Melbourne Cup

M

Miesque

At the Start
Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
1,059
Location
Newmarket, Suffolk
DUNADEN (FR) Mikel Delzangles 58.5kg
GREEN MOON (IRE) Robert Hickmott 57.5kg
RED CADEAUX (GB) Ed Dunlop 56.5kg
SEA MOON (GB) Robert Hickmott 56.5kg
IT’S A DUNDEEL (NZ) Murray Baker 56kg
MANIGHAR (FR) Peter G Moody 56kg
BROWN PANTHER (GB) Tom Dascombe 55kg
FIORENTE (IRE) Gai Waterhouse 55kg
FORETELLER (GB) Chris Waller 55kg
JOSHUA TREE (IRE) Ed Dunlop 55kg
AHZEEMAH (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 54.5kg
DANDINO (GB) Marco Botti 54.5kg
ETHIOPIA Pat Carey 54.5kg
MOURAYAN (IRE) Robert Hickmott 54.5kg
PUISSANCE DE LUNE (IRE) Darren Weir 54.5kg
ROYAL DIAMOND (IRE) Johnny Murtagh 54.5kg
SANGSTER (NZ) Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young 54.5kg
SUPER COOL Mark Kavanagh 54.5kg
BAYRIR (FR) Chris Waller 54kg
BEATEN UP (GB) Chris Waller 54kg
MASKED MARVEL (GB) Robert Hickmott 54kg
MOUNT ATHOS (IRE) Luca Cumani 54kg
ROYAL EMPIRE (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 54kg
VOLEUSE DE COEURS (IRE) Dermot K Weld 54kg
WALDPARK (GER) Anthony Freedman 54kg
CARLTON HOUSE (USA) Gai Waterhouse 53.5kg
ERNEST HEMINGWAY (IRE) Aidan O'Brien 53.5kg
GLENCADAM GOLD (IRE) Gai Waterhouse 53.5kg
HAWKSPUR Chris Waller 53.5kg
MR MOET Adam Durrant 53.5kg
SEVILLE (GER) Robert Hickmott 53.5kg
SIMENON (IRE) William Mullins 53.5kg
TANBY Robert Hickmott 53.5kg
FAWKNER Robert Hickmott 53kg
JET AWAY (GB) David Hayes 53kg
KELINNI (IRE) Chris Waller 53kg
MAIN SEQUENCE (USA) David Lanigan 53kg
MORIARTY (IRE) Chris Waller 53kg
MY QUEST FOR PEACE (IRE) Peter G Moody 53kg
VEREMA (FR) Alain de Royer Dupre 53kg
BRIGANTIN (USA) Pat Carey 52.5kg
COLOUR VISION (FR) Saeed Bin Suroor 52.5kg
FORGOTTEN VOICE (IRE) Nicky Henderson 52.5kg
LEADING LIGHT (IRE) Aidan O'Brien 52.5kg
MOUDRE Ciaron Maher 52.5kg
SILENT ACHIEVER (NZ) Roger James 52.5kg
THOUGHT WORTHY (USA) Robert Hickmott 52.5kg
IBICENCO (GER) Peter G Moody 52kg
JULIENAS (IRE) Gai Waterhouse 52kg
KESAMPOUR (FR) Peter G Moody 52kg
MR O’CEIRIN (NZ) Ciaron Maher 52kg
PAKAL (GER) Mick Price 52kg
PRECEDENCE (NZ) Bart & James Cummings 52kg
QUINTESSENTIAL (NZ) John Sargent 52kg
ROYAL DESCENT Chris Waller 52kg
SNEAK A PEEK (ITY) Peter G Moody 52kg
SONGCRAFT (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 52kg
LIDARI (FR) Peter G Moody 51.5kg
MASSIYN (IRE) Robert Hickmott 51.5kg
SUN CENTRAL (IRE) William Haggas 51.5kg
TUSCAN FIRE Dan O'Sullivan 51.5kg
DEAR DEMI Clarry Conners 51kg
HARTANI (IRE) Robert Hickmott 51kg
LUCKY CHAPPY (IRE) Pat Carey 51kg
MELEAGROS (IRE) Alan Couetil 51kg
POLISH KNIGHT (NZ) Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes 51kg
RIALYA Lloyd Kennewell 51kg
TRES BLUE (IRE) Gai Waterhouse 51kg
BIOGRAPHER (GB) David Lanigan 50.5kg
GRIS CARO (GB) Jake Stephens 50.5kg
IRONSTEIN Gerald Ryan 50.5kg
LESS IS MORE (FR) David Vandyke 50.5kg
MOTIVADO (GB) David Hayes 50.5kg
PELICANO Tony McEvoy 50.5kg
PRINCE CHERI (FR) David Vandyke 50.5kg
TREMEC (NZ) John P Thompson 50.5kg

Every thing else is on 50kg bar Gai Waterhouse's Order Of The Sun who is on 49.5kg.
 
I'm not a weights and measures man Suny, the clock has served me well over the years combined with more subjective tools and this one has had the ideal prep which many winners have taken in the past. It's been said the horse is going for the race and I can't see it being 25 on the day.
 
Since this race is a lottery, have had small e/w wagers on
Verema, Dear Demi, Simenon, Royal Empire & Dandino.
I reckon I have a 1-5 chance of picking the winner. LOL
 
Heres my views. I doubt I'll be having a bet, but I always get asked several times what I think will win, or if X has a chance. I figured I could just print this off and dish it out rather than go through the same thing over and over. :)

MOUNT ATHOS
Ran well in last years race and was perhaps the best horse on the day and may have won had it been truly run. Is drawn wide today so may encounter trouble in running, or use up too much energy getting over from his wide draw early. Likely to be coming late and fast if held back (probable tactics), and certainly one for the shortlist.

VEREMA
Quite a late foal, who has obviously needed a bit of time. Has really come into it's own in France this year and looks about ready to land a Group 1 race. Has run well fresh before, so the 79 day abscence shouldn't be of concern. What is a slight worry is the faster ground than it's been used to in France. However, it could turn out not to be an issue at all, and has to be one for the short list.

SEA MOON
Only one horse has ever won from stall 7 and that was in the 1930's. Other than that would seem to hold a fair enough chance.

FIORENTE
2nd last year, and better drawn today. Should run well as last years race turned into somewhat of a sprint. However, that aside, he had a hard race a week gone Saturday in the Cox Plate, which could have taken it's toll with only 10 days to recover for this.

SIMENON
An out and out stayer, who may even find this trip on the short side. Also seems to prefer to get it's toe in over the longer trips. If acting on the firmer ground will be coming late and fast, but will the others have flown by then?

VOLEUSE DE COEURS
Slight concern about the faster ground, but it is only slght and all could be OK on that front. Won the Irish St Leger in fine style and seemed to be going from strength to strength. No problem with the distance. Only real concern is if it has settled into being in Australia. Old Trainer had serious concerns about coming over here.

IBICENCO
A very late foal, and ran well at middle distances as a 3yo in soft ground. The longer distance might not be a problem now, but can't help thinking it'll be at it's very best with at least some give in the ground.

ROYAL EMPIRE
Should appreciate the faster ground, but 'slight' concern about the trip at this level. Should be in the mix entering the home straight, but might fade late.

DANDINO
Should run well from an OK stall, but some doubts about the distance at this level. Could get swallowed up late.

BROWN PANTHER
Finished 3.25 lengths 2nd to Mount Athos off level weights before that one ran in last years race. Now giving Mount Athos 2LBS, but does have a better draw in stall 6. He doesn't look totally happy on fast ground. It will probably be faster today than he's encountered before, so doubtful it can get the better Mount Athos, but could still run well and can't be written off.

FAWKNER
Lightly raced and progressive, but risky at the unkown trip.

HAWKSPUR
Same as Fawkner, lightly raced, progressive, but risky at the unkown trip.

TRES BLUE
No 3yo has won in the last 10 years, and concerns on this faster ground.

GREEN MOON
Won the race last year, which wasn't truly run and probably wouldn't have won otherwise. Tough job at the weights.

MASKED MARVEL
Likely to have a tricky draw in stall 2, and doubts about ability retained. Gosden probably pushed it too hard as a 2yo & 3yo and looks to have gone over the top, but could surprise if bouncing back.

SEVILLE
An interesting runner in the way it's been raced. From the same yard as Masked Marvel & Green Moon, has been given time and like Masked Marvel has been raced over inadequate trips this year. Possible, but risky.

DEAR DEMI
Distance is of concern, but could have place prospects. Slim chance of winning, but still a slim chance.

SUPER COOL
Breeding suggests the distance will be an issue. Could still run well though and not without a glimmer of hope.
 
We've beat the price but Lemaire is on. Time to jump ship...

Royal Empire, Tres Blue, Sea Moon & Green Moon would be my idea of value now.
 
I'm with Seville and Simenon. Think Mount Athos would have had a fantastic chance but for d draw. Verema is interesting but has a knee action that makes me think she's much better suited to soft ground. Royal Empire, Voleuse De Coeurs and Dandino complete my list of contenders.

Hopefully 1 of my 2 picks get d rub of d green and can hold off Mount Athos late charge.
 
Dandino, Simenon and Verema I've backed ante post and added Royal Empire today. Worried about Seville and was looking at Dear Demi last night but have to draw the line somewhere I guess. Really looking forward to the race [as ever]. Now I'm retired I can stay up all night listening to it!
 
Anytime the argument this is a great race you can just counter with it is full of UK cast offs. Incredible it still gets the attention (globally) it does.
 
Hamm said:
Anytime the argument this is a great race you can just counter with it is full of UK cast offs. Incredible it still gets the attention (globally) it does.
Click to expand...

Very true to be fair. The Australians are just better at marketing than we are.
 
I'm not sure that it's regarded as a great race, but it is a great racing event, something that we don't seem to have in this country any more. When I was a kid everyone was interested in the Derby and the National. I'd love to be in Australia for Cup day; in fact I do plan to do so at some point.
 
I went two years ago and was thoroughly underwhelmed.

I love the status that racing gets in the press over there and that the national newspapers print full form two days before the race but the event itself was a disappointment. Just full of absolute pissheads.

Derby Day was a bit more enjoyable there and Black Caviar's reception was very impressive but the Cup itself, meh. Breeders Cup or Japan Cup had far better atmosphere.
 
Will have to stick with the original plan of listening to it on a radio in the outback.
 
Fiorente won well really. Funny horse, after his first win in 2011 Moore said he was the second best horse in the stable. Who was first: Workforce? Then ran a stuffy second in the Gordon and disappeared. His 4yo career was miserable until he beat a lot of listed horses in the Princess of Wales.
Must admit I do like the way they train these horses. Won a group 2 over 8f race before last!!
 
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And GB & Irish horses filling 2nd to 5th, with the first 6 home all beginning life on these shores.

Strange race, exciting but strange.

Williams gave Mount Athos a fantastic ride from that draw but the horse maybe had to use a bit too much energy early on.
 
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