Lordship

EC1

EC1

On a break
Joined
May 7, 2007
Messages
17,679
Location
late 1960's early 70's
This is a horse thats ready to win probably in the next month given some give in the ground.

LORDSHIP

- on paper looks a pretty average low grade handicapper - but given the correct conditions could be a tasty winner sometime soon.

Overall Record - 98890231390310766094338272760670400459693118915896046 = 9%

====================================================
Good or Faster
9801907609860045998996046 = 4%
Softer than Good
92330316433272760704631115 = 15%
===========================================
August/September/October
803107667606704931189146 = 17%
Rest Of Year
98902313909433827200459658960 = 3%
====================================================
Running within 10 days or less
3130160- 33272660- 4611158- 46 = 21%
Running after 10 days
988- 90293076- 9487074- 00599389- 960- = 0%
====================================================

Combining those 3 factors gives you
0160111

his highest winning mark is 62..so removing any runs when above that rating from those leaves

010111

his last run was off 61..he had just dropped from 65 the race before - so his mark is now perfect for the conditions..which should appear soon.
 
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that 2nd run was over 10f..and as in the past over 10.. he was well beat

he is again multi entered this week

he certainly has his ground..and his mark is 53..lovely

he is down to run tomorrow..and is then entered Tuesday at Leicester over 7f

tomorrow is bang on the 10 day job..420 Warwick 8f

will have a go tomorrow...and if he doesn't win ...will back him on Tuesday if he runs
 
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Excellent stuff. How to you find these EC1? Is it a case of thinking he might need certain conditions and than going digging for the stats to back up your opinion?
 
Gearoid said:
Excellent stuff. How to you find these EC1? Is it a case of thinking he might need certain conditions and than going digging for the stats to back up your opinion?
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its just form breaking..it could be a form of backfitting really i suppose...then again..all form reading is backfitting isn't it?

I just compare a set condition against the average performance basically..i just run patternform and find a criteria that initially give a big % improvement..if one aspect drastically improves strike rate i dig a bit deeper

usually its the ground i look at first..if a horse's form doesn't show big improvement on a surface i tend to lose interest

i could be barking up the wrong tree with this one..but the quick turn out seems to be happening..the run at 10f was a definate no try..now his mark is really juicy..and his next two outings are at trips he can win at.
 
this one been on the go well before WF :D

it should be a good price anyway..

its currently in the 25 - 30 zone on betfair..but highest offer is 8.2
 
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Its a nice angle to find a bet. There was a good stat pointed out to be last year about Donald McCains finding x average improvement after a run. This is obvinusly back fitted too but when dealing with low grade handicappers it must be usefull.
 
Paco Boy would be a simple one..before today he was 11111 over 7f

dig a bit

His strike rate is 52%.

In races with 11 or more runners his form 373d844
less than 11 runners 111111111211234

todays race was 10 runners..but his form would suggest that he prefers smaller fields generally..ie..slower paced races where his speed is important

so even though 7f is his trip..a small field..could be preferable.
 
Not off a yard todayfinishing 7th. 1lb out of the handicap tomorrow. Worth a go.
 
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Gearoid said:
Not off a yard todayfinishing 7th. 1lb out of the handicap tomorrow. Worth a go.
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very strange betting pattern as well..fc/20/1....backed in to 5/1 all day..before the betting show..then drifts out to 12's before the off....never put near the front

one more go tomorrow on it
 
yes ..one more go for me.

the gamble throughout the day today was quite bizarre..then the telling drift

last night it was only offered at about 10/1..yet was in the bottom 3 amongst the 25/1 shots

someone knew something..it was joint fav at 4.00 in the betting shop..then it were like no one wanted it at all

how did it get favouritism then run so poorly..was it too short?

maybe they wanted 20's :)
 
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I was sick when I got to work and saw he was 5/1. was expecting 14/1 but was not up before 12pm. Will be up early tomorrow!
 
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Gearoid said:
I was sick when I got to work and saw he was 5/1. was expecting 14/1 but was not up before 12pm. Will be up early tomorrow!
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yes..it knocked edge off it for me as well..i looked on betfair at 7.30 this morning..gobbled up very small amount at 10.0..then expected to go and have a decent bet in the shop at dinner..at about 12's 14's...couldn't believe it were 5/1 joint fav..walked out pissed off at that price..the late drift just looked real bad then.

tomorrows got to be the day
 
Now that we all know we should delete the thread or like Clive am I just being greedy?
 
This forum clearly being too widely read - the 5/1 on offer early clearly due to someone having a few bob on betfair - he was 8 lb out of the handicap, so this was clearly not the plan. There's not much point getting a horse down in the weights only to punt him when he's "wrong". Good initial work from the forum's own form-breaker, though.
 
rorydelargy said:
This forum clearly being too widely read - the 5/1 on offer early clearly due to someone having a few bob on betfair - he was 8 lb out of the handicap, so this was clearly not the plan. There's not much point getting a horse down in the weights only to punt him when he's "wrong". Good initial work from the forum's own form-breaker, though.
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Jake Payne took 7 off though

I know what you mean obviously..but the horse was well in anyway on his winning form

at least tomorrow he isn't out of the weights
 
Missed this having been away up North.
The comments for tomorrows race on oddschecker ( From Timeform {5 star pick} and the SL) both mention the pattern of the horses perfomances whereas looking at todays this wasn't mentioned.

RDL is obviously right in that connections would not back OOH over the wrong distance. I fear this will not be a price to real money tomorrow. A little more subtlety would have been in order.
 
I cant see why anyone would back a horse on Betfair until the first few firms price up. If anything you should be looking to lay it.

Rory - A good trainer would not leave Lordship off tomorrow as he is 1lb wrong!
 
Gearoid said:
Rory - A good trainer would not leave Lordship off tomorrow as he is 1lb wrong!
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At least the 1 lb wrong still has him on a lower mark than his penultimate start, whereas his mark yesterday was a genuinely tough one. I'm wondering if he's been put up by a tipping service. Mounty???
 
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