Michael Avenatti

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Warbler

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Last week I went in search of a long horizon ante-post political bet on Michael Avenatti. As I scrolled down the lists and saw the 50's turning to 80's and finally into three figures I began licking my lips. A rick in the book I hoped, they've got him in at 100/1+, alas no, he hadn't been priced up. Now perhaps I should I have rung up and tried to see if someone would make me a price (probably standard 33/1 offer) but that would still be a decent bet

I'd been watching Avenatti's Twitterfeed from the Texas border, and it was becoming increasingly obvious that he was undergoing something of a conversion. Then today he tweets this

"Off topic – the candidate in 2020 better be a take no prisoners street fighter who is prepared to go 15 rounds in a VERY brutal campaign. It will be a cage match like no other in modern times. The future of the republic may depend on it."

I remember watching the Joe and Mika show a few months ago when Avenatti was asked to describe what sort of an Attorney he was. He responded by saying he was a "street fighter" who was happy to "get in the cage and scrap" and that only "one person would walk away". Despite a lot of his Twitter followers seemingly agreeing with his sentiment, only about 10% of them seem to recognise that Avenatti is potentially describing himself here as the ideal candidate.

Avenatti is a tough alpha male (the sort of candidate Americans responds to). Unlike Trump though, he has a heart and has chosen to position himself on the side of David against Goliath. I know nothing about his policy platform, so will reserve judgement, but if he makes a run at the Democrat nomination, he's credible, and doesn't carry the baggage of congress. He's also been one of the few people who Trump has avoided crossing swords with. So far he's seen off David Schwartz, dramatically cut Michael Cohen down to size, clearly bested Rudy Giuliani (who seems to have been withdrawn) and called out Sean Hannity (whose also chickened out of a man o mano with him). Come to think of it, the fast talking, foul mouthed 'Mooch' has also been pacified by him, as he looked palpably terrified to mix it

Worth a punt?
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Has never held any semblance of political office. Very hard to see him jumping straight into a nominee slot.....though he is maybe one for further down the line. Maybe a Governship or Mayoral run in one of the metropolises is more likely near-term?

BTW, Michael Cohen would probably have described himself in the exact same manner, until they booted his door down a few months back! :lol:
 
Neither had Trump, or Eisenhower

In terms of candidates in a primary, neither had Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina. Oprah Winfrey has her supporters too.

Any time spent in Congress seems to be a millstone round the neck of a candidate these days

Also, just who are the Democrat candidates. Joe Biden would lose. Bernie Sanders won't win the nomination. It leaves you with the likes of Karmala Harris (credible) Kirsten Gillibrand (opportunist) and possibly Corey Booker (hasn't trained on)

Bet365 have installed Avenatti at 125/1 this evening

One person did tweet him about the AG job in a Dem administration to which he simply responded "not interested in AG". That's a big statement for an Attorney to make. If he's not interested in the AG job then what the hell is he interested in?

Just checked the latest Twitter feed and for someone who opened up with "off topic" he's since added

"We have a street fighter in the White House who uses those skills to inflict harm on the most vulnerable. The answer is not more weak-kneed politicians or policy wonks. The answer is street fighters for good."

Avenatti has that most precious of commodities amongst Democrats, someone who hasn't been bullied by Trump, and someone who has taken the fight back to him and wobbled him
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Good luck with this fishing expedition.
Of course I would have said that about Trump before he ran.
Looking at the list on B365 Dwayne Johnson, Hillary Clinton and Jamie Dimon are all 50/1 :eek::eek:
 
For grins and giggles I put in a max bet on Avenatti and it came up with 5 quid max.
Not really worth talking about
 
Trump I’ll give you, Warbler, but Eisenhower? Slightly different context for him!

I also agree with you to an extent about the apparent dearth of credible Democrat candidates. If the max bet they’re prepared to lay is a fiver, you can’t do too much damage, if you want to follow your hunch.
 
Grasshopper said:
I also agree with you to an extent about the apparent dearth of credible Democrat candidates.
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This is why I think Avenatti is a credible choice.

Congress has a 13% approval rating. The Democrats hold very few governorships (record low). There's no one in the House whose likely to come forward, Tulsi Gabbard? it's not really a launchpad anyway. The Senate has a few more candidates but Gillibrand is really a younger version of Hillary and appeals to that blue dog tradition that the Bernie supporters and progressives failed to support. You could see an identical result. Trump would simply bully her out of it reminding everyone of how she used to come begging him for donations (he's done this already). Kamala Harris is their best bet, but you wouldn't be confident that she's going to beat Trump either

The Democrats need someone who can get Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan back, and that means someone who can connect outside of the coastal regions. I actually think Bernie could do those states actually, but there'd have to be a chance he loses a few elsewhere as they paint him to be a closet communist

The candidate also needs to be able to get the Bernie supporters who voted for Trump (about 10%) to stay at home at the very least. If they'd done that, Hillary's so-called blue wall would have held in the upper mid west (just). IF they begin voting Democrat again though, then Florida and North Carolina begin to go blue

The third demographic (that Trump somewhat improbably won) was white women, which is where Avenatti seems to have built a following. This group could finish the election at a stroke if they turn on Trump

I don't know anything about Avenatti's policy platform. I'm not aware that he's really expressed anything in this area, but he has adopted causes that suggest he's going to be more Main Street than Wall Street, and he's built up a legal portfolio of taking on big players on behalf of the little guy. He's not a Washington guy and that has to help in this day

In any case, who wouldn't want Stormy Daniels as VP!
 
brendanr said:
For grins and giggles I put in a max bet on Avenatti and it came up with 5 quid max.
Not really worth talking about
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After a minor questioning of their laying strategy over the phone, they let me have £20 @125/1. That price collapses the moment he announces (which is the bet at this stage). Trump was 100/1 before he came down the escalator

The Democrats have to put a candidate up, (presumably!) you can almost reverse engineer this. Who do they have? Another thing to potentially bear in mind is that Avenatti is going to have a few active cases running during the period of a false campaign which he's likely to win (if he can ever get the Trump team into a court). No Democrat has managed to stick a single score on the board to date. He's also getting more air time than any Democrat at the moment and will continue to do so. He's just revealed that he's turned down an appearance on Sean Spicers pilot show for $2500. I thought he take down of Tucker Carlson and Laura Ingram was funny. Basically he said he had no desire to help boost their ratings by appearing on their shows, but offered to appear on Hannity's instead (higher rated and Trump's 'go to' media taking head). Hannity chickened out
 
Assuming that it wasn't my £20 that's sent them scurrying :lol: Which one of you lot has backed him down to 66/1 this evening?
 
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Warbler said:
“When are you announcing your 2020 run?” HillReporter.com editor Brian Krassenstein asked.

“IF (big) he seeks re-election, I will run, but only if I think that there is no other candidate in the race that has a REAL chance at beating him. We can't relive 2016. I love this country, our values and our people too much to sit by while they are destroyed. #FightClub #Basta.”​

http://www.newsweek.com/michael-ave...y-beat-trump-2020-election-and-be-his-1008494
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Quoting Brian Krassenstein? Jesus wept. Twitter doesn't give him and his gimp twin brother a blue check mark for a reason.

Avenatti has less than a 0% chance of being thrDemocraric nominee. He has 680k Twitter followers and the over whelming majority of American people neither know who he is nor care who he is. Let's be realistic, being the loudest anti-Trump voice on the west coast in a crowded space. He's got some traction with the Trump haters on Twitter but that's about it. These people aren't exactly hard to win over. You have Trump and they're on your side.

The 2020 Democratic nominee will need to be a Bernie progressive most likely Bernie himself. There is an energized base for progressive policies, running just as the anyone but Trump candidate (like Hillary did) would be a big boost to Trumps re-election chances.
 
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It's hardly quoting Krassenstein is it? He asked the question. It's the answer that's more important

Avenatti has to climb certainly, there is a reason he was 125/1, but there aren't many others out there. He's also going to be in a position to start landing some blows on Trump before long too, something that no senator will be able to. America is still angry, they aren't on the verge of falling back on a Harris, Booker, or Gillibrand just yet
 
brendanr said:
Hilary was the worst possible messenger for "anyone but Trump".
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I don't disagree but Avenatti is like a watered down Trump with a few social polices and a lot less name recognition. He won't appease the Bernie wing of the party and he's in no way a movement. Far too many people occupying the anti-Trump space.
 
I think that's a misread. Avenatti is more likely to pick up the Bernie supporters than any of the establishment Democrats.

Avenatti, so far as we can establish from his broad policy ideas, is more left leaning than any of them with the exception of Bernie himself. Avenatti has adopted Bernie's signature policy of universal medicare for all regardless of pre existing conditions. He's also committed to introducing subsidy for higher education so as to make it affordable. He intends signing the Paris accords and for America to play a full part in the fight against climate change. He's also proposing some landmark ideas on separating corporate money from politics (good luck with that one!), but these are the sorts of things that Bernie's supporters have been rallying to. The only area I see in their respective platforms where there might some difference is in trade. I don't think Avenatti is quite so protectionist as Bernie, but he isn't a free trader either

Bernie's supporters are predominantly young and angry and bristling against an establishment order that they don't feel works for them. Avenatti is still an insurgent outsider candidate with attitude. I'm not sure that Bernie is going to run. He hasn't ruled it out, but hasn't really sent out the signals that he will either. He knows he's getting older, and he knows he'll have to pass the torch eventually. I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if Bernie endorsed Avenatti yet

Where Avenatti is going to struggle more is the urban blue dog Democrats. The Mika Brzezinski's of this world, who if she weren't born into a Democrat family would have been a natural Reagan conservative. These are the one's who believe that you need experienced career politicians etc and they have a bit of a whiff of elitism about them. This is the wing of the party that perhaps Kirsten Gillibrand represents most faithfully, although I'm of the view she's Hillary 2.0 and Trump would just run her over. Avenatti is going to struggle with this lot

One thing you do notice looking at his Twitter feed incidentally (and it sticks out a mile) is the amount of enthusiasm he seems to generate from white women. This is probably the single most critical constituency in 2020. About two thirds of Avenatti's followers seem to be white women, and that percentage rises when you look at the number that are seemingly gushing over him. Remember Trump narrowly won the white female vote in 2016. If a candidate can make inroads on this one (which has to be the most vulnerable part of his coalition) then he's got a problem
 
Warbler said:
I think that's a misread. Avenatti is more likely to pick up the Bernie supporters than any of the establishment Democrats.

Avenatti, so far as we can establish from his broad policy ideas, is more left leaning than any of them with the exception of Bernie himself. Avenatti has adopted Bernie's signature policy of universal medicare for all regardless of pre existing conditions. He's also committed to introducing subsidy for higher education so as to make it affordable. He intends signing the Paris accords and for America to play a full part in the fight against climate change. He's also proposing some landmark ideas on separating corporate money from politics (good luck with that one!), but these are the sorts of things that Bernie's supporters have been rallying to. The only area I see in their respective platforms where there might some difference is in trade. I don't think Avenatti is quite so protectionist as Bernie, but he isn't a free trader either

Bernie's supporters are predominantly young and angry and bristling against an establishment order that they don't feel works for them. Avenatti is still an insurgent outsider candidate with attitude. I'm not sure that Bernie is going to run. He hasn't ruled it out, but hasn't really sent out the signals that he will either. He knows he's getting older, and he knows he'll have to pass the torch eventually. I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if Bernie endorsed Avenatti yet

Where Avenatti is going to struggle more is the urban blue dog Democrats. The Mika Brzezinski's of this world, who if she weren't born into a Democrat family would have been a natural Reagan conservative. These are the one's who believe that you need experienced career politicians etc and they have a bit of a whiff of elitism about them. This is the wing of the party that perhaps Kirsten Gillibrand represents most faithfully, although I'm of the view she's Hillary 2.0 and Trump would just run her over. Avenatti is going to struggle with this lot

One thing you do notice looking at his Twitter feed incidentally (and it sticks out a mile) is the amount of enthusiasm he seems to generate from white women. This is probably the single most critical constituency in 2020. About two thirds of Avenatti's followers seem to be white women, and that percentage rises when you look at the number that are seemingly gushing over him. Remember Trump narrowly won the white female vote in 2016. If a candidate can make inroads on this one (which has to be the most vulnerable part of his coalition) then he's got a problem
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He has had to bring out a policy statement because he stands for nothing bar gaining media attention by being anti Trump. This won't win over progressive supporters never mind Trump voters. Did the last election not tell us that the electorate is tired of non entities like him? He stands for nothing but anti Trump.
 
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"One thing you do notice looking at his Twitter feed incidentally (and it sticks out a mile) is the amount of enthusiasm he seems to generate from white women. This is probably the single most critical constituency in 2020. About two thirds of Avenatti's followers seem to be white women, and that percentage rises when you look at the number that are seemingly gushing over him. Remember Trump narrowly won the white female vote in 2016. If a candidate can make inroads on this one (which has to be the most vulnerable part of his coalition) then he's got a problem"

What? Looking at Twitter you think women will vote for him yet the best pollsters in America missed how women would vote for Trump. Big essays don't hide bad ideas.
 
SlimChance said:
He has had to bring out a policy statement because he stands for nothing bar gaining media attention by being anti Trump. This won't win over progressive supporters never mind Trump voters. Did the last election not tell us that the electorate is tired of non entities like him? He stands for nothing but anti Trump.
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I think you've got a bad misread there

He's been forced/ persuaded (doesn't matter which) to outline some of his broad policy positions. Now he has to tread a bit of a fine line. Being seen to be starting a personal campaign for 2020 in the shadow of the mid-terms is something of a no/no so these statement can't really be detailed. That comes later when people start asking him questions like how is he going to pay for it? etc Now obviously that's the sort of exchange he wants to begin, because that starts to legitimise the ideas and starts a conversation etc. What he's done is draw up some thoughts which allows people to place him somewhere on the political spectrum by way of his influences.

It's perfectly obvious to anyone reading his 2 sides of A4 that he's on Bernie's platform. There isn't a lot between them in three of Bernie's touchstone policy areas like health, education, campaign finance reform. In addition there's overlap on other areas. The only area that appears to be a bit opaque is international trade. Sometime in 2019 Bernie Sanders and Michael Avenatti are going to need to have a chat if this continues

Bernie's base is worth about 30% of the Democrat caucus. That's enough to win early primaries in a crowded field (which is what they're expecting). It's the same thing that Trump benefited from in a field of 16. If you win those early primaries you get momentum, and as candidates begin to fall by the wayside your own vote starts to pick some of them up.

Most people's first exposure will be through the debates. There can be little doubt that Avenatti is articulate and a smooth talker. Provided he's able to demonstrate a command of the policy detail, he'll do well. Where he's going to be vulnerable is a tendency to talk about himself (not necessarily a barrier in American politics) and lose his temper. He's also going to need to survive some digging into his past which isn't squeaky clean

Avenatti is 100/1 with Ladbrokes, Bernie Sanders is 14/1 with Coral. Of the two, I'd say Avenatti is the more likely to run on that platform right now
 
The Sanders bandwagon whipped-up at their last election strikes me as similar to that of the Corbyn bandwagon whipped-up at ours: youngsters somewhat smitten by the (now) unusual sight of two ageing and greying leftists with a long history of activism taking on 'the establishment'

If both had donned berets we might now have President Sanders and Prime Minister Corbyn...possibly :)

My view is that their novelty will have worn off by the next elections and capricious, naiive youth will look elsewhere; where I've no idea

Sanders will be nearly 80 in 2020 won't he?
 
We live in a world now (again) where lying is the norm and where politicians are once again at the vanguard of this malevolent historical regurgitation.

The midterms are still 10 weeks away. Trump is drowning drip by drip in the stinking cesspool of his moral turpitude. The flailing is a dead give away. His base is what it is, not enough, especially in the face of the fierce headwinds, from energized progressives to retired admirals calling him out for the bum he is. Still, the so called disenfranchised whites in America aren't going to go quietly in the night.

These days American politics is more like the WWE on steroids, anything goes. I do however not see Sanders as a candidate, more like some sort of eminence grise for whoever makes the grade on the day.
 
Warbler said:
I think you've got a bad misread there

He's been forced/ persuaded (doesn't matter which) to outline some of his broad policy positions. Now he has to tread a bit of a fine line. Being seen to be starting a personal campaign for 2020 in the shadow of the mid-terms is something of a no/no so these statement can't really be detailed. That comes later when people start asking him questions like how is he going to pay for it? etc Now obviously that's the sort of exchange he wants to begin, because that starts to legitimise the ideas and starts a conversation etc. What he's done is draw up some thoughts which allows people to place him somewhere on the political spectrum by way of his influences.

It's perfectly obvious to anyone reading his 2 sides of A4 that he's on Bernie's platform. There isn't a lot between them in three of Bernie's touchstone policy areas like health, education, campaign finance reform. In addition there's overlap on other areas. The only area that appears to be a bit opaque is international trade. Sometime in 2019 Bernie Sanders and Michael Avenatti are going to need to have a chat if this continues

Bernie's base is worth about 30% of the Democrat caucus. That's enough to win early primaries in a crowded field (which is what they're expecting). It's the same thing that Trump benefited from in a field of 16. If you win those early primaries you get momentum, and as candidates begin to fall by the wayside your own vote starts to pick some of them up.

Most people's first exposure will be through the debates. There can be little doubt that Avenatti is articulate and a smooth talker. Provided he's able to demonstrate a command of the policy detail, he'll do well. Where he's going to be vulnerable is a tendency to talk about himself (not necessarily a barrier in American politics) and lose his temper. He's also going to need to survive some digging into his past which isn't squeaky clean

Avenatti is 100/1 with Ladbrokes, Bernie Sanders is 14/1 with Coral. Of the two, I'd say Avenatti is the more likely to run on that platform right now
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Where exactly do you think his support is going to come from? He's basically an unknown mouth piece. The only reason he has any relevance is because the media loves stories about people smacking Trump around the place. You find any support for him from progressive independent media.
 
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