Long Walk Hurdle

T

Triptych

At the Start
Joined
Jun 2, 2003
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This is probably the race I'm looking forward to most tomorrow. With question marks over Jonjo O'Neill's stable form and Hardy Eustace running over a distance I think he's run over only once before I think Chief Dan George could be good value at 14/1. He'll stay the trip no problem and he should be better for his last run.
 
I reckon there's a chance we might just get that rarest of things tomorrow? A truly run staying hurdle :eek:

There's a couple of horses in the field (Special Envoy and Sonnyanjoe) who've run pretty quick times previously to suggest they can bang out a respectable series of sections. That being so, I can't see what the incentive would be to play into the hands of those we know/ suspect have the superior tactical speed, but question marks over their ability to see the whole trip out without some assistance in the pace (Hardy Eustace, BJK and Kasbah Bliss).

Mind you, if Jonjo's under suspicion at the moment, so must Peter Bowen be 0 from 26 in December, it's the only thing stopping me having a rattle at Special Envoy
 
Have had a small bet on Hardy Eustace for the Champion Hurdle at 33's..

Increasingly coming round to the idea that the CH rather than the Stayers will be his Cheltenham target, as, it seems, is Dessie Hughes.. that said, I would be slightly dissapointed if he didn't see out the trip tommorrow..

While I won't be backing him tommorrow, it's worth remembering that Black Jack Ketchum's form is the best staying hurdling form by a distance of those lining up tommorrow, though it is by no means bombproof.. ground should be ideal as well..
 
Originally posted by trackside528@Dec 21 2007, 11:52 PM
While I won't be backing him tommorrow, it's worth remembering that Black Jack Ketchum's form is the best staying hurdling form by a distance of those lining up tommorrow.
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What form would that be then? And where as he has claims I'm not sure I'd be so bullish as to suggest that it's the best by a "distance".

I can only assume you're doing one of two things?

1) Using novice form
2) Rating him through Drever at Aintree

At 24F+ in open company, his only win in four attempts has come in the West Yorkshire Hurdle, when he gave weight, and toughed it out against that well known scrapper, Faasel.

I think you can easily make a case to suggest that Special Envoys 4L defeat by Inglis Drever in the Long Distance Hurdle, when receiving 8Ibs is easily the equal of any form that BJK can put up? It also has the advantage of being a bit more recent too. Inglis Drever ran a PB at Newbury according to his RPR of 170, so the level of performance can't really be questioned. At Aintree when he was beaten by BJK he palpably didn't act and recorded a rating of 156, some 14Ibs down, and 12Ibs short of what he did at Cheltenham in winning the World Hurdle.

We can probably go some way towards working it out. You probably need to rate BJK through Mighty Man, which means he was 13L's adrift at Aintree.

If we accept that Drever was at the top of his game at Cheltenham, then we can say that having beaten Mighty Man 0.75L's, BJK might have finished 13.75L's behind had he stood up. At 24F, 0.8Ibs costs a horse about 1L, so with an 8Ib pull at Newbury, Drever was another 10L's on top of his winning distance of 4L's, for a projected superiority off levels of 14L's.

If this crude way of viewing things is accepted, than BJK is 0.25L's ahead of Special Envoy, which means he's destined to get into a fight for the line, which will put his breathing to the test. The extent to which Mighty Man at Liverpool, or Drever at Newbury, were eased is debatable. BJK beat Drever at Aintree by some 9L's so probably was being pushed out. Even if we accept that Drever was eased a bit last time out and that the 4L's flatters Special Envoy a bit, this might easily be wiped out by the fact that the RP reckon he's run 2Ibs higher than his World Hurdle mark, and recorded a new PB in the process. 2Ibs would be worth 2.5L's quicker, which needs giving back to Special Envoy, as he's being compared against a higher benchmark figure.

In this case then, Special Envoy is potentially 2.25L's ahead of BJK, with the arbitrating factor likely to be built around easing.

Under such an analysis Special Envoy's level of form in coming second to an Inglis Drever who was at his peak earlier this month, is the equal, and possibly ahead of anything BJK has done. His strongest form would be the 13L second to Mighty Man, unless of course you're seeking to invoke novice form?

There is a time when you do of course have to invoke novice form at certain points in horses career development, but I don't see that this applies to BJK now. He's run enough times in open company for us to get a handle on him, and we shouldn't really be reduced to grasping into Christmas Past for evidence. It's also possibel that Kasbah Bliss has some useful lines to Grade 1 performers in France too that could be considered, though many of his wins and better performances have come at 20F
 
I struck two bets with a colleague last night - I laid him BJK at even money against Hardy and, even easier money, I laid him (wait for this!!!) Harchibald at 20/1 in the Stayers' Hurdle!!!!!!! :laughing: I was generous enough to make that WAR though so that'll be a void bet. I can only assume he'd had far more to drink than I thought he had.....

As for today, I think Oscar Park will run a big race.
 
I don't like going against you Gal :D :suspect: , learned the hard way last time..but ...to me Hardy Eustace looks the lay of the month at just over 2/1..will need the horse box to stay this far after being campaigned for so long at shorter distances.
 
Strange race in which I can rule out all of them for at least one reason. However I really don't fancy anything down the field at all - Special Envoy? 2 wins in 11 starts over hurdles, one in a 3k maiden the other in a 3k novice. Gubbed on fast ground at Ascot albeit over a shorter trip. Everyone is looking at the improvement when stepped up to 3 at Haydock, but the field looked full of chasers having prep runs to me. I am tempted just to lay outright.

I want to back Kasbah Bliss but the ground is a huge concern.

Which leaves Hardy or BJK. 25f on GF is not the first place I would think of for shoo-in territory for the former - but I really like his class. BJK is a horse that I have struggled to get (guess?) right. But I suppose if I thought he was going to win a top class staying race, it would be on quick ground in the absence of Drever or Mighty Man.

Will Hardy battle as tough in the 25th furlong? Probably!

Tough race.
 
If I'd backed Katchit last week and Hardy this week (I didn't) I'd be getting extremely pissed off about the lengths of starts some horses are being given in these races.
 
:laughing:

So Jonjo's finally admitted it, his horse doesn't stay. I'm slightly annoyed with Special Envoy there, as I'm sure he was pretty well alongside BJK coming over the last and closing him down, but then the camera cuts away and it isn't clear whether Brennan packed up on him, or whether the great non staying BJK dug deep for this third.

Where now for BJK?
 
I thought BJK and Hardy Eustace stayed well enough...simple not good enough against a well ridden animal. HE has little chance in the Champion much the same as BJK.
 
I think it was a good front running ride by the winner, but was the winner on merit, he didnt steal the lenghts in front Osana did last week.

This proves Mighty Man did it fine in this race last season.


About the others
Kasbah Bliss very dissapointing,


BJK is well exposed for me and is a horse to avoid in any company.


About Hardy, possibly not staying but is not the horse he was and has no chance in either the Stayers or the Champion Hdl.



Inglish Drever with Mighty Man out of the picture has only possible danger : Blazing Bailey and this horse is not running this season as well as he did last season.
 
That was more due to his going so fast early on rather than him behind 10 lenghts ahead nearer the tape as Osana was.

Agree pretty much with Suny. BJK is exposed and the trip is not the problem. He didnt even travel that strongly today...pretty clear McCoy was holding on to nothing far before stamina came into play.
 
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