Lingfield Trends Analysis

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Bruce_Savage

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Hey there guys/girls Bruce speaking,

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Would someone like to explain why there is a;

-15% decrease in the lowest winning OR figure from October to December?
-11% decrease in the highest winning OR figure from May to June

Dataset is based on (6570 Winners since 1997)
 
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Working on the basis of exploiting the handicap mark to your favour, the potential for finding profitable bets would be taking advantage of the market in its lowest point.

How can we define the strong market? I'd go along with the theory that a strong market is when the fields are maximising their potential so we'll look at the highest OR and whereby the entry level i.e the minimum to win is also at its strongest

How can we define the weak market? I'd say that surely a weak market would be determined by how low a rating your horse needs to have in order to win whilst offsetting this by having a low highest winning OR.

Strongest Point: Septemner - November
Weakest Point: April - June

I'm not sure how to assess the graph to find when horses are making their climb up the handicaps? theoretically they would have to come down when racing is at its toughest (October-November) and attack the markets when they are at their weakest which (Apr-May) probably why Mark Johnston does so well with everyone focusing on the flat (turf) season.

Using the Average OHR we can see there is a steady decline from October-December (8%) then a gradual increase in the new year (3%) till March.

If we know that horses are still declining untill the turn of the New Year then what are the sort of horses we should be backing now at this point in time?

From a low rated horse's point of view, your oposition are going to be at their most vulnerable when they are in the ascendancy and from a high rated horses point of view your opposition are at their most vulnerable in decline.

I'm going to go with anything that has improved throughout October-November and maybe declined in from the turn of the new year till April-June time meeting the more well handicapped sorts.

Tomorows cards might prove interesting;

200 / SWEET SECRET (72)

OCT: 65
NOV: 67

230 / CASTLEMORIS KING (66)

SEP: 52
OCT: 60
NOV: 67

Probably have a cheeky double on these tomorrow then?
 
Well that went wrong! big time...

Anyone want to try interpret this, the handicaps on the All Weather from 2005 to date (6000+ Winners)

I have to catch the train now so I'll be home about 11ish and will see if we can decypher the information for profit.

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Don't forget that Lingfield hosts 20+ essentially turf meetings during the summer, as well as mainly turf with one or two AW races, i.e. mixed surface meetings. That would throw out your curve for the number of AW meetings. For example, next year the course is down for 85 fixtures, a quarter of which will not be wholly on the AW, and, of those which are on the AW, many will be for 2 y.o.'s (nurseries, not handicaps) and 3 y.o. maidens (no proven track record).

The track is harrowed quite heavily in the winter, due to frosts and snow, and it is now actually quite old - in fact, it really is due to for a new surface - as against in 2005, when it had a little more spring in its rubbery step! I'm not sure which year they actually flipped the surface right over (maybe 2007) but that would also have had a slight impact on the feel of the surface, making it run a little softer, as the old top surface had become quite compacted.

So, instead of presenting a standard equivalent of Good, and while pretty much all AW tracks are called 'Standard' on any day of the year, there have been subtle differences over the past few years. Just like Wolverhampton was hurling up divots the size of cricket balls a few months ago, but is now calmed down by finer harrowing, so Lingfield hasn't presented a totally standard 'Standard' for some time.

That probably doesn't help you in the slightest!
 
The one thing I can decipher from this is that you have the longest train rides home known to man. London Victoria to Ulan Bator????
 
Very interesting points, maybe we can continue this dicussion at a later date.

Bruce
 
granger said:
Bruce, could you tell us your approach to betting in lets say 3-5 sentences?
Click to expand...

Sorry Granger that wouldn't be within keeping of the context of this thread but I'm more than willing to accept a private message from you.
 
1... pick the horse with the same name as a member of the family

2... pick the horse which winked at you in the paddock

3... back the horse carrying any number you consider to be lucky

4... back the one which so-and-so's head lad told a chap at the pub who knows the barmaid, who's dating the gardener at the manor house, who's told his cycle club, one of whom is your best mate and has told you it's a nailed-on cert

5... back anything put up on here by Granger, EC1, Desperate Dan in competitions, and - at this time of year - Luke

Howzat?
 
Bruce,

do you have a graph of the quality of races staged in each of these months, and if not, don't you thank that would be important? If Lingfield staged only 0-85 handicaps in April, and only 0-55 handicaps in May, don't you think this would impact the average ratings of winners in those months?
 
rorydelargy said:
Bruce,

do you have a graph of the quality of races staged in each of these months, and if not, don't you thank that would be important? If Lingfield staged only 0-85 handicaps in April, and only 0-55 handicaps in May, don't you think this would impact the average ratings of winners in those months?
Click to expand...

Good point!

Something I've overlooked, lucky for the forum I've broken down all the data into 0-60, 0-65 etc earlier this month so it wouldn't take long to put everything together.

Then the results may be more valid.
 
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Good morning Rory,

Heres a 0-65 graph that has been made using the data from all - all weather tracks since 2005.

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How about reversing the trends? if we reverse the graph then surely if we find a horse that has a similar profile he'll always be well in?
 
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350 Kempton tomorrow based on the inverted 0-65 class trend.

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The two horses for me that represent the closes to the trend are BOOKIESINDEXBOY & DANZOE - Danzoe is actually showing signs of levelling out and if he won of 65 today then that would produce a flat line finish for December.

The former Bookiesindexboy is just a Southwell specialist, would be nice to see him go well here.

Both drawn out in the Carpark though!
 
Must say I don't really make much about graphs and that but the bottom image made me chuckle, It looks like someone has given a pack of felt tips to a primary school pupil with graph paper and they have doodled all over it. lol

I must admit I find that graph hard to weigh up and there are too many similar blues to work out which horse is which, either that or I need another trip to specsavers.
 
Bruce,

you say you've identified a trend - I'd argue that while there may be a trend, it isn't demonstrated in your impressive looking graphs; if there is one, you should be able to explain it in plain English. You also talk about "reversing the trend" and "reversing the graph". Can you tell me what this means, and how it will help identify winners? I can't help feel that mapping the average official ratings of winners (I take it this is what you're doing) isn't providing any meaningful insight as it stands.
 
I think you should enter a 20-ft version of that for next year's Turner Prize, Brucey, minus the analysis table. In fact, mount it on a twirling dais and call it "Remembrance of Forgetting" or some such incomprehensible nonsense, and you're a shoo-in. (And much better prize money, too!)
 
Going to take a little bit of a different approach to this, based on the AW Handicap trends from earlier up the page, this time of year is flat on three aspects - maybe I should be looking at horses that are running with the same OR?

13:50 Southwell - Eastern Gift (60-60-60) @ 10-1
14:55 Southwell - Hits Only Jude (71-71-69) @ 16-1
15:30 Southwell - Fearless Poet (50-50-50) @ 3-1
18:20 Wolverhampton - Abriachan (67-67-67) @ 33-1
18:50 Wolverhampton - Tamareen (74-74-74) @ 6-1
20:20 Wolverhampton - Loyalty (95-95-95) @ 9-2
20:50 Wolverhampton - Dollycolman (47-47-47) @ 9-1

Might aswell have a £5 win bet on each!
 
Hmm some interesting results there! - if I had got 12-1 on Tamareen instead of 6-1 it would have been a different story...

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I think I've learnt how to interpret the charts, having put a semantic context into the script it has turned out to show a Handicap Hurdles profit of over £190 since October! and that was using the context of;

Avg - Used to determin the level of the field, if the Avg is going down then you should attend to fields where the majority of horses are going down in the handicap and visa versa if the line going up.

LQ - Used to determin the last running mark compared to the current mark of today, if the line is going up then you'd want a horse improving in the weights and visa verse for a declining line.

HQ - Used to determin the level of performance of the horses last 3 runs including the latest effort, if the line is going down then you'd want a decline in horse ratings.

/

*EDIT*
[Finding contenders from todays runners]
 
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What I'm looking for in December with Handicap hurdles is that the majority of the field are dropping in the weights whilst my prospect of the winner is having a larger drop in the weights whilst coming off a steady bout of runs off the same mark.

15:45 Hereford

Think I'm going to give this race a little test, 12 out of the 16 runners are dropping in the weights after their last run (Box ticked) this leads me to Bringewood Belle who went off 13/2 for the Mares Gold Cup in February off 98 and had put herself in race winning contention off that mark and off 97 consecutively - once at Aintree!, although lets not beat around the bush she finds nothing in the final part of the race.[Consistantcy box ticked). She now finds herself off 85 today, a massive hike [Box ticked] and running off the lower etchelons of 10 stone in a 0-95 instead of 0-125 and 0-115. The trip may bring out an improved performance in her or she'll be gone within the first mile and half but I'm prepared to take the risk.
 
The little girl run well to be fair to her! I got some 25's before hand but really thought I was in for a winning bet there!
 
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