Middle Park & Cheveley Park Stakes Group 1

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Race probably deserves it's own thread...

Poets Voice
Arctic
Showcasing
Awzaan
Radiohead
Showcasing
Alfred Nobel

Looks a really good, and really deep Middle Park renewal.

Poet's Voice definitely has the pace for this, in fact I think he will improve for the drop back to 6 furlongs.

Showcasing did it really well at York last time and probably sets the standard for this. I really like the Arcano form lines and he is probably the one that I would be interested to back if the Godolphin horse goes off favourite.

On breeding Arctic should handle and even improve for better ground but it is hard to believe a horse that can look at home in bog deep ground at The Curragh will be just as effective on good to firm ground at Newmarket. Pat Smullen gets the ride.

Awzaan looked good winning the Mill Reef but I am not sure that too much winning. Think it is between the Godolphin and Gosden horse with Showcasing my selection...lets hope they all line up.
 
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I take your point on the ground concern, its does put it in my mind that the horse went so well on heavy, but at the same time connections feel it will go better on a good surface and i just think he is a class act.
 
Having said all that i now see that Showcasing is in the race too, the other horse to have caught my eye this year, and the only Ante Post bet ive had all season.
 
Paddy Power go...

11/4 Awzaan
11/4 Showcasing
3/1 Poet's Voice
4/1 Arctic
9/1 Alfred Nobel
10/1 Radiohead
20/1 bar

Think Awzaan is too short...Dettori is really going to let Poet's Voice rip over this sort of trip but I think Showcasing will hold sway.

Paddy Powers have also priced up the Cheveley Park Stakes - really sweet on Special Duty at 11/4. Her trainer has a great record when coming over to the UK (has had a couple of winner of this race in the past?) and I was impressed with her last time out plus she represents the Arcano formline. Deserves to be favourite for this.
 
Cheveley Park Stakes with PP....

2/1 Lady Of The Desert
11/4 Special Duty
5/1 Sand Vixen
5/1 Song Of My Heart
6/1 Lillie Langtry
10/1 Misheer
16/1 Bar

I thought Lady Of The Desert's last win looked a bit strange at the time - so many of them were strung out with the washing from a long long way out. I think Special Duty should start favourite and is likely to on the day.
 
Lady of the Desert wasn't the only runner at York that seemed to benefit from racing close up by the stands rail. Noble Storm and Star Rover both won going that route whilst Benbaun's effprt in the Nunthorpe stands out compared to his other runs this year. Even so I think it's hard to knock her. That run looks better than Special Duty's to me. I'm ignoring the fact that the course record was apprently broken in the Morny because it looks extremely dodgy and they've finished in a heap. What price would Dolled Up be in this? She was just 2 necks behind Special Duty. Can't see I like the way Special Duty carrie her head either.
 
Galileo said:
I thought Lady Of The Desert's last win looked a bit strange at the time - so many of them were strung out with the washing from a long long way out. I think Special Duty should start favourite and is likely to on the day.
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The Lowther didn't look strange to me. LOTD was tremendously impressive and the time was excellent.
 
gus said:
The Lowther didn't look strange to me. LOTD was tremendously impressive and the time was excellent.
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Interesting Gus, all about opinions I guess. I just remember saying to myself half way through the race that so many of the horses were off the bridle far too early for my liking.
 
Will Lillie Langtry run in this? She is also entered in the fillies sales race on Saturday, it is 7f and will suit her better. Alfred Nobel is also entered in the colts sales race. May be the last chance for Danehill Dancer to pip Cape Cross for the sires title.
 
Galileo said:
Interesting Gus, all about opinions I guess. I just remember saying to myself half way through the race that so many of the horses were off the bridle far too early for my liking.
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It's all about opinions, as you say. I just thought the others were off the bridle and well strung-out for the simple reason that she was in a totally different league. The overall time compared very favourably with the sales race on the same day.
 
Certainly looks an intriguing renewal of the Middle Park, though I'm finding it very difficult to see an angle into it from a punting perspective at current prices.

As visually impressive as both Arctic and Awzaan have been, it's fairly tough to get a grip on what either have actually achieved in terms of form. Hard to be anything other than hugely impressed with the manner in which Arctic travelled through a bog in the Round Tower, but the runner-up's overall profile is beginning to look patchy, making the form difficult to assess with any conviction.

Angel's Pursuit and Quarrel (shaped as if would be seen to best effect over further) give the Mill Reef form a solid, though certainly not spectacular, look to it, though Awzaan was almost certainly value for a good deal more than a length and a quarter. Thought they went a fierce early pace in the conditions event Awzaan won at the July meeting and served the race up for the Johnston colt, though he showed a potent turn of foot that day as well.

Showcasing's Gimcrack form just about sets the standard in my book and, given that he still looked a shade green at York, taking a while to get himself organized and warm to his task before quickening in taking style, I wouldn't be surprised to see him progress substantially from that run. Poet's Voice looks solid as well; they couldn't go fast enough for him at York or Doncaster and the Champagne form in particular looks rock solid, with the drop back to six sure to suit.

In summary, I don't have a fecking clue! Looks a watching brief at current prices.
 
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Agree with you Trackside, looks difficult to solve.

If anything i'd want to take Showcasing on because Gosden is not exactly firing at the moment (1-30 in the last 14 days) and whilst I think the form is decent he will need to improve again to win this.

I like Awzaan a lot and he looks built for this trip and both the trainer and the man on top are on fire at the moment. Taking all factors into account he would just shade favouritism for me although i expect that Showcasing will go off favourite.

I'm a big fan of Poet's voice and think the Acomb is one of the strongest races of the year with the form being boosted every time one of the placed horses runs and the drop in trip will suit his hard pulling style. The stable are also in good form.

I can't get over excited by Arctic and at 4/1 would not be willing to take a punt that the ground is going to suit. Alfred Nobel however, looks overpriced to me. O'Brien normally sends one of, if not his best, to the national stakes and this colt took in the railway and phoenix en route... I'm not saying he will win but 9/1 could look a silly price afterwards.

If pressed i'd have an e/w bet on the O'Brien colt but would be wary of Poet's Voice and Awzaan.

Really good renewal though.. Best Middle Park in years.
 
I think Poet's Voice has the potential to be an absolute machine once he learns to settle a little more, though I would like to see him continue to race in the same front-running way. He's bigger than I thought at 3/1. I can see him staying a mile if he settles, and I would be disappointed if he doesn't turn out to be a really good horse. I can't understand why he is the same price as Artic, especially when you consider the ground.

Alfred Noble currently looks to be Ballydoyle's best horse for the Guineas (though I imagine it will probably change) and 9/1 is a crazy price. If he hadn't run in the National Stakes where ground and awful ride were against him. Great each way bet.
 
Poets Voice isn't bred to be a precocious, speedy type, he's bred to stay 1m+ as a 3-y-o and it's his eagerness to get on with things that is causing connections a problem. There's no guarantee he'll settle better back at 6f. I'd far rather have a horse like Showcasing who looks a more straightforward ride and has been running on strongly at the end of his races. I think he'll relish the stiff finish whilst Poet's Voice's probable exuberence will leave him vulnerable. Showcasing is potentially the Champion Juvenile for me and I think the Middle Park is the ideal scenario for him to show it.
 
I see where you are coming from, but breeding or not, and even if he learns to settle better, I simply can't see how Poet's Voice will stay further than a mile next year.
 
You are probably right that he will prove best up to 1m. But that's one of the reasons I have a bit of a downer on him. I don't like horses who's headtsrong tendencies stop them performing to pedigree.
 
Hamm said:
Alfred Noble currently looks to be Ballydoyle's best horse for the Guineas (though I imagine it will probably change) and 9/1 is a crazy price. If he hadn't run in the National Stakes where ground and awful ride were against him. Great each way bet.
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Didn't something like a bruised foot or injured hock (i can't remember where i read that but i'm sure i did) come to light to explain Alfred Nobel's run in the National Stakes? He certainly gave the impression that all wasn't well with him that day the way he hung across the track before weakening.
 
5 Middle Park declarations -

Arctic
Showcasing
Radiohead
Poets Voice
Awzaan


9 Cheveley Park declarations –

Habaayib
Lady Of The Desert
Misheer
Nimue
Puff
Sand Vixen
Shamandar
Song of My Heart
Special Duty
 
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