Ladbrokes (Hennessey) Trophy – Newbury 30 Nov

granger said:
Yorkhill.. another to seduce me over the years and leave me with egg on my chin

Not again my old friend
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I genuinely think Willie still rates him. Be interesting to see who gets jocked up. Absolutely chucked in if showing any sort of old form. Would be nice for the owners as well who had a stinking year last year.

Won’t be my main bet, but 50s was to big to not get involved for his confirmed target. As someone mentioned earlier, it’s fringe Gold Cup horses, and Yorkhill was certainly well thought of 2 years ago.

Seen the race is being run on the Friday? Is that the norm? Always thought it was a Saturday.
 
Ladbrokes Trophy

November 30

Key trends

Won a Class 1 or 2 chase, ten winners in last ten runnings
At least one top-three finish in last two starts, 10/10
No more than 14 chase runs, 10/10
Recorded a pre-race RPR of at least 151, 9/10
Had won a chase over at least 3m, 9/10
Aged between six and eight, 8/10
Officially rated between 146 and 156, 8/10 (both exceptions higher)
Top-three finish last time, 8/10

Other factors

The race used to favour those carrying lighter weights, but seven of the last ten winners carried at least 11st 1lb.

Six winners had previously won at the course.

Six winners had previously contested the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Last year's sixth Ms Parfois is the only mare to have run in the last ten years – mares finished 73348P in the previous decade.

The two winners officially rated higher than 156 were Cheltenham Gold Cup winners (Denman in 2009 had won the Gold Cup in 2008; 2012 winner Bobs Worth went on to land the Gold Cup in 2013).
Ladbrokes Trophy Racing Post Ratings

Ballyoptic 170
Elegant Escape 169
Yala Enki
The Worlds End
Regal Encore
Walt
Bennys King
Robinsfirth 168
Adrien Du Pont
Vintage Clouds
Compiled by Steve Mason
Topspeed Ratings

Joe Farrell 167
Rathvinden 164
Talkischeap 164
The Young Master 164
Carole’s Destrier 159
Larry 157
Robinsfirth 157
Yala Enki 157
Casablanca Mix 155
Regal Encore 155
Compiled by Dave Edwards
 
I've fancied Kildisart strongly for this for a long time, but there's something very odd going on with Pauling's yard.

He's not had a runner for two weeks, his last three were all beaten out of sight and he has no entries other Kildisart and Le Breuil in this race.
 
Marb said:
I poured through a few form lines last night and Michael Scudamore's SOME CHAOS caught my eye as a second season chaser in waiting. You can forgive and forget the last run in a novice hurdle on heavy ground.

Last season he did nothing but improve over fences with a strike rate of 4/6 (or 66 percent in percentage terms), in class fours, three's and one class two. His form tells me he is a 150+ chaser this season racing on a mark of 145.

If he made it on the day at Newbury he could easily start a lot shorter than the current 40/1 with Betfred and a few others.

So yeah, Some Chaos for me. A strong fancy at the respective odds.

40/1 looks like an anti-post price which is what you'd expect just under two weeks before the race..
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Glad to see Some Chaos was one of only 26 left in today.
 
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Marb said:
Glad to see Some Chaos was one of only 26 left in today.
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Some Chaos and Daklondike (were they to run) would be my two against the field here.

Both available at huge prices. Looking forward to this.

Who thinks the race is between the market leaders or that Ok Corral is worth backing at that price though?

I am keen to hear from you.

Clearly I reckon this race is up for grabs.
 
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I see DINGO DOLLAR is shortening as we speak, all blue across the oddschecker board.

3rd in the race last year Alan King reports the horse is stronger this year.
 
Oh aye Dingo Dollar. Did him last year. I could have a small saver on him I suppose. Still think Some Chaos is a ludicrous price.
 
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