K Fallon on Heavy

Uhhh... don't worry, Bar - I'll come back to this when I've got a couple of hours to try and work it out! :blink:
 
Bar the Bull said:
Would you agree that each jockey has a worst track and a best track in terms of A/E?
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I think they have worst distances at certain tracks as well as worst tracks..its unusual for top jocks to be poor at a track per se..but some of the AE's for certain distances make very interesting reading..and are profitable for opposing them.

Enrol for a month at Flatstats..there's plenty of info on there for price of half a night out :)
 
There's also another little feature re the top jocks - when they might manage to squeeze and squeeze and get a win, once they see that will require a bit too much effort, they pack it in and 'settle'. I won't say which trainer at Brighton today, whose horse won after a good battle, and by whiskers, but he muttered to the owners, "As well we didn't have Frankie, after all" - Songsheet would concur with that, too, seeing ANGEL SPRINTS, bred by her, lose a place at Goodwood because Frankie, having realised he wasn't going to be 1st, just didn't bother to push hard enough to at least retain a better placing than he got. It's all the same money, win, lose, or draw, so why knock yourself out sometimes?

It may well be that some jockeys ride certain tracks better than others - probably down to how many times they've ridden them - but there are also some jockeys who'll ride a lot harder than others and just manage to squeak a win, when others will just push enough to retain a place. Especially if it isn't a high-profile owner's horse or premier race.
 
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N Callan - Newmarket - 8f = 0/77
M Hills - Ascot - 8f - 0/55
Martin Dwyer - 8f - Brighton - 0/35
R Hughes - 8f - Epsom - 2/32
R Winston - 7f Doncaster - 0/58
 
Are you going to rate every jockey at every distance, at every track, EC? I imagine that would be the only way in which to arrive at a table of best and worst track performances. But then you'd also have to factor in the type of race and horse involved, wouldn't you? It would make a difference to a jockey's win/lose ratio riding 2 y.o. debuts to grizzled old handicappers, or Classic contenders.

If jockey ABC rode the most winners at Epsom, it might be that he was simply on the best horses, rather than gifted with superior ability to others on lesser animals.

Or am I talking complete rowlocks?
 
krizon said:
Are you going to rate every jockey at every distance, at every track, EC? I imagine that would be the only way in which to arrive at a table of best and worst track performances. But then you'd also have to factor in the type of race and horse involved, wouldn't you? It would make a difference to a jockey's win/lose ratio riding 2 y.o. debuts to grizzled old handicappers, or Classic contenders.

If jockey ABC rode the most winners at Epsom, it might be that he was simply on the best horses, rather than gifted with superior ability to others on lesser animals.

Or am I talking complete rowlocks?
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If you pay for a month at Flatstats you get the lot and loads more

the A/E saves you all that analysis

don't get me wrong here..i'm not a stats slave but these do interest me

I remember last year or one before..there was a really high profile R Hughes one over the 8f Epsom trip..was Derby meeting I believe..he rode a short priced one in a handicap..got into all sorts of probs on the camber..there were a hundred threads on Betfair :D..criticising him..but his past record..even then over that trip warned you he has probs over that test
 
I see - so this thing called Flatstats works all this sort of stuff out for you? Amazing! (I still don't know what the A/E is, though.) I didn't realise how much information existed - every possible nook and cranny appears to have been exposed for data. I can't believe that armoured with all this enorrrrrmous pile of info - ratings, timings, jockeys' bests and worsts, horses' track and going preferences, etc., etc., world without end, that serious users aren't gega-billionaires by now. If it all goes towards helping someone to find the right horse at the right time, it must guarantee a much higher percentage of success than just plain form, surely?

Have to say, it's amazing what you learn on forums - I'd no idea there was so much arcana behind the decision to bung on a 35p Exacta, or not! :lol:
 
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krizon said:
I see - so this thing called Flatstats works all this sort of stuff out for you? Amazing! (I still don't know what the A/E is, though.) I didn't realise how much information existed - every possible nook and cranny appears to have been exposed for data. I can't believe that armoured with all this enorrrrrmous pile of info - ratings, timings, jockeys' bests and worsts, horses' track and going preferences, etc., etc., world without end, that serious users aren't gega-billionaires by now. If it all goes towards helping someone to find the right horse at the right time, it must guarantee a much higher percentage of success than just plain form, surely?

Have to say, it's amazing what you learn on forums - I'd no idea there was so much arcana behind the decision to bung on a 35p Exacta, or not! :lol:
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put flatstats into google Kri..a whole world of stats..about horses..trainers ..jocks..owners..the whole game basically.

the A/E

lets say a jockey rides 20 even money shots..he wins on 10 of them..A/E = 1.0...par result....basicallly he won with 50% of them as he should have as suggested by the odds....evens = 50%....yes I know even money shots don't really have a 50% chance..but lets not be pedantic :)

if he only wins on 5 of them the the A/E is 0.5..half what was expected..0.5 isn't brilliant and below that obviously there is a problem isn't there?

thats why the A/E pees all over a bare %..but still people use % as though it actually means something..when in fact it means a lot less than an A/E rating.

using the market to measure the expected wins is by far the most effective use of stats.
 
EC1 said:
I remember last year or one before..there was a really high profile R Hughes one over the 8f Epsom trip..was Derby meeting I believe..he rode a short priced one in a handicap..got into all sorts of probs on the camber..there were a hundred threads on Betfair
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Home Affairs, Diomed Stakes 2006.
 
Many thanks for all that, EC1 - really surprising stuff! However, the young fellow representing the Tote, which sponsored all of today's card at Brighton, chose the first three winners for his charity bets for Help for Heroes in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd races and says he never uses anything but form and intuition! He netted £84 for the good cause (his own money used, not the Tote's, before someone gripes), and followed up with two places, which unfortunately didn't count. Not bad for a very basic punter!
 
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