Lexus Chase

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At the Start
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Paddy Powers odds...

Denman 2 - 5
The Listener 5 - 2
Beef Or Salmon 10 - 1
State Of Play 12 - 1
L'Antartique 16 - 1
Mossbank 16 - 1
Snowy Morning 16 - 1
Offshore Account 33 - 1
Hi Cloy 50 - 1

Great to see so many British horses entered otherwise the race really would fall apart.

There seem to have been rumours regarding Denman but as ever connections have been very honest and come out and said he has coughed a few times but has not missed any work and seems in great form. Track and going should suit him ideally...could really see Ruby kick on and press The Listener for the lead just coming out of the back straight.

Interesting to read that The Listener might go for the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham this year. I think connections still remember him falling into a hole in the Hennessy but that was down to the rider going much too fast early on more than anything else. If he goes hell for leather again against Denman he will really set it up for him.
 
The rumours about Denman appear to be about as accurate as the ones that did the rounds in October, perpetuated by people with nothing substantial or concrete to report, only a desire to peddle gossip, that he was out for the season....
 
Well Nick Mordin's developed a new toy to play with 'sectional timing chases on U tube'. Suffice to say he thinks The Listener is going to gub Denman based on his new insight
 
Denman and The Listener get into a suicidal dual upfront and set it up for the staying on....

... you know the rest. :D
 
I think connections still remember him falling into a hole in the Hennessy but that was down to the rider going much too fast early on more than anything else.
Click to expand...

I hope you realise you've inadvertently agreed with Nick Mordin. He reckons, after you adjust for the going, that The Listener "reached the eighth jump in that race a full 5.8 seconds sooner than he had in the Lexus".
 
Current going is Good To Yielding at Leopardstown. Forecast is a dry week with a possibility of some rain at the weekend…..by Monday its meant to be back cold and dry. Far the from the usual bog it is.
 
Oppose Beef Or Salmon on the like goodish ground. I would take Mossbank to finish ahead of his stablemate but weither he is good enough to bustle up the front two I dont know.
 
I hope Denman will win. It will keep the ideas of a fantastic Gold Cup come March alive.
 
Afistfullofdollars
Denman
Beef Or Salmon
The Listener
Mossbank
Forget The Past
L’Antartique
Offshore Account
Our Ben
Schindlers Hunt
Slim Pickings
State Of Play
 
Wouldn't bank on the ground being goodish just yet, with fairly heavy rain forecast for Sunday night (23rd) and more forecast for Christmas Eve.. surely won't be anything like what we've had the last couple of years though..
 
Def wait for the weather as you have 3 or 4 ground-dependant horses running at the top of the market. I'll back Denman if it's Good, RFCT Denman and The Listener if it's Soft, RFCT the Listener and Beefy if it turns really Heavy. GS will be a close call :D
 
DENMAN HEADS LEXUS SIX
By PA Sport Staff

Denman will take on five rivals in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on Friday.

Paul Nicholls' Hennessy hero attempts to galvanise his Gold Cup credentials in the Grade One over three miles.
Ruby Walsh's mount faces stiff opposition from last year's winner The Listener, who looked in rude health landing the spoils in the John Durkan Chase at Punchestown.
Ten-time Grade One winner Beef Or Salmon has claimed this race on three occasions and teams up with the rejuvenated Mossbank from Michael Hourigan's yard.
A strong British hand is strengthened by the inclusion of the Evan Williams-trained State Of Play and Paddy Power Gold Cup winner L'Antartique.
The Listener's connections are cautiously optimistic about their chances of lowering the colours of Denman.
Nick Mitchell, assistant trainer to Robert Alner, said: "It's raining at the moment, which is obviously good news, but it would need to rain all day to have any real effect.
"The ground's easy enough as it is, though, so we're fairly confident.
"He travelled well - he always does - and seems to really enjoy coming to different places.
"It's not just about Denman - there's Beef Or Salmon in there again and he beat us last year (in the Irish Hennessy).
"But he's in top form and we think we've got a good chance."
Williams is acutely aware of the magnitude of the challenge that awaits State Of Play.
The 2006 Hennessy winner was turned over when favourite for the Charlie Hall but is reported to have improved for that second-placed finish behind Ollie Magern.
"He's a better horse now than he was at Wetherby - probably 4lb or 5lb better," said the Welsh handler.
"The trouble is we'd probably need him to have improved by about 14lb to win the Lexus.
"It's such a good race and I'd be over the moon if he finishes in the first three

"We perhaps should have gone for the Rowland Meyrick (at Wetherby on Boxing Day) but we wanted to give him another chance in a Grade One."
 
Hard to believe that the only Irish trained horses to run in King George and Lexus Chase this year are trained by Michael Hourigan.

Credit to him..of course....but damning of the rest.
 
Some heavy rain forecast for tomorrow but it might arrive after the big race.Limerick might be a little on the soft side.
 
Easy win by Denman! Looked like a training canter to me. Good performance by Mossbank. I think he is pretty underated by many. The Listener was solid but is not the horse who can win a Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Can't wait to see Kauto Star and Denman clash at Cheltenham!
 
Wouldn't go that far Steepler - nice run from him and a good turn of foot off the final bend. Would think Ruby will ride Kauto now after that performance.
 
Hourigan insists Mossbank will be a better horse next year. He might have won the Hennessey but seems to run better fresh so the right thing to do was this plan. Was impressed by his jumping today and is best of the Irish if campaigned sensibly.

Winner did all he had to do and no more. Not as flashy as Kauto and not as good in my opinion but a terrific horse in his own right. Will go out and do his own thing in the Gold Cup and hard to see him out of the frame.
 
Beating Beef or Salmon seven lengths on yielding ground would not give him much chance with Kauto Star . A good enough performance but it puts the Hennessy hype into perspective .

Kauto Star is likely to be close to evens after that - I wonder if anyone ever took that 6-4 Denman with Corals ????
 
Wouldn't say it was that easy for Denman, he had to be shaken up a bit down the home straight to make sure he picked up.

Jumped the last quite well and picked up after that.

Still think he has a long way to go to get to Kauto Star though.
 
I think Denman hasn't done more than he had to today. Still its a long way to reach the class of Kauto Star. But he is only a 2nd season chaser and will improve with each race.

And yes, I like Mossbank. I'm sure there will be enough prices for him to pick up.
 
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