvement from his debut outing, but he ran with plenty of promise and has considerable scope for a yard that should not be underestimated in this contest.
Strong prospects
1. Yggdrasil
Reasonable prospects
2. Adagio
3. Nassalam
4. Houx Gris
Feasible prospects
5. Bannister
Moderate prospects
6. Elham Valley
Negligible prospects
7. Mr Shady
8. Pyramid Place
Triumph Hurdle
Nassalam 14/1
Adagio 20/1
Houx Gris 25/1
Elham Valley 50/1
Adagio bg David Pipe f3-1-2 GAG 39.5 (87) 81 j3-2-1 (136) 122 127
Wiener Walzer (Hernando){9-e}(0.73) 3/3 Labaik 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/adagio-1
Horses bought out of French flat Claimers have a fair winners to runners ratio of 21.43%, although when accounting for those costing upwards of €21,000, that rate increases to 50% with six of the twelve since 2008/09 finding success. That record has been bolstered this season due to the wins of Fergal O'Brien's Volkovka, and David Pipe's Adagio. Following two outings as a two-year-old, his first run for the Pavel Vovcenko stable saw him run out a convincing eight length winner of a twelve furlong Clairefontaine claimer under Christophe Soumillon. The form of that race has worked out fairly moderately, but such was his superiority, a rating in the early-mid eighties would be appropriate.Though he was publicly offered for sale after joining David Pipe for €25,555, he ended up with high profile owners of the yard and the relative of recently lost Labaik was a comfortable debutant winner at Warwick in early November. The form of that race is much of a muchness, but Adagio overcame some sloppy jumping to run out a convincing seven and a half length winner on ground that was probably firm enough. He was out eight days later in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham where he was a steady third in the market. Settling in midfield, he still lacked fluency on numerous occasions and though he moved into the lead turning for home, he would be passed at the furlong marker and was unable to quicken from there. Finishing five lengths behind Duffle Coat was an improved performance, and he continued that momentum on his return to the venue a month later. Apart from being slightly untidy at the first two, he put in a nice round of jumping on ground which would have been ideal. Held up near the rear, he was still in midfield turning for home before cruising into a prominent position at the distance and jumping into the lead over the last. From there, he ran on strongly, increasing his superiority to nearly five lengths on the line. Given his clear round and ground preference, he was able to run his best race to date. His official rating of 136 is behind only Nassalam whose British form does not yet have the same substance. The ground tomorrow will be the heaviest he has encountered outside of France, but while his pedigree is not inundated with plodders, it is stout enough to suggest he can handle the conditions. Especially given that his Clairefontaine win came on heavy ground. David Pipe has not had a runner in this race since outsider Sinndar's Man in 2014, but Adagio is one of his strongest candidates he has had in a while and with the yard in a good spell of form, Adagio's prospects are very tangible.
Bannister bg Tom George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j5-1-2 (132) 114 124
Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) 0.5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bannister-1
Starting his hurdling career earlier than most, Bannister ran with some credit at Stratford and Market Rasen in the summer before scoring at Southwell when left well clear in an attritional contest in early September. Since then, he competed in a pair of contests in France, finishing second at Compiegne and fifth at Auteuil when last seen in October. On both instances, he ran keenly and quickly established a clear lead. At Compiegne, he began to tire leaving the back, but while he was headed inside the final furlong, he still battled back bravely and was held by only a neck. The first three pulled well clear and winner Martator capped his campaign with a three length third in a course and distance Groupe III. Bannister's performance at Auteuil saw him employ similar tactics and though he steadied at the third and tenth while trailing his hind legs through the fourth, he jumped the remaining eight flights very neatly. Caught at the final flight, he was a spent force and weakened quickly, losing fourth at the line and beaten eight lengths. The winner has not been seen since, the runner-up competed in a pair of listed races before winning a Cagnes-Sur-Mer Chase, and the third and fourth have valeurs of 58 and 57 respectively. Though measuring this performance is not an exact science, a rating in the mid 120s looks appropriate. Bannister brings decent hurdling form to this contest and is a very good hurdler at best. However, the yard is not in good form at the moment and the eighty-four day absence might exacerbate his habitual keenness.
Elham Valley grg Fergal O'Brien f9-2-0 (74) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 116 116
Tin Horse (Peintre Celebre){1-p}(1.33) 2/2 Gardens Of Babylon 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2019
A dual winner on the flat for Andrew Balding, Elham Valley left Kingsclere after winning a seller at Goodwood by thirteen lengths. Though he did not attract any bids afterwards, he still changed ownership and would run twice run for John Gallagher, finishing well held in a pair of soft ground handicaps off 78 and 75. Following a date with a pair of scissors, he joined a Fergal O'Brien yard which has enjoyed a fine season with its juveniles, including winners Naizagai and Volkovka. Though his hurdles debut came in a Sandown contest featuring the highly touted but disappointing Paros, was the subject of sustained support throughout the day, moving from 14/1 in the morning to 11/2 at the off. He was not the most fluent or natural of jumpers as he was big and slow to get away from the first, reached at the third, was slow over the next and met the last wrong, costing him momentum in the process. Fortunately for him, the runner-up was also untidy and he was able to build an advantage on the run-in before being eased close home. It was not a bad performance and he should be able to improve with tidier jumping. Furthermore, runner-up Hudson de Grugy paid the form a compliment when winning at the venue last week. However, this was his tenth run under rules which gives him less scope than most of his rivals.
Houx Gris grg Paul Nicholls b2-1-1 h2-1-1 (-) 110 ?
Gris de Gris (Network){u}(0.33) 3/1 Franco 3rd Prix Robert de Clermont-Tonnerre (G3), Auteuil 1999
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/houx-gris
The bulk of Paul Nicholls' most succesful imports are typically acquired through private transactions, although he will still get horses who pass through the Arqana ring. The most pricey of these was 2016 Adonis Hurdle winner Zubayr at €380,000, while the useful Ptit Zig cost €100,000, and the exciting Sanctuaire was a relative snip at €80,000. Some did prove to be expensive however as Monsiuer Co (€155,000) won just the first of his six races for the yard, Marc Aurele (€180,000) left the yard with a rating of 116, and Al Amaan (€140,000) managed only a third in a Plumpton maiden. Costing €200,000 at the Arqana Deauville Autumn sale, Houx Gris carries hefty expectations. Nevertheless, his four runs for Sylvain Dehez are not without potential. After winning on his racecourse bow in a Cluny AQPS bumper in late June, he was denied by a length and a quarter at Vichy on the first of August while conceding eight kilos. His jumps debut came in an AQPS contest for hurdling debutants where he started at 9/1. Very keen early on, he was bustled on numerous occasions and made errors over the majority of the hurdles. He had settled behind the leaders but lost his position along the back straight, and while he eventually finished third, he was twenty-one lengths behind the winner. A direct form line leaves him behind Oliver Greenall's Herbiers, who was second at Musselburgh last week, but he was successful next time at the same venue in an ordinary conditions event. Though he made a few untidy jumps, it was a much better round than on his debut and after progressing from midfield, he moved into the lead approaching the last from where he battled well despite a high head carriage. The runner-up Homme Public has since joined Oliver Greenall, while the horse who was nearly nine lengths back in fourth has subsequently improved to finish third in a listed race ahead of winning a Pau steeplechase by seven lengths. A precise measure of Houx Gris' accomplishments is difficult to reach given that most of the opposition are unexposed and lightly raced. Nevertheless, the form likely exceeds the RPR of 116 by a good ten pounds. Paul Nicholls has won this twice from seventeen runners, although those two wins came from his last three charges in the contest with Dolos' third splitting the wins of Adrien Du Pont and Quel Destin. He has also introduced four French hurdles recruits in this contest, three of whom, namely Tatabeb, Sang Bleu and Caid Du Berlais, finished second. Gris de Gris has one winner from five in the division, but his record in France is much stronger and along with being a full-brother to a winning French juvenile, the third dam produced four winning jumpers in Declic, Impact, Azure and most notably, the graded class Franco. Houx Gris is something of an unknown quantity, but he ticks most boxes and is the representative of a strong trainer.
Mr Shady grg J S Moore f18-1-5 (63) 72 j2-0-1 (117) 111 117
Elzaam (Definite Article){4-i}(2.00) 3/1 Fontaine Fables 1st Novice Hurdle, Fairyhouse 1996
A veteran of twenty races to date, Mr Shady was able to collect a Lingfield handicap on the flat and his rating of 63 in that sphere is justified. He made an encouraging hurdles debut when fourth of eleven at Ludlow in November and while he started at 80/1 and was still beaten by nearly twenty lengths, the performance broadly matched his flat form. He made errors at half of his jumps, but his trainer's juveniles are not known to fall and he put up a better round next time at Wetherby. Keen in the early stages, he was in the front line throughout the race and after going through the top of the first, he hurdled very well before flattening the first in the straight. He made a blunder at the penultimate flight and was not especially tidy at the last either, but he only lost the lead at the half-furlong marker and still kept on to the line. Despite his vast racing experience, this performance marked a new career best for Mr Shady due to his good hurdling during the bulk of the race. Though he is a tough and consistent sort, he has not shown enough ability to be seriously competitive in this type of contest. Furthermore, Stan Moore's four runners in this contest have failed to reach a better position than Foleys Quest's fifth of six in 1997.
Nassalam chg Gary Moore j3-2-1 (140) 140 126
Dream Well (Shirocco){14-b}(0.80) 0.5 Msassa 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/nassalam
The shortest priced British trained horse in the Triumph Hurdle markets, Nassalam found himself in that position by virtue of two demolition jobs at Fontwell in November and December. To suggest that he beat trees on those two outings does a disservice to the speed of some species as the Moluccan albizia has been documented reaching nearly eleven meters in just over a year. Perhaps the most reliable measure of his ability came on his French debut in a newcomers race at Clairefontaine in the end of June. The winner subsequently took a chase at Fontainebleau in October and another one at Auteuil in December. He is currently rated 143 while the horse who finished third is on 132, although that is a falling mark. Fourth placed Mistersister, who was less than two lengths behind, joined Charlie Mann after winning a Le Lion d'Angers claimer, but was pulled up on his British debut in the Summit Hurdle. Nassalam got big at a couple of the early flights at Clairefontaine and it was the same case on his UK debut at Fontwell. However, he became more fluent as the race progressed and while he was not foot perfect over the last, caution was the prevailing sentiment as his win was under no equine threat. The former inmate of Guillaume Macaire could not have won his race any easier having cruised into the lead turning for home before extending his advantage without being asked to accelerate. Though the runner-up had won in France, he disappointed again at Market Rasen and that is the only real measure for his UK form. He did win the race in a relatively good time, and followed up in an even weaker contest last month. Setting the pace throughout, he jumped left at every flight but was a bit neater than on his debut. He effortlessly drew clear to win by forty-nine lengths although the ineffectiveness of his opposition can not be understated. From a time performance on the ground and an assessment of the sectionals, he performed no better here than on his debut. Nassalam is clearly a useful horse but his latent superiority entitled him to win as he did and his further contraction in the Triumph markets was not justifiable on the basis of this outing alone. Gary Moore has yet to win this contest in ten attempts, with Sussex Ranger coming closest when second in 2018. Nevertheless, the yard has been among the winners recently and Nassalam is very much fits the "could be anything" trope. His overall form profile lacks discernible substance, but it will be exciting to see what he can produce in this company.
Pyramid Place bg Milton Harris f4-0-0 (69) 66 j2-1-1 (104) 97 107
Authorized (Zafonic){20-a}(0.81) 0.5 Jukebox Blues 9th Novices' Hurdle, Kelso 2020
Pyramid Place did not reach the frame in four starts for John Gosden during the winter, but he was a consistent animal who ran to a fair level and subsequently sold for 27,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale. Horses who leave the Gosden yard rarely do well in juvenile hurdles, but with seven months to physically develop, he made a fine start in his new vocation at Lingfield. Keen early and held up in the rear, he had a tendency to jump to his left and like the winner, was none too fluent in the straight. He made slow and steady headway along the back and got to within five lengths of the winner at the last. He did not get away from it quickly and took time to find his stride on the run-in. Ultimately, he only failed by a short head, but given his freshness and lack of fitness or experience, he was entitled to improve and he made good on his promise when winning at Bangor in November. While he started the day at 2/5, he drifted out to 11/10 before starting at evens. He actually drifted out to 8.4 in-running although he never looked beaten at any stage. Tucked in behind the leaders in a slowly run contest, Pyramid Place took a bit of a hold, but it was still less pronounced than it was on his debut. He was always travelling comfortably enough and his jumping was also better than first time out with the only flaws being that he was slightly skewed over the third, fourth and at three out. He did not show an explosive turn of foot to take the lead between the final two flights, but he had a clear advantage by the last and stayed on strongly to the line. He did not have to improve from his debut to win last time, and from a form perspective, this effort leaves him with a lot to find here. Milton Harris saddled Mondul to finish second in the 2003 renewal of this contest, but his only other runner was well beaten at 100/1 in 2011.
Yggdrasil bg Nick Williams j1-0-1 (-) 107 109
Kapgarde (Le Balafre){4-m}(1.67) 0.5 Siruh du Lac 1st Mildmay of Fleet (G3,141), Cheltenham 2019
Named after the home of Ratatoskr, Norse Mythology's only interesting character, Yggdrasil made his racecourse debut at Sandown early last month. Keen early on, he did not attack the initial jumps with any real conviction and got especially close to the fourth. His jumping was tidier from there and he was still in contention at the distance. However, his inexperience became conspicuous as he steadied into the penultimate flight and did not know what to make of Elham Valley squeezing past him. Though readily outpaced by the front pair, he still plugged on to win the battle for third. A Kapgarde half-brother to Siruh du Lac, Acta Est Fabula and Txamanxoia, out of a dual chase winner and closely related to 1995 Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil winner Matchou, Yggdrasil is bred to be a viable prospect in both the short and long term. He was one of two entries for the Williamses in the original iteration of this contest, with stablemate Honneur d'Ajonc (33/1, generally 25/1 for the Triumph) coming close to winning the alternative engagement when falling at the last at Kempton. Nick Williams has won this race twice from eight runners, with Me Voici winning in 2009, and Le Rocher scoring in 2013. He has also sent talented horses to run into third including Coo Star Sivola, and Reve de Sivola. Yggdrasil will still need to find improvement from his debut outing, but he ran with plenty of promise and has considerable scope for a yard that should not be underestimated in this contest.
Strong prospects
1. Yggdrasil
Reasonable prospects
2. Adagio
3. Nassalam
4. Houx Gris
Feasible prospects
5. Bannister
Moderate prospects
6. Elham Valley
Negligible prospects
7. Mr Shady
8. Pyramid Place
Beef or Salmon
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Nice form boost for the Irish horses again today, Elliot could have the first 3 home in the Triumph at this rate.
Bachelors Hall
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Very much my sentiments. Good though Adagio is, Duffle Coat was the one who emerged with an enhanced reputation. He might also have another contender in Teahupoo...
Rather than confront the fact that my affection for Ratatoskr completely ballsed up the Finale tricast, I decided to look to the future and go through the horses currently listed in the Triumph markets who have not yet seen a hurdle in public outside of France. Some of these have been assessed earlier in the thread, but for the benefit of those who do not want to go trawling through over 300,000 words of variable quality, I have reposted the profiles with relevant updates.
20/1 Baron Samedi bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f10-5-0 (112) 108
Harbour Watch (Haafhd){1-l}(3.00) 3/1 Creekside 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (123), Ascot 2012
Already written
Since sacrificing his testicles in August for the greater good, Baron Samedi has improved beyond recognition and he recently completed a four-timer at Listowel off a mark thirty-two pounds higher than when when he began his winning sequence. The owners are yet to have a jumps runner and there has been no word that juvenile hurdling is on the radar for the time being. Should connections opt to go down that route then Baron Samedi's pedigree is a reasonable one as a third of his sire's juveniles have been winners, and while Haafhd has yet to have a winner as a damsire, he was useful in the division with his own progeny.
Update
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/baron-samedi
Since this earlier piece, Baron Samedi won the Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris at Longchamp in late October. Run over eleven furlongs on heavy ground, he took up the running at the distance, and battled very gamely to prevail by a head from Mare Australis. The form has not been tested subsequently and it was probably not the strongest Group 2. Nevertheless, the runner-up had taken a listed race on his previous outing, the third was a progressive handicapper and the fourth had filled the same position in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet and was third in the Prix Dollar on her previous outing. Harbour Watch has added another winning juvenile in Overpriced Mixer, although his other four have achieved little. There has still been no word on any imminent hurdling career and he is only quoted by two firms.
25/1 Dawn Rising bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f4-1-1 (-) 107
Galileo (Danehill Dancer){4-k}(0.76) 1/1 Triplicate 2nd Royal Bond Novices Hurde (G1), Fairyhouse 2018
Already written
While there has been no official word on this horse, he was recently treated to a gelding operation as well as entering most of the Triumph lists. Should he make the transition then he would make a most intriguing addition to the division. Along with being related to classic winners Sovereign, West Wind and Balanchine, he is also a full brother to Royal Bond runner up Triplicate and other good jumpers on his damline include Starchitect (2/3), Rio De Janeiro (2/1), Vandas Choice (3/1) and Butler's Cabin (5/4). Finishing last on his debut in the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes last October, Dawn Rising broke his maiden this June at Limerick by twelve lengths from a horse who would win a handicap off 75 next time out. Allowed to travel to Newmarket for the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy, the sweaty Dawn Rising won one battle up the straight against subsequent German Oaks winner Miss Yoda but was a spent force when headed just outside the furlong marker. The winner disappointed next time in the Gordon Stakes but it is still genuine group level form. Galileo is more than capable of siring juvenile hurdlers although his best (Royal Irish Hussar, Bally Glasheen, Outspoken) have been just shy of top class and has a better record as a damsire (Pentland Hills, Hargam, Sir Erec) and similar sentiments can apply to Danehill Dancer who is again an above average damsire without getting top class juveniles through his mares. Dawn Rising would not be the first pattern class horse off the flat to run for Joseph O'Brien in juvenile hurdles and both Landofhopeandglory and Sir Erec achieved success in the sphere. However, there were another three who were also officially rated above 100 who failed to win during their first seasons over hurdles (Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter, Tree Of Knowledge) although Ivanovich Gorbatov can also be included if one counts those trained in his father's name. Overall, while Dawn Rising's profile does not make him a guaranteed success in the division, he certainly has the potential to cause problems for any horse this season.
Update
Dawn Rising has not been out since finishing second at Newmarket in July. While he appears on fourteen books and was shortened by a few firms over christmas, there has still been no public word, he has not appeared in the stable tours, and is still registered with Aiden O'Brien.
33/1 Berkshire Rocco chc A Balding 9-2-4 (116) 117
Sir Percy (Shirocco) {1-c}(0.18) 4/2 Bulwark 7th Pertemps Hurdle (127), Haydock 2009
Already written
A rating of 108 was earned after his finishing second in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. If he runs over juvenile hurdles, only three horses (Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter and Sir Erec - all for Joseph O'Brien) will have brought higher flat rating to the sphere since 2012. While sixty-three horses have gone hurdling after starting with Andrew Balding, some are also sold to race abroad and I have yet to see anything that suggests Berkshire Rocco is being prepped for a hurdles career. That said, if anybody knows otherwise then please let us know.
Update
Berkshire Rocco has since finished fourth in the Great Voltigeur, second in the St Leger, and first in the listed Noel Murless Stakes at Ascot. He has not been sold, he has not been gelded and he is still with Andrew Balding.
33/1 Haut En Couleurs bg W P Mullins j1-1-0 (-) 126
Saint Des Saints (Muhtathir){8-c}(0.60) 1/0 Sanouva 1st Prix Congress (G2), Auteuil 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/haut-en-couleurs
The Prix Pride Of Kildare is a race for hurdling debutants held at Auteuil in early October. Popular chaser Exotic Dancer would be the race's most notorious winner back in 2003. Since then, the winners of the contest have not had a great deal to shout about, with 2012 winner Laristo perhaps faring best when second in the Prix Cambaceres. Given its position on the calender, it is not a prolific source of juvenile hurdlers with Sang Bleu being the only winner to race in the UK when joining Paul Nicholls in 2009. Four other runners have subsequently crossed the channel during the same season, but none since Le Fin Bois in 2013. Other winners did eventually make their way to the UK and Ireland later in their careers, but did not find much success. Breaking the mould in this peculiar year is the latest winner Haut En Couleurs who won the latest renewal by a head. Slightly hampered at the first, wasn't always tidy in what was a messy race and and he had to be ridden into a few. Nevertheless, he was also neat at a few other the others and though he hung left, he got the best of a protracted battle to the line where the front two pulled fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. The runner-up was beaten in a chase at Pau just before Christmas, but the third placed Magic Dream won his next two starts, including the Grade Two Prix Congress steeplechase. Fourth placed Invite Special has shown fair form behind Houx Gris and finished third in a listed hurdle at Auteuil before winning a chase at Pau. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders has yet to send any winning juveniles to the UK or Ireland, and both Paros and Ronde De Nuit have been disappointing this term. Nevertheless, the Leenders family has been responsible for some good types over the years including Clarcam and Politologue. Willie Mullins needs no introduction but the pedigree of Haut en Couleurs is certainly noteworthy. By top stallion Saint des Saints, Haut En Couleurs is out of Prix Congress (a Grade Two for three-year-old Chasers) winner Sanouva who has already produced winning chaser Gentilhomme. Sanouva is a half-sister to two good juveniles in Nicknos, who won the Prix Wild Monarch, and Hippomene who won both of the Grade Ones available to horses in the age group. When something looks as good as this on paper, exercising scepticism is imperative. So the negatives are that the race he won is not prolific, it was ran over eighteen furlongs on heavy ground meaning he is unproven in a race that demands more speed, and he was rather green on his racecourse debut of all things. He could be bred to make a chaser but given the precocity of his damline, and the fact that Saint des Saints' offspring are perfectly capable of performing while young, this might be a stretch. The only realistic concern is that he has only raced once and it is typically unwise to base a reputation around a solitary performance - even if the well beaten third has gone on to be a good horse. Nevertheless, Haut En Couleurs has joined a fine yard, he showed grit and class on his sole outing and his pedigree is exquisite. There is little more one could ask from a once raced prospect and he is a very exciting prospect for this season.
33/1 Tritonic chc A King 9-2-3 (99) 106
Sea The Moon (Selkirk){4-r}(1.13) 4/3 Le Breuil 1st National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2019
Already written
The second Alan King horse on this list, Tritonic would bring a high level of flat form based on his win in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark and finishing runner up in a Royal Ascot handicap. Sire Sea The Moon had a most promising first season as a jumps stallion earning a 43% winners to runners strike rate with 57% of his offspring recording RPRs above 107 including the Grade One winner and Triumph Hurdle third Allmankind. Selkirk's record as a damsire is not quite as exciting although he did produce the Champion Hurdler Sublimity. Owned by the McNeill family, it is more likely than not that he will go hurdling and he would probably make an above average recruit to the game.
Update
Though the topic of some "will he, won't he" speculation, the latest tweet from the owners said he will be trained for one of the better juveniles, and the latest stable tour said that he would be gelded then schooled in January after which he could make his debut in something like the Adonis. The gelding prophesy has been fulfilled, so it now looks to hinge on how he schools. There have been spots of movement and introduction in the Triumph lists so it can be assumed that nothing has been ruled out. On the racecourse, Tritonic has ran four times since Ascot, finishing second in a listed race at Hamilton, sixth in the Geoffrey Freer, second in a Yarmouth handicap off 99, and just under six lengths fourth in the Old Rowley Cup off the same mark. A consistent and capable horse, he seemed more straightforward on his latest start at Newmarket. If he appears this season, it is implied that he has schooled satisfactorily and should not go without attention.
33/1 Tulin bg Paul Nicholls f2-1-0 (-) -
Gleneagles (Cape Cross){1-c}(0.87) 5/2 Bulwark 7th Pertemps Hurdle (127), Haydock 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/tulin
Twice raced for Alessandro & Giuseppe Botti, Tulin's racecourse debut came with a green but staying on fifth at Le Touquet in the middle of June. Run on firm ground over 2700 metres, he finished more than nine and five lengths behind horses subsequently rated roughly 78 and 74. Tulin's managed to score next time out a fortnight later in a 2400 metre maiden on good ground at Lignieres. Fairly green once again, he raced prominently behind the leader on the inside and spent the entirety of the straight attempting to gain ground before officially getting his head in front at the line in a five way photo. While clichés are usually boring and ill-applied, an obese horse's blanket will have been sufficient to encapsulate the finishers. The current valeurs of the other four blanketmates range from 30 (66) to 34 (74.8) and the second and the second (seriously, watch the race) have each won €20,000 handicaps at Fontainebleau and Deauville. The quality of form for the division, but it would not warrant the prices currently on offer. While Cabot Cliffs has got first-season stallion Gleneagles off the mark, Cape Cross has just a 10% winners to runners ratio as a damsire and the distaff side of the pedigree is bereft of jumpers. Paul Nicholls has sourced plenty of recruits from French flat races, though most tend to be rated 80 or above and Tulin has probably not ran to that level. Tommy Silver and Volpone Jelois were probably of a similar standard and they both managed to win as juveniles. Nevertheless, while he has reportedly taken well to jumping, he looks a long way from a Triumph contender on available evidence.
40/1 John Locke Dan Skelton f5-1-3 (85) 91
Mastercraftsman (Beat Hollow){8-h}(1.46) 2/1 Political Intrigue 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Ludlow 2006
Bred and owned by the Juddmonte operation, the ironically named John Locke had been gelded before seeing the racecourse. Withdrawn from the stalls ahead of his intended debut in June, he would finish second in a ten furlong Windsor novice stakes in mid July. He was then second at Lingfield on his next two outings, on the all-weather at the start of the month, and the turf towards the end of the month. Though he was developing a case of seconditis, he did not look discernibly recalcitrant and along with competing in races which worked out well, he was finishing clear of the third on each occasion. John Locke got off the mark at the fourth time of asking in a ten furlong novice stakes at Goodwood in September. Moving to the front approaching the distance, he quickly established a clear advantage and while his lead was being eroded, he was more idling than tiring and had enough in hand at the line. The runner-up won next time before finishing third off 85, the third went one place better at Chelmsford, and the third won his next two races. John Locke disappointed on his latest flat outing, with his rider suggesting that he was unsuited by the soft ground. Former inmates of Ralph Beckett's have a solid winners to runners rate of 32.26%, with five of the six rated 80 or above winning during their juvenile campaigns. Passing through Tattersalls for 75,000 guineas, John Locke joins in Dan Skelton a trainer with a fine record in the division, and an overall strike rate of 30.23% with flat recruits rated 80 plus. Mastercraftsman is one of the most prolific and successful sires in the division, Beat Hollow has a winners to runners rate of 33.33% as a damsire, and the dam is a half-sister to three winning hurdlers. John Locke's flat form is strong for the division and his profile is positive in most regards. He might not want the ground to be too soft, but he would be a very interesting recruit nevertheless.
50/1 Bring On The Night bg W P Mullins f3-2-0 FrF (92.4)
Gleneagles (Dubai Destination){2-d}(0.52) 3/2 Schelem 1st 3yo Hurdle, Dax 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bring-on-the-night-1
Already written
Since the 2008/09 season, Andre Fabre has been the source of twenty-nine juvenile hurdlers in the UK and Ireland. Twelve of those won during their first season over obstacles but while half of them were rated at least 85 on the flat, that class largely fails to translate with Fred Winter placed duo Alexander Severus and Saticon the most successful of such types. Nevertheless, Willie Mullins has a good record with juvenile hurdlers recruited from the French flat. Twelve of the twenty during the time period have been winners including high class sorts Petitie Parisienne, Burning Victory, Diakali, Saldier and Saglawy. Bring On The Night had three runs on the flat and was successful on his latest two starts. His debut came in a Chantilly maiden in early March where he was slow from the start and finished a never nearer eighth of ten. He was better next time however when a clear winner from a strung out field in a twelve furlong Compiegne maiden later that month. The runner-up, his better fancied stablemate on the day, has not won in four subsequent outings but is currently rated 82.5. Two flat winners have come out of that race, albeit in minor races at Clairefontaine and Tours, as well as a winning steeplechaser. Bring On The Night followed up in late May on the all-weather in a Deauville conditions race over 2500 metres. This was a more hard fought success and he finished three-quarters of a length ahead of a horse currently rated 85.8. The second and third have since won small races at Toulouse and Le Touquet. Bring On The Night's rating of 92.4 is rather difficult to justify but he has a good size to him along with a decent attitude. There are not many clues in his sirelines insofar as a hurdling career is concerned as his sire Gleneagles has yet to be tested, although Galileos can make decent sires in the sphere. Dubai Destination has only nine juveniles as a damsire but three of them have been winners including the useful Forth Bridge. The damlines are rather less encouraging however as apart from Schelem (3/2) winning a minor event at Dax, the few close relatives who have tried hurdling have achieved little.
Update
Very little to add. The second and third at Deauville are each rated 36 (79.2) while the better fancied stablemate at Compiegne has dropped a couple of pounds.
50/1 Harmonie Star bf Wille Mullins b5-4-0
Boris de Deauville (East Of Heaven){u}(1.50) 2/1 Balki Win 1st 4yo Chase, Pontchateau 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/harmonie-star
Following a fifth at Vichy on her racecourse debut in May, Harmonie Star won her next four starts to become the leading AQPS bumper horse of the season by prizemoney. Gaining an accurate grasp of the form's worth is not a straightforward undertaking as many of the leading horses in the sphere have taken turns beating each other, and there is little hurdling form to assess. Nevertheless, two of her successes came in Groupe IIIs including a dead heat with Holly and a six and a half length defeat of Hashtag Val - both of whom are not in the ownership of JP McManus. Showing a good and straightforward attitude, Harmonie Star has won on ground from good to very-soft, with all victories coming over twelve furlongs. Nicolas Paysan has yet to supply the sphere with any juvenile hurdlers, but Willie Mullins has a fine record with former French bumper horses including Ut De Sivola, Dandy Mag and this season's Ha d'Or. Having already ran five times in bumpers, she would no longer be elegible for such races in Ireland and the latest plan for Harmonie Star is to send her over hurdles this season.
50/1 Kingbrook bgc Ian Williams f7-2-4 (97) 103
Kingman (Montjeu){1-e}(0.63) 2/1 Tower Bridge 3rd Sefton Novices' Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2018
Switched to Ian Williams as a three-year old and has progressed into a useful type. However, there has yet to be any indication that Kingbrook will be going hurdling this term.
50/1 Holly bf Ireland b4-3-0
Voiladenuo (Turgeon){5-h}(0.52) 2/1 Valaway 4th Prix Andre Michel (G3), Auteuil 2008
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/holly-1
Whereas Harmonie Star finished fifth on her debut before winning the rest of her races, Holly won her first three races before finishing fifth last time out. She made her racecourse bow at Vichy in May and though she took a while to get herself organised in the straight, the penny dropped in time to get up near the finish. She had Harmonie Star just over two lengths behind her in fifth that day, and they would share the spoils of a Le lion d'Angers Groupe III next time out. Holly's third win came at Durtal on sticky ground and while she also took time to move though the gears, this was a more commanding victory and it compelled JP McManus to take the plunge. Carrying the hoops for the first time, she met her first taste of defeat in a Groupe I contest at Saint Cloud where she got stuck in the heavy ground and finished some twelve lengths in arrears of Hollee. Similar to Harmonie Star, establishing the form's value is much of a muchness, and anything beyond stating that she was near the top of her class would be speculative. Erwan Grall has been responsible for just one juvenile hurdler thus far, but he got off to the perfect start as a supplier when Good Ball won on his British debut at Newbury. Voiladenuo, a son of Network, was a decent quality jumper who won a Grade Three hurdle as a four year old, and the Grade Two Prix Léon Rambaud two years later in 2015. He is currently having first crop of jumping age and while Holly is his only winner to date, a couple of others have shown fair placed form over hurdles. Holly is not closely related to any top-class hurdlers, but she is out of a half-sister to the fairly useful Valaway as well as a couple of minor winners in Britain. More distantly, the Champion Hurdle winner Punjabi can be found back at 5/6. Having competed four times, she would have to go straight over hurdles whenever she makes her debut. Who that will be with or when that might be has not yet been disclosed.
50/1 Night And Day bf W Mullins f4-0-3 (70.4) 50
Sea The Moon (Danehill){9-f}(1.22) 0.5 Supasundae 1st Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/night-and-day-1
Already written
A horse from the Arqana sales whose destination has been disclosed is Night And Day who has moved to the yard of Willie Mullins who has enjoyed winners with six of the last seven juveniles bought from Deauville. She is unraced over hurdles but earned an equivilent rating of 70.4 from four runs on the flat, three of which saw her finish placed including when runner up last time in a Clairefontaine handicap over 2900 meters. Her flat rating is the lowest of all the Mullins purchases yet at €90,000, she is the most expensive of any horse bringing a rating lower than 80 from France. This can be explained in part to her being a half sister to the top class Supasundae as well as other winners Distingo and Twenty Twenty and that her sire Sea The Moon produced winners Allmankind, Must See The Doc and Gealach in his first jumping crop. She needs to leave her flat form far behind to get to the top of the division but she obviously stays, has a likeable pedigree and is in very good hands
Update
No real updates to give. She has yet to have any entries and nothing new was revealed in One Jump Ahead. The form of her second at Angers has not been well advertised by either the winner Royaume Uni, or fourth placed Ronde De Nuit as both have disappointed in British juveniles.
50/1 Paso Doble brc Paul Nicholls f9-2-3 (84) 90
Dawn Approach (Samum){8-k}(0.60) 0.5 Bailarico 1st Handicap Hurdle (117), Catterick 2020
Paso Doble reached the frame on each of his five starts in 2020 for Jim Bolger, and fetched €125,000 at the Goffs Autumn Online Sale. Finishing nearer last than first on his four outings as a two year old, he ran out a surprise but emphatic winner on his return as he powered away with a Roscommon handicap off 66 at the end of August. He followed up in a similar fashion at Fairyhouse on the first of October over ten furlongs. Though a beaten favourite on his next three starts the same month, he finished third on each occasion in handicaps at Killarney and Dundalk in races which have all worked out respectably. Consistent from ten to fourteen furlongs, his efforts last year came either on standard, or when soft appeared in the going description. Juvenile hurdlers formerly trained by Jim Bolger have a solid winners to runners rate of 30.51%, although that figure drops to a standard 21.05% for those sold at public auction. Paul Nicholls has a strong record in the division, but his record with publicly bought Irish trained flat recruits reads as zero winners from three with all of them costing at least €100,000. His record with such horses bought privately is three winners from six and includes Dodging Bullets (a maiden as a juvenile), Sir Psycho and Act Of Valour. Dawn Approach is without a winning juvenile from nine to date and none have posted RPRs exceeding 104. Damsire Samum is a sound influence on the division, and while the damline is mostly devoid of jumpers, half-brother Bailarico is a winning hurdler. Paso Doble is with a very strong yard and his flat form demonstrates ample class, stamina, size and versatility for the discipline. Though the sire has yet to prove himself, and Paul Nicholls has had more successful means of procuring talent, he was spoken of in Adonis Hurdle terms on his arrival at Ditcheat.
50/1 Prunay bg Ireland f2-0-0 j2-0-2
Prince Gibraltar (Daylami){8-f}(1.50) 3/4 Cerberus 3rd Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/prunay
Already written
Since 2011/12 there have been seventy-four juveniles who found new homes after the Arqana Summer sales at Deavillle including Diakali, Petite Parisienne, Adriana des Mottes and Zubayr. The last named was the most expensive of them all when he fetched €380,000 in 2015 but his price is the only one that exceeds this year's top lot, Prunay, who changed hands for €240,000. Prunay's career began in a flat race at Fontainebleau last November where he finished sixth, less than two lengths behind a future listed winner and three-quarters of a length ahead of a listed third. After a return to Fontainebleau for another flat race, he once again finished sixth ahead of a pair of subsequent handicap winners. His hurdling debut came in the Prix Grandak touched upon in Mica Malpic's write up earlier in the thread. A launchpad for such quality jumpers as Beaumac de Houelle, Storm Of Saintly and Saint des Saints, this year's renewal saw Prunay finish nine lengths behind the winner but upwards of eleven lengths of the remainder. The winner has not been seen out since and those in behind have done nothing to uphold or elevate the form. Nevertheless, Prunay did give his stock a more respectable look when finishing third in the Prix Aguado, a Grade 3 with a good tradition, at Auteuil ahead of five previous winners and jumping well in the process. Sire Prince Gibraltar has had just the one hurdler in Ireland but has had three others in France thus far including a winner and a placed horse and while the Rock Of Gibraltar line is not prolific, it can get decent types. Daylami's record as a damsire is below average but by no means the worst. Prunay's damline is not brimming with jumpers but it does include last season's decent juvenile Cerberus (3/4) with The Job Is Right (5/6) further back. It has not been disclosed which particular yard Prunay will end up but the agent Toby Jones did say he was going to clients in Ireland and stated that his being a maiden enhanced his price tag as well as describing him more a chasing type for the future.
Update
Still no idea where he is. The Prix Aguado form has been boosted by fourth placed Baladin de Mesc who since won a listed hurdle, finished runner-up in a Grade Three, and third in the Prix Cambaceres. Runner-up Jeu de Paume has twice finished not far behind the aforementioned while the winner has not really built on his profile.
50/1 Punctuation bg Charlie Longsdon f8-1-3 (83) 91
Dansili (Galileo){12-c}(0.86) 3/1 King Carew 2nd Handicap Chase (L,120), Cork 2003
Already written
As mentioned earlier in this thread, the Andrew Balding yard usually has a sizeable dispersion of its three-year-olds at the autumn sales but those who are sold are no likelier to go over hurdles than they are to race overseas or stay on the flat. Punctuation is still with Andrew Balding and until it is confirmed that he has joined a national hunt yard, he probably should not be listed for the Triumph Hurdle.
Update
In the event, Andrew Balding had seventeen three-year-olds offered at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, with his top lot going to Saudi Arabia for 185,000 guineas. The next best seller was Punctuation whose but of 110,000 guineas diverted him from the desert to near Chipping Norton. Former residents of Kingsclere win their fair share of juvenile hurdles, although little over a quarter will improve for the switch between codes. Balding has been responsible for seven juveniles who fetched more than 100,000 guineas and while three were winners, only Flaxen Flare could be described as pattern class. Charlie Longsdon has a respectable winners to runners rate of 29.03%, and Punctuation is set be his most expensive public purchase by some margin, with the next priciest being dual winner Paintball at 70,000 guineas in 2010. Punctuation, as a racehorse rather than a commodity, made his debut last January when a head second to To Nathaniel in a twelve furlong novice stakes at Kempton. The following month, he took a course and distance maiden by eleven lengths from a fairly moderate field. He was stepped up to pattern company for his next two starts at Newmarket and Ascot, but was well beaten on each occasion. The remainder of his four runs came in fourteen furlong, class two handicaps at Haydock, Sandown and twice at York, during which time his mark dropped from 89 to 83. Though he had a questionable headcarriage when last seen in October, he has generally looked quite straightforward although there may be a preference for firmer ground. Dansili has a strong 35.14% winners to runners rate in the division, and Galileo is a stronger damsire than sire. The dam is a half-sister to a pair of minor jumps winners as well as successful national hunt sire Kalanisi. Punctuation is entered up at Catterick next week, and while he is not an obvious Triumph contender, he is a decent enough looking recruit to the division.
50/1 Soaring Monarch bg Peter Fahey 8-1-2 (82) 87
Free Eagle (Dubawi){10-c}(0.90) 5/4 Bayan 1st Handicap Hurdle (G3,146), Ascot 2014
Already written
Soaring Monarch is not mentioned in terms of hurdling on the internet apart from in the Triumph lists but as his trainer predominantly handles national hunt horses, we can work on the assumption that that is where his attentions will be turned. He sprang a 50/1 surprise when losing his maiden tag at Limerick in June in a six and a half furlong maiden which has produced just one subsequent winner who landed a handicap off 59. He has since finished runner up in a pair of handicaps at the Galway festival including last time off 83 over nine and a half furlongs on soft ground. Soaring Monarch is rather distantly (5/4) related to the good handicapper Bayan but more immediately, his half brother and his dam's two siblings are all poor maidens over jumps. This will be his sire's first crop of juveniles and while his sire High Chaparral was good influence in the sphere, his sons have yet to really make a mark although Dubawi has a couple of winners from seven as a damsire. Peter Fahey has had no winner from his three juveniles since the 2011/12 season and while Soaring Monarch could well be a capable juvenile, his inclusion in the Triumph betting is very premature.
Update
Soaring Monarch has since placed fourth in seven furlong handicaps at Tipperary and the Curragh and has also changed ownership while staying with the trainer. Free Eagle has had two winners and two seconds from his first crop which is a fine start. However, Soaring Monarch has yet to be entered over hurdles and has not been seen in public since early November.
50/1 Tax For Max bc Willie Mullins f6-0-3 DeF GAG94.5 (109) 106
Maxios (Starborough){1-m}(0.80) 0.5 Tiger Tap Tap 4th Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2019
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/3632426/external/19256 - Munich
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/3536541/external/19018 - Hannover
Despite costing €200,000 at the Arqana Autumn sale, Tax For Max is still a maiden after six races in Germany. Nevertheless, he has progressed nicely since his debut in May and a staying on second in a valuable auction race at Hannover on his penultimate start was surpassed by a creditable fifth in a Group One in November. Just preceding the leaders turning into the straight, he briefly moved into second before losing his position a furlong from home and finishing just under six lengths behind the winner in fifth. Given its location, it would not be one of the stronger Group Ones in Europe, but it would still be high class in the context of juvenile hurdling. The German Derby runner-up was in second, Charlie Appleby's 114 rated Secret Advisor was just half a length ahead of Tax For Max, and a line through third placed Dicaprio puts him cosily ahead of the Stuart Edmunds filly Megan. Henk Grewe has supplied the division with the one juvenile in the past in the useful juvenile Tiger Tap Tap who is also a half-brother to Tax For Max along with his new stablemate. Apart than Whiteout, who was able to win as a juvenile, this is the extent of the Mullins yard with imported German juveniles, but his record with French flat imports is beyond reproach. As well as being a half-brother to Tiger Tap Tap, the granddam is a half-sister to the top class hurdler Muse, while Supreme Hurdle third Rakes Lane (4/3) and Triumph third Al Mutahm (5/3) appear further back on the damline. Maxios has a strong record in the division and he has already had an impact on the current campaign in the form of Quilixios. Though he will still need to prove himself over hurdles, Tax For Max has very strong credentials with his form, trainer and pedigree.
50/1 Teahupoo bg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 121
Masked Marvel (Sassanian){12-g}(0.50) 1/0 Droit d'Aimer 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Enghien 2010
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/teahupoo
Teahupoo has had just the one race to date, which came in the Prix Emilius on Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris day in mid-October. Although fairly late in the season for juvenile imports, the newcomers' contest has featured several who would join British and Irish yards including 2011 winner Balder Succes, 2012 winner Rolling Star, and last season's runner-up Solo. Initially in a prominent position, he was baulked at the first by a rival jumping across him and he dropped back to midfield. Though impeded again at the second, he cruised up to settle behind the leader ahead of the final circuit. Travelling strongly into the straight, he jumped into the lead at the last and though his running against the rail helped his cause, he still ran on strongly to run out a length and a quarter winner. Despite suffering interference in the early stages, Teahupoo jumped very well with his getting slightly close to the seventh being hardly worth a mention. The form has been boosted in no uncertain terms, with runner-up Good Ball winning on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Newbury, and third placed Haut les Coeurs was a twelve length winner next time out. Masked Marvel has a solid record thus far in the division, and along with the dam winning her first three starts over hurdles, Prix Rush winner Kanto (4/1) and the classy juvenile Top Notch (4/3) also appear in the pedigree. The Leenders family were responsible for Gordon Elliott's Anniversary Hurdle runner-up Clarcam, and though the stable is already saturated with talent, Teahupoo could be yet another exciting recruit.
50/1 Zoran bc Paul Nicholls f7-1-3 (81) 85
Invincible Spirit (Galileo){12-b}(1.00) 3/1 Spectrometer 3rd Coral Cup (G3,138), Cheltenham 2003
During seven runs on the flat for Hugo Palmer, Zoran has been progressive throughout his career. He got off the mark on his penultimate outing in a five runner, ten furlong handicap at Newmarket in September off a mark of 78. Though sporting a tongue tie and visor, he stayed on gamely to prevail by half a length. He was less convincing when last seen finishing sixth at Yarmouth, although it is possible that he was not suited by the soft ground. His current rating of 81 is a fair reflection of his ability and not out of line with Triumph class horses. He sold for 77,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, but it is worth noting that those formerly trained by Hugo Palmer's have a moderate record in the division with only Persiflage winning a moderate contest from thirteen horses. Notwithstanding, ex-inmate Mengli Khan, who cost 155,000 guineas, was much stronger in his second campaign. The offspring of Invincible Spirit do not achieve much in the sphere, with the winners to runners rate being 9.68%, and the highest RPR achieved from thirty-one juveniles was 123. A grandson of Ouija Board makes Zoran a nephew of Australia, a good sire in the division, and a relative of the useful Spectrometer.
There are three other horses currently at 50/1, two of whom are owned by JP McManus. Hashtag Val and Mica Malpic are both with currently with David Cottin, with the former finishing third at Fontainebleau on his sole hurdles run, and the latter disappointing at Compiegne on his first run for the new owner. Brentford Hope (66/1) boosted his class credentials with a win over a mile at Haydock in October that brought his rating up to 100. However, it was said afterwards that the step down in trip suited, and that he would be targeted at pattern races in the upcoming flat season. North Street (100/1) is a complete non-hoper while Willy Nilly (150/1) is a 67 rated 14,000 guineas purchase for Donald McCain who is not too distantly related to Torpichen.
Fortune Finder is also listed at 50/1 with Unibet. With Nimes available with the same firm at 40/1, this now makes two dead horses on their lists. The adjective used to describe Unibet would probably be "disgusting", while the noun is best left to the imagination.
There are probably a few more who might enter the markets over the next few weeks. I have found six potential juveniles who are yet to be quoted, three from French hurdles, three from the flat. I will hopefully do profiles on them before too long, but since nobody likes surprises, their names are Galata Bridge, Vulcan and Wise Glory from the flat, and Homme Public, Samarrive, and Fortunes Melody from across the channel. I am rather surprised that the latter has not been listed as she is the second placed French filly for prize money, third for official rating, and has joined Harry Fry.
Rather than confront the fact that my affection for Ratatoskr completely ballsed up the Finale tricast, I decided to look to the future and go through the horses currently listed in the Triumph markets who have not yet seen a hurdle in public outside of France. Some of these have been assessed earlier in the thread, but for the benefit of those who do not want to go trawling through over 300,000 words of variable quality, I have reposted the profiles with relevant updates.
20/1 Baron Samedi bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f10-5-0 (112) 108
Harbour Watch (Haafhd){1-l}(3.00) 3/1 Creekside 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (123), Ascot 2012
Already written
Since sacrificing his testicles in August for the greater good, Baron Samedi has improved beyond recognition and he recently completed a four-timer at Listowel off a mark thirty-two pounds higher than when when he began his winning sequence. The owners are yet to have a jumps runner and there has been no word that juvenile hurdling is on the radar for the time being. Should connections opt to go down that route then Baron Samedi's pedigree is a reasonable one as a third of his sire's juveniles have been winners, and while Haafhd has yet to have a winner as a damsire, he was useful in the division with his own progeny.
Update
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/baron-samedi
Since this earlier piece, Baron Samedi won the Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris at Longchamp in late October. Run over eleven furlongs on heavy ground, he took up the running at the distance, and battled very gamely to prevail by a head from Mare Australis. The form has not been tested subsequently and it was probably not the strongest Group 2. Nevertheless, the runner-up had taken a listed race on his previous outing, the third was a progressive handicapper and the fourth had filled the same position in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet and was third in the Prix Dollar on her previous outing. Harbour Watch has added another winning juvenile in Overpriced Mixer, although his other four have achieved little. There has still been no word on any imminent hurdling career and he is only quoted by two firms.
25/1 Dawn Rising bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f4-1-1 (-) 107
Galileo (Danehill Dancer){4-k}(0.76) 1/1 Triplicate 2nd Royal Bond Novices Hurde (G1), Fairyhouse 2018
Already written
While there has been no official word on this horse, he was recently treated to a gelding operation as well as entering most of the Triumph lists. Should he make the transition then he would make a most intriguing addition to the division. Along with being related to classic winners Sovereign, West Wind and Balanchine, he is also a full brother to Royal Bond runner up Triplicate and other good jumpers on his damline include Starchitect (2/3), Rio De Janeiro (2/1), Vandas Choice (3/1) and Butler's Cabin (5/4). Finishing last on his debut in the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes last October, Dawn Rising broke his maiden this June at Limerick by twelve lengths from a horse who would win a handicap off 75 next time out. Allowed to travel to Newmarket for the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy, the sweaty Dawn Rising won one battle up the straight against subsequent German Oaks winner Miss Yoda but was a spent force when headed just outside the furlong marker. The winner disappointed next time in the Gordon Stakes but it is still genuine group level form. Galileo is more than capable of siring juvenile hurdlers although his best (Royal Irish Hussar, Bally Glasheen, Outspoken) have been just shy of top class and has a better record as a damsire (Pentland Hills, Hargam, Sir Erec) and similar sentiments can apply to Danehill Dancer who is again an above average damsire without getting top class juveniles through his mares. Dawn Rising would not be the first pattern class horse off the flat to run for Joseph O'Brien in juvenile hurdles and both Landofhopeandglory and Sir Erec achieved success in the sphere. However, there were another three who were also officially rated above 100 who failed to win during their first seasons over hurdles (Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter, Tree Of Knowledge) although Ivanovich Gorbatov can also be included if one counts those trained in his father's name. Overall, while Dawn Rising's profile does not make him a guaranteed success in the division, he certainly has the potential to cause problems for any horse this season.
Update
Dawn Rising has not been out since finishing second at Newmarket in July. While he appears on fourteen books and was shortened by a few firms over christmas, there has still been no public word, he has not appeared in the stable tours, and is still registered with Aiden O'Brien.
33/1 Berkshire Rocco chc A Balding 9-2-4 (116) 117
Sir Percy (Shirocco) {1-c}(0.18) 4/2 Bulwark 7th Pertemps Hurdle (127), Haydock 2009
Already written
A rating of 108 was earned after his finishing second in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. If he runs over juvenile hurdles, only three horses (Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter and Sir Erec - all for Joseph O'Brien) will have brought higher flat rating to the sphere since 2012. While sixty-three horses have gone hurdling after starting with Andrew Balding, some are also sold to race abroad and I have yet to see anything that suggests Berkshire Rocco is being prepped for a hurdles career. That said, if anybody knows otherwise then please let us know.
Update
Berkshire Rocco has since finished fourth in the Great Voltigeur, second in the St Leger, and first in the listed Noel Murless Stakes at Ascot. He has not been sold, he has not been gelded and he is still with Andrew Balding.
33/1 Haut En Couleurs bg W P Mullins j1-1-0 (-) 126
Saint Des Saints (Muhtathir){8-c}(0.60) 1/0 Sanouva 1st Prix Congress (G2), Auteuil 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/haut-en-couleurs
The Prix Pride Of Kildare is a race for hurdling debutants held at Auteuil in early October. Popular chaser Exotic Dancer would be the race's most notorious winner back in 2003. Since then, the winners of the contest have not had a great deal to shout about, with 2012 winner Laristo perhaps faring best when second in the Prix Cambaceres. Given its position on the calender, it is not a prolific source of juvenile hurdlers with Sang Bleu being the only winner to race in the UK when joining Paul Nicholls in 2009. Four other runners have subsequently crossed the channel during the same season, but none since Le Fin Bois in 2013. Other winners did eventually make their way to the UK and Ireland later in their careers, but did not find much success. Breaking the mould in this peculiar year is the latest winner Haut En Couleurs who won the latest renewal by a head. Slightly hampered at the first, wasn't always tidy in what was a messy race and and he had to be ridden into a few. Nevertheless, he was also neat at a few other the others and though he hung left, he got the best of a protracted battle to the line where the front two pulled fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. The runner-up was beaten in a chase at Pau just before Christmas, but the third placed Magic Dream won his next two starts, including the Grade Two Prix Congress steeplechase. Fourth placed Invite Special has shown fair form behind Houx Gris and finished third in a listed hurdle at Auteuil before winning a chase at Pau. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders has yet to send any winning juveniles to the UK or Ireland, and both Paros and Ronde De Nuit have been disappointing this term. Nevertheless, the Leenders family has been responsible for some good types over the years including Clarcam and Politologue. Willie Mullins needs no introduction but the pedigree of Haut en Couleurs is certainly noteworthy. By top stallion Saint des Saints, Haut En Couleurs is out of Prix Congress (a Grade Two for three-year-old Chasers) winner Sanouva who has already produced winning chaser Gentilhomme. Sanouva is a half-sister to two good juveniles in Nicknos, who won the Prix Wild Monarch, and Hippomene who won both of the Grade Ones available to horses in the age group. When something looks as good as this on paper, exercising scepticism is imperative. So the negatives are that the race he won is not prolific, it was ran over eighteen furlongs on heavy ground meaning he is unproven in a race that demands more speed, and he was rather green on his racecourse debut of all things. He could be bred to make a chaser but given the precocity of his damline, and the fact that Saint des Saints' offspring are perfectly capable of performing while young, this might be a stretch. The only realistic concern is that he has only raced once and it is typically unwise to base a reputation around a solitary performance - even if the well beaten third has gone on to be a good horse. Nevertheless, Haut En Couleurs has joined a fine yard, he showed grit and class on his sole outing and his pedigree is exquisite. There is little more one could ask from a once raced prospect and he is a very exciting prospect for this season.
33/1 Tritonic chc A King 9-2-3 (99) 106
Sea The Moon (Selkirk){4-r}(1.13) 4/3 Le Breuil 1st National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2019
Already written
The second Alan King horse on this list, Tritonic would bring a high level of flat form based on his win in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark and finishing runner up in a Royal Ascot handicap. Sire Sea The Moon had a most promising first season as a jumps stallion earning a 43% winners to runners strike rate with 57% of his offspring recording RPRs above 107 including the Grade One winner and Triumph Hurdle third Allmankind. Selkirk's record as a damsire is not quite as exciting although he did produce the Champion Hurdler Sublimity. Owned by the McNeill family, it is more likely than not that he will go hurdling and he would probably make an above average recruit to the game.
Update
Though the topic of some "will he, won't he" speculation, the latest tweet from the owners said he will be trained for one of the better juveniles, and the latest stable tour said that he would be gelded then schooled in January after which he could make his debut in something like the Adonis. The gelding prophesy has been fulfilled, so it now looks to hinge on how he schools. There have been spots of movement and introduction in the Triumph lists so it can be assumed that nothing has been ruled out. On the racecourse, Tritonic has ran four times since Ascot, finishing second in a listed race at Hamilton, sixth in the Geoffrey Freer, second in a Yarmouth handicap off 99, and just under six lengths fourth in the Old Rowley Cup off the same mark. A consistent and capable horse, he seemed more straightforward on his latest start at Newmarket. If he appears this season, it is implied that he has schooled satisfactorily and should not go without attention.
33/1 Tulin bg Paul Nicholls f2-1-0 (-) -
Gleneagles (Cape Cross){1-c}(0.87) 5/2 Bulwark 7th Pertemps Hurdle (127), Haydock 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/tulin
Twice raced for Alessandro & Giuseppe Botti, Tulin's racecourse debut came with a green but staying on fifth at Le Touquet in the middle of June. Run on firm ground over 2700 metres, he finished more than nine and five lengths behind horses subsequently rated roughly 78 and 74. Tulin's managed to score next time out a fortnight later in a 2400 metre maiden on good ground at Lignieres. Fairly green once again, he raced prominently behind the leader on the inside and spent the entirety of the straight attempting to gain ground before officially getting his head in front at the line in a five way photo. While clichés are usually boring and ill-applied, an obese horse's blanket will have been sufficient to encapsulate the finishers. The current valeurs of the other four blanketmates range from 30 (66) to 34 (74.8) and the second and the second (seriously, watch the race) have each won €20,000 handicaps at Fontainebleau and Deauville. The quality of form for the division, but it would not warrant the prices currently on offer. While Cabot Cliffs has got first-season stallion Gleneagles off the mark, Cape Cross has just a 10% winners to runners ratio as a damsire and the distaff side of the pedigree is bereft of jumpers. Paul Nicholls has sourced plenty of recruits from French flat races, though most tend to be rated 80 or above and Tulin has probably not ran to that level. Tommy Silver and Volpone Jelois were probably of a similar standard and they both managed to win as juveniles. Nevertheless, while he has reportedly taken well to jumping, he looks a long way from a Triumph contender on available evidence.
40/1 John Locke Dan Skelton f5-1-3 (85) 91
Mastercraftsman (Beat Hollow){8-h}(1.46) 2/1 Political Intrigue 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Ludlow 2006
Bred and owned by the Juddmonte operation, the ironically named John Locke had been gelded before seeing the racecourse. Withdrawn from the stalls ahead of his intended debut in June, he would finish second in a ten furlong Windsor novice stakes in mid July. He was then second at Lingfield on his next two outings, on the all-weather at the start of the month, and the turf towards the end of the month. Though he was developing a case of seconditis, he did not look discernibly recalcitrant and along with competing in races which worked out well, he was finishing clear of the third on each occasion. John Locke got off the mark at the fourth time of asking in a ten furlong novice stakes at Goodwood in September. Moving to the front approaching the distance, he quickly established a clear advantage and while his lead was being eroded, he was more idling than tiring and had enough in hand at the line. The runner-up won next time before finishing third off 85, the third went one place better at Chelmsford, and the third won his next two races. John Locke disappointed on his latest flat outing, with his rider suggesting that he was unsuited by the soft ground. Former inmates of Ralph Beckett's have a solid winners to runners rate of 32.26%, with five of the six rated 80 or above winning during their juvenile campaigns. Passing through Tattersalls for 75,000 guineas, John Locke joins in Dan Skelton a trainer with a fine record in the division, and an overall strike rate of 30.23% with flat recruits rated 80 plus. Mastercraftsman is one of the most prolific and successful sires in the division, Beat Hollow has a winners to runners rate of 33.33% as a damsire, and the dam is a half-sister to three winning hurdlers. John Locke's flat form is strong for the division and his profile is positive in most regards. He might not want the ground to be too soft, but he would be a very interesting recruit nevertheless.
50/1 Bring On The Night bg W P Mullins f3-2-0 FrF (92.4)
Gleneagles (Dubai Destination){2-d}(0.52) 3/2 Schelem 1st 3yo Hurdle, Dax 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bring-on-the-night-1
Already written
Since the 2008/09 season, Andre Fabre has been the source of twenty-nine juvenile hurdlers in the UK and Ireland. Twelve of those won during their first season over obstacles but while half of them were rated at least 85 on the flat, that class largely fails to translate with Fred Winter placed duo Alexander Severus and Saticon the most successful of such types. Nevertheless, Willie Mullins has a good record with juvenile hurdlers recruited from the French flat. Twelve of the twenty during the time period have been winners including high class sorts Petitie Parisienne, Burning Victory, Diakali, Saldier and Saglawy. Bring On The Night had three runs on the flat and was successful on his latest two starts. His debut came in a Chantilly maiden in early March where he was slow from the start and finished a never nearer eighth of ten. He was better next time however when a clear winner from a strung out field in a twelve furlong Compiegne maiden later that month. The runner-up, his better fancied stablemate on the day, has not won in four subsequent outings but is currently rated 82.5. Two flat winners have come out of that race, albeit in minor races at Clairefontaine and Tours, as well as a winning steeplechaser. Bring On The Night followed up in late May on the all-weather in a Deauville conditions race over 2500 metres. This was a more hard fought success and he finished three-quarters of a length ahead of a horse currently rated 85.8. The second and third have since won small races at Toulouse and Le Touquet. Bring On The Night's rating of 92.4 is rather difficult to justify but he has a good size to him along with a decent attitude. There are not many clues in his sirelines insofar as a hurdling career is concerned as his sire Gleneagles has yet to be tested, although Galileos can make decent sires in the sphere. Dubai Destination has only nine juveniles as a damsire but three of them have been winners including the useful Forth Bridge. The damlines are rather less encouraging however as apart from Schelem (3/2) winning a minor event at Dax, the few close relatives who have tried hurdling have achieved little.
Update
Very little to add. The second and third at Deauville are each rated 36 (79.2) while the better fancied stablemate at Compiegne has dropped a couple of pounds.
50/1 Harmonie Star bf Wille Mullins b5-4-0
Boris de Deauville (East Of Heaven){u}(1.50) 2/1 Balki Win 1st 4yo Chase, Pontchateau 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/harmonie-star
Following a fifth at Vichy on her racecourse debut in May, Harmonie Star won her next four starts to become the leading AQPS bumper horse of the season by prizemoney. Gaining an accurate grasp of the form's worth is not a straightforward undertaking as many of the leading horses in the sphere have taken turns beating each other, and there is little hurdling form to assess. Nevertheless, two of her successes came in Groupe IIIs including a dead heat with Holly and a six and a half length defeat of Hashtag Val - both of whom are not in the ownership of JP McManus. Showing a good and straightforward attitude, Harmonie Star has won on ground from good to very-soft, with all victories coming over twelve furlongs. Nicolas Paysan has yet to supply the sphere with any juvenile hurdlers, but Willie Mullins has a fine record with former French bumper horses including Ut De Sivola, Dandy Mag and this season's Ha d'Or. Having already ran five times in bumpers, she would no longer be elegible for such races in Ireland and the latest plan for Harmonie Star is to send her over hurdles this season.
50/1 Kingbrook bgc Ian Williams f7-2-4 (97) 103
Kingman (Montjeu){1-e}(0.63) 2/1 Tower Bridge 3rd Sefton Novices' Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2018
Switched to Ian Williams as a three-year old and has progressed into a useful type. However, there has yet to be any indication that Kingbrook will be going hurdling this term.
50/1 Holly bf Ireland b4-3-0
Voiladenuo (Turgeon){5-h}(0.52) 2/1 Valaway 4th Prix Andre Michel (G3), Auteuil 2008
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/holly-1
Whereas Harmonie Star finished fifth on her debut before winning the rest of her races, Holly won her first three races before finishing fifth last time out. She made her racecourse bow at Vichy in May and though she took a while to get herself organised in the straight, the penny dropped in time to get up near the finish. She had Harmonie Star just over two lengths behind her in fifth that day, and they would share the spoils of a Le lion d'Angers Groupe III next time out. Holly's third win came at Durtal on sticky ground and while she also took time to move though the gears, this was a more commanding victory and it compelled JP McManus to take the plunge. Carrying the hoops for the first time, she met her first taste of defeat in a Groupe I contest at Saint Cloud where she got stuck in the heavy ground and finished some twelve lengths in arrears of Hollee. Similar to Harmonie Star, establishing the form's value is much of a muchness, and anything beyond stating that she was near the top of her class would be speculative. Erwan Grall has been responsible for just one juvenile hurdler thus far, but he got off to the perfect start as a supplier when Good Ball won on his British debut at Newbury. Voiladenuo, a son of Network, was a decent quality jumper who won a Grade Three hurdle as a four year old, and the Grade Two Prix Léon Rambaud two years later in 2015. He is currently having first crop of jumping age and while Holly is his only winner to date, a couple of others have shown fair placed form over hurdles. Holly is not closely related to any top-class hurdlers, but she is out of a half-sister to the fairly useful Valaway as well as a couple of minor winners in Britain. More distantly, the Champion Hurdle winner Punjabi can be found back at 5/6. Having competed four times, she would have to go straight over hurdles whenever she makes her debut. Who that will be with or when that might be has not yet been disclosed.
50/1 Night And Day bf W Mullins f4-0-3 (70.4) 50
Sea The Moon (Danehill){9-f}(1.22) 0.5 Supasundae 1st Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/night-and-day-1
Already written
A horse from the Arqana sales whose destination has been disclosed is Night And Day who has moved to the yard of Willie Mullins who has enjoyed winners with six of the last seven juveniles bought from Deauville. She is unraced over hurdles but earned an equivilent rating of 70.4 from four runs on the flat, three of which saw her finish placed including when runner up last time in a Clairefontaine handicap over 2900 meters. Her flat rating is the lowest of all the Mullins purchases yet at €90,000, she is the most expensive of any horse bringing a rating lower than 80 from France. This can be explained in part to her being a half sister to the top class Supasundae as well as other winners Distingo and Twenty Twenty and that her sire Sea The Moon produced winners Allmankind, Must See The Doc and Gealach in his first jumping crop. She needs to leave her flat form far behind to get to the top of the division but she obviously stays, has a likeable pedigree and is in very good hands
Update
No real updates to give. She has yet to have any entries and nothing new was revealed in One Jump Ahead. The form of her second at Angers has not been well advertised by either the winner Royaume Uni, or fourth placed Ronde De Nuit as both have disappointed in British juveniles.
50/1 Paso Doble brc Paul Nicholls f9-2-3 (84) 90
Dawn Approach (Samum){8-k}(0.60) 0.5 Bailarico 1st Handicap Hurdle (117), Catterick 2020
Paso Doble reached the frame on each of his five starts in 2020 for Jim Bolger, and fetched €125,000 at the Goffs Autumn Online Sale. Finishing nearer last than first on his four outings as a two year old, he ran out a surprise but emphatic winner on his return as he powered away with a Roscommon handicap off 66 at the end of August. He followed up in a similar fashion at Fairyhouse on the first of October over ten furlongs. Though a beaten favourite on his next three starts the same month, he finished third on each occasion in handicaps at Killarney and Dundalk in races which have all worked out respectably. Consistent from ten to fourteen furlongs, his efforts last year came either on standard, or when soft appeared in the going description. Juvenile hurdlers formerly trained by Jim Bolger have a solid winners to runners rate of 30.51%, although that figure drops to a standard 21.05% for those sold at public auction. Paul Nicholls has a strong record in the division, but his record with publicly bought Irish trained flat recruits reads as zero winners from three with all of them costing at least €100,000. His record with such horses bought privately is three winners from six and includes Dodging Bullets (a maiden as a juvenile), Sir Psycho and Act Of Valour. Dawn Approach is without a winning juvenile from nine to date and none have posted RPRs exceeding 104. Damsire Samum is a sound influence on the division, and while the damline is mostly devoid of jumpers, half-brother Bailarico is a winning hurdler. Paso Doble is with a very strong yard and his flat form demonstrates ample class, stamina, size and versatility for the discipline. Though the sire has yet to prove himself, and Paul Nicholls has had more successful means of procuring talent, he was spoken of in Adonis Hurdle terms on his arrival at Ditcheat.
50/1 Prunay bg Ireland f2-0-0 j2-0-2
Prince Gibraltar (Daylami){8-f}(1.50) 3/4 Cerberus 3rd Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/prunay
Already written
Since 2011/12 there have been seventy-four juveniles who found new homes after the Arqana Summer sales at Deavillle including Diakali, Petite Parisienne, Adriana des Mottes and Zubayr. The last named was the most expensive of them all when he fetched €380,000 in 2015 but his price is the only one that exceeds this year's top lot, Prunay, who changed hands for €240,000. Prunay's career began in a flat race at Fontainebleau last November where he finished sixth, less than two lengths behind a future listed winner and three-quarters of a length ahead of a listed third. After a return to Fontainebleau for another flat race, he once again finished sixth ahead of a pair of subsequent handicap winners. His hurdling debut came in the Prix Grandak touched upon in Mica Malpic's write up earlier in the thread. A launchpad for such quality jumpers as Beaumac de Houelle, Storm Of Saintly and Saint des Saints, this year's renewal saw Prunay finish nine lengths behind the winner but upwards of eleven lengths of the remainder. The winner has not been seen out since and those in behind have done nothing to uphold or elevate the form. Nevertheless, Prunay did give his stock a more respectable look when finishing third in the Prix Aguado, a Grade 3 with a good tradition, at Auteuil ahead of five previous winners and jumping well in the process. Sire Prince Gibraltar has had just the one hurdler in Ireland but has had three others in France thus far including a winner and a placed horse and while the Rock Of Gibraltar line is not prolific, it can get decent types. Daylami's record as a damsire is below average but by no means the worst. Prunay's damline is not brimming with jumpers but it does include last season's decent juvenile Cerberus (3/4) with The Job Is Right (5/6) further back. It has not been disclosed which particular yard Prunay will end up but the agent Toby Jones did say he was going to clients in Ireland and stated that his being a maiden enhanced his price tag as well as describing him more a chasing type for the future.
Update
Still no idea where he is. The Prix Aguado form has been boosted by fourth placed Baladin de Mesc who since won a listed hurdle, finished runner-up in a Grade Three, and third in the Prix Cambaceres. Runner-up Jeu de Paume has twice finished not far behind the aforementioned while the winner has not really built on his profile.
50/1 Punctuation bg Charlie Longsdon f8-1-3 (83) 91
Dansili (Galileo){12-c}(0.86) 3/1 King Carew 2nd Handicap Chase (L,120), Cork 2003
Already written
As mentioned earlier in this thread, the Andrew Balding yard usually has a sizeable dispersion of its three-year-olds at the autumn sales but those who are sold are no likelier to go over hurdles than they are to race overseas or stay on the flat. Punctuation is still with Andrew Balding and until it is confirmed that he has joined a national hunt yard, he probably should not be listed for the Triumph Hurdle.
Update
In the event, Andrew Balding had seventeen three-year-olds offered at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, with his top lot going to Saudi Arabia for 185,000 guineas. The next best seller was Punctuation whose but of 110,000 guineas diverted him from the desert to near Chipping Norton. Former residents of Kingsclere win their fair share of juvenile hurdles, although little over a quarter will improve for the switch between codes. Balding has been responsible for seven juveniles who fetched more than 100,000 guineas and while three were winners, only Flaxen Flare could be described as pattern class. Charlie Longsdon has a respectable winners to runners rate of 29.03%, and Punctuation is set be his most expensive public purchase by some margin, with the next priciest being dual winner Paintball at 70,000 guineas in 2010. Punctuation, as a racehorse rather than a commodity, made his debut last January when a head second to To Nathaniel in a twelve furlong novice stakes at Kempton. The following month, he took a course and distance maiden by eleven lengths from a fairly moderate field. He was stepped up to pattern company for his next two starts at Newmarket and Ascot, but was well beaten on each occasion. The remainder of his four runs came in fourteen furlong, class two handicaps at Haydock, Sandown and twice at York, during which time his mark dropped from 89 to 83. Though he had a questionable headcarriage when last seen in October, he has generally looked quite straightforward although there may be a preference for firmer ground. Dansili has a strong 35.14% winners to runners rate in the division, and Galileo is a stronger damsire than sire. The dam is a half-sister to a pair of minor jumps winners as well as successful national hunt sire Kalanisi. Punctuation is entered up at Catterick next week, and while he is not an obvious Triumph contender, he is a decent enough looking recruit to the division.
50/1 Soaring Monarch bg Peter Fahey 8-1-2 (82) 87
Free Eagle (Dubawi){10-c}(0.90) 5/4 Bayan 1st Handicap Hurdle (G3,146), Ascot 2014
Already written
Soaring Monarch is not mentioned in terms of hurdling on the internet apart from in the Triumph lists but as his trainer predominantly handles national hunt horses, we can work on the assumption that that is where his attentions will be turned. He sprang a 50/1 surprise when losing his maiden tag at Limerick in June in a six and a half furlong maiden which has produced just one subsequent winner who landed a handicap off 59. He has since finished runner up in a pair of handicaps at the Galway festival including last time off 83 over nine and a half furlongs on soft ground. Soaring Monarch is rather distantly (5/4) related to the good handicapper Bayan but more immediately, his half brother and his dam's two siblings are all poor maidens over jumps. This will be his sire's first crop of juveniles and while his sire High Chaparral was good influence in the sphere, his sons have yet to really make a mark although Dubawi has a couple of winners from seven as a damsire. Peter Fahey has had no winner from his three juveniles since the 2011/12 season and while Soaring Monarch could well be a capable juvenile, his inclusion in the Triumph betting is very premature.
Update
Soaring Monarch has since placed fourth in seven furlong handicaps at Tipperary and the Curragh and has also changed ownership while staying with the trainer. Free Eagle has had two winners and two seconds from his first crop which is a fine start. However, Soaring Monarch has yet to be entered over hurdles and has not been seen in public since early November.
50/1 Tax For Max bc Willie Mullins f6-0-3 DeF GAG94.5 (109) 106
Maxios (Starborough){1-m}(0.80) 0.5 Tiger Tap Tap 4th Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2019
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/3632426/external/19256 - Munich
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-racing/race/details/id/3536541/external/19018 - Hannover
Despite costing €200,000 at the Arqana Autumn sale, Tax For Max is still a maiden after six races in Germany. Nevertheless, he has progressed nicely since his debut in May and a staying on second in a valuable auction race at Hannover on his penultimate start was surpassed by a creditable fifth in a Group One in November. Just preceding the leaders turning into the straight, he briefly moved into second before losing his position a furlong from home and finishing just under six lengths behind the winner in fifth. Given its location, it would not be one of the stronger Group Ones in Europe, but it would still be high class in the context of juvenile hurdling. The German Derby runner-up was in second, Charlie Appleby's 114 rated Secret Advisor was just half a length ahead of Tax For Max, and a line through third placed Dicaprio puts him cosily ahead of the Stuart Edmunds filly Megan. Henk Grewe has supplied the division with the one juvenile in the past in the useful juvenile Tiger Tap Tap who is also a half-brother to Tax For Max along with his new stablemate. Apart than Whiteout, who was able to win as a juvenile, this is the extent of the Mullins yard with imported German juveniles, but his record with French flat imports is beyond reproach. As well as being a half-brother to Tiger Tap Tap, the granddam is a half-sister to the top class hurdler Muse, while Supreme Hurdle third Rakes Lane (4/3) and Triumph third Al Mutahm (5/3) appear further back on the damline. Maxios has a strong record in the division and he has already had an impact on the current campaign in the form of Quilixios. Though he will still need to prove himself over hurdles, Tax For Max has very strong credentials with his form, trainer and pedigree.
50/1 Teahupoo bg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 121
Masked Marvel (Sassanian){12-g}(0.50) 1/0 Droit d'Aimer 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Enghien 2010
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/teahupoo
Teahupoo has had just the one race to date, which came in the Prix Emilius on Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris day in mid-October. Although fairly late in the season for juvenile imports, the newcomers' contest has featured several who would join British and Irish yards including 2011 winner Balder Succes, 2012 winner Rolling Star, and last season's runner-up Solo. Initially in a prominent position, he was baulked at the first by a rival jumping across him and he dropped back to midfield. Though impeded again at the second, he cruised up to settle behind the leader ahead of the final circuit. Travelling strongly into the straight, he jumped into the lead at the last and though his running against the rail helped his cause, he still ran on strongly to run out a length and a quarter winner. Despite suffering interference in the early stages, Teahupoo jumped very well with his getting slightly close to the seventh being hardly worth a mention. The form has been boosted in no uncertain terms, with runner-up Good Ball winning on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Newbury, and third placed Haut les Coeurs was a twelve length winner next time out. Masked Marvel has a solid record thus far in the division, and along with the dam winning her first three starts over hurdles, Prix Rush winner Kanto (4/1) and the classy juvenile Top Notch (4/3) also appear in the pedigree. The Leenders family were responsible for Gordon Elliott's Anniversary Hurdle runner-up Clarcam, and though the stable is already saturated with talent, Teahupoo could be yet another exciting recruit.
50/1 Zoran bc Paul Nicholls f7-1-3 (81) 85
Invincible Spirit (Galileo){12-b}(1.00) 3/1 Spectrometer 3rd Coral Cup (G3,138), Cheltenham 2003
During seven runs on the flat for Hugo Palmer, Zoran has been progressive throughout his career. He got off the mark on his penultimate outing in a five runner, ten furlong handicap at Newmarket in September off a mark of 78. Though sporting a tongue tie and visor, he stayed on gamely to prevail by half a length. He was less convincing when last seen finishing sixth at Yarmouth, although it is possible that he was not suited by the soft ground. His current rating of 81 is a fair reflection of his ability and not out of line with Triumph class horses. He sold for 77,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, but it is worth noting that those formerly trained by Hugo Palmer's have a moderate record in the division with only Persiflage winning a moderate contest from thirteen horses. Notwithstanding, ex-inmate Mengli Khan, who cost 155,000 guineas, was much stronger in his second campaign. The offspring of Invincible Spirit do not achieve much in the sphere, with the winners to runners rate being 9.68%, and the highest RPR achieved from thirty-one juveniles was 123. A grandson of Ouija Board makes Zoran a nephew of Australia, a good sire in the division, and a relative of the useful Spectrometer.
There are three other horses currently at 50/1, two of whom are owned by JP McManus. Hashtag Val and Mica Malpic are both with currently with David Cottin, with the former finishing third at Fontainebleau on his sole hurdles run, and the latter disappointing at Compiegne on his first run for the new owner. Brentford Hope (66/1) boosted his class credentials with a win over a mile at Haydock in October that brought his rating up to 100. However, it was said afterwards that the step down in trip suited, and that he would be targeted at pattern races in the upcoming flat season. North Street (100/1) is a complete non-hoper while Willy Nilly (150/1) is a 67 rated 14,000 guineas purchase for Donald McCain who is not too distantly related to Torpichen.
Fortune Finder is also listed at 50/1 with Unibet. With Nimes available with the same firm at 40/1, this now makes two dead horses on their lists. The adjective used to describe Unibet would probably be "disgusting", while the noun is best left to the imagination.
There are probably a few more who might enter the markets over the next few weeks. I have found six potential juveniles who are yet to be quoted, three from French hurdles, three from the flat. I will hopefully do profiles on them before too long, but since nobody likes surprises, their names are Galata Bridge, Vulcan and Wise Glory from the flat, and Homme Public, Samarrive, and Fortunes Melody from across the channel. I am rather surprised that the latter has not been listed as she is the second placed French filly for prize money, third for official rating, and has joined Harry Fry.
barjon
Conditional
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,639
Bit outdated this Timeform assessment, 3/1/21, and a few changes to come in - Adagio must be close to the top two now.
JUVENILE HURDLERS
141p ZANAHIYR
140p FRENCH ASEEL
133p NASSALAM
131p DUFFLE COAT
130p MONMIRAL
128P YOUMDOR
128p QUILIXIOS
125p HOUX GRIS
124 ADAGIO
124 BUSSELTON
124 TALKING ABOUT YOU
123p HA D'OR
122p HYSTERY BERE
122p RIVIERE D'ETEL
122 HACKER DES PLACES
122 HELL RED
122 SAINT SAM
122 SOLDIER ON PARADE
121 ELHAM VALLEY
121 FIVEANDTWENTY
121 GLORIOUS ZOFF
121 HISTORIC HEART
JUVENILE HURDLERS
141p ZANAHIYR
140p FRENCH ASEEL
133p NASSALAM
131p DUFFLE COAT
130p MONMIRAL
128P YOUMDOR
128p QUILIXIOS
125p HOUX GRIS
124 ADAGIO
124 BUSSELTON
124 TALKING ABOUT YOU
123p HA D'OR
122p HYSTERY BERE
122p RIVIERE D'ETEL
122 HACKER DES PLACES
122 HELL RED
122 SAINT SAM
122 SOLDIER ON PARADE
121 ELHAM VALLEY
121 FIVEANDTWENTY
121 GLORIOUS ZOFF
121 HISTORIC HEART
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,230
I'm not used to seeing Timeform ratings for juveniles in terms of such listing so I'm wondering how those above would compare/contrast with previous years' lists at the same stage.
They look very conservative to me.
These are the top juveniles on RPRs as listed the other day in the Weekender:
Zanahiyr 145
Quilixios 144
Nassalam 140
French Aseel 139
Monmiral 134
Youmdor 133
Duffle Coat 132
Saint Sam 131
Hacker Des Places 130
Busselton 125
Talking About You 124
Dark Voyager 123
Again, I'm not used to checking these at this stage and they look conservative.
I know my own rating for Zanahiyr is a good 10lbs higher but I don't have many juvenile ratings as I only look at the form ahead of the festival or where one jumps out on times.
They look very conservative to me.
These are the top juveniles on RPRs as listed the other day in the Weekender:
Zanahiyr 145
Quilixios 144
Nassalam 140
French Aseel 139
Monmiral 134
Youmdor 133
Duffle Coat 132
Saint Sam 131
Hacker Des Places 130
Busselton 125
Talking About You 124
Dark Voyager 123
Again, I'm not used to checking these at this stage and they look conservative.
I know my own rating for Zanahiyr is a good 10lbs higher but I don't have many juvenile ratings as I only look at the form ahead of the festival or where one jumps out on times.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
On the basis that something often comes out in Jan/Feb and muscles its way to the head of the Triumph market, I’d probably take the 14/1 Youmdor.
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Quilixios is the over priced one. He's 12/1 (10/1nrnb), because the others have been busy and he hasn't. We know that Gordon had him top of his tree too. Zanahiyr has surprised them. Given that one was out in the Knight Frank you'd think that Quilixios is the one for the Spring Juvenile at the DRF, and if he is that would be confirmation that Gordon still sees him as the better of the two.
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Bachelors Hall
Conditional
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- Apr 24, 2012
- Messages
- 763
Horse BH TF RPR BHA
Zanahiyr / 143 / 141 / 145 / .
Youmdor / 141 / 128 / 133 / .
Monmiral / 140 / 130 / 134 / 143
Duffle Coat / 137 / 131 / 132 / .
French Aseel / 137 / 140 / 139 / .
Hell Red / 135 / 122 / . / 134
Saint Sam / 133 / 122 / 131 / .
Quilixios / 132 / 128 / 144 / .
Soldier On Parade / 132 / 122 / . / 133
Busselton / 131 / 124 / 125 / .
Riviere d'Etel / 131 / 122 / . / .
Ha d'Or / 129 / 123 / . / .
Cabot Cliffs / 129 / . / . / 125
Glorious Zoff / 128 / 121 / . / .
Autumn Evening / 128 / . / . / .
Dark Voyager / 128 / . / 123 / .
Adagio / 127 / 124 / . / 136
Crassus / 126 / . / . / .
Longclaw / 126 / . / . / .
Nassalam / 126 / 133 / 140 / 140
Druid's Altar / 126 / . / . / .
Jeff Kidder / 125 / . / . / .
Bannister / 125 / . / . / 132
Heross Du Seuil / 125 / . / . / .
Honneur d'Ajonc / 125 / . / . / .
First Impression / 124 / . / . / 121
Historic Heart / 124 / 121 / . / 131
Gold Desert / 124 / . / . / 123
Good Ball / 124 / . / . / 126
Hacker Des Places / 124 / 122 / 130 / 136
Hiconic / 124 / . / . / 125
Talking About You / 124 / 124 / 124 / 135
Palm Beach / 124 / . / . / .
Zoffanien / 121 / . / . / .
Kings Creek / 120 / . / . / 117
Naizagai / 120 / . / . / 118
Balko Saint / 120 / . / . / 128
Ilmig / 120 / . / . / .
Fiveandtwenty / 119 / 121 / . / 129
Hystery Bere / 118 / 122 / . / 125
Elham Valley / 116 / 121 / . / .
Without the benefit of fiddling around with them after every race, these are my master ratings up to, but not including, yesterday's races. I have also added the BHA's ratings at the end. All of my ratings have been posted in this thread, and the only mark I've actually altered (I can't remember if I expressly did this or just alluded to same in a review) is Glorious Zoff's given that Crassus was likely going through a lull of confidence at Sligo. Hell Red's looks a little high disregarding his Cheltenham disappointment, although he did look magnificent at Chepstow and Monmiral has certainly validated his credentials. Soldier On Parade might have just been a summer horse but time will tell. Cabot Cliffs possibly has a higher mark as the Wensleydale looked good at the time, although given what Adagio has done since, the Cheltenham race is looking strong in hindsight. Nevertheless, while Adagio beat Cabot Cliffs at Cheltenham, a line through Duffle Coat would still put Cabot Cliffs ahead and he may have ran better at Wetherby. Before I think myself into a loop... Strictly on his Ballinrobe run against Zanahiyr and Crassus, Dark Voyager ran to a mark around 128 there but looks to have gone sour since. Adagio has improved but I still had him above Nassalam so kudos to me. It is nice that myself, Timeform and RPR agree on Talking About You...
Does anybody else have ratings to hand?
Also, anonymous polls!
https://www.strawpoll.me/42420571 - Which ratings do you most agree with?
https://www.strawpoll.me/42420587 - Which ratings do you most agree with? Sans my ego.
Zanahiyr / 143 / 141 / 145 / .
Youmdor / 141 / 128 / 133 / .
Monmiral / 140 / 130 / 134 / 143
Duffle Coat / 137 / 131 / 132 / .
French Aseel / 137 / 140 / 139 / .
Hell Red / 135 / 122 / . / 134
Saint Sam / 133 / 122 / 131 / .
Quilixios / 132 / 128 / 144 / .
Soldier On Parade / 132 / 122 / . / 133
Busselton / 131 / 124 / 125 / .
Riviere d'Etel / 131 / 122 / . / .
Ha d'Or / 129 / 123 / . / .
Cabot Cliffs / 129 / . / . / 125
Glorious Zoff / 128 / 121 / . / .
Autumn Evening / 128 / . / . / .
Dark Voyager / 128 / . / 123 / .
Adagio / 127 / 124 / . / 136
Crassus / 126 / . / . / .
Longclaw / 126 / . / . / .
Nassalam / 126 / 133 / 140 / 140
Druid's Altar / 126 / . / . / .
Jeff Kidder / 125 / . / . / .
Bannister / 125 / . / . / 132
Heross Du Seuil / 125 / . / . / .
Honneur d'Ajonc / 125 / . / . / .
First Impression / 124 / . / . / 121
Historic Heart / 124 / 121 / . / 131
Gold Desert / 124 / . / . / 123
Good Ball / 124 / . / . / 126
Hacker Des Places / 124 / 122 / 130 / 136
Hiconic / 124 / . / . / 125
Talking About You / 124 / 124 / 124 / 135
Palm Beach / 124 / . / . / .
Zoffanien / 121 / . / . / .
Kings Creek / 120 / . / . / 117
Naizagai / 120 / . / . / 118
Balko Saint / 120 / . / . / 128
Ilmig / 120 / . / . / .
Fiveandtwenty / 119 / 121 / . / 129
Hystery Bere / 118 / 122 / . / 125
Elham Valley / 116 / 121 / . / .
Without the benefit of fiddling around with them after every race, these are my master ratings up to, but not including, yesterday's races. I have also added the BHA's ratings at the end. All of my ratings have been posted in this thread, and the only mark I've actually altered (I can't remember if I expressly did this or just alluded to same in a review) is Glorious Zoff's given that Crassus was likely going through a lull of confidence at Sligo. Hell Red's looks a little high disregarding his Cheltenham disappointment, although he did look magnificent at Chepstow and Monmiral has certainly validated his credentials. Soldier On Parade might have just been a summer horse but time will tell. Cabot Cliffs possibly has a higher mark as the Wensleydale looked good at the time, although given what Adagio has done since, the Cheltenham race is looking strong in hindsight. Nevertheless, while Adagio beat Cabot Cliffs at Cheltenham, a line through Duffle Coat would still put Cabot Cliffs ahead and he may have ran better at Wetherby. Before I think myself into a loop... Strictly on his Ballinrobe run against Zanahiyr and Crassus, Dark Voyager ran to a mark around 128 there but looks to have gone sour since. Adagio has improved but I still had him above Nassalam so kudos to me. It is nice that myself, Timeform and RPR agree on Talking About You...
Does anybody else have ratings to hand?
Also, anonymous polls!
https://www.strawpoll.me/42420571 - Which ratings do you most agree with?
https://www.strawpoll.me/42420587 - Which ratings do you most agree with? Sans my ego.
barjon
Conditional
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- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,639
My notes show Goshen lifted to 145 (from 142) by Timeform on 20/1/20 if that helps.
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barjon
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BH, I have say that I would normally plump for Timeform, but because yours are accompanied by such comprehensive and perceptive race commentaries it would be lovely to see yours prove the better. Perhaps you ought to copy the thread and send it off to them. Not that we want to lose you, of course
Bachelors Hall
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- Apr 24, 2012
- Messages
- 763
Perhaps this would be of interest?
BH, I have say that I would normally plump for Timeform, but because yours are accompanied by such comprehensive and perceptive race commentaries it would be lovely to see yours prove the better. Perhaps you ought to copy the thread and send it off to them. Not that we want to lose you, of course
Cheers barjon. I only actually started posting them after you pestered me to do so
I would be lying if I said that a career of some description in the industry is not a small part of what motivates me to contribute to this thread. Indeed, this time last year, I was at the NHC and had actually started on a yard prior to the lockdown which truncated that endeavour. It was probably a blessing though as my tennis elbow was starting to become a nuisance. I wouldn't mind going back into ground work although while I love being around horses and am fitter and stronger than most people my size and age, I have never been able to get the hang of mucking out without completely overthinking the process. (I actually came first in the fitness test at horsey college so should any of my former classmates turn professional, I will be able to tell myself that my athleticism is of an elite standard). I also did the secretary course off my own back while I was there and I would like to imagine I could become fairly capable in some kind of administrative role involving research or whathaveyou. That said, if getting paid to do something similar to what I am doing here becomes a realistic prospect then it would be very strongly considered.
Obviously, my main priority is to be less homeless before too long as well as brush up on my spreadsheet skills whatever other facets I can hone doing this project. But once this season is completed, by which time I would like to have somewhere stable, then considering where to send samples of this work would be the next step.
Notwithstanding, if anything more than nothing happens, I won't forget where I came from :nono:
Bachelors Hall
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No probs. This one is a little more comprehensive as it shows the trials records of the first four home in each of the sixteen previous Triumph Hurdles.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,230
Now I won't sleep tonight worrying about you, BH.
How the fvck can you overthink mucking out?
Isn't that on the same level as overthinking doing a jobby?
DannyB
At the Start
Surely its a possibility that Duffle Coat goes Fred winter with Elliot having a strong hand with the other two?