Master Minded

I think people who do and who don't ride horses and/or spend time around them [esp in racing yards] are likely to have a very different take on the causes of certain anomalies in racing, so 'horsey' people will sometimes be far removed in their conclusions from those whose take is more stats based.

It's a good thing imo that we get all points of view and angles aired on here.

I think you may well be right about the respective best distances of King's two stable stars, but I really do think you underestimate the effect which viruses - which are very common in yards with all the hot steamy breath, dust, etc etc - can have on the respiratory system of equine athletes. Imo quite a few of King's horses hit a flat spot earlier this season; now they are all performing to what would seem to be their optimum, across all NH disciplines.

As I've pointed out there is more than one barn at King's; it's perfectly possible for only a proportion to underform for such reasons without the others being in the least affected. The reason I pointed it out back in Dec wasn't at all to diss your theory, which I've always pointed out I find fascinating, but to make sure you were aware you *might* be basing it on the performances of a horse - MWDS - which wasn't in optimum health. I would hope that such comments would be taken in the constructive spirit in which they're made!


My estimation of when a horse is not just all out but emptied is based not only on watching them over many years but also on riding them - it's based on body language if you like, and the signs start early but might not be obvious to anyone who's never spent time around horses. Those which usually jump extremely well tend to make the kind of gross blunders we saw with KS and MM when not physically at their best - and/or when exhausted.

Just because they've 'just hit the front' and are being sent on, doesn't necessarily mean they have any reserves! I'm not denying at all that the horlicks KS and MM made of those fences didn't knock them for six, but imo they made those mistakes because they were *already* running on empty.

Whatever diplomacy prompted the Nicholls camp to say today, this is what they said later on yesterday, regarding tactics, and I'm usually inclined to believe what people say before they've had time to think about it too much!

<< Walsh made no secret of his frustration when telling Nicholls afterwards: “I should have held on to him. Usually I have the balls to do what I want.”

The chastened trainer said: “I probably got it wrong trying to tell him to sail on when he would have been better getting a lead. He was idling a bit in front and it is a long run in. I was wrong on the day. It's only a nose but as Ruby says it was the difference between winning and losing. More times out of ten we get it right but Ruby is steaming with me now. I will take the blame.” >>
 
Well all I can do is thank you for your magnamity Headstrong. I must admit admit, i was more than half expecting some belligerent stuff, but fair play, I'm sure anyone who has followed the various threads on this will appreciate it. I know I do. And I still stand to be corrected next season, if i was wrong.
 
On good ground at Cheltenham what would the price up be of Moscow vs MM?
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A fair point. It galled me that it was presumed after MM's QM win that he was just rated so far ahead of Moscow....

We all know the kind of horse Moscow was...he beat what was in front of him and did no more. I refuse to accept that any horse over 2 miles..particularly on good ground..could just gallop all over him and murder him in the way ratings suggested MM could do.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Apr 4 2008, 08:20 PM
This would be the virus that was used selectively during the months of December and January to explain away a few poor performances even though December was very productive for King, and the two months combined gave him 44 winners at a strike rate of 20% for a LSP of 55.91 :what: If King ever finds this virus, can I suggest he bottles it, patents it, and sells it to a few other trainers who could only dream of such chronic under performance.

The explanation for VPU is pretty straight forward imo. I'm sure I must be on record on this forum somewhere, (I certainly am elsewhere) as suggesting that King has had his 2 milers the wrong way round all season. MWDS should have been his 2 miler, and VPU his 2 and half miler.

In the World Hurdle we saw MWDS travel well until he hit that 19.75F to 21F area where he goes out like a light under a strong gallop. In the Champion Chase we saw VPU taken off his feet (but in fairness I can't think of any horse in training who wouldn't have been). But when he's stepped up, he wins. At least my hypothesis is increasingly capable of being supported by factual evidence as things have unfolded, rather than speculation which had little grounding in facts then, and none more now.

As regards Ruby not being at fault;

I thought both Nicholls's and Walsh's revisions of yesterdays events with 24 hours to consider it were most illuminating. Walsh conceeded that it was the jump at the second last that cost Kauto the race, not the tactics, though obviously stopped short of blaming himself, other than to say that it's his job to deliver the horse. Nicholls basically said the horse didn't jump well enough, (though stopped short of saying that the jockey let him go from too far back). If the horses were at the end of their tethers (something I doubt given that both had just hit the front and were starting to assert). Then surely the jockey, if he were going to do anything, should get in closer and at least ensure a safe passage, with a slow jump?. By standing so far off the fence and asking for a big one which is going to require even more energy, makes it even more of Ruby's fault (if the horses were emptying).

Your explanations might hold some water Headstrong, but I think there are increasingly more convincing ones.
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You seem convinced that you've got My Way De Solzen right all year Warbler, and you may be right, but today will be an interesting test; can you tell us pre race how you expect him to perform today. It seems that you expect him to go close to winning but possibly fail in the last 50 yards ~ your pinpointing of his stamina has been frighteningly specific. The other argument is that the horse is either not right physically or mentally and will therefore cave in when pressure is applied in earnest (unless Alan King has fixed his problem of course). For the record I'm in both camps to a degree, but while I agree in broad terms with your non staying argument, I believe your attempt to identify the exact limits of his stamina are bonkers.
 
:D Right you've pretty well answered it Rory, in so far as you've called it how I see it.

My attempts to specifically identify the point where he hits the wall is of course dependent on the pace, as it assumes a true run race (and conveniently allows me a degree of flexibility :P ). Off a moderate pace though, I can see him winning. Off a fast pace I think he'll get mugged having travelled well throughout. Off a muddling pace, God knows shrug:: It's only when we see him over 2 miles that I'll either have to conceed, or claim the bragging rights, but in the meantime I can at least lay claim to VPU being best suited by the extra 4F's+. As I'm sure I've said, I've thought Alan Kings had them the wrong way round all season

The one explanation I can't really dispute in honesty is the 'undetected injury/ hurting'. Other theories have been offered up, and this one strikes me as being the most plausible alternative
 
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