• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

My All Weather Selections

Wolverhampton 15:55

I have gone through the runners and narrowed it down to two horses Bomb Squad 3.0 who narrowly missed out. The other one is Invincible Melody 3.5 who ran yesterday finishing 5th. The prices are too short to play both and although I think Bomb Squad just edges it, the fact Invincible Melody ran yesterday concerns me.

No Bet for me.


Wolverhampton 17:30
The other race I’m interested in is the 17:30. I like 3 in this race. Alondra (5.5), Beaumadier (5.5) and Basholo (17).

Alondra
I liked Alondra LTO finished 3rd @ 33/1 ran well prior to that at Wolves but had a hard day being bashed about and blocked at vital times. She a 3y old filly who is certainly open to improvement. The only negative that is bothering me is she has been off since the 5th of December. Scott Dixon’s yard are bang in form so I’m guessing she’s had a set back and is ready now. She looks well handicapped.

Beaumadier is certainly of interest the gelding ran well LTO at Lingfield with Hollie Doyle in the plate. Today, he has Billy Loughnane riding for his Dad. He’s drawn in 2 and has decent early pace and should get a good position into the bend.

Basholo ran well at Wolves back in November winning at 28/1 she has ran twice since in class 5s and done ok but more aimed I’d guess at getting the handicap down. Drops back to Cls 6. She’s drawn well in 4 and has previously shown early speed. If she pings out the stalls and gets a good early position she could well be in with a shout.

This is a tricky little race but one that offers some value.

I think she will be about 16/1 possible Ew.

Alondra win bet @ 5.5 Bog

Basholo EW @ 17.0 BOG
 
Hi Dave - I’ve concentrated on the two 6f races, the 7:00 and 7:30.

Based on an approximation of what I should be looking for - and without wishing to reveal all, because your book is out there for a tenner - I have gone in, thus:

7:00 - Piperstown win at 11/4; She Went Woosh ew at 16/1

7:30 - Some Nightmare win at 9/2; Symbol of Hope ew at 40/1.

Good luck, Dave.
 
Len Madeiros said:
Hi Dave - I’ve concentrated on the two 6f races, the 7:00 and 7:30.

Based on an approximation of what I should be looking for - and without wishing to reveal all, because your book is out there for a tenner - I have gone in, thus:

7:00 - Piperstown win at 11/4; She Went Woosh ew at 16/1

7:30 - Some Nightmare win at 9/2; Symbol of Hope ew at 40/1.

Good luck, Dave.
Click to expand...
I think 7:00 you have two decent selections. She went Woodhall is a big price. I think Beauzon might feature if he gets over from the wide draw
 
davewatts50 said:
Wolverhampton 15:55

I have gone through the runners and narrowed it down to two horses Bomb Squad 3.0 who narrowly missed out. The other one is Invincible Melody 3.5 who ran yesterday finishing 5th. The prices are too short to play both and although I think Bomb Squad just edges it, the fact Invincible Melody ran yesterday concerns me.

No Bet for me.


Wolverhampton 17:30
The other race I’m interested in is the 17:30. I like 3 in this race. Alondra (5.5), Beaumadier (5.5) and Basholo (17).

Alondra
I liked Alondra LTO finished 3rd @ 33/1 ran well prior to that at Wolves but had a hard day being bashed about and blocked at vital times. She a 3y old filly who is certainly open to improvement. The only negative that is bothering me is she has been off since the 5th of December. Scott Dixon’s yard are bang in form so I’m guessing she’s had a set back and is ready now. She looks well handicapped.

Beaumadier is certainly of interest the gelding ran well LTO at Lingfield with Hollie Doyle in the plate. Today, he has Billy Loughnane riding for his Dad. He’s drawn in 2 and has decent early pace and should get a good position into the bend.

Basholo ran well at Wolves back in November winning at 28/1 she has ran twice since in class 5s and done ok but more aimed I’d guess at getting the handicap down. Drops back to Cls 6. She’s drawn well in 4 and has previously shown early speed. If she pings out the stalls and gets a good early position she could well be in with a shout.

This is a tricky little race but one that offers some value.

I think she will be about 16/1 possible Ew.

Alondra win bet @ 5.5 Bog

Basholo EW @ 17.0 BOG
Click to expand...
Great work, Dave!
 
Len Madeiros said:
Hi Dave - I’ve concentrated on the two 6f races, the 7:00 and 7:30.

Based on an approximation of what I should be looking for - and without wishing to reveal all, because your book is out there for a tenner - I have gone in, thus:

7:00 - Piperstown win at 11/4; She Went Woosh ew at 16/1

7:30 - Some Nightmare win at 9/2; Symbol of Hope ew at 40/1.

Good luck, Dave.
Click to expand...
Poor. But I shall return!
 
Glad to see another decent priced winner go in. Not sure what the P&L is for my selections since I started posting but my betting bank has benefited. This forum for me has been like finding and wearing your lucky pants. I do think luck plays it’s part, however you still need to put the work in to get the rewards.

Newcastle 16:45

Interesting little 3year old class 6 handicap over 1M 4F. There are 6 runners but it looks like a 3 horse race to me. The three contenders in my eyes are Wicksey, Lord Mayor and Trust No One.

Wicksey is a 3Year old gelding and the current favourite having won well last time out at Newcastle over 1M 2F beating Trust No One by 2.25 lengths. His race metrics look strong and at this point I can’t see a reason to believe that form will be reversed today. He’s obviously a big player in this race.

Lord Mayor is 3 year old colt trained by Andrew Balding. He last ran 24 days ago finishing 3rd LTO at Lingfield in a class 5 race over 1M 2F by 1.75 lengths. The race metrics show this was a strong run race. He lost to two good horses from the Varian and Johnstone stables.

Today, he’s dropping into a class 6 race over 1M 4 F. He’s raced 4 times and is yet to win a race. The fact that Wicksey has already won a race at the course is good reason for why he is the current favourite. However, we don’t know how he will handle the increase in distance. This might be the reason why Trust No One’s owners and trainer feel it’s worth having another crack at him.

For me there is a very positive factor in this race and that is Andrew Balding has chosen to bring the horse to Newcastle. It’s a long journey and there are plenty of races closer to home he could run in. Andrew Balding has a very good record at Newcastle. In the past two years he’s had 107 runners with 34 winners for a strike rate of 32% which is very impressive based on the number of runners. What is even more impressive is when Jason Watson rides for him at Newcastle. They have combined 16 times in the past two years and won 8 of the races for an incredible 50% strike rate.

Wicksey is trading at around 2.4 and Lord Mayor is at 5.0 over double the price. I feel there is little between them but at the prices I have to go for Lord Mayor.

Lord Mayor win bet @ 5.0 BOG
 
I'd like to know why Lord Mayor was pulled out of the race at Newcastle that Wicksey won.

Non-runners: Lord Mayor (vet's certificate, other)
 
Dave - I see that Beauzon, last night’s very impressive winner at Wolverhampton, is out again today in the 3:18 at Lingfield. Two similarish tracks, but less of a straight for something else to catch him. I’m assuming he makes all, like he did last night.
 
davewatts50 said:
Newcastle 19:30

I have two selections in this race. This is something I’m quite happy to do if I feel the prices are still giving me what I perceive as Value.

DOSMAN

He’s a lightly raced unexposed 5 year old gelding. He last ran 21 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 2 over the mile and finished a good third beaten by 1.75 lengths having found traffics trouble. He went into my tracker from that race.

Today, he drops into a class 4 over the same trip. He should find this a bit calmer and If he gets his act together I believe he has the ability to win this race.

DOSMAN Win bet @ 4.3 BOG

My other selection in this race is another tracker horse CALLIANASSA

She’s an inform 5 year old mare that is a C& D winner. She last won 195 days ago and has raced twice since. LTO was 48 days ago over C& D where she finished third beaten by 1.55 lengths in a class 4 race. It was this race that she went into my tracker.

Her highest winning mark is 78 and she races off 82 today. I believe she can out run her mark .

She is too big a price at 14/1 and I’ve backed her each way.

CALLIANASSA EW bet @ 13.0 BOG
Click to expand...
Great pick Callianassa
 
Len Madeiros said:
Dave - I see that Beauzon, last night’s very impressive winner at Wolverhampton, is out again today in the 3:18 at Lingfield. Two similarish tracks, but less of a straight for something else to catch him. I’m assuming he makes all, like he did last night.
Click to expand...
He drawn in 4 with good early speed. He will have competition from other early pace horse in low draws. If he gets the position to the first bend he has every chance. Top jockey and bang in form the price is too short for me. But yes every chance.
 
Lingfield 3.48

Kate O’Riley ran better than the bare result. Held up and travelling noticeably well until the pace dropped mid-race, meaning she was widest and well back turning for home. She didn’t beat many home but was not beaten far, and on a less sharp track, getting another couple of pounds back from the handicapper, she can go close next time.
 
davewatts50 said:
Glad to see another decent priced winner go in. Not sure what the P&L is for my selections since I started posting but my betting bank has benefited. This forum for me has been like finding and wearing your lucky pants. I do think luck plays it’s part, however you still need to put the work in to get the rewards.

Newcastle 16:45

Interesting little 3year old class 6 handicap over 1M 4F. There are 6 runners but it looks like a 3 horse race to me. The three contenders in my eyes are Wicksey, Lord Mayor and Trust No One.

Wicksey is a 3Year old gelding and the current favourite having won well last time out at Newcastle over 1M 2F beating Trust No One by 2.25 lengths. His race metrics look strong and at this point I can’t see a reason to believe that form will be reversed today. He’s obviously a big player in this race.

Lord Mayor is 3 year old colt trained by Andrew Balding. He last ran 24 days ago finishing 3rd LTO at Lingfield in a class 5 race over 1M 2F by 1.75 lengths. The race metrics show this was a strong run race. He lost to two good horses from the Varian and Johnstone stables.

Today, he’s dropping into a class 6 race over 1M 4 F. He’s raced 4 times and is yet to win a race. The fact that Wicksey has already won a race at the course is good reason for why he is the current favourite. However, we don’t know how he will handle the increase in distance. This might be the reason why Trust No One’s owners and trainer feel it’s worth having another crack at him.

For me there is a very positive factor in this race and that is Andrew Balding has chosen to bring the horse to Newcastle. It’s a long journey and there are plenty of races closer to home he could run in. Andrew Balding has a very good record at Newcastle. In the past two years he’s had 107 runners with 34 winners for a strike rate of 32% which is very impressive based on the number of runners. What is even more impressive is when Jason Watson rides for him at Newcastle. They have combined 16 times in the past two years and won 8 of the races for an incredible 50% strike rate.

Wicksey is trading at around 2.4 and Lord Mayor is at 5.0 over double the price. I feel there is little between them but at the prices I have to go for Lord Mayor.

Lord Mayor win bet @ 5.0 BOG
Click to expand...
The only bit I got right was it was a 3 horse race. I just got the order wrong.

I backed Wylde Bill earlier in the day so the win in that has level things up.

I have one more race of interest tonight. I’ve backed two horses in it. Newcastle 17:47. I have

Mademoiselle Belle @ 4.0 to win

The Tunguska Event @ 8.5EW

That’s me done for the day then
 

Recent Blog Posts

Back
Top