Lincoln handicap

Marb said:
I like the look of Darkness first time after the gelding operation.
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I was going to back this but it hasnt run for a long time.when I was looking through the trends it said nothing over 212 days.
Mind you,the trends are there to be broken.
 
Darkness was his second selection in the Weekender.

I've long suspected there's a flow of inside information to the RP offices and he (especially) and Segal are just very good at sorting the wheat from the chaff.

It's also possible that he doesn't have the final editorial say in what gets printed.

I know of someone who had an item published there which ultimately didn't truly reflect the thoughts he submitted.
 
Outsider said:
I was going to back this but it hasnt run for a long time.when I was looking through the trends it said nothing over 212 days.
Mind you,the trends are there to be broken.
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The conspiracy theorist in me gets to run riot in situations like these. He tells me that the reason he's been off so long is get him off the radar and juiced up with plenty of time to get the juice out of his system but still leave the effects of it to manifest itself on the track.
 
There are probably fewer plots in the Lincoln than in many of the other big mile handicaps. But some trainers clearly target the race more than others.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The conspiracy theorist in me gets to run riot in situations like these. He tells me that the reason he's been off so long is get him off the radar and juiced up with plenty of time to get the juice out of his system but still leave the effects of it to manifest itself on the track.
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Maybe that's why he didnt enter Orbaan.
But he will have to accept being 2nd to Irish admiral.
 
With the best will in the world I must confess that I haven’t got a clue. All I hope for is some pointers from the race for later runs. Good luck to all of you who have taken (or will take) the plunge.
 
Barjon and DO, surely it then comes down to the best plotters and that little bit of luck. Has anyoe have any numbers on trainers' strike rates for the Lincoln. I used to keep an eye on Paul Cole's runners in this race butthat was some time ago and ,as we know, things change (if they don't stay the same.
 
United Front is a huge price at 33/1. He’s clearly a better horse on the all weather but he’s running today off a 15lb lower mark than his AW rating if you include the 3lb claim.

And it’s not like he’s utterly useless on turf, his last few runs on it have demonstrated that he’s more than capable of being competitive off 92. True whatever wins this will need plenty in hand but if could transfer some or all of his AW form to these conditions, he’d have plenty in hand himself.

He’s a whopping 20lb better off with Notre Belle Bete compared to the trial and while it’s probably wishful thinking with regards to the win, 33/1 7 Places makes plenty of appeal.
 
Should have posted this here

Notre Belle Bete looked cooked last time out but suddebly a shishkin-like turbo kicked in.

Gotta be worth a tenner EW 11/1 + 6 places

Add to that a fiver RFC on William Haggas's pair
 
barjon said:
With the best will in the world I must confess that I haven’t got a clue. All I hope for is some pointers from the race for later runs. Good luck to all of you who have taken (or will take) the plunge.
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It really isn't the kind of race in which to take a plunge; tentative dabbles, more like, and up to the calves with one.

These are my figures for the race, done on Thursday, with the synopsis written yesterday morning. I'm not sure I would want to put anyone off anything they feel remotely enthusiastic about. The figures (MON column) take into account all form going back to the start of last season:

[TABLE="width: 515"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]MON
124+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD] United Front
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]8-8
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]p A
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17
[/TD]
[TD] Safe Voyage
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]9-10
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[TD]e d
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD] Notre Belle Bete
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]8-8 5ex
[/TD]
[TD]128
[/TD]
[TD]? e I
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD] What's The Story
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]9-3
[/TD]
[TD]126
[/TD]
[TD]+ t?
[128]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD] Fame And Acclaim
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]8-11
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]e I y
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15
[/TD]
[TD] Scottish Summit
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]8-8
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14
[/TD]
[TD] Brunch
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]9-6
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16
[/TD]
[TD] Marie's Diamond
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]9-4
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]y
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD] Revich
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]8-11
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18
[/TD]
[TD] Another Batt
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]8-10
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD][124]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD] Eagleway
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]8-7
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]e AN
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD] Johan
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]9-4
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD] Hortzadar
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]8-6
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]129e
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD] Darkness
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]8-11
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]? e Fr
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1
[/TD]
[TD] Irish Admiral
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]8-13
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]f
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13
[/TD]
[TD] Ametist
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]8-10
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p +t?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD] Broken Spear
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]8-2
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD] Modern News
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]9-7
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD] Mujtaba
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD] Teodolina
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]8-5
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD] Saleymm
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]8-13
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]p AW
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19
[/TD]
[TD] Rogue Bear
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]8-3
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Mujtaba and Modern News are the sexy ones turning all the punters’ heads, with their respective trainers’ excellent records in the race probably telling their own story. Neither has any eyecatching entries at this stage, though. Ifthe ratings are anything to go by, it looks like the pace is likely to be among the higher drawn half but if they go too fast they could end up stopping. I’m going to ignore the draw, back one or two from each side and hope for the best.

I took Notre Belle Bete (12/1), Scottish Summit (50/1) and United Front (40/1) during the week. The first-named I took because Paul Kealy put it up and when I read his case for it I knew it would end up high on my figures so I followed him in half-blind. Scottish Summit looks entirely exposed and vulnerable to the improvers but he’s handicapped to win a £20k Saturday handicap so probably should be around the 20/1 mark. The last-named’s form has taken off on the All-Weather since he was gelded but there’s no conclusive proof that he needs a synthetic surface. At the price, I’m happy to pay to find out as his AW mark is 13lbs higher than here.

The only other one I’ll be backing is Safe Voyage (40s tops at the moment). He is the established class horse in the race, the trainer has won it from only three runners in the last ten years and the claimer won on his only ride for him this season, at 33/1. The horse was pushing G1 level, beaten a head in a mile G2 at Leopardstown 18 months ago and officially rated 116 at his peak.

The chances are one of the hotpots will win but I can’t split them and I don’t really want to dutch them so I’ll probably have to settle for a place return to cover the outlay.

But you never know; racehorses are only human…
 
Outsider said:
I was going to back this but it hasnt run for a long time.when I was looking through the trends it said nothing over 212 days.
Mind you,the trends are there to be broken.
Click to expand...

I don't blame anyone for backing other horses in the race.

Its just a thing of mine to look for horses that may improve after being gelded on the flat, especially in big showcase handicaps.

Likewise, I will be watching Simon Crisfords horse closely with future races in mind. He is one of, (if not the only colt) in today's race so if he can get placed I would see it as a very good run first time out and he could turn out to be the group horse for the future.

I wish there was more to the flat and big handicaps than the above but in recent seasons I just look for the horse who has improved the most since being gelded.

It doesn't always work and sometimes can become more complicated as there might be four or five that fit profile in any given race but it's definately worked for me a few times.

A horse can improve stones after a gelding op..

In todays case its Darkness's first run since being gelded so he could either run very well or maybe he won't improve at all and finish down the field.

I would also upgrade any run by a filly in big handicaps against colts and geldings and rate that form highly in the context of them taking on their own sex in future races.

Teodolina's the only filly in today's Lincoln. If she could finish in the first 8 or so places I would watch her in a fillies only handicap next time out. Or even a lesser class of race against the colts and geldings again.
 
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There you go as predicted not one person even mentioned the winner..........bet over the jumps lay on the flat and you'll live longer:lol:
 
The eventual winner was formerly trained by Haggas now with Mick Channon.

I can't say I am massively surprised. A competitive 20 runner flat handicap goes the way of an outsider shock horror lol.

The horse that finished second has run well though.
 
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