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Min
- Thread starter Wall E
- Start date
Perpetual
Senior Jockey
Hype. Last season & mentioned in every horses to follow book & season preview this year
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,014
Min is definitely priced-up on connections, but with good reason if you happen to be a bookie.
Neither Vautour nor Douvan had steller French form; the latter registering the only win between them (in the Provinces), before being purchased by the Mullins/Ricci axis. Given their record of apparently improving horses stones in a very short period of time, it's little wonder that Min is one layers don't want to take any chances with.
Neither Vautour nor Douvan had steller French form; the latter registering the only win between them (in the Provinces), before being purchased by the Mullins/Ricci axis. Given their record of apparently improving horses stones in a very short period of time, it's little wonder that Min is one layers don't want to take any chances with.
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But it can't happen every year and if you'd followed the market this time last year you wouldn't have backed the winner. You'd have lost your hard earned on the ill-fated Allez Colombieres.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,014
I agree it can't happen every year, Lee, but the Supreme Novices market is pretty-much always based on degree of guesswork at this stage of the season, simply because there hasn't been enough real racing evidence presented, to inform the market properly.
That being the case, it's quite logical for the bookies to take a cautious approach when it comes to Min, given connections ability to apparently improve horses massively, when they buy them out of low-profile French races.
That being the case, it's quite logical for the bookies to take a cautious approach when it comes to Min, given connections ability to apparently improve horses massively, when they buy them out of low-profile French races.
I'm not disagreeing with the reasoning Grass and if I were a bookie I'd be similarly wary but my point is that it's terrible value currently.
Mullins currently has 15 entered up for the Royal Bond, any of which would require utmost respect and then throw in a handful from each of Elliot and Meade plus a couple from Jessie and Vigil for Weld and right now at this stage you'd want bigger than 8/1 on him winning that race and even in the impossibly unlikely scenario that all of them stood their ground - and he were to win it regardless then you'd still have the likes of Moon Racer et al from this side of the water. Although I acknowledge at that point he'd look hard to beat come March, albeit he'd probably be c. even money.
Would I lay him any bigger ?. Probably not, as you say, based on past experiences but would I back him at 10/1 right now ?. No chance, especially not when I can get the same price about the seemingly progressive Josies Orders, who looks to only have one or two old timers to beat in the obstacle race.
Mullins currently has 15 entered up for the Royal Bond, any of which would require utmost respect and then throw in a handful from each of Elliot and Meade plus a couple from Jessie and Vigil for Weld and right now at this stage you'd want bigger than 8/1 on him winning that race and even in the impossibly unlikely scenario that all of them stood their ground - and he were to win it regardless then you'd still have the likes of Moon Racer et al from this side of the water. Although I acknowledge at that point he'd look hard to beat come March, albeit he'd probably be c. even money.
Would I lay him any bigger ?. Probably not, as you say, based on past experiences but would I back him at 10/1 right now ?. No chance, especially not when I can get the same price about the seemingly progressive Josies Orders, who looks to only have one or two old timers to beat in the obstacle race.
:lol:
Allez Colombieres was odds on in a grade 1 against Nichols Canyon first time over hurdles and Douvan was his lead horse... He must have been something special at home. Shame we never got to find out how good.
