Lexus Chase

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At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
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Ireland
Final declarations...

Exotic Dancer
Cane Brake
Glenfinn Captain
Light On The Broom
War Of Attrition
Neptune Collonges
Slim Pickings
Snowy Morning
The Listener
 
Surely history teaches us that WOA's runs at Christmas in this sort of ground really don't mean that much. If he finishes in the places having run respectably for a long way then I wouldn't be getting too disappointed
 
I would have thought his performance the last day was of decent enough quality to be honest
 
Ground should be on the good side by tomorrow which will not suit The Listener but should do most of the others.
 
I think Neptune Collonges will win it as well but the price does nothing for me.

Ground will be too good for The Listener and I could see him finishing out of the places. Exotic Dancer has not convinced me this season and not sure the race will be run to suit him either.

War Of Attrition is a possible but again hard to be too confident in his chances.

The two I will be looking at with place possibilities are Snowy Morning and Glenfinn Captain. Mullins was interviewed and said the horse has not disappointed him that much this season as he has expected the poor runs given the horses poor work at home. However he said he has noticed improvement in the last few weeks so a better run can be expected with conditions to suit.

Glenfinn Captain has plenty to improve on but I think he is at least a Grade 2 horse, the step up to three miles should suit and the drying conditions will be a big help.

Both have question marks, but at 16/1 and 20/1 respectively I think they are better options than the shorter priced types with question marks over them (with the obvious exception of Neptune Collonges).
 
5/1 WOA looks a Pricewise to me. I'm in the camp that was impressed the last day, he tanked along most of the way.
 
Exotic Dancer ran a smasher in the Old Roan and should be forgiven his run at Haydock as the tactics were all wrong. It`ll be tough to beat Neptune Collonges but he`s a better animal than WOA and The Listener.
 
Euronymous said:
Exotic Dancer ran a smasher in the Old Roan and should be forgiven his run at Haydock as the tactics were all wrong. It`ll be tough to beat Neptune Collonges but he`s a better animal than WOA and The Listener.
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My thoughts exactly. I can't help but feel he's the forgotten horse, how he's longer than both WOA and the Listener I'll never know, it's hardly like they've been in the form of their lives lately. I've never been Exotic Dancer's biggest fan but he had excuses for his poor runs at the tail end of last season and his run in the old Roan was very encouraging particularly over an inadequate trip. IMO his jumping seems to suffer when they go off a good clip in the early stages so the slower they go tomorrow the more confident i'll feel.

Don't get me wrong if Neptune Collonges turns up and runs to his best I expect him to take this comfortably but he never seems to be at his best FTO and if anything in the field has the ability to capitalise on even a slightly below par run from NC then it's Exotic Dancer. Whilst I was tempted to go in heavy on NC I just have that little bit too much doubt at the current prices and the fact I managed to get a bit on ED at 9/1 earlier in the week has cemented my decision.
 
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DukeofMarmalade said:
IMO his jumping seems to suffer when they go off a good clip in the early stages so the slower they go tomorrow the more confident i'll feel.
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Not sure about that. Pulled very hard off a relatively easy gallop at Haydock and jumped like a pig that day as well. I would have thought the faster they go, the better it will suit Exotic Dancer actually.

Neptune Collange's record first time out is enough to put me off backing him at 11/8 or shorter, despite the fact he probably won't lack much for fitness. The ground should suit War of Attrition, but I can't help but feel that he comes to himself in the spring.

Will be interesting to see how Neptune Collanges is ridden - would imagine he'll be prominent in an effort to stop The Listener having things his own way up front.

I've backed Slim Pickings EW at 33's - was running a cracking race in the Hennessey until rooting four out I think it was and the drying ground should suit.
 
I would agree Exotic would definately want to come off a fast pace.

NC to beat WOA in a SFC is the bet in this race cant see any other outcome.
 
For me, most of ED's best runs have come in races with moderate paces. None of his three big runs at the end of the 06/07 season, for example - winning the Cotswold, his Gold Cup second and his Betfair Bowl win - were really truly-run races for one reason or another.
 
Disappointing to see Trafford Lad fade close home....really surprised he did not see out the 3 miles better than that.
 
Delighted for Exotic Dancer. Finally gets his Grade 1. Travelled and jumped well. Think Neptunes was getting a little tired when he fell.
 
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