chaumi
Well-known member
Potential bets today at Leopardstown, Kempton, Southwell, Wolves. Couple to watch at Cagnes. All noted on first scans early this morning.
As always, actual bets depend on prices nearer the off and a deeper analysis of other runners. Note: 'deeper analysis' in Chaumi World means 2-3 mins, maybe 4!
Several of these will be watchers. Several may be scrubbed/postponed for consideration another day. A few not noted yet might pop up as backable. Common sense says Kipp Kelly looks the nap at this stage.
Minella Sixo 2.25 Leopardstown Courtesy of Diamond Dan. For fun. ** Somehow managed to get 6th at a big price, after looking unlikely for much of the way.
Approaching Storm 12.52 Kempton Nick Gifford youngster. Extremely unlikely today, first go over hurdles. But one to watch. ** Went off 1000 and unsurprisingly was struggling from before halfway. She'll need a lot of time, most likely. Considered a small interest on AJ's Diamond at about 5.7 first 4, but ruled it out. Looks like a type Chris Gordon could do well with, and seems to be steadily improving. Ran well enough in 6th and noteworthy for a handicap.
Betgoodwin 2.02 Kem Chris Gordon novice. Half a dozen at least more likely on paper, but if he's massive in the 4 place market it might be worth a few pennies. **30s available first 4. Wasn't put into it in any way, looked like an educational run. I did think Step Ahead looked a potential false favorite - a big horse and not certain to handle Kempton. Don't let this mislead, Step Ahead will be a tool over fences, possibly ending up at the Festival one day.
Sage Green 2.35 Kem 2 mile C4 handicap. Sage did well for Anthony Charlton last year, goes for Syd Hosie with a FT TT and after a wind op. That might reset the counters. ** Ran well in 2nd to at least land a small 3 places bet, but hammered by the 95BSP winner (can't see any way I'd have found that, completely left field and no indicators!).
Snapaudaciaheros 3.17 Southwell Rebecca Menzies novice handicapper. This is a Class 5. Ran well enough in early bumpers 2024, should be heading towards the point of being competitive over hurdles. Will want somewhere near the 30s or + though to find out. **Mid 30s at the off looked fair, front rank and looking good two out but couldn't sustain it and ultimately just out of the first 4.
Island Run 3.42 Kempton Missed this on first scan, luckily Robi posted it. Missed the 25s/28s, though. Took around 20 early before it went even more blue.** Nowhere near the Newbury run, disappointing. May be worth another chance on a different track.
Beautiful Mess 3.50 Cagnes If up in the 50s+. **Just about made it to 50, small bet. Nowhere.
Royal Enclosure 4.25 Cagnes A look if up in the 80s. Keep an eye on Easily Convinced here. ** EC was actually too big at 185, not today. And RC didn't make it to high enough, but was well beaten anyway.
Phaedra 5.00 Wolves Interesting that Hannon has Lucas Murphy up, but this could go to any one of 10 **Missed the big prices on Phaedra and decided to leave it, weakened out of it anyway. But The Corporate Guy looked good enough at the odds - blew the start and had to do too much to get in full contention but got a one-length 3rd well clear of the rest. Should have won it running backwards.
Kipp Kelly 6.00 W May well be getting towards peak, could piss this. **Didn't, too slow away
Powerful Response 7.00 W Plenty of good Newcastle form. Should go well but fear won't be much over 6s. **Plenty of 8.2 and 8.4 available. But not good enough.
Green Team 7.30 W This is only a Class 5. Big enough if, but if Ian Williams has him straight he could go well here. Keep an eye on the Botti horse. ** Nothing from Green Team
Miss Ayala 8.00 W Down to last winning mark and well drawn. Expected to run well but will want double figures. ** Got 18s but awful race, nowhere near at the death.
*************
Not a good day all round, and the worst for about 10 days. But it had to happen sometime, not surprising.
The worst news, though...confirmed Live Conti doesn't run on Saturday. And is already a shit price for the County. I hope you lose it now, Skelton
As always, actual bets depend on prices nearer the off and a deeper analysis of other runners. Note: 'deeper analysis' in Chaumi World means 2-3 mins, maybe 4!
Several of these will be watchers. Several may be scrubbed/postponed for consideration another day. A few not noted yet might pop up as backable. Common sense says Kipp Kelly looks the nap at this stage.
Minella Sixo 2.25 Leopardstown Courtesy of Diamond Dan. For fun. ** Somehow managed to get 6th at a big price, after looking unlikely for much of the way.
Approaching Storm 12.52 Kempton Nick Gifford youngster. Extremely unlikely today, first go over hurdles. But one to watch. ** Went off 1000 and unsurprisingly was struggling from before halfway. She'll need a lot of time, most likely. Considered a small interest on AJ's Diamond at about 5.7 first 4, but ruled it out. Looks like a type Chris Gordon could do well with, and seems to be steadily improving. Ran well enough in 6th and noteworthy for a handicap.
Betgoodwin 2.02 Kem Chris Gordon novice. Half a dozen at least more likely on paper, but if he's massive in the 4 place market it might be worth a few pennies. **30s available first 4. Wasn't put into it in any way, looked like an educational run. I did think Step Ahead looked a potential false favorite - a big horse and not certain to handle Kempton. Don't let this mislead, Step Ahead will be a tool over fences, possibly ending up at the Festival one day.
Sage Green 2.35 Kem 2 mile C4 handicap. Sage did well for Anthony Charlton last year, goes for Syd Hosie with a FT TT and after a wind op. That might reset the counters. ** Ran well in 2nd to at least land a small 3 places bet, but hammered by the 95BSP winner (can't see any way I'd have found that, completely left field and no indicators!).
Snapaudaciaheros 3.17 Southwell Rebecca Menzies novice handicapper. This is a Class 5. Ran well enough in early bumpers 2024, should be heading towards the point of being competitive over hurdles. Will want somewhere near the 30s or + though to find out. **Mid 30s at the off looked fair, front rank and looking good two out but couldn't sustain it and ultimately just out of the first 4.
Island Run 3.42 Kempton Missed this on first scan, luckily Robi posted it. Missed the 25s/28s, though. Took around 20 early before it went even more blue.** Nowhere near the Newbury run, disappointing. May be worth another chance on a different track.
Beautiful Mess 3.50 Cagnes If up in the 50s+. **Just about made it to 50, small bet. Nowhere.
Royal Enclosure 4.25 Cagnes A look if up in the 80s. Keep an eye on Easily Convinced here. ** EC was actually too big at 185, not today. And RC didn't make it to high enough, but was well beaten anyway.
Phaedra 5.00 Wolves Interesting that Hannon has Lucas Murphy up, but this could go to any one of 10 **Missed the big prices on Phaedra and decided to leave it, weakened out of it anyway. But The Corporate Guy looked good enough at the odds - blew the start and had to do too much to get in full contention but got a one-length 3rd well clear of the rest. Should have won it running backwards.
Kipp Kelly 6.00 W May well be getting towards peak, could piss this. **Didn't, too slow away
Powerful Response 7.00 W Plenty of good Newcastle form. Should go well but fear won't be much over 6s. **Plenty of 8.2 and 8.4 available. But not good enough.
Green Team 7.30 W This is only a Class 5. Big enough if, but if Ian Williams has him straight he could go well here. Keep an eye on the Botti horse. ** Nothing from Green Team
Miss Ayala 8.00 W Down to last winning mark and well drawn. Expected to run well but will want double figures. ** Got 18s but awful race, nowhere near at the death.
*************
Not a good day all round, and the worst for about 10 days. But it had to happen sometime, not surprising.
The worst news, though...confirmed Live Conti doesn't run on Saturday. And is already a shit price for the County. I hope you lose it now, Skelton
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