Long Walk Hurdle

Another typical (and all too common) case of all the jocks bar the one on the winner being caught napping. They all think "such and such will come back to us easy, don't have to worry about that" and hand out massive starts. It's becoming tedious.

Good to hear Jonjo has finally realised what we all knew anyway - that BJK doesn't stay!!! So has my colleague...:laughing:
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Dec 22 2007, 07:29 PM
Oh, and nothing can touch Drever in the Stayers'. Not even Wichita.
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And what a damning indictment of the division that is, given that this statement is almost certainly true. Can a moderately good horse, who came to staying hurdles somewhat by accident win three grade 1 Championship races? Well the answer is almost certainly yes, and it's not beyond the realms of possibility of course that injury robbed him of a 4th. I'm afraid all it does for me is underline what a phoney division the staying hurdlers are.

Despite being theoretically at the top of their game, two recent winners abandoned the division to go novice chasing and hence diluted the gene pool (with very different levels of success). The best 2 mile hurdlers stay at two miles (no need for them to do anything else really) where as others go novice chasing. Might the time the full shake out has occurred, it stands to reason that the staying hurdlers will be the victims of dilution through trickle down

Not even Wichita? Well to be honest Dom, until such time as we see this one winning in open company, I'd be more scarred of Black Jack Slowboat springing a performance from nowhere. The only other place I can see a threat coming from is across the Channel, or a staying chaser or top handicapper weighted out of chasing, dropping back and trying to force a pace consistent with the supposed grade 1 that the race would have us believe it's combatants are. Star De Mohaison is one we've speculated about L'Antartique is another I've heard punted around.

In a highly hysterical way, and having been on his case ever since the Brit Insurance win when everyone was declaring the second coming of Pegasus, (I wasn't and pretty well stood alone in voicing my doubts). I reckon the horse that might have his chances enhanced after today (in terms of the wider picture) is actually BJK :eek: 20/1 now on the machine and 16's in the offices
 
Drever only a moderately good horse?! What planet are you living on?!?! Look at the performances he pulls out of the bag time and again, (and has done for 4 years now!) whilst consistently beating horses of the calibre of Baracouda, who, lest you've forgotten, was spoken of as being a freak of a racehorse and a superstar by many.

The only realistic threats to him that I can see at the moment are Wichita Lineman or Hardy Eustace.

BJK is no threat - the horse doesn't get the trip, end of story.
 
I dont think anyone can describe ID was a "moderately good horse" but equally I dont think he would have touched Baracouda at his best.
 
Been on the sangria, Suny?! :D

There is no way that Iris's Gift, Limestone Lad and Bannow Bay were better horses than ID. Much as I love Mighty Man I'd hesitate to call him better as well.
 
Warbler, go watch the last World Hurdle again. Moderate horses don't make the last-to-first move that ID made in that.
 
Iris's Gift could quite concieveably be considered better, even if only just, and the others well, maybe just about, on their day. My question is 'so what'?
 
Originally posted by uncle goober@Dec 22 2007, 10:42 PM
Iris's Gift could quite concieveably be considered better, even if only just, and the others well, maybe just about, on their day. My question is 'so what'??
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"So what" is that Inglis Drever cannot conceivably be called only a "moderately good horse".

...and not least, Bannow Bay?! Better than Drever?? What's that all about?!?!?!
 
On this day last year I was fairly impressed with the performance that Lough Derg put up in the Long Walk and made a mental note to keep an eye out for him.I looked at the 25s last night and thought it was fairly tasty.
I came very close to getting matched at 30 on betfair about ten minutes before the off but as the tapes went up I didn't have a penny on him.Coming to the last I consoled myself that the 2/5 place lay on BJK -was looking good.What was a good day could have been a great day.
 
Dont blame Jonjo for running BJK to-day--he has always felt he did not stay.
Derek Smith was the owner who needed to be convinced.

:xmastree: :xmastree: :xmastree:
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Dec 22 2007, 09:41 PM
Warbler, go watch the last World Hurdle again. Moderate horses don't make the last-to-first move that ID made in that.
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If they only have to beat other moderate horses they can!!!

And for the record did I not describe him as "moderatly good"

Yet you've all seized on the word moderate!!! I used the word good too.

But otherwise I stand by it. Gareth you keep a private handicap. You should know what level these horses really running to? As does Dessie, and a few others? I've always been prep[ared to turn over my figures for ridicule, and I'm sure you'll find if you go back into the deep dark days of BJK's alleged highwater mark, you'll find I was one of the first (if the first Person) who said he ain't that good.

I also believe it to be 80% accurate to staying hurdlers.

Will someone remind me again how Drever ended up in staying hurdles? I've got a recollection of the fact that a more fancied Whylie runner got injured (Royal Rosa?). He was slung in because he'd failed to beat Harchibald at Newcastle? and was duly stepped up into the graveyard division? Somone please put me right, as I know I'm half wrong, but the stayers wasn't his intended target that season was it? That he's subsequently dominated it, says it all shrug::
 
Inglis Drever may not have run the same figures as other staying hurdlers in the past decade, but if all arrived at teh starting tape together at their best over 3m at Chelt, i wouldnt bet against him. Top class performer.
 
Fair play to Tom Scudamore, stole the race..

I'd be happy enough with Hardy Eustace to be honest, especially considering he lost a good deal of momentum by clouting the second last and wasn't given a hard time once his chance had gone.. like all the others, was given far too much to do..

Fair play to you Warbler for seeing through Black Jack Ketchum.. one to avoid at all costs..
 
Just looking through BJK's novice form, in the cold light of day it really does not amount to much..

Brit Insurances:
1. BJK
2. Powerstation
3. Travino
4. Back To Bid

Best form is almost certainly his defeat of Blazing Bailey over 2m6f on soft ground in fact..
 
I take the view that the evidence suggests that BJK went wrong in his wind at some time between the Relkeel and the Cleeve .

I am not sure at all that BJK has never stayed 3 miles . I think he is not the horse he was sadly and he no longer stays 3m. I fear though that he still has some sort of wind problem and his recent performances all tend to suggest that he struggles for oxygen when push comes to shove .

We can all use the form lines we like to rubbish his novice form - on the other hand murdering Neptune Collonges who had pushed the World Hurdle winner so close and Travino who had good , albeit questionable due to the ground formlines , with Nicanor cold equally suggest that he was a novice of limitless potential .

He thrashed Blazing Bailey in the Relkeel yet over three furlongs more six weeks later he was punch drunk in fourth. The BJK in the form of the Relkeel could have carried all before him - we will never know.

I agree that it is an indictment of the staying division that Inglis Drever is seemingly unchallenged, an admirable top class horse but I soubt he would have beaten Baracouda in his pomp - it was a battle to beat him when he was in his decline. Although visually impressive at Newbury Special Envoy and Kasbah Bliss hardly did anything for the form yesterday even accepting the very different ground.

As for HE why would it be madness to go for the CH - he did after all beat a top class field to win the AIG and the 2 mile division doesn't look that strong either.
 
Originally posted by Warbler+Dec 22 2007, 09:16 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Warbler @ Dec 22 2007, 09:16 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Shadow Leader@Dec 22 2007, 07:29 PM
Oh, and nothing can touch Drever in the Stayers'. Not even Wichita.
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And what a damning indictment of the division that is, given that this statement is almost certainly true. Can a moderately good horse, who came to staying hurdles somewhat by accident win three grade 1 Championship races? [/b][/quote]
What part of that quote was you not saying Drever is a only moderately good horse?!

Ardross - BJK does not stay 3 miles+. Beating far inferior horses to himself at such a trip does not prove he stays. Anything can stay 6 miles if only lobbing around with no effort asked.
 
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