Lexus Chase
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Shadow Leader
At the Start
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Denman did it pretty well I thought - no, it wasn't anything spectacular but there was never any doubt about the result and he wasn't hard ridden to achieve it.
I agree with Bobbyjo that it is very hard to see him out of the frame in the Gold Cup and in fact I still think he is capable of giving Kauto Star a fright. Denman's best performances have been on faster ground, Cheltenham plays to his strengths and suits him well and he is quite capable of setting a relentless gallop and running it out of them all. Don't forget that if there are any possible chinks in KS's armour with regards to jumping they will be put to the sword at a relentless gallop. Clearly the horse has to improve to beat KS but I think he has a good chance of giving him a run for his money.
I agree with Bobbyjo that it is very hard to see him out of the frame in the Gold Cup and in fact I still think he is capable of giving Kauto Star a fright. Denman's best performances have been on faster ground, Cheltenham plays to his strengths and suits him well and he is quite capable of setting a relentless gallop and running it out of them all. Don't forget that if there are any possible chinks in KS's armour with regards to jumping they will be put to the sword at a relentless gallop. Clearly the horse has to improve to beat KS but I think he has a good chance of giving him a run for his money.
tdk
At the Start
It was a slowly run race, Ardross and slowly run races will always see inferior horses finish much closer to their superiors than they "should" (especially when the superior horse's main asset is stamina)
Denman still has something to find with Kauto Star on the book, but nothing he did today suggests that he isn't capable of doing just that.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I actually think that a slow pace is more likely to catch out Kauto Star's jumping, but that is just a personal viewpoint.
Denman did it very well in a very slow race not run to suit, the time was slower than the novice chase and much slower than the PP hcp yesterday.
This race didnt tell us nothing new.
The Listener needs softer ground and more use of him.Even in this conditions he jumped superb and back in softer ground could win big races.
About Kauto Star
if the Gold Cup was run at Haydock and 3 miles he would be odds on but the race is run at Cheltenham and the distance is 3m2f.
I think Denman is better suited by the conditions and is having more a Gold Cup campaign than Kauto. The problem is he is in the same connections and there is a one million bonus.
This race didnt tell us nothing new.
The Listener needs softer ground and more use of him.Even in this conditions he jumped superb and back in softer ground could win big races.
About Kauto Star
if the Gold Cup was run at Haydock and 3 miles he would be odds on but the race is run at Cheltenham and the distance is 3m2f.
I think Denman is better suited by the conditions and is having more a Gold Cup campaign than Kauto. The problem is he is in the same connections and there is a one million bonus.
Shadow Leader
At the Start
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Believe you me, Harry Findlay ain't gonna be feeling magnanimous enough to sacrifice any chance of Denman winning the Gold Cup so that Clive Smith can pocket another million quid!
The GC will be a whole different scenario, as was the Hennessy, which was a big-field race run at a good gallop. Today was a small field race run tactically, and on v soft ground. Maybe Denman didn't enjoy being out in front so much of the time and dossed a bit - that was no doubt done to put The Listener out of countenance. I wouldn't underestimate Denman come GC time, but I still see the result being KS 1st, then Denman on usual ground conditions. Soft ground might reverse that tho
I cannot imagine the Gold Cup field is going to be that big this year and the ground was not very soft today...it was verging on good goind.
I think it will be a small enough field come March and Denman will have to do much if not all the donkey work.
I think it will be a small enough field come March and Denman will have to do much if not all the donkey work.
Gaz's Way De Solzen
Apprentice
What do we take from Mossbank's performance there? ? ?
Ran a decent race and lets not forget, he is a handicapper.
Ran a decent race and lets not forget, he is a handicapper.
A perfectly adequate run from Denman...within a couple of furlongs it was clear the very nature of the race would ensure there would be no fireworks.
In an average year he would be a worthy favourite...but he should even be second favourite for this years renewal.
In an average year he would be a worthy favourite...but he should even be second favourite for this years renewal.
Gaz,
Mossbank is a handicapper based on a novice season when he was wrong the whole time. It worked out well for him in terms of being able to pick up two nice prizes to start this year but he will not be a handicapper in the long run believe you me
Mossbank is a handicapper based on a novice season when he was wrong the whole time. It worked out well for him in terms of being able to pick up two nice prizes to start this year but he will not be a handicapper in the long run believe you me
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Mossbank is a handicapper because he ran in a handicap?
Does that make Denman a handicapper? Azertyuiop?
Does that make Denman a handicapper? Azertyuiop?
Mossbank is a young horse and possibly the best - certainly the most promising - chaser in Ireland right now [to my eye, untutored as I am in the finer points of the Irish scene]
He's just come 2nd in a Graded chase - to more or less dismiss him as a 'handicapper' is a bit daft - you may as well say Denman's a handicapper coz he ran in the Hennessy
I notice in several different threads on this board that there seems to be tendency to 'pigeon-hole' horses, as if they can never improve or lose form [inc by a couple of people who should know better] - some horses for whatever reason get a lot better with age, some are very good in their novice/juvenile years and then tail off. Horses are not machines, and particularly at the stage Mossbank has reached, can be open to quite a bit of improvement
Gaz's Way De Solzen
Apprentice
Fair enough guys.
Thanks again, im learning.
Thanks again, im learning.
uncle goober
At the Start
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Todays win was perfectly satisfactory.
It was a slowly run race, Ardross and slowly run races will always see inferior horses finish much closer to their superiors than they "should" (especially when the superior horse's main asset is stamina)
Denman still has something to find with Kauto Star on the book, but nothing he did today suggests that he isn't capable of doing just that. [/b][/quote]
No really
Somehow I remember Beef or Salmon in his pomp quickening away to win slowly run Grade 1 races far more impressively.
I agree with Galileo - 2 Denman and 12s Exotic Dancer - those prices strike me as bizarre on what we have seen so far.
Spot on, or to be more precise my take on the race.
So far as i can see it all depends on "when" Denman decides to take it up and start hammering through the sections. If he leaves it too late then he risks falling into KS's greater tactical speed. If he goes too soon, then any horse can get caught out thus and empty. But to my mind KS has never had a stamina punishing run at this trip, on this course before, and as such he's going into new territory. He might very well be able to respond with flying colours, but Sam Thomas really has a duty to find out, and set sail for home earlier than he migth otherwise do and see what happens? In essence, give the horse a chance to lose the race, rather than play into KS's hands.
Shadow Leader
At the Start
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So, we do agree occasionally?! 
I take each issue on its merits Dom, and don't allow one to over lap into another, (it makes one irrationally vitriloic you know) but fear not, I've spent about 90 minutes churning away at the grade 1 class of 2005 novice hurdlers and have thrown up some further explanations that put's staying hurdles back in the dock.....more of that later.
The key to Gold Cup I firmly believe lies in the difference of the two running styles. Denman jumps straight and accurately, and can do so at speed. he also looks as if he's got the greater stamina. If he starts to take it up from 2 miles out, Kauto is going to be going into unknown territory, especially with two tricky fences coming near the end when any tiring will be penalised.
I think he's got to set the target and challenge kauto to either try and match him stride for stride, or lay up. Today's run taught us nothing other than Nick Mordin needs to go back to his drawing board.
The key to Gold Cup I firmly believe lies in the difference of the two running styles. Denman jumps straight and accurately, and can do so at speed. he also looks as if he's got the greater stamina. If he starts to take it up from 2 miles out, Kauto is going to be going into unknown territory, especially with two tricky fences coming near the end when any tiring will be penalised.
I think he's got to set the target and challenge kauto to either try and match him stride for stride, or lay up. Today's run taught us nothing other than Nick Mordin needs to go back to his drawing board.
Kauto Star will not be the only one going into unknown territory if Denman ploughs on 2 miles out. Its all well and good talking about a horse trying to draw the sting out of a horse like Kauto Star (who has yet to show any stamina doubts at all) but its extremely tough to make a big move early in the race like a Gold Cup. He'll need to judge it right or else he'll be swallowed up by Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer...he probably will anway.
Kauto Star looked awesome when he was given a lead and a strong gallop on Tuesday in the King George. Assuming the ground is good (possibly even better) it will be extremely difficult to get him off the bit let alone draw the sting from him.
I would add what an absolute cracker Beef Or Salmon ran today. On ground way to fast he finished well and I personally think if he was the same horse today as he was 2-3 seasons ago he would have been a comfortable winner of todays race given the way it unfolded.