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My All Weather Selections

Newcastle 19:30

I have two selections in this race. This is something I’m quite happy to do if I feel the prices are still giving me what I perceive as Value.

DOSMAN

He’s a lightly raced unexposed 5 year old gelding. He last ran 21 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 2 over the mile and finished a good third beaten by 1.75 lengths having found traffics trouble. He went into my tracker from that race.

Today, he drops into a class 4 over the same trip. He should find this a bit calmer and If he gets his act together I believe he has the ability to win this race.

DOSMAN Win bet @ 4.3 BOG

My other selection in this race is another tracker horse CALLIANASSA

She’s an inform 5 year old mare that is a C& D winner. She last won 195 days ago and has raced twice since. LTO was 48 days ago over C& D where she finished third beaten by 1.55 lengths in a class 4 race. It was this race that she went into my tracker.

Her highest winning mark is 78 and she races off 82 today. I believe she can out run her mark .

She is too big a price at 14/1 and I’ve backed her each way.

CALLIANASSA EW bet @ 13.0 BOG
 
davewatts50 said:
I would say all the answers are in my book, but I won’t…… a few beers for me now.
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I love the fact you wrote a book about your edges. It shows how people differ as that's the stuff of nightmares for Uncle smart arse. He'd be waking in the dead of the night with cold sweats if he felt one of the deadbolts (one of many) was loose on his underground bunker where the safe containing his edges are kept.
 
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Danny said:
I love the fact you wrote a book about your edges. It shows how people differ as that's the stuff of nightmares for Uncle smart arse. He'd be waking in the dead off the night with cold sweats if he felt one of the deadbolts (one of many) was loose on his underground bunker where the safe containing his edges are kept.
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I've honestly no idea why any winning punter would share their edges (many of which are ephemeral and need to be periodically reinvented anyway).

Book royalties are tiny compared to what you can win with an edge few know about and the market hasn't factored in and, narcissist though I am, I'd have to be some sort of ego maniac to want to lose a betting edge so I could have 15 minutes of fame bragging to everyone about how bloody clever I am.

Quietly winning perpetually, or boasting to a bunch of, let's be brutally honest, internet randoms somewhere like here and giving away my edges which then disappear as they follow me in and the market readjusts - that's not exactly a hard choice for me to make.

Danny clearly knows me far better than most here - he writes wittily, but with laser-focussed accuracy.

It's harder to win than ever, too many people know too much, the bookies are less tolerant of winning accounts than ever, exchange liquidity is in decline and the the black market bookies are a minefield.

Giving your edges away to one-dimensional user randoms just makes life even harder for yourself.

Maybe Dave is the exception - and he's certainly made a scintillating start here on every level (results, articulacy, you name it) you can think of - but, unless they value ego trips over their edges (and I actually don't in the cold light of day, well-deserved narcissist label notwithstanding) I can't think of why any sane winning punter would want to do it.
 
I agree with the principle entirely Ian. However betting forums would be ( probably are in the main) full of uninteresting recycled thoughts. That doesn't get better if nobody shared any original ideas.

I was lucky enough to have been part of a small forum in days gone by with a small handful of knowledgeable guys who shared ideas. More really brainstorming sessions. The key there probably was were the few that were there brought valuable contribution. We also had very little traffic so was fairly private in the main but also an even smaller private section for a while on, invite only basis. The great thing about being in an environment like that is you might have a good idea to start off with but others can add to it advance it and make it better.

TH obviously gets a lot more traffic and lurkers so that's a different story. However i still believe to some extent Dave could give every member the book and say this is a guarenteed way to win. I reckon only 10% might read it 1% would make an effort to apply it and about 0.001% would absorb it and try to add to it as those edges erode and take it to a higher level.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. There will be punters, lurkers and members a like who are still punting as they did 20-30 years ago. Plenty of smart people have passed through these forums and dropped golden nuggets, ideas, different methods. I've seen others on the forums who have been nowhere the same level dismiss said ideas and carry on regardless.

I understand not giving away edges Ian but usually the difference between success and failure will inevitabley come down to hard work.I can't remember who said it but "The harder i work the luckier i get is a great" quote. You could tell all you know Ian but how many would be prepared to put the hours in that you do ? I suppose if only a small percentage did, it would be enough to speed up the erosion of that edge so your point is still a valid one.

Obviously the counter view to what I've said is the people who believe that if hard work was the key to success then the Donkey would own the farm. People who are happy to piggy back off others and give nothing in return. Sometimes i wish i was like that but mentally I'm not wired that way it doesnt sit comfortable with me. Its why i always use the phrase about not needing a golden tit to cling to. The only things you'll ever feel proud of are the things you worked hardest to achieve. I used to begrudge that i had a difficult start in life, I was out of home before I'd turned 17 on my own, no support, no advice I just cracked on and learned the hard way (the very hard way), these days i see how weak people are that had everything handed to them and ' grateful I had things as tough as i did.

Anyway posting this on my break at work which is over no time to edit so hope that ramble is readable and makes some sort of sense.
 
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Hi Dave - I’m reading your book, and I’m punting with modest stakes, using your helpful tips on each course.

So far… two horses placed out of three at Southwell yesterday.

I will report back after Chelmsford this afternoon.

Many thanks,
Len
 
Len Madeiros said:
Hi Dave - I’m reading your book, and I’m punting with modest stakes, using your helpful tips on each course.

So far… two horses placed out of three at Southwell yesterday.

I will report back after Chelmsford this afternoon.

Many thanks,
Len
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Great stuff Len,

I’m really pleased you are enjoying the book. I hope it helps you to make some informed decisions.

My goal when I’m looking at AW race are as follows:

1. Ran in genuinely strong races.
2. Show positive pace / running style suitability.
3. Have speed figures to compete
4. Are in current form
5. Are not overbet

As you know from reading the book it explains how I use the metrics to determine the strength of the race and identify horses with good early pace. The pace maps will really help. Obviously, you can use online pace maps available. In always like to see current form. On the AW you often see horses turned out quickly. Important to me is getting a value price.

Even when you do all the hard work it doesn’t always mean you will get the desired result. The AW is full of handicap horses and trainers working their handicap mark.

Let me know how you get on.
 
I picked out the second and third in the 14:27, the 7f sprint; but in reality, there were a good few of the horses that had similar “led, prominent, in touch” profiles. So, I’m happy that the third drifted to 16/1.

Just nabbed the winner of the 16:07! Sorry, I sound like a terrible after-timer! However, I also had Respectable Jack in the same race.
 
Len Madeiros said:
I picked out the second and third in the 14:27, the 7f sprint; but in reality, there were a good few of the horses that had similar “led, prominent, in touch” profiles. So, I’m happy that the third drifted to 16/1.

Just nabbed the winner of the 16:07! Sorry, I sound like a terrible after-timer! However, I also had Respectable Jack in the same race.
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I had a look at Chelmsford this morning. I had two tracker horses running in the 15:37. Harlington and Jodphur Blue. The prices of both were too short for me so it was a no bet for me.

Harlington won @ 15/8 and Jodphur Blue was 3rd at 2/1.

Once you’ve read the book I would appreciate it if you could leave me a customer review. The reviews help with the Amazon algorithms and give other confidence that it’s worth the purchase.

Cheers Dave
 

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davewatts50 said:
I had a look at Chelmsford this morning. I had two tracker horses running in the 15:37. Harlington and Jodphur Blue. The prices of both were too short for me so it was a no bet for me.

Harlington won @ 15/8 and Jodphur Blue was 3rd at 2/1.

Once you’ve read the book I would appreciate it if you could leave me a customer review. The reviews help with the Amazon algorithms and give other confidence that it’s worth the purchase.

Cheers Dave
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No problem, Dave. I know the worth of an Amazon review!
 
davewatts50 said:
I had a look at Chelmsford this morning. I had two tracker horses running in the 15:37. Harlington and Jodphur Blue. The prices of both were too short for me so it was a no bet for me.

Harlington won @ 15/8 and Jodphur Blue was 3rd at 2/1.

Once you’ve read the book I would appreciate it if you could leave me a customer review. The reviews help with the Amazon algorithms and give other confidence that it’s worth the purchase.

Cheers Dave
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I’ve now added a review, Dave.
 

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