• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

My All Weather Selections

D

davewatts50

Amateur Rider
Joined
Feb 2, 2026
Messages
68
Location
England
I’m happy that I got off to a good start on my debut day with a nice winner

4/2/2026

I’m really pressed for time tomorrow so I won’t be posting too much detail. If I get the chance I will try and put my case forward for why I’ve selected the following bets.

I’ve backed 4 horse tonight all of which are tracker horses.


Kempton 15:45 Fiddlers Green @ 9.5 EW

Newcastle 17:30 Pit Boss 4.5 Win

Newcastle 19:00 Arnhem 4.5 win
Newcastle 19:00 Hover On The Wing 13.0 EW

I’m struggling to understand why Fiddlers Green and Hover On The Wind are so big. I believe they are too big.

Good luck and I hope we have some winners tomorrow.
 
davewatts50 said:
I’m happy that I got off to a good start on my debut day with a nice winner

4/2/2026

I’m really pressed for time tomorrow so I won’t be posting too much detail. If I get the chance I will try and put my case forward for why I’ve selected the following bets.

I’ve backed 4 horse tonight all of which are tracker horses.


Kempton 15:45 Fiddlers Green @ 9.5 EW

Newcastle 17:30 Pit Boss 4.5 Win

Newcastle 19:00 Arnhem 4.5 win
Newcastle 19:00 Hover On The Wing 13.0 EW

I’m struggling to understand why Fiddlers Green and Hover On The Wind are so big. I believe they are too big.

Good luck and I hope we have some winners tomorrow.
Click to expand...

How do you find Newcastle compared to other courses? I reckon Frankel could have got beat at the track.
 
Slim said:
How do you find Newcastle compared to other courses? I reckon Frankel could have got beat at the track.
Click to expand...
Each of the AW courses have to be treated differently. They may have the same or similar surfaced but they have different configurations. I talk about each course in the book that I have recently written it’s all about “All Weather Sprint Races” and how I treat them each differently and why. Lots of nuggets of information.

I used to love Southwell sprints on Fibresand especially in the early days. It was very profitable once you understood what to look for in a horse for that course. It’s not the same now it’s Tapeta.

Newcastle is a tough place for front runners but they can win. It’s more about getting a midfield or prominent position and getting into a rhythm and having lots of finishing speed. It requires stamina and a jockey that doesn’t take a horse too far forwards or too far back for a strong closing type.
 
NUGGSY said:
Morning Dave , Are you going on RTV to push your Book :cool:
Click to expand...
No, although it’s nice that it’s selling and people appear to be enjoying it, I’m happy for it grow organically. It’s there if people are interested but I promise I won’t be banging on about it all the time.
 
And you, Dave - I’ve just bought your book.

I loved writing mine, and I’m writing my next one (ready for May, before the World Cup).
 
Len Madeiros said:
And you, Dave - I’ve just bought your book.

I loved writing mine, and I’m writing my next one (ready for May, before the World Cup).
Click to expand...
Thank you so much, it’s really appreciated. I will look forward to seeing and reading your book. Keep me updated on it.

I really hope you enjoyed reading my book. It’s been a long time coming with a number of stallings along the way. If you have any questions about the content then I’m happy to try and explain it. Throughout the book I’m trying to document the processes I go through when analysing a race and the data and tools I use.
 
I thought it was really interesting what you said earlier about the fibresand at Southwell. Talking Horses’ very own ‘Gigilo’ used to love that surface too.

Gigilo is our AW and summer flat legend.
 
ok managed to find 10 minutes.

Kempton 15:45

Fiddlers Green

Is an in form 7 year old gelding who’s a C&D winner. Last ran 28 days ago at Kempton finishing 2nd beaten by 2 lengths in a fast than average race for a Class 6 over 11 furlongs.

Last won 210 days ago and had 4 races since. Today, he’s up in a class 5 race over the same C&D as LTO. His highest winning mark is 56 and is 62 today. LTO he carried 9-11 minus the 5lbs claimer allowance. Today he’s upped in carries 8-13 minus the 5lbs claimer allowance.

He’s up against stronger opponents in this class 5 but he’s off a featherweight which I believe makes him dangerous.
 
I hated running horses on Fibresand. It made them very slow and plenty didn't enjoy it at all.
 
jinnyj said:
I hated running horses on Fibresand. It made them very slow and plenty didn't enjoy it at all.
Click to expand...
@jinnyj the fact you have run horse on Fibresand means you have a better understanding of the impact on the horses than most. Don’t get me wrong, I only loved it from a betting perspective as for quite a while I had an edge. The bookies along with the general public saw the AW as a poor man’s racing.
 
Last edited:
Oh absolutely. If you found a horse that liked the surface, it liked it. I just wasn't a fan.
 
Kempton 2.35
Portoro

I've watched a lot of races at Kempton but I've never ever seen a horse get abslutely no run uo the straight. The cut off normally gives a horse an easy out but he encountered a wall of 4 horses.
 
Danny said:
Rooting for you Saviour Dave as l fear after such a good start the masses will be following you in. There will be some rumbly tummies amongst the forumites if these 4 go down tonight.

No pressure like.
Click to expand...

No one is hungry enough to bet at Newcastle.
 
3.45 Kempo.
Most difficult on the card!
Something&Imperial Trooper, good draw, bad draw, claimer, experienced.
Win, Ew
Bradley did the kid on the turn in!
Harry the Child, good chance in the last if he can get out and lead from the front, drops in trip but we'll in on last year's form.
Cuban Fiesta EW
 
Last edited:
Danny said:
Rooting for you Saviour Dave as l fear after such a good start the masses will be following you in. There will be some rumbly tummies amongst the forumites if these 4 go down tonight.

No pressure like.
Click to expand...
Thankfully not all lost

1 winner
2 loser
1 NR

Newcastle 17:30 Pit Boss 4.5 Win and he did..,

Not the best day but slightly in profit..,
 
I’m happy with Roaring Ralph winning and I appreciate that the price shortened as friends of mine struggled to get the same price as me.

15:50 Southwell- Roaring Ralph win @ 4.3* 1st


*19:30 Southwell - Cill Mocheallog win @ 5.0* nowhere….

As for the 19:30 race I’m kicking myself. I knew I only had ‘Only Fools Rush In’ as a tracker horse but I debated too much and convinced myself that Cill Micheallog would win. I didn’t even do ‘Only Fools Rush In’ as an EW. Hindsight is a great thing but annoying when half the work had already been done in identifying a fit horse capable of winning.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_1015.png
    IMG_1015.png
    1.4 MB · Views: 12
Not the profit I was hoping for.

Thankfully Roaring Ralph won to keep the selections profitable on the forum.

I did ok with my private and friends selections. I had Studious 7.5 and Shaw Park 29 E/W hoping either one would beat Aisling Oscar. They didn’t and fair play to the winner. We still made a decent profit though. Tomorrow is another day.
 
Wolverhampton 13:22 COORAMOOK

She’s an Improving 4 year old filly. I believe she quite well handicapped. She last ran 34 days finishing 4th beaten by 2.35 lengths. That was at Lingfield in a Class 5 over 6 furlongs. Today she’s down in grade.

I’ve watch the race a couple of times now. It’s quite evident she just missed the break even though she had a pretty good draw. She was shuffled wide and stayed there for the duration of the race. On the bend she was forced very wide and had to make a charge from a very unfavourable position. She finished fairly strong and just missed out on the 3rd place.

The handicapper has kindly dropped her 1 lbs so today she runs off 62. This is her first run for Mark Loughnane and Paddy Bradley rides.

She went into my tracker for her 3rd at Wolves over 7F on 3/12/2025. That was a fairly strong race and she ran well just tiring towards the end. The drop to 6F today will suit her and she has a decent draw in 3. Normally, she breaks well and I’m looking at her LTO as an anomaly.

If she breaks well today she should get a good position and I believe she has a good EW chance at 20/1 or more.

E/W bet @ 20/1 BOG

I’m hoping to get a chance to look at a very tricky Newcastle card later.
 

Recent Blog Posts

Back
Top