Miss V Williams

Desert Orchid said:
While I think 100/1 was far too big for MM yesterday,
Click to expand...

That's the point surely. Perhaps, given it's recent form, it should have been 66/1 or maybe 50/1. But it's older form is there for all to see - previously recorded an RPR 7lbs higher than the mark it was running off. Any informed punter placing a bet would effectively have been betting not on the capability of the horse to outrun it's mark, but on the horse returning to the sort of form which enabled it to do so. Which we all know happens all the time.
 
Its form on Saturday is a good 10lbs (that's 20 lengths), possibly even more but I'll check when the form book intalment arrives on Thursday, ahead of anything it had previously achieved.

Possible explanations:

It improved for the extra trip.
It was always able to produce this sort of run but the trainer decided not to show it.
It was blood-boosted.
It was doped.

Should I do a poll?

Being a generous sort, I reckon option one is the most likely.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Its form on Saturday is a good 10lbs (that's 20 lengths), possibly even more but I'll check when the form book intalment arrives on Thursday, ahead of anything it had previously achieved.
Click to expand...

As you may recall, I gave up doing my own ratings several years ago (too much time for too little return! :D).

However, I note that the Racing Post have rated Cerium 137 for the race, which seems fair to me. Now, presumably I'm doing something wrong here, but as far as I can tell Mon Mome won by 18.5l (9lbs) and was carrying a further 9lbs more than Cerium. 137 + 18 is not the 163 the RP have rated it. It is, in fact, 155. Which, coincidentally, is exactly the mark that Mon Mome had previously registered as it's highest.

In fact, it seems to me, looking at some of the other ratings, that the RP have added 5-6lbs to the winning distance in order to get to their rating of 163.

So perhaps Mon Mome did not actually achieve anything that he hadn't previously done......
 
I think the RP are using a poundage of 0.9 lbs per length, rather than the 1lb per length they normally do.

Edit: or the 0.5lbs per length you're using :)
 
There were a number of raised eyebrows among the extended Orchid family when they saw I had Cerium not too far behind the top on Saturday.

This was based on 145 for the Gold Cup, which had My Will (172 for Cheltenham) almost top, so if Cerium ran to a similar figure on Saturday, Mon Mome will be on 163+ for Saturday, a good 8lbs higher than my highest previous mark for him. My Will will get 163, 9lbs off his Cheltenham run, which might be just about right given Ruby's post-race remarks about him not jumping well.

Comply Or Die gets 164+, up a few pounds from last year, State Of Play 158, some way below his best but he lost a lot of ground and impetus at the far end of the track on the second circuit.
 
When you see fairly large chunks looking to back one of Venetias late on its time to sit up and take notice.
Mon Mome certainly wasn't a plot horse.
 
Back
Top